Thinking the Unthinkable: Trade Joe Mauer?

This is what happens when the offseason rolls around and I really have no rooting interest among the four remaining MLB teams in the respective League Championship Series. I write 2000 words about something that will never, ever happen. At least that’s what happened to me Sunday.

But it’s not my fault. I’m blaming Eric and this Sunday morning Tweet:

@ERolfPleiss Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe says Red Sox should target Mauer and/or Morneau this winter. #MNTwins http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2012/10/13/few-ideas-shore-red-sox-roster/npiJ3r49NrtnhnGInPoQ1L/story.html …

Having nothing better to do, I clicked the link to Cafardo’s article, which goes through several possible moves the Red Sox could make to get their team back on track, starting with trading for Joe Mauer. Cafardo mentions that the Red Sox are reportedly a bit gunshy about taking on more expensive long-term contracts and wonders if the Twins would eat some of his salary. On the other hand, if you’re the Twins, the only reason to deal Mauer would be to get out from under that contract. Putting those factors together, you quickly conclude that any such deal is beyond unlikely and bordering on unthinkable.

But this is the offseason and what’s the offseason for if not to think about the unthinkable?

I’m not surprised to see a Boston writer bring up Mauer’s name as a possible target for the Red Sox. In fact, given how old and fragile the Yankees line up is looking, I’d be shocked if Mauer’s name didn’t appear in more than one New York writer’s “How to Fix the Yankees” column in coming weeks, as well.

Joe Mauer (Knuckleballs photo)

But there are any number of logical reasons why Joe Mauer won’t be going anywhere. Local boy. Popular with local fans. Historically great hitting catcher. Huge contract. No-trade clause. The list goes on.

But if you’ll promise not to misinterpret this as an article suggesting that Mauer either should or will be traded, let’s at least take a look at whether there are any circumstances under which Terry Ryan might actually consider a discussion.

Let’s just say, for the sake of argument, that Boston GM Ben Cherington places a call to Ryan and asks the simple question, “Can we talk about Joe Mauer?”

Understand, it’s unlikely that question would even be asked. Cherington is unlikely to be looking to take on $23 million per year long-term contracts. Still, as Cafardo points out, Mauer would fit nicely in to a line up that would accommodate a catcher/1B/DH like Mauer. He might also set some kind of modern-day record for doubles in Fenway Park. Bringing in a legitimate superstar would send a strong message to Red Sox Nation that the team has no intention of taking several years to rebuild their brand. And let’s be honest, the Red Sox can afford to pay Mauer his money. They freed up a lot of payroll space with their late-season deals and if they decide to let David Ortiz walk away, they’ll have even more money to play with.

So just maybe the Red Sox could see themselves calling about Mauer. But should the Twins even answer that call? That answer may not be as obvious as many fans think.

The Twins gave Mauer an excessive contract before the 2010 season because they could not afford, from a public relations standpoint, not to sign him at any price he and his agent demanded. Opening a new stadium built largely with public funding, with virtually every seat bought and paid for through season tickets (and a waiting list of people willing to replace any holder who drops out), there was no way the Twins could allow themselves to be seen as letting the local hero get away because they didn’t want to pay for him. For the first time in franchise history, money really didn’t matter.

But those days are nothing more than a misty memory today. The Twins are coming off of consecutive seasons of more than 95 losses and attendance is dropping. Put those factors together and it wouldn’t be unrealistic to expect the Twins to slash payroll for the second straight offseason. Today, money does matter. Paying one player $23 million dollars when your total payroll is $110 million is one thing. Doing so when your total payroll is $85 million is something else, altogether.

Still, it’s not like the Twins are destitute, either. With the money coming off the books after the past season, Terry Ryan has enough payroll to work with to make improvements to his team. There aren’t a lot of top of the rotation pitchers out there, but there are plenty of more reasonably priced arms on the market and he even has a couple of trade chips he can afford to flip for pitching if he wants to go that direction. Also, despite what some folks might think, Joe Mauer is still really, really good at baseball and he’s likely to stay good for a number of years. You don’t just give that kind of talent away for a handful of magic beans (or in this case, for just a few million dollars of payroll space).

What this all means is that if, as Cafardo suggests, Cherington asks TR whether the Twins would eat any of Mauer’s contract, the answer would be (or at least should be), “hell no!” But what if Boston agrees to take on that contract?

