Fixing the Twins Isn’t That Complicated

So this season has certainly de-escalated quickly, hasn’t it Twins fans?

Ask any group of Twins fans what went wrong and you’ll get a wide variety of responses. Of course, there’s no shortage of I-told-you-so’s going around out there, either. Haters gonna hate and nothing makes haters happier than when things go badly and they can loudly proclaim how smart they were to hate in the first place.

FacepalmThe thing is, I don’t think anyone is (or at least they shouldn’t be) shocked by what’s happening with the Twins. Was an 8-20 start “expected”? No, not by most of us. But I’m more disappointed than surprised and I would imagine that I’m not alone in feeling that way.

General Manager Terry Ryan clearly made the decision during the offseason that 2016 was going to be the year he would push the first wave of young potential stars into the big league fray. He wasn’t interested in adding any free agent that might block a significant young talent. His only big move was the addition of Korean slugger Byung Ho Park and that particular move is looking very good.

To appreciate why Ryan was relatively passive during the offseason, you have to start with the understanding that, all along, 2016 was going to be another season in the longer rebuilding process. I think most of us recognized that.

It would be the first full season of big league ball for Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario and Tyler Duffey.

It would, hopefully, be a near-full season of Byron Buxton and Jose Berrios.

Miguel Sano
Miguel Sano

We would also likely see significant Major League playing time for several more building blocks for what, at some point, could be the next great Twins team. That group might include Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, Alex Meyer and perhaps several other highly touted bullpen arms.

That’s a lot of youth and it’s probably unrealistic to expect all of those guys to perform well enough to propel the club into serious contention for a postseason spot.

Still, the Twins came real close to nabbing a wild card spot last year, so was it really unrealistic to expect them to improve the following season? Maybe, maybe not.

It’s not unrealistic to believe it’s POSSIBLE to improve on their prior season’s results, but you could argue that it was unrealistic to EXPECT so many young players to step up in one season, without any of them finding themselves overmatched, at least temporarily, by Major League competition.

Many of the challenges we foresaw occurring this season have become reality.

The Twins strike out a lot. Only the Astros and Blue Jays hitters have K’d more than the Twins so far in 2016. We knew this would happen and there was no shortage of warnings uttered before the season that it could be disastrous.

Miguel Sano has been a bad outfielder. We knew he wouldn’t win any gold gloves out there, but I’m not sure he’s been any worse than anyone would have expected. He’s actually shown some of his athleticism at times, even while also clearly not being confident that he can field the position well.

The hope was that Byron Buxton’s presence in center field would somewhat minimize the damage done while Sano learns right field on the fly. Then Buxton failed to get on track with the bat and had to be sat down and, eventually, demoted.

That problem was exacerbated by Eddie Rosario’s significant regression at the plate. While Oswaldo Arcia’s bat has perhaps made up for Rosario’s poor start, that also left the Twins with the prospect of having Arcia and Sano constitute two-thirds of the defensive outfield. That’s not optimal, by any means.

Yet, to me, if the worst problems this team had were on the offensive side, I wouldn’t be too worried.

They aren’t ripping through opposing pitchers, but there’s enough good stuff going on (Joe Mauer, Byung Ho Park, Sano, Arcia and surprising production from Eduardo Nunez and Danny Santana) that there would be time to get guys like Dozier, Buxton and Rosario on track (or replaced) and still have a very nice season.

Alas, the bats aren’t the worst problems.

Kyle Gibson
Kyle Gibson

The worst problems are exactly where they have been for years – on the pitchers’ mound.

We were uneasy about the bullpen going in. Maybe – MAYBE – Glen Perkins, Kevin Jepsen and Trevor May would hold down the back end of the bullpen, but starting the season with essentially the same mediocre (or worse) middle and long relief from a year ago was scary.

Then Perkins went on the Disabled List and Jepsen has been ineffective. Newcomer Fernando Abad and Michael Tonkin have looked good, but they’ve seemed to largely be used in situations where the Twins have already fallen behind, virtually wasting their effectiveness.

Ryan Pressly and Casey Fien have been awful and Ryan O’Rourke, since being promoted, hasn’t fared any better.

I’ve read comments that the starting pitching has been better than some expected. I don’t understand that at all.

