Category Archives: Gambling

Whew! We made it!

I know I can’t be the only person who wouldn’t have bet much money a couple of months ago on the chances of MLB even having a Postseason in 2020. It looked pretty bleak when the Marlins and Cardinals started things off with a bunch of postponed games.

But here we are. The American League starts their first round on Tuesday and the National League gets going on Wednesday.

And, yes, the Minnesota Twins will be participating in this rather strange endeavor, having squeaked through with a second consecutive American League Central Division championship.

When I initially placed a bet on the Twins to win their Division, back in January, I bet in moderation. After all, back then, we still expected the season to be 162 games long and we all know anything can happen over the course of a marathon-like MLB regular season.

But when the season was officially shortened to 60 games, I was feeling very optimistic about the Twins’ chances in the AL Central. So much so that I put a whole bunch more money on them to win the Division. How much? Well, I won’t go into those details, but it was the largest single bet I’ve placed on any event since legalized gambling came to Iowa.

Suffice to say, I was not pleased with a week left in the schedule. Thankfully, the White Sox totally tanked and the Twins won just enough down the stretch for me to cash in.

But that’s all in the rearview mirror now. It’s time to look at the odds that William Hill and Elite Sportsbook have issued for the 16 teams still playing baseball this week.

Once again, I’m surprised how these two organizations diverge on some of these odds. There are some interesting opportunities, for sure, but first let’s check in on the Twins’ odds, where the two sportsbooks are almost in lockstep with one another.

Both William Hill and Elite have the Twins at 10-1 odds to win the World Series and they differ very little on their chances to win the American League Pennant. Hill is at +425 and Elite at an even 4-1.

At William Hill, you can also put money on the outcome of the Twins’ best-of-three series with the Astros (boooooo). But the Twins are such heavy favorites (that felt as weird to type as it does to read, trust me) at -170 that it hardly seems worth it.

Bottom line, putting a little money on the Twins to win it all at 10-1 seems worthwhile. After all, if there’s anything that would feel better than the Twins winning the World Series, it would have to be the Twins winning the World Series AND cashing in a nice fat payday from a sportsbook.

But once we’ve got that money down, where else should we turn?

Forget the Dodgers. I don’t care how good a team is supposed to be, if the best I can do is get 3-1 at Elite (+275 at WmHill) to win a playoff involving 15 other teams, I’m going to pass.

The Rays are getting just 6-1 odds at Elite to win the World Series, but you can get 10-1 on WmHill. So you might ask yourself if you like Tampa’s chances as much as (or even more than?) you do the Twins’.

No? So, what about the Yankees? Yes, at WmHill you can get that same 10-1 line on the Yankees to win the Series (Elite offers only 7-1).

Elite is also offering 10-1 on the White Sox, but you can get 14-1 if you move over to William Hill.

Thinking 10-1 is small potatoes and want a bigger bang for your buck? We can do that.

Let’s start by assuming you’re not interested in Miami (40-1 on WmHill, 33-1 on Elite) and probably only marginally more tempted by Milwaukee (40-1 on Elite, 25-1 on WmHill) and Toronto (nay, Buffalo) which sits at 30-1 at both books.

Could you be teased into a Cubs bet at 15-1 on William Hill (12-1 on Elite)? Maybe you like the Cubs to win the NL at +750 on WmHill (+550 on Elite)?

The Padres have been a trendy favorite and you can get 4-1 at Elite (+350 WmHill) for a San Diego NL Pennant or go crazy and bet them to win the whole shooting match and get 9-1 at Elite (7-1 at WmHill).

Here’s one that has piqued my interest, though.

Didn’t the Reds look to you like they could be capable of doing some damage? And the Twins didn’t even go up against their best arm!

We can get 9-1 at Elite on the Reds to win the National League (+850 at WmHill) and a whopping 22-1 at Elite to win the World Series (17-1 at WmHill).

Did anyone who watched that Twins/Reds series really come away from it thinking the Twins are better than twice as likely to win it all than the team that took two out of three from them?

Just for comparison, Cleveland and Houston both carry 20-1 odds to win the World Series.

