Comments on: The End of Nick Blackburn

By: Eric Pleiss

Eric Pleiss — Sun, 29 Jul 2012 17:41:42 +0000

Frightwig, you do well to call me on some hyperbole in my recent comment. While it is unlikely that Blackburn is 3-4 wins worse than a replacement level starter in a handful of starts, he’s given up 5 or more earned runs 8 times, and 3 or less just 3 times in his 15 starts. He currently sits at 2 wins below replacement, so 3-4 was way over shooting. We’ll see what happens going forward. If he pitches for the Twins next year I’ll buy you a beer.

By: frightwig

frightwig — Sun, 29 Jul 2012 05:47:39 +0000

I’m not all that confident that Blackburn will be any better next year; but, over a span of 7 games or so, I don’t think the difference between him and a likely/replacement-level starter would be 3 or 4 games.

As awful as Jason Marquis was with the Twins, for instance, the team was 2-5 in his starts, and lost one of those games by just 1 run. And as good as he’s been for the Padres, they are just 5-5 in his starts for them. You know, if Blackburn’s replacement next spring is the next version of Marquis, or perhaps a kid just up from the farm, what are the chances that the Twins will be winning 5-6 of that guy’s first seven starts? Or that such a replacement will pitch well enough to give the team a chance to win 5+ of those games?

By: Eric Pleiss

Eric Pleiss — Thu, 26 Jul 2012 19:54:22 +0000

While I don’t disagree that it may be possible to see some other version of Nick Blackburn next year, given his recent track record, and inability to get professional hitters out, I’d hate for him to make the team out of ST and then quickly explode. The Twins would undoubtedly string him along for 5-7 starts hoping he’d rebound, and by the time they cut him loose he’s already cost the team 3 or 4 games.
I’m not even confident he could rebound in a bullpen role ala Glen Perkins or Brian Duensing. Given his inability to strike batters out, and mediocre stuff at best, even a couple extra MPH he’d enjoy as a reliever would only flatten out his sinker.
So while there isn’t really anyone to give his innings to that would be better than Blackburn, there is not a lot of value in keeping him around. Maybe, like they did in 2011, they’d use this opportunity to reward an organizational player, like Brian Dinkelman, with some MLB service time.

By: frightwig

frightwig — Thu, 26 Jul 2012 18:18:27 +0000

An object lesson when considering the future of Scott Diamond, I hope.

Meanwhile, I agree with JC on Blackburn. Aside from Diamond, there are no other pitchers currently on the roster who can be counted on to fill a rotation spot next season. Even if Terry Ryan manages to pick up two quality starters in the off-season, there still should be a couple spots in the rotation that will be essentially open jobs. Might as well put Blackburn in the mix with the kids and NRI cast-offs in camp next spring.

By: Jim Crikket

Jim Crikket — Thu, 26 Jul 2012 17:31:06 +0000

I don’t see him being released this year, at least until there’s a resolution to the Liriano and Pavano situations. I’m also fine with keeping him around to finish the season. It’s not like he’s going to be getting innings some hot up-and-comer should be getting. Liam Hendriks? The Twins still clearly believe he’s best off getting more AAA innings. When that changes, there will be opportunities for him to get Big League starts, with or without Blackburn around. Who else is he blocking from getting a look in Minnesota?

You’re right… the cost is sunk. So I would just ride out the year and bring him to ST in February and see how he stacks up with whatever options Terry Ryan has assembled at that point. I don’t suggest Ryan should assume Blackburn is going to be a fixture in the rotation when he plots out his offseason plans for acquiring pitchers, but you’re paying him whether you get a look at him in ST or not, so get a look at him. You’re no worse off releasing him April 1 next year than if you do it now.

By: Paul

Paul — Thu, 26 Jul 2012 15:30:50 +0000

I just don’t think the Twins will release NB, for better or worse he’s going to be around this year and next. Maybe we can send him to AAA to become the next R.A. Dickey, teach him the Knuckler, or a screw ball, or a split change, a palm ball or the ephus pitch. something. He doesn’t miss bats, even in AAA he doesn’t miss bats. We’re doomed. 6+ million dollars doomed.