Yes, we’re all very pleasantly surprised that Ricky Nolasco has made the decision to hand him the fifth rotation spot look extremely wise and Ervin Santana hasn’t been awful most of the time, but outside of that, I just don’t see why anyone thinks the starting pitching has been anything but a train wreck.

Phil Hughes and Kyle Gibson have been awful and Tommy Milone has been bad enough that he was the guy who eventually lost his rotation spot.

There’s some potential for improvement, perhaps. Jose Berrios has shown the filthy stuff he has in his two starts and, if he’s given time to settle into a routine, he could quickly become an effective big league starting pitcher. Tyler Duffey will never be confused with Berrios in terms of his stuff or velocity, but Duffey still looks better than at least 60% of the guys who opened the season in the Twins’ rotation.

The conclusion I’ve drawn from this is that “fixing” the Twins right now isn’t that complicated – or at least it doesn’t have to be.

I wouldn’t touch the offense right now. Let things play out a while and do what you have to do to get guys like Buxton, Kepler and Polanco raking in Rochester so they’re ready to come back up in a month or two and stick.

If you insist on making some kind of change, fine. Bring up catcher Juan Centeno from Rochester. At this point, I wouldn’t even care whether it was John Ryan Murphy or Kurt Suzuki that you replaced. Neither of them should figure in the long term plans for the Twins, anyway, and it might be time to promote either Stuart Turner or Mitch Garver from Chattanooga up to Rochester so they can both get regular innings behind the plate.

While you don’t want to read too much into one month of work, I don’t think there’s much risk in replacing Pressly, Fien and O’Rourke in the bullpen. I’d see what J.T. Chargois and Buddy Boshers have to offer.

J.T. Chargois
J.T. Chargois

My rotation, for now, would be Nolasco, Santana, Hughes, Berrios and Duffey. The stint on the DL that Gibson is doing gives the Twins some time to get good looks at Berrios and Duffey. I like continuing to see Meyer start at Rochester, until he proves once and for all that he’s best suited for bullpen work.

If Hughes doesn’t get it together, the Twins will need to figure out what “injury” he has and let him work through that while on the DL for a while, too.

The limited roster changes I’ve described would be a good start, but it shouldn’t be the end of the transition.

If the club is still wallowing toward the bottom of the standings a month from now (which seems almost certain at this point), it will be time to start dealing away those players who have some market value and likely aren’t part of the next generation of competitive Twins teams.

There’s no longer a reason to try to blend young players into a veteran clubhouse. Frankly, many of the young players coming up have won at Elizabethton, Cedar Rapids, Ft. Myers and Chattanooga over the past four years and they’re probably more equipped to create a “winning clubhouse atmosphere” at Target Field than the Twins’ veterans are.

I am not going to hold out much hope that the Twins will recover from their disastrous start to fight their way back into contention for even a wild card spot, but that doesn’t mean the season is over or that there shouldn’t/couldn’t be something well worth watching over the rest of the season.

It may not always be pretty and there will certainly be plenty for the haters to hate on, but it doesn’t have to be boring or meaningless – unless the front office allows it to become so.

Under Reconstruction

Whether it is an update to WordPress 4.5 or to the latest update to our Theme, one or the other caused us to lose the ability to use our custom banner, so we’ve brought back our old, original theme, for now, just to be able to use a version of our banner. It’s kind of like wearing a throwback jersey. 🙂

We will be attempting to resolve this issue and/or looking for a new “look” for our blog. In the meantime, we will continue to post occasional articles, even if the site itself doesn’t look quite the way we would like it to.

Steve

 

Who’s Going to Win in 2016?

I’ve been giving a lot of thought to the upcoming 2016 Major League season and I’ve gone through every division thoroughly enough to make predictions that I am absolutely confident in.

ouijaYeah, that’s a lie. In fact, that sentence included multiple lies. I’ve barely given a passing thought to the likely fortunes of any team in the National League, I can’t honestly say I’ve thoroughly considered any division and I’m not at all confident my predictions will be anything close to accurate.

Yet, here we are. The season is underway so I might as well make some predictions. After all, if I’m way off, I’ll never mention them again, but if I benefit from a healthy dose of dumb luck, I’ll have opportunities later in the season to link back to this post as evidence of how smart I am. Win-win.