And Cincinnati got a pretty good draw in that NL bracket, too. They’d only have to face one or the other of the NL favorites, since they’re in the opposite bracket from the Dodgers and Padres (yes, technically, Atlanta is the number 2 seed, but both bookmakers like San Diego more).

I like the Reds in their matchup with Atlanta and then they probably get the Cubs (though I’m not THAT sure the Cubs couldn’t find a way to drop a couple of games to Miami).

So, that’s where I’m landing. Obviously, I have to put some money on the Twins to win it all so I REALLY have something to celebrate when Maeda shuts down his former team to claim the top prize.

But I’m also going to take a little flyer on the Reds. Clearly could be a combination of “recency bias” and steep odds, but heck, I’ve put money on stuff with less logic behind it.

Let’s get this party started!

(NOTE: In this “Bet On It” series of posts, I refer regularly to the two online sportsbook services to which I subscribe legally as a resident of the state of Iowa. If you’re interested in checking out these services for yourself, you can do so by clicking William Hill and/or Elite Sportsbook.) 

With Opening Day of the 2020 Major League Baseball season now upon us, I thought I would take a quick peek at what, if any, adjustments the sportsbooks I subscribe to have made compared to those I posted in Part 4 of this “Bet On It!” series earlier in July, as teams were making their way back into their abbreviated summer camps.

It turns out, however, that my fellow betting subscribers have given the oddsmakers at William Hill and Elite Sportsbook very little reason to make adjustments to their MLB season odds.

I was pleased to see that William Hill has again begun taking bets on the Division races and even happier to see that they’ve adjusted their line for the favored Twins, compared to what they were offering back in March when spring training was suspended. The Twins’ line is now at -140, which means you have to bet $140 to win $100 on a Twins Central Division championship.

That may not sound great, but William Hill hadn’t offered better than -160 since I started checking in January and still held the line at -170 in mid March. I really like the Twins’ chances in a 60-game sprint so I went ahead and put a little money on the -140 line… all while cursing myself for only putting $50 on the even money 1-1 line that Elite was offering as recently as the end of January. (Elite has not, that I’ve noticed, offered Divisional Championship lines since MLB announced they’d be resuming the season.)

William Hill’s dampened enthusiasm for the Twins is not reflected, however, in their odds on our guys winning the American League Pennant. In fact, those odds at William Hill have dropped from 7-1 when summer camps opened to 6-1 currently. That matches Elite’s current line.

Neither book has changed their outlook on the Twins winning it all. The Twins remain at 16-1 and 15-1 at William Hill and Elite, respectively.

As for the odds for all of the other favorites we’ve been following in this series, both books have remained unchanged on their odds for teams like the Yankees, Dodgers and Astros.

If you’re one of those poor sick souls who follow the Cubs closely, though, there’s been a little movement in the past few weeks.

William Hill has moved their odds on the Cubs winning the National League Pennant from 10-1 to 12-1 currently. Elite is unconvinced, however, leaving their line at 8-1. So if you’ve been looking for an opportunity to throw your money away on the Cubbies, now might be the time to do it. I haven’t noticed 12-1 being offered since the end of January.

Interestingly, the opposite is happening if you’re looking to bet on the Cubs to win the World Series. Elite has moved from 18-1 down to 15-1 on a Cubs championship. Not that it really should matter, given that you’ll want to be taking William Hill up on their unchanged 20-1 line, anyway, should you be in the market for this bet.

Finally, William Hill has added one additional interesting option – betting on which player will lead MLB in Runs + Home Runs. (At least that’s what I think “MOST RS HR’S” means, I’m still kinda new at some of this. If that’s not correct, oh well.) Mike Trout is the odds-on favorite at 12-1 odds, but I couldn’t resist putting $10 on the “Bringer Of Rain.” If Josh Donaldson comes through for me (and, of course, the Twins) over the next couple of months, I’ll make a cool $800 on that bet.

Make it rain, baby!

(NOTE: In this “Bet On It” series of posts, I refer regularly to the two online sportsbook services to which I subscribe legally as a resident of the state of Iowa. If you’re interested in checking out these services for yourself, you can do so by clicking William Hill and/or Elite Sportsbook.) 

When I posted Part 3 of this “Bet On It!” series back on March 8, it’s unlikely any of us could have foreseen that four months later we still wouldn’t have seen Major League Baseball’s Opening Day.

