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Posts in category Offseason

More Thoughts on the Twins/Kernels Affiliation

Sep20th
2012
Written by Jim Crikket

The Cedar Rapids Kernels held a press conference Wednesday to introduce their new Major League affiliate, the Minnesota Twins. It was actually more of a public introduction to which the press was invited, but that was certainly the right approach by the Kernels. Affiliation changes are big deals in the local communities and when your organization hasn’t had a change in 20 years, it’s an even bigger deal.

(Image: Kernels.com)

I would have liked to attend, dressed head to toe in Twins gear like many of the crowd gathered in the Kernels’ conference room, but my schedule didn’t really allow for it yesterday. My conflicting meeting did end early enough for me to tune in to the live streaming feed being broadcast online by one of the local media outlets, so I did get to see some of the comments from the Twins’ Bill Smith and then most of the questions being fielded from media and the public by Smith and Jim Rantz.

For a good sense of how the press conference went and the enthusiasm expressed by pretty much all in attendance, from the Kernels, the Twins and the public, check out Jeff Johnson’s report  at the Cedar Rapids Gazette’s website. There’s a video clip, as well. Jeff covers the Kernels beat for the Gazette (as well as the local Junior Hockey League team, the RoughRiders), so some of you might want to start following Jeff via the usual social media outlets.

I admit that I have reasons for being happy about this affiliation that go beyond the obvious advantages for the Kernels and 99% of the baseball fans in the area. Yes, the Twins farm system is stronger than the Angels right now and probably will be so for quite a while. The Twins build their MLB team from within, while the Angels have become one of the richest teams in baseball and will likely continue to build by buying free agents and supplement them with the occasional super-prospect they uncover, such as Mike Trout.

If you run a minor league team, you’re better off with a MLB affiliate committed to drafting and developing talent. of course, we could debate how well the Twins have been doing that the past few years, but let’s do that another time. The fact is, that’s their model. So make no mistake, this is a huge “win” for the Kernels and we congratulate their Board and GM Doug Nelson for getting this deal done.

The Twins have a good fan base in the area and this deal clearly makes those of us who are members of that base happy. That should translate in to a few more butts in the seats at the local ballpark, but not nearly as many more as having a competitive team on the field would account for. From that standpoint, the Twins’ timing couldn’t be better. It would be almost impossible for them to send a team to Cedar Rapids next season that would lose more games than the team the Angels sent this season. Their 53-86 record was by far the worst in the Midwest League.

There’s been a lot said and written about how much better next year’s team is likely to be and the Twins brass certainly has brought up the success that their Appy League team in Elizabethton had in 2012 as evidence that expectations should be high in Cedar Rapids next year. That’s fair and I, too, believe the team has the potential to be very good.

But before we order MWL championship rings quite yet, Kernels fans (and Twins fans, too) need to keep one often-overlooked fact in mind. There’s a reason Elizabethton wins a lot and that players who move from E’town to Class A sometimes don’t look as good as hoped right away.

Those players are skipping a level of competition in the process.

No, they aren’t skipping a level within the Twins organization, but there is a whole level of minor league ball that the Twins have elected not to have an affiliate in and that’s “Class A-short season.” Many of the players that Max Kepler, Byron Buxton and their friends were up against this year will be sticking around extended spring training for their respective clubs and then playing in the NY-Penn League or Northwest League next summer, while many of the Elizabethton players are skipping straight to Cedar Rapids in April.

I don’t necessarily think there’s anything wrong with the Twins’ approach, but I’d point out that it does fly in the face a bit of the perception among many fans that the Twins don’t push their players through the system quickly. That case might be made for some guys after they reach the full-season minor league level, but not so much before that. Of course, we also know that guys do stick around E’town for more than one season at times, too, but that still means those players have faced somewhat lesser competition levels by the time they reach the MWL.

