Comments on: Who’s Closing for the Twins in 2011?

By: James

James — Tue, 26 Oct 2010 01:53:32 +0000

I guess I got carried away and went off topic a bit, but I do thing that Crain and Guerrier’s future with the Twins are tied to each other. One will be back, the other wont.

As for future closer, Nathan gets his job back, and if he cant go, Capper will get it

By: Jim Crikket

Jim Crikket — Mon, 25 Oct 2010 18:23:38 +0000

Thanks for the comment, James. I didn’t bring Shaggy in to the discussion because, right or wrong, I don’t consider him part of the mix as a potential closer in 2011. I was going to address him in a separate post, but what the heck, let’s do it here.

What makes Guerrier’s case interesting is that I believe he’s a Type A free agent. This means that if the Twins DO offer arbitration and he rejects it, the Twins will get two compensation picks if he signs with someone else. I think that’s more value than having him in the pen and more than he would bring in a trade. On the other hand, Type A middle relievers have been faring pretty poorly on the free agent market the past couple of years (because they cost the signing team a valuable draft pick), so there’s a pretty reasonable chance Guerrier might decide to accept the arbitration offer from the Twins because it may just result in a better payday than free agency would.

Crain projects as a Type B free agent, so the Twins would get just a single “sandwich” pick if he rejects arbitration and signs elsewhere… and would be more attractive to other teams than Guerrier since signing Crain wouldn’t cost them a draft pick.

But to get those compensation picks for either pitcher, the Twins have to offer arbitration. Since they can’t wait for one guy to accept/reject before offering to the other, there’s at least some chance that either (or both) might accept. The result would be that the Twins could be stuck with up to $9 million in salary going to these guys PLUS the $20+ million they’ll be paying Capps and Nathan.

It’s going to make for some tough decisions on Bill Smith’s part.

By: James

James — Mon, 25 Oct 2010 17:49:21 +0000

I think you are missing something in your formula…Matty G. Both Crain and Matty are arb-elg., and the Twins cant keep both. Matty, for as awesome as he is, is pretty redundant in the Twins system (guys who can go multiple innings and dont strike anyone out, get some ground balls: Manship, Burnett, Duensing (if he is not in the starting rotation), Rauch (if he is still with the team))
While Crain stands out on the relief staff because he is a guy who can throw hard and maybe strike a guy or two out in his appearance