Let’s start with the National League.

NL East:

1 – Nationals, 2 – Mets, 3 – Marlins, 4 – Phillies, 5 – Braves

Almost everyone seems to be handing this division to the Mets, but I think the Nats’ roster is just better and Dusty Baker will whip that roster from start to finish. Of course, he may whip them so hard that the organization won’t be competitive again for a decade, but that’s a different issue.

Ordinarily, I couldn’t imagine any way the Phillies would escape the division cellar, but that was until I looked at the Braves’ roster.

NL West:

1 – Giants, 2 – Dodgers, 3 – Diamondbacks, 4 – Padres, 5 – Rockies

As with the Mets, the Giants seem to be the consensus pick in their division. The Dodgers could be very good, but they also could be very mediocre. The Giants, at worst, will just be good, so I’ll take my chances with them.

NL Central:

1 – Pirates, 2 – Cubs, 3 – Cardinals, 4 – Reds, 5 – Brewers

Going back to swimming against the tide, I’m not going with the popular pick, which would be the Cubs. It has nothing to do with really not liking the Cubs or Cubs fans. Yeah, that’s another lie. It has everything to do with not liking the Cubs or their fans.

I do, however, really like the roster the Pirates have assembled and I think they’ll do very well.

NL Wild Card: I’m going with the Mets and Dodgers because the bottom three teams in their divisions are worse, in my opinion, than the bottom three in the Central. Oh, and I really don’t like the Cubs.

I’ll pick the Giants to win the National League pennant.

AL East:

1 – Blue Jays, 2 – Yankees, 3 – Red Sox, 4 – Rays, 5 – Orioles

I’m not sure there’s a division in baseball with one team that is more clearly the favorite, in my mind, than the AL East. Maybe the Red Sox will be much improved and maybe the Yankees will find the fountain of youth. I don’t think either is particularly likely, but one (or both) could happen and the Jays could still be good enough to take the division.

AL West:

1 – Astros, 2 – Mariners, 3 – Rangers, 4 – Athletics, 5 – Angels

I’d love to say I see the Astros regressing, but it’s just not likely. The Rangers are a popular dark horse pick, but I just don’t see it. I can, however, see Seattle bouncing back up into relevancy before Felix Hernandez’s career is completely wasted by the Mariners. And speaking of an organization completely wasting a future Hall of Famer’s career, the Angels are going to stink again, despite having the best player in baseball playing centerfield for them.

AL Central:

1 – Twins, 2 – Royals, 3 – Tigers, 4 – Indians, 5 – White Sox

I have three reasons for picking the Twins to win this division. One, I genuinely see them being much better than they were a year ago (at least if the decision to keep Nolasco in the Opening Day rotation is the last really costly decision the front office makes); two, there is no position in baseball in which one season’s exceptional performance is less likely to be repeated than that of relief pitcher and the Royals will not repeat if their bullpen suddenly becomes anything short of extraordinary. Combine that with three other teams who I simply can’t see as likely to be terribly strong and it means the Twins could see opportunity knock. Oh, and third, I really want to be able to point back to this post in October if the Twins do win this thing.

AL Wild Card: The Royals should easily get one of these spots. Frankly, I could see the Tigers getting the other, but I’m going to go with the Mariners because the AL West competition will be the worst of the three AL divisions.

I’ll take the Blue Jays to win the AL pennant and take home the championship trophy over the Giants in the World Series.

Now, please forget these picks unless and until a significant number of them turn out to be right and I link back to this post six or seven months from now.

-Steve

Twins Moving to Cedar Rapids

For some time, now, I have been trying to find ways to spend my “retirement” years involved with professional baseball. I’ve finally found the answer and decided that April 1 was the perfect time to release the announcement.

I have come to an agreement to purchase the Minnesota Twins from the Pohlad family and yes, I will be moving the club to Cedar Rapids. (I mean, it was either that or I had to move to Minnesota and, no offense, but I’ve lived there already. Pass.)

New Twins owner - me.
New Twins owner – me.

I’ve always wanted to own a Major League team and, like pretty much every Twins fan (or at least all of them who have access to the internet), I have always believed I could run the team better than anyone who actually was responsible for doing so.

