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	<title>Comments on: Looking for Breakout Seasons</title>
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	<link>http://knuckleballsblog.com/2012/03/12/looking-for-breakout-seasons/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=looking-for-breakout-seasons</link>
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		<title>By: Craig H</title>
		<link>http://knuckleballsblog.com/2012/03/12/looking-for-breakout-seasons/#comment-12492</link>
		<dc:creator>Craig H</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 14 Mar 2012 15:54:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://knuckleballsblog.com/?p=11128#comment-12492</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Thanks Jim. I&#039;m on board. I&#039;m not really a numbers cruncher, but I want to say that Torii figured it out at the plate around age 26.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thanks Jim. I&#8217;m on board. I&#8217;m not really a numbers cruncher, but I want to say that Torii figured it out at the plate around age 26.</p>
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		<title>By: Jim Crikket</title>
		<link>http://knuckleballsblog.com/2012/03/12/looking-for-breakout-seasons/#comment-12459</link>
		<dc:creator>Jim Crikket</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 12 Mar 2012 22:54:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://knuckleballsblog.com/?p=11128#comment-12459</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Obviously, I don&#039;t share your opinions, TT, but thank you again for sharing them.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Obviously, I don&#8217;t share your opinions, TT, but thank you again for sharing them.</p>
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		<title>By: TT</title>
		<link>http://knuckleballsblog.com/2012/03/12/looking-for-breakout-seasons/#comment-12458</link>
		<dc:creator>TT</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 12 Mar 2012 22:38:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://knuckleballsblog.com/?p=11128#comment-12458</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&quot;the point is that it’s a relatively rare exception that you see a Twins player starting his service clock at 21-22 years old. Even 23 is more the exception than the rule.&quot;

You can count the guys who are playing regularly in the big leagues at 21 on one hand.  In fact, there were only 8 major league players who were 23 or younger and played in more than 100 games last year, including Ben Revere.  There were 12 pitchers 23 and under who got more than 100 IP.  

Its not that the Twins are slow to promote players. Its that players are rarely ready to play in the big leagues at that age. And if they are, there still needs to be an opening for them. 

&quot;step up their games to a level where they can be considered among the best at their position in the AL.&quot;

None of the guys you listed are likely going to do that.  Plouffe and Revere do have the upside to get there. Its not likely this year. But neither is it likely Valencia is going to become one of the better third basemen in the league. Or that Liriano is going to become an elite pitcher and start pitching deep into games. Or that Span is suddenly going to add home run power or improve his range to match Revere&#039;s.  Casilla is the only one of those guys who might have that kind of upside, if he can just stay healthy for a year.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;the point is that it’s a relatively rare exception that you see a Twins player starting his service clock at 21-22 years old. Even 23 is more the exception than the rule.&#8221;</p>
<p>You can count the guys who are playing regularly in the big leagues at 21 on one hand.  In fact, there were only 8 major league players who were 23 or younger and played in more than 100 games last year, including Ben Revere.  There were 12 pitchers 23 and under who got more than 100 IP.  </p>
<p>Its not that the Twins are slow to promote players. Its that players are rarely ready to play in the big leagues at that age. And if they are, there still needs to be an opening for them. </p>
<p>&#8220;step up their games to a level where they can be considered among the best at their position in the AL.&#8221;</p>
<p>None of the guys you listed are likely going to do that.  Plouffe and Revere do have the upside to get there. Its not likely this year. But neither is it likely Valencia is going to become one of the better third basemen in the league. Or that Liriano is going to become an elite pitcher and start pitching deep into games. Or that Span is suddenly going to add home run power or improve his range to match Revere&#8217;s.  Casilla is the only one of those guys who might have that kind of upside, if he can just stay healthy for a year.</p>
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		<title>By: Jim Crikket</title>
		<link>http://knuckleballsblog.com/2012/03/12/looking-for-breakout-seasons/#comment-12453</link>
		<dc:creator>Jim Crikket</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 12 Mar 2012 18:08:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://knuckleballsblog.com/?p=11128#comment-12453</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[As per usual, TT, we&#039;ll have to just agree to disagree.

We obviously have different definitions of &quot;breakout season.&quot; As I mentioned in the post, I&#039;m looking for guys who step up their games to a level where they can be considered among the best at their position in the AL. Revere and Plouffe almost certainly won&#039;t be doing that. 