Within just a couple of weeks from the time that article was posted, pretty much all MLB bets had been taken off the board at the sportsbooks.

Now, as we try to celebrate our nation’s birthday, the two books that I’m a member of have begun to post some MLB baseball action, though neither William Hill nor Elite Sportsbook have a full range of options available yet.

There are enough, however, that it’s worth taking a fresh look at how the bookies are feeling about which teams are most likely to emerge with trophy hardware this season and, in particular, how they’re feeling about the Minnesota Twins.

To review, William Hill had the Twins at 12-1 odds to win the American League pennant and 22-1 to win the World Series before the club signed Josh Donaldson. After adding the slugger, betters at both William Hill and Elite have pushed those odds southward, to the point where, in early March, William Hill had the Twins at 7-1 to win the AL and 14-1 to win the Series. Elite was a little less enthusiastic about the Twins’ chances, setting their odds at 8-1 (AL) and 20-1 (WS) in March.

While William Hill has maintained their 7-1 line for the Twins to win the AL, their odds on winning the Series bounced back up to the 16-1 level they were at in mid-February.

Elite, meanwhile, is liking the Twins more than they did in March, rather than less. They now offer just 6-1 odds on a Twins pennant and 15-1 odds on a WS trophy.

Only William Hill has re-opened betting on team wins, setting the over/under at 35 wins for the Twins. Given the uncertainty of just how many of the scheduled 60 games will actually get played, I think I’ll leave that number alone.

Interestingly, though, William Hill puts the line at 33.5 wins for Cleveland and maybe even more interestingly, 32.5 wins for the White Sox. That seems high for Chicago, but I suppose it reflects an optimism based on them getting to play a significant percentage of their games against Detroit and Kansas City (not to mention the Pirates). Still, I’m going to have to consider putting some money on the under there.

Here’s something I’m still trying to figure out, though. The futures bets I placed during the offseason at Elite are still active, while those I booked at William Hill no longer show up in my account.

On Elite, I booked the Twins to win the AL Central back when I could still get even 1-1 odds and took a flyer on the Angels to win it all at 35-1 odds. But I also booked the Twins to win the AL at 11-1 and to win the Series at 22-1 on William Hill and those bets are nowhere to be found.

I’ve started combing through communications from William Hill concerning how they were going to treat MLB bets and all I’ve seen is that they would void bets on cancelled events (and I can appreciate them cancelling bets on team wins), but other futures bets would remain alive as long as a winner is eventually determined. So, yeah, I’d love to still have those 11-1/22-1 bets in play.

Neither of my sportsbooks appear to be offering bets on MLB Division winners at this point and the only prop bet I found featuring individual players was at Elite, where we can put some money on who we think will be the MLB home run king.

Mike Trout and Pete Alonso are listed at 8-1, while Christian Yelich and Cody Bellinger are at 10-1. We can also get 10- on “the field” and that seems to be a choice worth considering, to me.

Miguel Sano, at 20-1, is the sole Twins slugger among the 25 players listed. Think I’ll pass on that, thanks.

Revisiting a few of the other contenders, it doesn’t look like either William Hill or Elite have significantly changed their views on the MLB big dogs.

The Dodgers have overtaken the Yankees (barely) as the odds-on favorite to be the World Series Champion. The Dodgers are at +325 and the Yankees at +350 on William Hill. Both teams sit at 7-2 on Elite.

The Astros have tumbled a bit, though, on both sites. The two books have always viewed Houston’s chances very differently. In March, Wm Hill had them at 9-1, while Elite was more optimistic at 5-1. Now, William Hill has them posted at 12-1 and Elite at 6-1. I have to admit, if it didn’t mean having to potentially find myself rooting for the Astros, that 12-1 offering would be tough to pass up.

There’s a lot of talk about how the 60-game season could open the door for mediocre teams to get hot, qualify for the postseason and then potentially knock off one or two better teams to make a run toward the World Series.

So, maybe we should look for decent value bets along those lines. I like my bet on the Angels at 35-1 to win it all (if Trout decides to play, anyway), but are there other options, too?