As part of the agreement, the Twins’ Class A affiliation will be in Minneapolis, giving Target Field a tenant for at least as long as the original agreement required when taxpayers paid for construction.

Twins President (for now), Dave St. Peter, was pleased with this development.

“I’ve often said in the past that it would be nice to be able to watch the Twins’ young minor league talent play in the Twin Cities,” St. Peter said. “This agreement brings that dream to reality.”

I have scheduled a meeting with Cedar Rapids Mayor Ron Corbett to discuss how we can best go about adding an additional 35,000 seats to Veterans Memorial Stadium. I see no insurmountable issues there, as long as the city is willing to cough up the money for the renovations.

As for staff decisions, all positions will be posted at corridorcareers.com. All current Twins employees from St. Peter to every usher and beer vendor, will be invited to apply for their current positions (or any other job they might think they’d be good at). I learned in my experience in the professional world that is is the way progressive companies do things these days.

There is one exception to this policy. General Manager Terry Ryan will be retained.

I’ve made this decision for two reasons. First, I genuinely respect Mr. Ryan and, though I don’t always agree with his decisions, I believe he is very good at his job. Even if I didn’t feel that way about the GM, I’d keep him anyway, just because I know how much it’s going to piss off Twins bloggers/fans/commenters/know-it-alls all over Twins Territory.

There will be some pretty noticeable changes, however. For example, because of my fondness for the Iowa Hawkeyes, much of my wardrobe is black and gold. After paying for the Twins, I’m not going to also go out and buy a new wardrobe. The Twins’ colors will instead become black and gold.

Finally, while I will not be lifting the MLB.tv blackout policy from covering the entire state of Iowa, at least that blackout policy will finally make some sense.

I look forward to meeting all of the new Twins fans when the team opens the 2017 in Cedar Rapids. I hope those of you in the Twin Cities enjoy your final season of watching the Twins and I’m sure you will enjoy watching Midwest League games in the future.

-Steve

Will Write for Beer

I just returned from a 10 day vacation in Fort Myers, Florida. In a way, my annual trip to hang out on the grounds of the Minnesota Twins spring training complex is a “working vacation.” I do, after all, spend a lot of time there watching this season’s prospective Cedar Rapids Kernels and having conversations with front office staff, coaches and former Kernels players, all of which, I believe, prepares me to do a better job of writing about the Kernels once the season starts in April.

1422057369395This year’s trip to Florida, however, started out on a bit of down note. While enjoying some lunch at a Sonny’s BBQ in Georgia on the drive down, I checked my email and discovered that the degree to which my Florida trek would be a true “working” vacation was perhaps significantly lower than originally thought. I received word that MetroSportsReport.com, for whom I have been covering the Kernels for the past three baseball seasons, was suspending operations and my services would no longer be required.

The news didn’t come as a complete shock to me, for a couple of reasons.

First, perhaps, is because it wasn’t the first time in the past year that I’ve been invited to cease working for someone. Last summer, my “day job” employer of some 38 years also decided they no longer needed me to show up for work. So, being told I no longer have a job is just becoming a regular thing for  me.

Second, and more importantly for the purposes of this discussion, it simply is no longer surprising when any sportswriter (or anyone involved in a journalism business) finds him/herself out of a gig. It may be because of staff cutbacks, financial belt-tightenings, or, as is the case of MetroSportsReport.com, an entity determining that it is just too hard to keep a journalism business afloat.

I’m grateful to Jim Ecker, the owner of MSR, for having given me the opportunity to help cover Kernels baseball the past three seasons. I not only got paid to go to ballparks and write about baseball, but I gained a significant appreciation for the work that regular beat writers do. If you think that it’s easy to find an interesting angle for game stories that will draw readers’ interest night after night, you only need to try doing it for a week or two to learn you are very mistaken. Covering a beat – any beat – can be difficult work and the people doing that work are facing some tough truths in their chosen profession these days.

One of those difficult truths is that sportswriting (and news reporting in general), as a business, is challenged to find a way to stay relevant and financially solvent at the same time. Newspapers are losing circulation as people rely more and more on the internet as their channel of choice for news and information of all types. If the employer experiences revenue challenges, it’s not good news for those working for that employer, no matter how well they do their jobs.

I confess that I’m part of the problem because I haven’t subscribed to a newspaper in this millennium.