The players I mentioned are hitting their prime productivity years and while I have varying degrees of confidence (or lack thereof) in their ability to take that next step, they all have enough time in the Big Leagues that they could step up and make people notice them... and I believe it&#039;s important to the Twins that at least a couple of them do exactly that.

I also never suggested the Twins don&#039;t bring players up until they&#039;re 26 years old. I indicated that the Twins don&#039;t often see players debut until they&#039;re at least 24 years old. I suppose not everyone would consider that being later than other teams, but the point is that it&#039;s a relatively rare exception that you see a Twins player starting his service clock at 21-22 years old. Even 23 is more the exception than the rule.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As per usual, TT, we&#8217;ll have to just agree to disagree.</p>
<p>We obviously have different definitions of &#8220;breakout season.&#8221; As I mentioned in the post, I&#8217;m looking for guys who step up their games to a level where they can be considered among the best at their position in the AL. Revere and Plouffe almost certainly won&#8217;t be doing that. </p>
<p>The players I mentioned are hitting their prime productivity years and while I have varying degrees of confidence (or lack thereof) in their ability to take that next step, they all have enough time in the Big Leagues that they could step up and make people notice them&#8230; and I believe it&#8217;s important to the Twins that at least a couple of them do exactly that.</p>
<p>I also never suggested the Twins don&#8217;t bring players up until they&#8217;re 26 years old. I indicated that the Twins don&#8217;t often see players debut until they&#8217;re at least 24 years old. I suppose not everyone would consider that being later than other teams, but the point is that it&#8217;s a relatively rare exception that you see a Twins player starting his service clock at 21-22 years old. Even 23 is more the exception than the rule.</p>
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		<title>By: TT</title>
		<link>http://knuckleballsblog.com/2012/03/12/looking-for-breakout-seasons/#comment-12451</link>
		<dc:creator>TT</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 12 Mar 2012 17:45:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://knuckleballsblog.com/?p=11128#comment-12451</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&quot;The Twins are notorious for bringing their minor league prospects along slowly&quot;

This is an urban legend among Twins fans. If you look at the Twins players, very few of them started their major league careers at age 26 and older. Last year&#039;s players 27 and younger:

27 - Span, Liriano, Slowey, Capps
26 - Valencia, Casilla, Nishioka, Hughes, Mijares
25 - Plouffe, Young
24 - Tosoni
23 - Revere, Burnett

Where are the &quot;prospects brought along slowly&quot;? You could make a case for Perkins, but he was in the starting rotation at 25, as was Baker. Blackburn was there at 26. Duensing, and maybe Hughes,  is really the only guy on the team you can 
argue was not given a major league spot before age 26. 

Guys like Duensing, Blackburn, Liriano and Valencia certainly can improve a lot on last year. But they are past the point of having &quot;breakouts&quot;.  They are more like Glen Perkins, guys who might again have a season that reflects their talent.

Ben Revere and Trevor Plouffe are really the only guys who are at all likely to have breakout seasons. And they aren&#039;t going to put together big  years that would rival the improvements needed over last year from  Mauer, Morneau, Baker and Span.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;The Twins are notorious for bringing their minor league prospects along slowly&#8221;</p>
<p>This is an urban legend among Twins fans. If you look at the Twins players, very few of them started their major league careers at age 26 and older. Last year&#8217;s players 27 and younger:</p>
<p>27 &#8211; Span, Liriano, Slowey, Capps<br />
26 &#8211; Valencia, Casilla, Nishioka, Hughes, Mijares<br />
25 &#8211; Plouffe, Young<br />
24 &#8211; Tosoni<br />
23 &#8211; Revere, Burnett</p>
<p>Where are the &#8220;prospects brought along slowly&#8221;? You could make a case for Perkins, but he was in the starting rotation at 25, as was Baker. Blackburn was there at 26. Duensing, and maybe Hughes,  is really the only guy on the team you can<br />
argue was not given a major league spot before age 26. </p>
<p>Guys like Duensing, Blackburn, Liriano and Valencia certainly can improve a lot on last year. But they are past the point of having &#8220;breakouts&#8221;.  They are more like Glen Perkins, guys who might again have a season that reflects their talent.</p>
<p>Ben Revere and Trevor Plouffe are really the only guys who are at all likely to have breakout seasons. And they aren&#8217;t going to put together big  years that would rival the improvements needed over last year from  Mauer, Morneau, Baker and Span.</p>
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