It looks like the chart is pro-rating whatever bonus was paid. I don’t think Casilla is going to get $2.5 million. You don’t triple your salary by playing less than 100 games on a team that lost 99 games. Especially when you didn’t play all that well.

I used 500K for Valencia and $2.5 mil for Casilla (the number the TwinsCentric crew projected)

Player 2012 contract
Mauer 23000000
Morneau 14000000
Nathan 2000000 buyout
Pavano 8500000
Baker 6500000
Liriano 5500000 estimated
Blackburn 4750000
Nishioka 3000000
Slowey 3500000 estimated
Span 3000000
Casilla 1250000 estimated
Perkins 1500000 estimated
Duensing 1000000 estimated
Mijares 800000 estimated
Valencia 450000
Butera 450000
Hughes 450000
Swarzak 450000
Revere 450000
Plouffe 450000
Doumit 3000000
Carroll 2750000

Total 86750000

(and I did not have Carroll in the previous estimation)

How did you get there?
Mauer 23
Morneau 14
Doumit 3
Nishioka 3
Span 3
Carroll 2.75
Casilla ?
Valencia ?

Do you really think Valencia and Casilla are going to cost over $4 million? I don’t.

Valencia is going to get about $.5 million. I don’t think an arbitrator is going to give Casilla $3.5 million and make him the team’s third highest paid position player. He got less than $1 million in his first year of arbitration and I am not sure he raised his value at all last year given the Twins’ record.

Your guess on the pitching seems high too. It will depend on how much Liriano, Perkins, Mijares and Slowey get in arbitration, assuming its offered. Again, with the Twins poor record, it seems unlikely they are going to get big raises. You seem to have them getting almost $14 million. That’s $3.5 million a piece. I think Liriano is the only one who will reach that level.

More to the point, that $100 million figure was an off-the-cuff comment by Terry Ryan at his introductory news conference, not a firm number. Even within that number, it looks to me like the Twins have plenty of money for a closer and right fielder.

The budget may be a real constraint on adding a starter and proven arms for the bullpen. But I don’t think that is going to be the biggest issue.

I think that there is no way that Ryan gives up on Plouffe. Very similar situation with Cuddyer (1st round pick, sucked on the IF) who got a chance in same situation. I think that Plouffe will figure in the OF/DH situation in 2012.

As far as the rotation goes (and the spending limits) the team has about $13.5 M “invested” on Pavano and Blackburn. If they find takers for those 2, a lot will change. Despite that, the rotation will probably be Baker, Liriano, Slowey (in alphabetical order – btw did you hear any of the anti-Slowey propaganda of the Twins after BS left?) and then maybe a new person or Pavano (hope not) and Swarzak/Hendricks/De Vries (if still around). Different rotation and the key is to have them all healthy and for Gardy to not cut his nose to spite his face (see: Slowey)

A quick calculation with the current commitments for 2012 has the payroll at $84M (incl. Doumit and expected arbitration payouts for all per MLB trade rumors.) That’s $16M. Plenty to sign someone like Broxton to an incentive ladden contract, to sign Andrew Jones to add to the OF/DH pool and get a couple real relievers. Frankly I see trades happening though…

I am pretty optimistic for 2012 (or as optimistic as I can be with Gardenhire and his buddies still around…)

I’m also not too concerned about the 40-man roster spots since the Twins have demonstrated that they’re more than willing to risk sending players through waivers, if necessary, to make room for acquisitions. Doesn’t make some people happy when they do that, but they do it anyway.

As for Revere, Ryan’s comments earlier this month that he’s not planning to trade either Span or Revere certainly indicate he’d like to put them in the same OF and I agree that should help the pitchers’ ERAs. Despite that, I don’t believe Revere’s offensive numbers warrant an assumption that he should be on the Opening Day roster as long as Span is still around. With Span hitting lead off, Carroll 2nd and Casilla 9th, Revere’s unproven bat (and questionable on-base skills) doesn’t have a clear spot in the batting order. Again, I’m not saying it would be a terrible thing, just that I’m not all that certain it will happen.

If you project Ryan spending even $4 million on a closer and even if you hand Revere a roster spot for minimum wage, that leaves very little to spend on the remaining players. Sounds like a lot of Red Wings and Rock Cats (including Hughes and Plouffe) wearing Twins uniforms, to me… and pretty much the same group of starting pitchers that filled the rotation a year ago.

They may add a starting pitcher and some additional options for the bullpen. And a couple of those may still be works in progress after the new year. In fact, the bullpen will likely still be a work in progress come the July trading deadline.