Comments on: Obligatory MLB Draft Day Post

By: Jim Crikket

Jim Crikket — Mon, 04 Jun 2012 19:46:38 +0000

I agree, frightwig, though the “power” thing can be a bit misleading. While it didn’t take a genius to look at Ben Revere coming out of school and know he wouldn’t develop power, sometimes it isn’t that easy. Star HS position players (and even many college players on mediocre teams) often get pretty much nothing to hit once word of their talent gets around. Even a guy like Miguel Sano, who’s playing Class A baseball, is getting virtually no fastballs in the strike zone to swing at any more and he’s facing supposedly professional level pitchers that think they have a shot at playing Major League baseball some day. I do agree, however, that a position player drafted with the #2 pick overall had better project to have power at the plate.

As for it being embarrassing when a staff whiffs on a high draft pick, yeah… but it depends a bit on the reason for the whiff. You can’t easily predict injuries (though you should probably be cautious about college pitchers that have coaches who abuse them significantly), so I only consider it a real whiff it the player simply doesn’t ever develop Major League skills. If his failure is injury related, that’s hard to blame scouts for unless there was some indication of a problem at the time of the draft.

By: frightwig

frightwig — Mon, 04 Jun 2012 19:34:10 +0000

I really have no idea about anybody in the draft, and I don’t think any bloggers have a real clue, either. Each year, I just hope not to see the Twins pick another “toolsy” player who has never shown any power. But I expect MLB scouting directors to show a higher level of expertise. It has to be embarrassing when they have a Top 5 pick and whiff on it, anyway.

By: Jim Crikket

Jim Crikket — Mon, 04 Jun 2012 18:58:12 +0000

I agree, AW, that some years there are guys who appear MUCH more likely to become stars. Then again, if Washington had known Strasburg would need TJ surgery so soon, do you think they would have still considered him a sure thing? And as I recall, there was a lot of discussion about Harper’s “attitude” that people were bringing up as a red flag. It’s those “unforseen circumstances” that play a large part in the draft being such a crapshoot.

By: AW

AW — Mon, 04 Jun 2012 18:24:09 +0000

Your points are well-taken, especially when you compare this year’s draft to the past couple.
Bryce Harper and Steven Strasburg weren’t 100 percent guarantees to become successful players, but you had a pretty good idea that they would make it in a relatively short period of time, barring unforseen circumstances. There’s no player this year that seems close to equivalent.