Month: December 2014

JC’s Top 15 Twins Prospects: 2014-15

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Ho Ho Ho. Tis the season for being merry and jolly and all that stuff.

It’s also the season for publishing “top prospect” lists. Actually, it’s a bit late in the season for doing this, but I just haven’t felt like doing a lot of writing lately. So sue me.

Miguel Sano
Miguel Sano

This is the fourth year that I’ve put out my own list. I’m not really sure WHY I do it. It’s not like we really need yet another such list and the other people who tout their lists know their stuff better than I do (in many cases, anyway). So let’s just say I do this for fun.

As I was preparing this list, I went back and looked at the lists I’ve put together previously. I did a Top 10 before the 2012 season and Top 15 lists before 2013 and 2014.

It’s interesting (to me anyway) that this is the third consecutive season that I’ve had the same three prospects ranked 1 through 3 in some order or another. They have swapped spots a bit between them, but Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton and Alex Meyer have been in my top 3 spots for three straight years.

It’s more than a little exciting to realize that all three have the potential to make their Major League debuts in 2015.

Without further ado, here’s the list:

  1. Miguel Sano – 3B – Why? I’m more optimistic that he won’t be a liability defensively than I have been previously, but more importantly, I believe his injury is highly unlikely to preclude him from reaching his ceiling.
  2. Byron Buxton – CF – Why? I have some (not a lot, but some) concern that his wrist injuries could become chronic wrist issues that certainly could affect his ceiling as an outfielder and as a hitter. It’s not a huge concern, for me, but it’s enough that I gave the top spot to Sano, who I have no such concerns about.
  3. Alex Meyer – SP – A lot of people are dropping Meyer and moving Berrios up ahead of him based on a year when Meyer didn’t break through as hoped and had some injury issues, while Berrios had a breakout year. I still think Meyer’s ceiling is a notch above Berrios’.
  4. Jose Berrios – SP – But, yeah, Berrios DID have a really good year. He’s a workout fiend and clearly is intent on getting the most out of his opportunity to pitch professionally, despite not being the prototypically tall athlete that is in vogue around the league.
  5. Eddie Rosario – OF – It was nearly a lost year for Rosario after his suspension and only getting half a season in during the summer, but he reclaimed his value with a strong Arizona Fall League. I’m probably a litte higher on him than most people.
  6. Jorge Polanco – MIF – Yes, his cup of coffee with the Twins was more a matter of convenience, since he was on the 40-man roster, than reflective of his current abilities, but he did have a very strong season.
  7. Trevor May – SP – His ceiling might be as a #3 starter, but he’ll seriously contend for a Twins rotation spot in spring training this season. That, in itself, warrants a spot in the top 10 prospects.
  8. Kohl Stewart – SP – Unlike May, Stewart is at least a couple of years away from even being considered for a spot with the Twins, but even though his strikeout rate in 2014 was lower than hoped for, he remains a top of the rotation prospect.
  9. Nick Gordon – SS – The 2014 first round pick had a very good short-season at Elizabethton. If he shows even more in a full season this year, he’ll move up this list quickly.
  10. Nick Burdi – RP – The 2014 2nd round pick has legitimate 100 mph potential and an unfair slider. Should pitch for the Twins at some point in 2015.
  11. Max Kepler – OF – We are seeing more flashes of promise on the potential that’s been talked about for years. He needs a breakout season in 2015.
  12. Stephen Gonsalves – SP – The lefty showed real talent against Midwest League hitters after joining Cedar Rapids and was very young for the level.
  13. Chih-Wei Hu – SP – I’m probably the only one you will find ranking Hu in the top 15, but he showed me more command  – of more pitches – and more mound maturity – than any other starting pitcher in Cedar Rapids in 2014, and that’s saying something.
  14. Travis Harrison – OF – Harrison is dropping out of the top 15 on some lists, seemingly due to his lack of home runs in 2014. I understand that, but I felt Harrison’s biggest need going in to last year was to cut his strikeouts down and develop more as a hitter who can deliver to all fields with some authority. He did both. The home runs will come, he didn’t get “weaker.”
  15. Stuart Turner – C – I have to say, it is very difficult to pick a #15 for this list. I’m going with Turner primarily because he skipped low-A and went to the Miracle and, after a slow start at the plate, he hit better later and reports are he was as good as advertised as a receiver.