As much as I’d love to see it happen, it’s hard for me to imagine anyone in the AL East finishing above the Yankees. The Red Sox are still sitting at a relatively inviting 17-1 to win the AL pennant, but they’d not only have to get hot enough to finish ahead of New York, but also top a pretty strong Tampa Bay team.

I could see the Angels or Athletics topping the Astros in the AL West, but I already have money on Los Angeles. Elite is offering 12-1 on Oakland winning the pennant, though, so that’s at least worth considering.

Forget the AL Central. The White Sox are at 12-1 on both sites, but I just don’t see them topping both Cleveland and Minnesota and then ALSO staying hot enough to nail down a pennant. They’re at least a year from putting that kind of run together.

In the National League, the Braves and Nationals will be tough, of course, but 10-1 on the Mets to win the NL pennant is worth thinking about, anyway. If you’re feeling adventurous, William Hill is giving you 15-1 on the Phillies, but that probably has something to do with having to fight through a gauntlet in that division (and their cross-league competition in the AL East), just to get to the postseason.

Like the Yankees in the AL East, the Dodgers in the NL West make it almost pointless to consider one of their Divisional rivals, but if you could hit on the Padres (20-1) or D’Backs (25-1) winning the NL pennant, the payoff would be healthy.

That leaves the NL Central and there’s perhaps at least one interesting option there. I don’t see an obvious dominant team (the two books can’t even agree on whether the Cubs or Cardinals are more likely to win the NL), so it wouldn’t be beyond reason to imagine the Reds or Brewers riding a hot streak or two.

Both teams are listed at 15-1 on Elite and either might be an option at that number. But over at William Hill, things get more interesting. They only give you 10-1 on the Reds, but they offer 20-1 on Milwaukee. That’s tempting.

That’s enough for today, I guess. I don’t know whether we’ll actually see MLB play games this summer and, honestly, I’m still not 100% convinced they should be playing.

But that won’t keep me from keeping an eye on the betting lines.

It has been over a month since we checked in on the MLB “Futures” at the William Hill and Elite sportsbooks and with spring training now well underway, it seems like a good time to see how the betting odds for the Twins (and others) are looking.

Of course, even if I see something really interesting, it won’t do me any good right now since I’m in Florida at least through the end of the month and the Sunshine State has not legalized sports betting, yet. So, while I can look up odds at the two booking sites I subscribe to, I can’t actually place any bets until I get back in Iowa.

Then again, with my inability to accurately predict college basketball games, that’s probably a good thing.

First, let’s take a look at an updated version of the chart outlining the Twins’ odds to succeed at various levels in 2020.

A couple of things jump out at us here and they’re mostly reflective of the folks at William Hill coming around to thinking the Twins might be better than originally thought.

William Hill’s odds on the Twins to win the American League pennant and the World Series have continued to drop.

Before the Twins signed Josh Donaldson, William Hill had the Twins at 12-1 and 22-1 to win the AL and World Series, respectively. Those numbers have improved to where they stand at 7-1 and 14-1 now. Interestingly, while Elite has adjusted their line on a Twins AL pennant from 10-1 to 8-1, they continue to see them as 20-1 longshots to win WS rings.

Overall, I’m feeling pretty good about booking my bets on the Twins to win the AL at 11-1 and the Series at 22-1. Now, all I need is for the guys to actually, you know, win!

Both books have increased the over/under on Twins regular season wins by one win since the end of January, with William Hill still projecting one more win than Elite does.

A few other interesting notes, just glancing at the differences between the two sportsbook sites:

Like everyone, they both like the Yankees to win it all. You get just a little above even money on the Yankees to win the AL pennant and a bit better than 3-1 odds on a bet to win the WS. There are so many other good teams that those odds don’t seem worthwhile to me. Let the Yankee fans feed the rest of us.

If you think the Astros can overcome their issues and ride their “us against the world” mentality into a repeat championship, you want to look at William Hill where you can get 9-1 odds on a Houston title. Elite is offering just 5-1 on the ‘stros. Both are third on the list behind the Yankees and Dodgers (3-1 WmH & 4-1 Elite).

In the last article, we saw a huge discrepancy between the two sites where the Red Sox were concerned. WmH had them at 12-1 to win the AL, while Elite had them at 5-1.