Conventional wisdom in these kinds of trades is that the team trading a big contract either gets high level prospects back by eating some salary OR gets marginal prospects back while dumping the entire contract. That’s considered “fair return.”

Yet the Red Sox themselves managed to not only unload more debt owed to less talented players on to the Dodgers a couple of months ago, but got legitimate talent back in return, as well. They should be congratulated for that. They should also be reminded of that when they call the Twins about Joe Mauer. “Fair” is a relative term. “Fair” depends on how badly you want what I have. If you don’t want Mauer that badly, that’s fine. If you do, then shut up about “fair” and let’s get serious.

There are 3-4 players in the Red Sox system that the Twins would have to target as possible players they’d need in return. I’m not any kind of expert on minor league players, but fortunately I know how to read things written by people who are. I also have a pretty good idea what the Twins need (then again, who doesn’t at this point?).

Any discussion with the Red Sox about Mauer would have to start with the Twins dumping his entire contract AND getting at least one of the following players in return:

Allen Webster: 22 year old right-handed starting pitcher that the Sox got from the Dodgers in the Crawford, et al, trade. He’s got a mid-90s fastball and strikes out nearly a batter per inning. He pitched in AA this season and should be a AAA arm to start 2013. He was the #2 prospect in the Dodgers organization prior to the trade.

Matt Barnes: Righty starting pitcher was the Sox first round pick out of UConn in 2011 and covered both levels of A-ball in 2012. Barnes also has a mid-90s fastball and strikes out a ton of hitters. He’s likely to be a year behind Webster in terms of being Major League ready, however.

Garin Cecchini: 21 year old 3B had a .305/.394/.433 split in high-A ball in 2012. He also stole 51 bases in 57 attempts. He hasn’t shown a lot of power yet but hits a ton of doubles. With Will Middlebrooks perhaps entrenched at 3B for the Red Sox, Cecchini could be blocked unless he’s converted to a 2B. The Twins could use help in either spot.

Speaking of third basemen being blocked by Middlebrooks, the Red Sox top prospect is reportedly Xander Bogaerts. Bogaerts is playing shortstop and the Sox hope he can stay there but scouts have doubts about whether he will be able to do that. They think he will more likely need to move to 3B or, perhaps even more likely, a corner OF spot or 1B. He was just 19 years old through the past season but has already shown both an ability to hit for average and power through Class A and even in a month of games at AA. It sounds like Boston has their own version of Miguel Sano, but it’s unlikely they’d trade him for anyone. I wouldn’t.

With Cecchini and Bogaerts knocking on the door, maybe Boston should consider trading Middlebrooks?

A step below these guys would be someone like Henry Owens, who is a 20 year old string bean of a pitcher with what appears to be a lot of potential. He’s 6’7” and a bit over 200 pounds and only throws in the low 90s at this point. But he had 130 strikeouts in 101.2 innings at Class A in 2012 and that would certainly move him to the top of the Twins’ starting pitching prospects list in a hurry.

If the Twins could score one of these top prospects from Boston in addition to shedding Mauer’s contract, Ryan could then be free to have conversations with his peers about Major League level pitching without being as concerned about salary. Would a trade for someone like James Shields (who has a $9 mil club option with the Rays in 2013) then be something worth considering?

Terry Ryan (Knuckleballs photo)

But even if Ryan and Cherington could come to some kind of agreement, what about that pesky no-trade clause in Mauer’s contract? Would he even consider giving approval? Let’s just say I no longer believe it’s necessarily a certainty that he’d say “no” to such a deal.

On the one hand, Joe’s a very private person and it would seem that moving to a large-market team that is as dysfunctional as the Red Sox has been would be counter-intuitive. On the other hand, he’s a really big fish in a mid-market fishbowl and you wonder if he might not welcome the opportunity to be just one of many mega-stars in the New England sports scene. As Cafardo points out, Mauer also lives in Fort Myers in the offseason. Guess who, besides the Twins, has their Spring Training facility in Fort Myers? Yep… the Sawx.