It is almost impossible for me to believe that I’ve created a Top 15 Twins Prospects list that does not include Lewis Thorpe, Jake Reed, Mitch Garver, Adam Brett Walker and Taylor Rogers.

I want to see Thorpe recover from his elbow issue without requiring surgery before I give him a spot in the top 15 which he otherwise deserves and I want to see Walker be successful against pitchers at least one level higher, given his issues with the strikeouts.

With Reed, Garver and Rogers, though, it was simply a case of running out of room. If they stay healthy, I expect every one of those guys to play Major League baseball (hopefully for the Twins). If you have an organization where those guys are not among your top 15 prospects, you’ve got a damn good pipeline going.

The Twins have a damn good pipeline going.

JC

Hunter/Twins Reunion. What Are They Thinking?

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My initial reaction upon hearing that the Twins and outfielder Torii Hunter had agreed to a one-year, $10.5 million contract that will put Hunter back in a Twins uniform for 2015 was pretty much the same as my initial reaction when I first heard the two parties had what media types were referring to as, “mutual interest.”

Why?

For the life of me, this just doesn’t make sense to me. Not if I ran the Twins. Not if I was Torii Hunter.

torii_hunter_studio_portrait_photofileSure, the Twins need outfield help. Oswaldo Arcia is going to play a corner outfield spot in 2015 and he’s not going to play it very well, so the Twins need some guys in the other two outfield spots who can cover their own areas and some of Arcia’s, too.

Eight or nine years ago, Hunter would have been a solution, but for the past several years, his outfield play has been one of those rare things in baseball that bring stat-heads and old-school types together. Whether you believe in defensive metrics or the “eye-test,” you probably have pretty much concluded that Hunter’s defensive game has deteriorated to the point where he’s no longer a positive contributor in that area.

Why would the Twins think he’s likely to be part of the solution to their defensive woes in the outfield?

And while we’re at it, why would Hunter want to join the Twins?

He’ll be 40 years old before next season ends. At that age, shouldn’t he be looking for opportunities to sign with a team that enters 2015 with a much better chance of playing ball in to October next year than the Twins have?

I get that new Twins manager Paul Molitor might like to have someone like Hunter in his clubhouse, especially given the reputation said clubhouse has had in recent years for lacking anything resembling a competitive spirit.

I get that the Twins front office might welcome a popular familiar face to include in their advertising, given the expected decline in ticket sales next year.

But I have always felt you have to first prove you’re among the best players on the field before you can lead in the clubhouse and I’m not convinced his young teammates will look at Hunter and see someone who still has the ability to perform at levels that earn their respect.

I also believe that wins will sell more tickets than the return of a popular familiar face.

But if this is what Molitor and the front office want, so be it. It’s just a straight one-year deal, so it won’t block any of the outfield prospects coming up and we all know that there’s no shortage of payroll space in the Twins’ budget right now.

As for Hunter, it’s a little harder to figure out what he’s thinking – but then, hasn’t that pretty much been the case throughout his career?

Still, he must have had other, better, offers. Didin’t he?

The Rangers, Orioles and Mariners all had been rumored to have interest and, with the way some teams have been throwing around money, he seemingly would have been able to get a multi-year deal somewhere. So why take a one-year deal in Minnesota?

There’s really only one reason I can think of.

Hunter may very well think his chances of finishing the season on a legitimate World Series contender are better if he starts the season with the Twins and then gets flipped in July to a contender for prospects, than if he started with a supposed contender.

We’ll call this the “Josh Willingham gambit.”

Why lock himself in to one supposed contender from the start when he may get a chance to join a team with a better shot mid-way through the season?

In the end, this is not a deal I particularly wanted to see. It certainly would not have been high on my wish-list if I were a starting pitcher for the Twins and I doubt it will make any free agent starting pitcher think the Twins are suddenly an attractive option (though their willingness to shell out $10.5 million to Hunter might at least demonstrate that the Twins aren’t shy about over-paying for what they want).

If Hunter discovers the fountain of youth somewhere under the right field overhang in Target Field or if General Manager Terry Ryan can turn Hunter in to some useful prospects at some point, then this deal certainly won’t be a disaster.

At least this is more interesting to discuss than what we’ve had to talk about to this point. Debating the relative pros and cons of base coaches and assistant hitting coaches was getting a little old, wasn’t it?

– JC