Just sayin’ there’s more to the issue than what we see on the surface sometimes and while I’m anxious and excited to see the team the Twins put on the field in Cedar Rapids next season, I’m not expecting them to go undefeated or anything.

But, as I said, I have other reasons for liking this match-up between Minnesota and my home town team and they are admittedly very selfish reasons.

First, obviously, it gives me more stuff to write about here at Knuckleballs. Don’t worry, this will not become an “all Kernels, all the time” blog. It has been, is, and will continue to be primarily a Twins blog. But we’ve always reserved the right to write about whatever we darn well please, Twins-related or not. That’s why you’ve had to put up with me writing about the Kernels before… and the Hawkeyes… and Arlo Guthrie’s “Alice’s Restaurant.” But, yeah, I’ll clearly have a much better excuse to write more about the Kernels next season now that they’re part of the Twins family. How much more remains to be seen, but I’ll certainly mention them from time to time (that’s me… the king of understatements).

But, speaking of my Alice’s Restaurant rant from a ways back, here’s my REAL selfish reason for wanting this relationship: I have come to believe that this affiliation is my last-best hope of ever seeing Twins baseball on cable television in Cedar Rapids. In fact, if I HAD been at the press conference Wednesday, I probably would have asked the Twins crew if there was any chance this deal might nudge Fox Sports North and Mediacom together to the point where FSN would at least be an option on the local cable system.

So, imagine my pleasure when someone in the crowd asked pretty much that exact question.

Of course, I was less impressed with the Twins response, but hey… I’m not giving up hope. Rome wasn’t built in a day and signing an affiliation agreement won’t make Eastern Iowa a full-fledged member of “Twins Territory” overnight. I’m a patient man. (Stop that laughing, right now!)

While the Twins people did give the same standard, “that’s out of our control,” response to the television question that their President, Dave St. Peter gave to me last winter, they did mention a few other ways that they plan to work on as initial steps to make us all feel like part of the Twins family.

For instance, it sounds like Cedar Rapids may well get a stop on the Twins Caravan in January. That’ll be nice. I’ve never made the effort to drive a couple hours north to Mason City or whatever border community the Twins have ventured in to previously, but they do sound like fun events. I would expect a very big crowd in CR for that if/when it comes to pass.

By the way, I believe Kernels staff will also be set up at Twinsfest in January, so if you attend, make sure you stop by and say hi. Doug and his folks are a great group of hard-working people that I’m sure you’ll enjoy getting to know. (Tell them I said that, will ya? I could use the brownie points.)

The Twins reps also alluded to making efforts to find a local radio affiliate to carry Twins games on the radio. They mentioned also that they’re excited about the fact that all of the Kernels games are carried on the radio and that Twins fans everywhere will be able to catch those games online. In addition, those of you who are blessed to be in an area that does carry FSN, it sounds like you may actually get to watch a few Kernels games on FSN next summer.

Honestly… I think that’s great. Good for all of you. But you have to admit that it’s ironic (or, to my mind, moronic) that you folks in Minneapolis may well have more opportunities to see Kernels games on your televisions than I’ll have to watch Twins games here in Cedar Rapids, because of the MLB blackout of the Twins on MLB.tv, etc. But that’s all I’ll say about that… today.

For now, I’ll just say it feels good to be at least one step closer to having my home town become a real part of Twins Territory. Thank you and congratulations again to the Kernels organization, as well as the Twins.

I’m ready for spring training to begin.

- JC

CR Kernels, Minor Leagues, Twins baseball
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Twins Predictions

Apr4th
2012
Written by Eric Pleiss

Real live baseball (in America) begins tonight, before ramping up on Thursday, leading to the Twins’ opener on Friday in Baltimore.  With opening ceremonies in mind, here are the Knuckleballs Twins Predictions for 2012:

Pitcher of the Year: Scott Baker (minor early season DL stint not-withstanding) Baker was the best of a bad Twins pitching staff in 2011, despite missing chunks of the season on the Disabled List.  I couldn’t tell you why I think he’s going to be healthy and productive this year (which already seems like a bad idea), but I think he will be great.  Jim Crikket thinks that Francisco Liriano will be the best pitcher of the year.   His spring numbers were very positive, he limited his walks and earned plenty of strike outs.  Unfortunately, if you look back just a little farther to his Winter numbers, they’re terrible.  Let’s hope the recent results tell more of a story for 2012.