Let’s also be honest about something else. Despite the colossal belly flop of a season that the Red Sox had in 2012, if you were Mauer and were weighing the Sox against the Twins as to which organization was more likely to field a Championship level team over the remaining six years of your contract, there’s no doubt who you would see as being more likely. Boston may not always make the right decisions, but their clear goal every year is to win it all. And every year, they make moves they believe will give themselves a better shot at doing so. You simply can not say that about the Twins.

Joe Mauer is not a naïve little boy any more. Family is important. But he already lives in Florida half the year and the life of a MLB ballplayer during the season doesn’t leave much time for family anyway. With Boston training in Fort Myers, I think they might just be one team he would consider waiving his no-trade deal for.

So, IF the Red Sox call… IF Terry Ryan will listen… IF the Red Sox would take on the entire contract… and IF the Twins could also get a top prospect (or two?) in return… would Mauer agree to a trade?

Let’s just say that if, like me, you are one who never wants to see Joe Mauer in anything but a Twins uniform, we should probably hope it doesn’t come down to that last factor.

- JC

[EDIT: Changes have been made above to correct original errors regarding the timing of Mauer's contract.]

9 thoughts on “Thinking the Unthinkable: Trade Joe Mauer?

  1. If they were ever going to do it, the best time might be now. This season he was as valuable as he’s ever likely going to be again; if the Twins try to shop him around in a few years, at an age when catchers typically go downhill fast, they may very well have to eat salary and accept lesser prospects to unload him. Meanwhile, a lot of Twins fans seem to be disillusioned with Mauer, and more people are seeing that we could be in for a long rebuilding period, anyway, which might be completed sooner if Mauer is traded for top young talent now. Fans might be willing to accept, for any of those reasons, that trading Mauer this winter is the right thing to do.

    But then Terry Ryan would have to concede that his club isn’t likely to be good again while Mauer is still capable of playing at an All-Star level, and that he wouldn’t mind taking the heat from fans who never want to see the hometown boy wear another uniform (much less a Red Sox uniform). I don’t expect to see that. It also wouldn’t be like him to trade a player whom he, or Gardy, believes still adds value to the Twins roster and doesn’t have a clear in-house replacement.

  2. I blame my brother for a lot of things, so blaming him for this seems legit to me. I may even get a shirt made that says something to the effect that “E.Rolf Pleiss hates Joe Mauer” that I can wear around next season for no good reason.

    I agree, Joe Mauer is never going anywhere, a full no-trade clause pretty much ensures that. It would take a perfect storm of some great magnitude to get him out of MN, at least thats where I stand on the issue. If Joe Mauer ever does leave I plan to blame Eric for that too, which is pretty much my plan for all major disasters I encounter in my life. I was actually slated to be the first child out of the womb, but he put me in a headlock and rushed out while I was trying to catch my breath. Ever since I’ve been blaming world events on him to get even. Remember the earthquake in Haiti? Just one of many disasters he’s personally responsible for.

  3. Wow, I wish I had an “evil twin” I could blame for everything bad that’s ever happened! That would be so cool!

    I’m just not so sure Mauer would never consent to a trade. At some point, don’t you think he will want a ring and will start looking at whether it might be easier someplace other than in Minnesota? Wouldn’t you? I know I would.

  4. This whole idea is somewhat far fetched. I understand that you admit this multiple times in your article and I commend you for the length and depth. I just wonder why you include 2 third baseman as a possible return for the Twins, one of which being a possible candidate to move to second base. I question this only because two of the top prospects in the Twins organization are at those positions. Miguel Sano clearly has issues with his defense, but so does Miguel Cabrera. I’m in now way comparing the two, but some defensive lapses can be disguised by incredible offense. I assume if Sano cannot play third base consistently, he will end up as a DH in the bigs when and if he makes it. Then of course we may need a third baseman, but the Twins also have a recent first round pick invested in Travis Harrison too. I just don’t see them going the offense route here if it happens I guess. Then, at second base they have possibly Eddie Rosario. He has played both there and OF. With our depth in the OF it would be possible to presume he’ll stay at second base.

    I guess the main thing I take from all this is, why does Boston have 3 players in their minor league system that would immediately become one of our top pitching prospects when we have been picking ahead of them in the draft for the past how many years?!?! This is where my anger comes into play. I love Terry Ryan and he’s made some shrude moves…. But how many players have we drafted in the past 15 years have actually “truly” panned out at the big league level. You can pin this on Bill Smith or anyone for that matter. I just think it’s pretty sad Tampa Bay is starting 7th rounders and our top picks are working in the real estate market or in some other non baseball career…. I also get steamed when I hear the Twins should/will drop their payroll.. “the A’s did it on a low salary, why can’t we…” The Twins need to make a Greinke type splash or this thing is going to continue to go south.