It used to be that when I wanted to buy or sell something, the first thing I did was open the Cedar Rapids Gazette. I’d look for local sales. Maybe I would check the personal ads for a used snowblower or place an ad to sell a set of golf clubs I no longer needed. When was the last time any of us did that? Everything I want is now available with a couple of keystrokes.

Of course, I still like to read about local sports. Fortunately, the Gazette has an online site where I can find the latest game stories and columns about the Iowa Hawkeyes and the Cedar Rapids Kernels and the Hawkeyes and, pretty much every day, several more stories about the Hawkeyes.

And I don’t pay a nickel for any of it. On the Gazette site, I read the work of Jeff Johnson, Marc Morehouse, Mike Hlas and Scott Dochterman regularly and they don’t see a cent from me.

Sure, I have to answer a survey (or at least indicate I choose not to answer a survey) to read the story I want, but I don’t mind that.

I read the St. Paul Pioneer Press coverage of the Twins and Vikings regularly and I don’t pay anything for that. Sorry, Mike Berardino, you’re getting none of my money, either.

The Minneapolis Star-Tribune started charging a few bucks for full access to their online site a few years ago. I’m sure they experienced resistance to that policy, but not from me. I pay the monthly charge because I value their coverage of the Twins and Vikings enough that it’s worth it, to me. I guess that means that Phil Miller, LaVelle E. Neal, Howard Sinker and Matt Vensel are taking a couple pennies out of my pocket, but I think I’m getting good value for those pennies.

I read recently that one of the original Twins bloggers, Aaron Gleeman, lost his writing job with NBCSports.com. I paid nothing to find that information out. I read that information free on Twitter. I paid exactly that same amount to read Aaron’s writing work with NBC and, I suspect, that’s a big reason why Gleeman is looking for a new gig now.

We all know the various ways that organizations, big and small, have been trying to monetize online content. The surveys I mentioned the Gazette using are common. MSR tried (ultimately unsuccessfully) to rely on local advertising sales of static ads for each section/page of the site. TwinsDaily.com, where many of us in the Twins fan community spend a good chunk of our time, has used video ads in addition to the static ads. They also publish sponsored content.

Some online advertising is flat out annoying. I don’t care how much I enjoy your content, if you have ads that blast commercials at me any time my mouse happens to roll over the wrong point on your site, I’m not going to spend much, if any, time at your site.

The annoying ads are coming back to bite the online publishers, however. They led to what should have been seen as the inevitable development of “ad blocker” programs. I don’t use such a program, but my understanding is that they not only block the annoying ads, but even the unobtrusive ads. That’s a problem for anyone trying to make a living from publishing news online.

Some of the “big boys” in the business (NY Times, Wall Street Journal, etc.) have fought back and will not allow users of ad blocking applications to access their sites. They can afford to do that. Most others are going to have to find another way to continue making some amount of money from their online content.

By now, if you’re still reading this, you are probably wondering why this is so interesting to me that I’m writing about it. The answer is pretty simple. Have I mentioned that I’ve lost two jobs now in the past few months?

I’m much more fortunate than most of my fellow suddenly unemployed writers. I’ve got a pension and retirement account sufficient to assure I’ll have a roof and food and I’ve reached the age where I can tap those accounts without tax penalties.

I’ll survive. But I’d like to do more than just survive. I’d like to continue generating a little income from any time I spend somewhere other than on the golf course (I’m sure as heck not going to make any money ON the golf course, with my game).

When you “retire,” as I have, you get one consistent piece of advice: “Now you can look for ways to earn some money doing the things you enjoy doing.” What’s often, but not always, left unspoken is the last phrase of that sentence, which would go something like, “… instead of spending 50-60 hours a week enduring the soul-poisoning BS you’ve been putting up with at your job all those years.”

There’s certainly some truth to that sentiment in my case. I haven’t missed my old day job for one second since the day I walked out of the office. Missed some of the people, but not the job itself for a single moment.

But I’m still dealing somewhat with the, “what do I do now?” thing.

I’ve got one particular project lined up that I’m really looking forward to. For now, anyway, that would fall into the “volunteer work” category more so than “gainful employment.” If it goes well, that could eventually change, however, and it will definitely be something I’ll enjoy doing.

