Comments on: Will Past Be Prologue? http://knuckleballsblog.com/2012/06/11/will-past-be-prologue/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=will-past-be-prologue "Like butterflies with hiccups" Sat, 18 May 2013 04:17:30 +0000 hourly 1 By: WWTD? (What Will Terry Do?) – Knuckleballs http://knuckleballsblog.com/2012/06/11/will-past-be-prologue/#comment-15379 WWTD? (What Will Terry Do?) – Knuckleballs Mon, 25 Jun 2012 18:32:31 +0000 http://knuckleballsblog.com/?p=12487#comment-15379 [...] Nor do I think things have changed much since I posted my most recent argument against having a full-out fire sale. [...]

]]> By: frightwig http://knuckleballsblog.com/2012/06/11/will-past-be-prologue/#comment-15014 frightwig Tue, 12 Jun 2012 02:16:43 +0000 http://knuckleballsblog.com/?p=12487#comment-15014 On the morning of the Castillo trade, the Twins were 53-51, in 3rd place, 7 games behind the Tigers, 6.5 games behind the Indians. Luis Castillo was a good tablesetter, but on the downside of his career (31 and already suffering chronic leg problems for at least a couple years, then) and set to be a free agent after the season. In retrospect, Terry Ryan properly gauged the state of the division race (Detroit would win 88 games, but the Indians would win 96), and he correctly forecast Castillo’s future. After the Mets signed Castillo to a $25m/4-year contract in November 2007, he had a terrible 2008, just a decent 2009, and finally was released, after a poor 2010 season, with a year to go on his deal. The only thing Terry Ryan got wrong there was the return he received in his trade with the Mets. But, to be fair, Dustin Martin looked like a decent prospect at the time; he hit .288/.360/.425 at High A in 2007, and .290/.355/.447 at AA New Britain in 2008. He just stalled at AAA.

Of course there are no guarantees that the prospects Ryan could get this summer would work out any better. But, he has to consider not only the short window he has to build around this group of veterans, but also the rule changes that eliminated Type B free agents and make it harder to get compensation for Type A’s who sign elsewhere. If he wants to get some sort of prospect compensation for the (eventual) loss of some of these veterans, he may have to make trades. And, particularly if he doesn’t think he can fix the pitching rotation with $$ this winter, I think he might as well trade some veterans while they’re riding high this summer.

I’m not rooting against success in the meantime. I just don’t want to see the front office repeat last year’s miscalculation of “Oh, we’re 50-57, but the team has been looking better lately, and we’re only 6-7 games out, in this ‘winnable’ division….” Oops.

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