Hitter of the Year: Justin Morneau  ”Morneau is swinging like I haven’s seen him swing in a couple of years. Vicious cuts.” – Jim Crikket  Again, these are only Spring Training at bats, but ever since Morneau flipped the switch and hit two home runs in a game a couple weeks ago he’s been a man on fire.  Moving into the DH position and focusing solely on hitting seems to be working for Morneau.  Success in 2012 will help distance Morneau from his 2010 concussion and he could be playing first base everyday by the All-Star Break.

Defender of the Year: I wanted to select Alexi Casilla as the defender of the year, hoping against hope that he will remain focused, healthy, and attentive at second base and play more than 100 games for the first time in his career.  Jim wanted to go with Denard Span, because for the Twins to succeed in 2012 Span is going to need to cover huge amounts of ground in the left field and right field gaps (gaps which are now wide open with the move to put Josh Willingham and some combination of Trevor Plouffe and Ryan Doumit in the corners).

Rookie of the Year: Chris Parmelee/Liam Hendriks If Parmelee continues to hit like he did last September and this Spring he’ll be a top choice for the Twins’ best rookie.  The other candidate, who made the 25 man roster and will open the season in the starting rotation is Liam Hendriks.  Hendriks was probably slated to come up after 5-10 AAA starts, but because Scott Baker and Jason Marquis are not ready to start the season Hendriks gets a chance to showcase his skills earlier than anticipated.  If he keeps his spot in the rotation when both Baker and Marquis are back you’ll know he’s pitching well and on track to steal a Rookie of the Year award from Parmelee.

Most Valuable Player: Justin Morneau The engine that makes the Twins go is Joe Mauer, but Mauer is even better with a healthy Justin Morneau hitting behind him, forcing pitchers to attack Mauer allowing him to hit doubles all over spacious Target Field and driving in runs for the Twins.  If Morneau comes back and is indeed the hitter of the year, selecting him as the MVP will be as much about what he does as an individual, as what he does in the lineup to help those around him.

Comeback Player of the Year: Francisco Liriano Obviously Justin Morneau is a candidate here if he hits well and helps the team succeed, but after a horrendous 2011, if Liriano returns to his 2010 form he’s one of the best players in baseball.  If Morneau and Liriano are both All-Stars, this team will be lucky to two potential comeback players on their squad.

Expected Record: The Marcel projections peg the Twins for just a 70-92 record, relying heavily on the Twins’ 2011 results as a predictor of 2012 success (and a heavy dose of regression to the mean).  Even if Joe Mauer’s Cindarella Spring Training Clock strikes midnight and he turns in another injury plagued 2012, simply trading Drew Butera for Ryan Doumit means turning a -1.2 WAR into a 1.2 WAR, 2.4 additional wins, and that’s not even factoring in upgraded seasons the Twins are likely to receive from Denard Span, Alexi Casilla, Jamey Carroll (vs. Tsuyoshi Nishioka), Danny Valencia, and at least half of the Twins’ pitching staff.  Assuming then that the 70-92 record is the worst that the Twins could do in 2012, what is a reasonable expectation for the Home 9?  My best guess, 82-80, Jim Crikket is more optimistic, suggesting even 86-76 for the Twins.  Either way, the Twins are going to be competitive, entertaining and might even be relevant in September.  Will any of this come to pass?   I don’t know, but we’ve got 162 games to find out.  Bring on the baseball!