But I really do enjoy writing and it would be nice to at least make enough money from it to support my developing craft beer consumption habit and, just maybe, a bit more than that, so that my retirement income sources stretch a bit longer. Is that too much to ask?

Ordinarily, it wouldn’t be. But my interest, in this case, happens to coincide with an environment in which people who are much more experienced and talented at the work are losing their jobs every day because the people who pay them can’t figure out how to get consumers to pay them enough to support the costs of providing content. And that sucks.

For now, I’m going to continue writing, even if my material only appears here at Knuckleballs and, possibly, also over at Twins Daily, at least occasionally.

We at Knuckleballs have never received a cent of revenue from the site. We don’t include advertising of any kind and we have rejected all offers of sponsored content. Our content has remained the very essence of free content. That may continue or it may not.

I believe that it is (or should be) reasonable for us, as consumers, to expect to pay something for the information, opinions and other content we want to enjoy. People who go to the effort to provide that content, even an old part-timer like me, should rightfully expect to receive some form of remuneration for the work put in if the content we provide is deemed worthy of being read.

Unfortunately, smarter people than I have failed, thus far, to come up with a reliable system that accomplishes that.

A small operation like Knuckleballs, in the hands of someone who has some financial flexibility, might be able to experiment a bit with new options.

Ironically, that would require a lot more research and work on my part, for which I would continue to be uncompensated.

It’s a vicious circle, I tell you. Maybe I need to go to my favorite neighborhood bar while I contemplate things. Anyone want to buy me a beer?

-Steve

Knuckleballs Fantasy Baseball League

24250_383241156685_4432115_nOk, folks, it’s that time of year again! Knuckleballs (more precisely, me) runs an EZ League each year. We have 4 open slots for teams to join up.

It’s a FREE Yahoo head-to-head league with an autodraft so you don’t HAVE to know anything in advance but you still have the option to preset your draft rankings according to your own wishes too. That means if you have a friend or loved one that doesn’t know as much about baseball as you do but you’d like to see if you can’t get them to join you in something related, this could be your chance!

I’ll be setting the league to draft at 9 am CT on Monday, March 28.

Use the “contact us” link above to let me know if you want to join in but it’s first come, first served so act quickly!

Sunday Morning Comic Relief

Yeah, this could very well be why I’m primarily a baseball fan…

Minnesota Vikings fans express their displeasure with a proposed domed stadium during a snowy NFL football game against the Philadelphia Eagles at Met Stadium in Bloomington, Minn. on Dec. 3, 1978. (Pioneer Press: Mark Morson)
Minnesota Vikings fans express their displeasure with a proposed domed stadium during a snowy NFL football game against the Philadelphia Eagles at Met Stadium in Bloomington, Minn. on Dec. 3, 1978. (Pioneer Press: Mark Morson)

yeah, it’s currently -14 degrees as I sit in my cozy warm house making cinnamon rolls.. -25 degree windchill. Of course, it’s supposed to warm up.. to +2, maybe, with -15 degree windchill.

Dear LORD why wouldn’t you just watch that on TV?!? but you know there will be devoted fans out there dressed warmly or stupidly, depending on their level of consumption, and hoping that the Vikings can do something against the Seahawks.. of course, this is NOT the Bud Grant Vikings of old.. I don’t think they have the same home field advantage in this cold because our boys don’t really play in this that often either. Entertainingly, they are using the U’s HOCKEY ARENA as a “warming house” for fans for today’s game.. seriously.. the place they keep ICE COLD. *shakes head*

But yes, I’ll be watching just like the rest of Minnesota because when you’re a Minnesota sports fan, you’re a glutton for punishment.. how else could I still be a Twins fan?! 😉 – BS

PS – there’s a fun write-up in the Pioneer Press about cold games – this one is likely to be in the top 10 coldest we have played here.. go figure.

PPS – Vikings Journal just posted this on facebook.. LOL

12507348_1135506179801466_7849610648877464135_n
Via KARE 11: It is so cold right now at TCF Bank Stadium that the Gjallarhorn has shattered.

PPPS – This is how Jim Crikket is preparing for today’s Vikings game – fireplace, recliner, Vikings blanket.  SKOL!

20160110_111520_HDR