Comments on: Years Don’t Matter… Much

By: Winter Meetings Day Two: Twins Face Stiff Competition for Starting Pitchers – Knuckleballs

Wed, 05 Dec 2012 00:46:07 +0000

[...] the Twins are willing to spend dollars and years (a notion promoted by our own Jim Crikket), they’re going to have trouble finding free agents that want to sign [...]

By: Jim Crikket

Jim Crikket — Tue, 27 Nov 2012 00:34:35 +0000

First, Eric, as I pointed out, the Twins can easily pay one or two guys $11 mil a year for multiple years and still very possibly only have $50-60 million in payroll commitments in 2015. That means that, to me, there’s absolutely no reason they couldn’t sign a couple of #2-3 pitchers like Jackson and Sanchez now… to long term deals that would assure they’re still around to usher the next round of “prospects” in to the Big Leagues… AND have anywhere from $50-75 million of payroll space to add a legitimate #1 pitcher if they still haven’t developed one internally by 2015.

It doesn’t have to be “either/or”. Spending some money on a guy like Sanchez now would in no way preclude them from bidding on a true ace in a couple of years if one hits the market. The fact is, however, that fewer and fewer aces are actually hitting the FA market as teams lock up their top guys for longer terms.

And, of course, one benefit of signing a couple of these guys now is that you put a better product on the field in the short term. I just don’t buy the argument that if you can’t be sure you’ve got a championship caliber team, there’s no point in bothering to try to win more than 60 games. Fans deserve to see a legitimate Major League team on the field EVERY season, not just when the stars align and the blogosphere concludes they can win it all.

If the Twins don’t make the m0ves necessary to keep fan interest in 2013-14, they run the risk of seeing attendance drop so far that revenues by 2015 will have entered a death spiral. That would also negatively affect their next local media rights deal. They simply can not afford to ignore the present completely.

By: Eric Pleiss

Eric Pleiss — Tue, 27 Nov 2012 00:08:36 +0000

JC – As a counter point to your argument, what would be the benefit of the Twins sacrificing long-term payroll now in a relatively weak FA pitching market vs. waiting a year or two and spending when Twins have realistic idea of their window to win, and when perhaps when more than one ace is available on the market?

By: Thrylos98

Thrylos98 — Fri, 23 Nov 2012 04:14:26 +0000

Yeah . TR is between a rock and a hard place and he really has to get creative, but I am not sure that he can.

His best bet in getting pitchers in a value situation is to buy low on higher paid pitchers from other clubs that are willing to pitch some of their salaries. Still upset that a Haren thing did not happen based on what the Cubs and Angels had pretty much agreed…

Here is a wild idea that probably is too much thinking out of the box for good OLD Terry:
Get Johan back from the Mets for the last year of his contract if they eat half of it and they take someone like Drew Butera back. Santana with Cuellar back together has a lot of potential and Johan another year away from his surgery will be better. And he will get bottoms on seats (heck Lefty’s -that’s Steve Carlton for the young ones- ghost of Christmas past did so in the Dome in ’87).

But this outside of the box thinking. Something that Ryan does not practice very well.

By: Phil Naessens

Phil Naessens — Thu, 22 Nov 2012 14:30:26 +0000

Good article Jim!

I thought the Mets would regret Santana as well but the Twins could make a play for either Jon Niese or R.A. Dickey via the trade….

Happy Thanksgiving one and all!!

Phil

By: lisatwink

lisatwink — Wed, 21 Nov 2012 19:59:23 +0000

This just seems to be the lay of the land for pitching now. Deals are long and expensive. If you don’t pay well for a long deal, you don’t get pitching.

Eric, usually I think your arguments are sound, but if the Twins make less-expensive deals for back-end guys, then I don’t see how we end up with anything but five #4 and #5 guys. We’ve tried that recently, and it turns out it doesn’t work out any better on the field than it does on paper.

By: Jim Crikket

Jim Crikket — Wed, 21 Nov 2012 16:17:57 +0000

Eric, I’d reply to that by saying that $11 million a year is not even close to market value for a #1 pitcher, so they won’t be paying them “like a #1.” Jeremy Guthrie just signed a 3 year deal for $8 mil a year. Jeremy Friggin Guthrie! By 2105, $11 million will be the going rate for a #3 pitcher. In fact, the way things are looking, that’s pretty much what the market for a mid-rotation pitcher is right now. I’m really just suggesting that the Twins bite the bullet and pay the going rate maybe for a year or two more than they are comfortable with.

Of course, you’re right. You don’t spend money just because you can. Maybe the Twins should just go with a $50-60 million payroll. That would be great for fans, too, because obviously the Twins would have to slash prices for tickets/beer/tshirts in order to bring their revenues down to the level where they still are hitting their “50% of revenues for payroll” model, right? #sarcasm

By: Eric Pleiss

Eric Pleiss — Wed, 21 Nov 2012 16:07:36 +0000

Jim,
I understand that the Twins could afford to give out a longer term contract, but because they can, doesn’t mean they should. Certainly the market for SP contracts is going to be steep, and will only get higher, but unless you think Sanchez or Jackson will still be a #2 level pitcher in 2015, then signing them to the long term deal only serves to muddle the back end of the rotation, where the Twins could make similar moves for what is likely to be a smaller and less risky deal.
Maybe they can still be valuable pitchers 3 years from now, but if the Twins are forced to pay them like a #1, because the market will almost assuredly command an exceptionally high price for what are really the 2nd and 3rd best FA pitchers this winter, it might not be money well spent.
Certainly they can spend, but maybe they’d be better served making a trade and then signing a guy to an extension.

By: Jim Crikket

Jim Crikket — Wed, 21 Nov 2012 15:44:57 +0000

After today, I’ll let you pick up the baton on these rants for a while. I think I’ve just about written everything I have to say on the topic until Terry Ryan… you know… actually does something.

I did neglect to include Wimmers. I was typing just off the top of my head and, as you pointed out, he had a bit of a forgotten year (evidenced by the fact that I forgot about him). It would be great if he would step up.

And I totally agree that, if the Twins do make trades, they should certainly consider adding AA-AAA level pitching. I’m just not optimistic that anyone will give legitimate near-MLB-ready starting pitching prospects up for anyone the Twins have to offer. Organizations treat those kind of guys like gold and hoard them accordingly.

By: AW

AW — Wed, 21 Nov 2012 15:25:48 +0000

Good read. I’m seriously just going to start copying and pasting your posts to my blog
Kidding of course.

The one Twins pitcher that should be mentioned as “in the pipeline” is Alex Wimmers. Not for 2013, of course, since he’s recovering from Tommy John, but likely for 2014 I would think. He’s had a “forgotten year,” much in the way that Joe Benson did.

And to your point about having so many young, young guys under team control in/around 2015 (which is a great “problem” to have), I also think the Twins need to look at A and AA pitching prospects if and when they deal guys like Span and Willingham. Yes, it would be great to get a MLB starter in return that’s under team control for 3 additional seasons, but in my mind, it’s also good to plan for 2015 and beyond, and we all know that this organization is lacking good pitching talent in the minors.