Man, the people who took that 5-1 bet are kicking themselves. They’ve become 18-1 at WmHill and 12-1 at Elite.

We also looked in on the Angels last time, when Elite was offering 17-1 odds on winning the AL and an almost irresistible 35-1 odds to win the Series (at least it was irresistible to me). That’s come down to 14-1 to win the AL and  30-1 on the WS now. The odds have remained at 10-1 (AL) and 18-1 (WS) at WmH.

How about that pesky team in Cleveland? They were getting 7-1 at Elite and 14-1 at WmH to win the AL last we checked in. Today, they’re at 12-1 at Elite, while remaining at 14-1 at WmH.

Looking at the American League Central race, while both sites have the Twins as favorites and the same predicted order of finish, there are some differences in the odds.

Cleveland gets just +120 to win the ALC at Elite, but 3-1 odds at WmH.

The White Sox get nearly identical lines (+350 Elite and +325 WmH). Of note, that puts Cleveland and Chicago in a virtual dead heat for the second spot in the Central, according to WmH.

I had to check the Royals lines several times to believe what I was seeing. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a discrepancy between the two sportsbooks like Kansas City’s odds to win the AL Central.

Elite set the line at +750. That’s 15-2 (or 7 1/2 – 1). But WmH will give you 60-1 odds on a Royals division championship. Now, I don’t see any way in hell the Royals win the AL Central, so maybe the odds don’t matter. But, still, that’s an incredible difference and a prime example of why you always want to shop around. Imaging being the Royals fan who decided to put a few bucks on their favorite team at Elite, only to later find out they could have gotten 60-1 odds at WmH.

The Tigers, of course, pull up the back end of the division, getting 125-1 odds at Elite and 300-1 at WmH.

Interestingly, Elite has Cleveland and Minnesota both at 20-1 to win the World Series (along with Milwaukee and Philadelphia at the same odds, placing them tied for 10th on the list of WS favorites). WmHill likes the Twins twice as much as Cleveland, though. While the Twins are at 14-1, Cleveland is at 28-1.

William Hill has set some additional prop bets that weren’t out there before, such as pitting two teams against one another in a race to see which will win 30 games first.

For instance, you can bet on whether the Twins or Braves will reach 30 Ws first. Braves are even odds, Twins at -120.

When you shift to Twins vs Astros on the same bet, the Astros are favorites at -130, while the Twins get you +110.

The Twins are favored to get to 30 before the A’s. Twins paying -125, while Oakland gets +105.

Are you tired of RBIs not being a meaningful offensive statistic? Put a little money on Nelson Cruz to be the MLB leader in ribbies at 15-1 odds. Or go crazy and take Josh Donaldson at 60-1. Eddie Rosario & Miguel Sano both list at 100-1.

Jorge Polanco will get you 28-1 odds if he finishes as the MLB leader in hits.

What will it take to lead the Majors in home runs this season? Is the ball still juiced or will it be deadened? The over/under is set at 50 1/2 bombas.

Think Jose Berrios is going to become the ace we’ve been waiting for? Go get the 40-1 odds being offered on Berrios being the MLB ERA leader.

So many options. How will I possibly be able to wait three weeks before I can throw my money away on them?

A couple of weeks ago, in the aftermath of the Minnesota Twins signing free agent third baseman Josh Donaldson, I checked in with sportsbooks at William Hill and Elite to see what effect the addition of the Bringer of Rain was having on the oddsmakers’ views of the Twins’ chances of winning their Division, the American League Pennant and the World Series in 2020.

As it turned out, the bookies weren’t exactly joining in Twins’ fans euphoria. The odds had shifted very little or not at all.

As I wrote then, however, I decided to follow this throughout the rest of the offseason (maybe even into the season) and see whether things change. In addition, I also noticed a few other interesting lines as I perused the William Hill and Elite Sportsbook sites this morning.

First, let’s take a look at what’s happening with the Twins’ odds for the 2020 season.

The long and short of it is that there isn’t a lot of movement and the differences between the two sportsbooks are shrinking or even disappearing, in some cases.