    On a side note, I enjoy the Gibson to Strausburg comparisons and how the Twins should start him slow so they can maximize his use in the fall… If they don’t improve the pitching around him, it’s not going to matter much if Gibson can pitch in the fall when we’re 14 games under .500. If the Twins sign Grienke and trade for Shields… Then I see a legitimate reason to start Gibson late. Outside of that, just let the kid pitch. But I digress.

  5. Thanks for your comments, Max, and I agree with many of your points.

    “Far fetched” is probably an understatement, in terms of the probability of a Mauer trade, but then examining any specific trade possibility at this point is probably just as far fetched. Eric’s link to Cafardo’s column last weekend got me thinking about the subject and, for some of the reasons I wrote about, I concluded that it wasn’t necessarily impossible. I do believe that, in the highly unlikely event that the Sox and Twins came to an agreement on a deal, Mauer would quite possibly waive his no-trade clause (though his agent would no-doubt insist on him being compensated in some manner for doing so).

    Bogaerts got my attention because he’s currently a SS. Would he stick there? I dunno, but it sounds like he’s as likely to stick there as Sano is at 3B. Would we really want an infield at some point of Rosario, Bogaerts and Sano? Yikes. Then again, as Detroit has proven, 9-8 wins count just as much as 3-2 wins. Honestly, I like Cecchini as a 3B better than Sano. I suspect Miguel will eventually be playing 1B for the Twins (though I’m completely on board with keeping him at 3B as he progresses through the minors).

    Questioning the Twins history of drafting pitchers in the past 5-6 years is preaching to the choir on this end. I think a lot of us would like an answer to how things got this bad. But it has and it needs to be fixed. One way (perhaps the only way) to fix those past mistakes is to trade for other teams’ young pitching.

    The Gibson-Strasberg comparison is indeed worth discussing. In fact, I’m already starting to research an article on that topic. I doubt I’ll be the only writer tackling the subject, but I don’t think we can intelligently have that discussion until we have a better picture of the roster Terry Ryan constructs for 2013.

  6. Hey Jim, just follow the postseason for the “love of the game”. My Gosh. My real team/the Twins haven’t been there in 2 years and my fantasy team/although I’ve followed them since Billy Martin managed them, got swept. But this is a chance to see/witness some of the best “pitching around”, Detroit/Saint Louis or San Fran. Great arms all.

  7. Yeah, it’s funny how good starting pitching makes a difference, isn’t it? Maybe someone should point that out to Terry Ryan.

  8. I know we are all just having fun here, but my two cents: I spent two summer in New England reading Red Sox coverage. I have many relatives there, so I still often visit. The Red Sox famously are team of “25 players, 25 cabs.” They have a bad clubhouse, have had three managers in three years, and have media scrutiny that makes our local media look like the Highland Villager in comparison. Dissatisfied players routinely are anonymously quoted by competing sportswriters and broadcasters, ripping management, coaches and other players. If Mauer had a bad year, 2011 would seem like a trip to Disneyland compared to the way he’d be be skewered in Boston. Does that sound like Joe Mauer’s kind of situation? I could see him agreeing to a trade to some places, but I just can’t see Jake and Teresa (and Maddie) thinking that Boston is a great idea.

  9. So, owlsview, you’re saying you don’t see Joe Mauer having the Red Sox clubhouse all sitting in a circle singing Kumbaya? I’m shocked! :)

    Maybe my perception of Mauer is way off base, but I’ve always kind of envisioned him as someone who’d be pretty comfortable in a “25 players, 25 cabs” environment. Just do his job and go home afterward. I do totally agree that the media scrutiny would intensify, but as far as fan support is concerned, it seems like he’s getting quite a backlash the last couple of years in Minnesota anyway.

    And you’re absolutely right, we’re all just having some fun with the discussion. I appreciate your comment, as well as everyone else’s. Hopefully, Terry Ryan will get his butt in gear and give us all something “real” to sink our teeth in to very soon!