The one bet where it still pays to shop around is with regard to Minnesota’s odds to repeat as the American League Central Champions. At William Hill, the Twins’ odds have moved from -175 to -160, so they’re becoming bigger believers as time moves on. But if you want to put money on the Twins to win their Division, you still want to go to Elite to do it. They continue to list the Twins as an even-odds favorite to repeat. (A $100 bet on the Twins at William Hill will win you just $62.50 if they win the Central, where the same bet gets you $100 at Elite’s 1-1 odds.)

William Hill has brought their odds on the Twins winning the AL Pennant and the World Series directly in line with Elite’s line, which hasn’t changed since we checked in a couple of weeks ago. William Hill has brought their projected regular season wins total back a half-win, to 91 1/2 wins, however. Elite is where you want to go if you want to bet the over on Twins wins, however.  They’re at 90 1/2 wins. I couldn’t find where I checked what Elite had for Twins Total Wins a couple of weeks ago.

So, that’s the story on the Twins. But let’s move on and look at where else you might want to have some fun.

In the last article, I pointed out that, if you’re inclined to throw you’re money away, you could get much healthier odds on the Tigers and Royals to win the World Series at William Hill than at Elite. That’s still the case. In fact, the odds against the projected AL Central doormats are getting even longer. At William Hill, the Royals have moved from 200-1 to 250-1, currently. Previously at 500-1, the Tigers (along with the Orioles) are now at 750-1. At Elite, the Royals and Tigers sit at 125-1.

But if you’re really looking to flush your money down the toilet… I mean… if you’re looking for a value-buy, check out the Orioles. At Elite, the Orioles get you a measly 100-1 odds. But at William Hill, they sit right there with the Tigers at 750-1! I mean, if you’re going to throw $100 on a long shot, do you want to get ten grand when it pays off or would you prefer $75,000?

Silly talk right? Yeah, but I bet there’s one member of my immediate family who, assuming he reads this, is sitting there right now thinking hard about that Orioles bet.

There are a couple of more realistic (relatively speaking, anyway) options to give some thought to, though, when you compare odds being offered at these two books.

The Red Sox are still sitting at 5-1 odds to win the American League on Elite, but you can get 12-1 on the same bet at William Hill. Have to say, 12-1 on a Boston AL Pennant is pretty tempting.

If you think the AL East is just too tough for the Red Sox to fight through, how about a team that’s in a Division most people see as much easier to win? How are you feeling about Cleveland, for example? Yeah the Twins are loaded on offense, but Cleveland still has pitching and defense and that’s what wins championships, right?

Again, stay away from Elite, where they offer just 7-1 odds. You can get twice that (14-1) on Cleveland to win the American League at William Hill.

You might start to think that William Hill is simply the place to go for better odds, right? Not always, no. You know the Angels have been making some pretty strong moves. Maybe you think the Astros will falter when they’re forced to use trash cans just to collect trash. The Angels front office seems to think this is the year to go for it. What if they’re right?

If you want to get on the Halos’ bandwagon, you turn your attention away from William Hill (where they offer just 10-1 odds to win the AL Pennant) and give Elite your business, taking them up on their 17-1 offering for the same bet.

Believe it or not, though, they also play baseball in the National League! Let’s take a peek over there.

People in Minnesota may not be aware of this, but the Chicago Cubs have a pretty big following (especially down here in Eastern Iowa). I know, there’s no accounting for taste, but some people were just raised poorly and we shouldn’t hold it against them.

Most of these people, you would think, learned a long, long time ago never to bet on the Cubs. But some of them, still drunk on finally winning it all a few years ago, might be optimistic enough to consider putting some money on the Cubbies in 2020. If that describes anyone you know, the place to go is William Hill, where you can get 12-1 odds on the Cubs winning the National League (vs. just 6-1 at Elite) and an even healthier 25-1 on a Cubs World Series Championship (compared to 12-1 at Elite).

Yes, that means you get the same return at William Hill for the Cubs “merely” winning the NL Pennant that Elite is requiring a Cubs World Series trophy to get.

Of course, if you want the longest odds on Cubs bets, you might want to wait a few days. Now that Kris Bryant lost his case and is under club control for the extra year, it’s only a matter of time before he’s traded, right? That should bump the odds up a bit.

I guess that’s enough to ponder for today. Maybe we’ll check back in about the time Spring Training is getting underway.