-ERolfPleiss

General    0, 2012 Preview, Alexi Casilla, Chris Parmelee, Danny Valencia, Denard Span, Drew Butera, Jamey Carroll, Jason Marquis, Joe Mauer, Josh Willingham, Justin Morneau, Liam Hendriks, Ryan Doumit, Scott Baker, Trevor Plouffe, Tsuyoshi Nishioka
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Ebay and the Minnesota Twins

Mar26th
2012
Written by Eric Pleiss

Photo credit: http://www.baseball-almanac.com

I really enjoy collecting random, mostly worthless, Minnesota Twins memorabilia.  My 1989 Kirby Puckett bottle cap coin might be the best example of this.  These types of coins are usually sold for $1 on Ebay, and even then, they’re over priced by the time you have paid for shipping.  Still, I could not help but buying up a handful of them and adding them to the growing pile of Twins junk collecting dust in the corner of my bedroom.

My favorite method for acquiring these items is Ebay.  I usually search for “Minnesota Twins” and then sort by items ending soonest.  If I can bid on something that is ending in less than a minute, and pay less than $3, including shipping, I have no problem pulling the trigger.  Several weeks ago I was browsing the quickly expiring Minnesota Twins auctions and I came across a pair of game used pants worn by former Twins player and coach, Rick Renick.  The pants eventually sold outside of my modest price range, but ever since then I have been drawn towards the odd and outrageous Minnesota Twins items on Ebay.  What are the weirdest Twins things on Ebay, and do you need to own them?

To help you make that decision, here are my 10 favorite Minnesota Twins auction listings:

10. Do you have $3,595 extra dollars laying around?  Are you in love with the 1987 World Championship team?  How about buying a 1987 Minnesota Twins World Series trophy?! The item description makes no substantial claim of authenticity, and there is no indication who owned this trophy at the time of the championship (though the author would like you to think it might have been Kirby Puckett’s judging from the auction listing) Enjoy this  ”authentic “World Series trophy, it will definitely tie your memorabilia collection together.

9. For only $7.99 this autographed Boof Bonser photograph from 2007 could be yours.  Imagine how jealous your friends will be when they see this 8×10 beauty hanging on the wall of that old fish house that’s been sitting in your back yard for the past 10 years.  Buy this photo if you love awkward stares from number 4 starters.  Don’t buy this photo if you have a jealous lover, because when you love Boof, you cannot love another.

8. Remember when Francisco Liriano was terrible in 2011?  How would you like to own a piece of that miserable history with a Game Worn Jersey!!!  For just a tick under $400 (plus $12.99 shipping) you could own an official game used jersey, that the seller describes and probably maybe kinda sorta game used (at least it has been well worn).  If you have $412.98, and you have not yet bought this, you have the will power of Superman.

7. You might buy this next item if you are Delmon Young‘s biggest fan, and you love autographed rookie cards.  I can’t figure out if the seller is selling just a single card, or a set of four cards, with two that are nearly identical.  Either way, this lot will cost you $375.  Too pricey for me, but certainly not for an eccentric billionaire who hates defense, effort, and tiny lips.  READ MORE »

Former Twins, General, Offseason    Boof Bonser, Chuck Knoblauch, Delmon Young, Francisco Liriano, Kirby Puckett, Rick Renick, Rod Carew, Ron Coomer
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One More Decision Bud Selig Won’t Make

Feb14th
2012
Written by Jim Crikket

Admit it… as soon as you read yesterday’s post about Bud Selig and the decisions he is incapable of making, you knew this was coming, didn’t you?

Yes, I’m going to rant… again… about broadcast blackouts and how MLB doesn’t seem to give a rat’s ass about fans throughout Iowa and parts of Nevada (and a few other states) where fans are literally prevented from watching just about any team they care at all about play baseball on cable television or the internet.

I won’t rehash the issue in its entirety. You can click here to read all about it or just type “blackouts” in the search window at the top of our site to bring up any number of my previous rants on the topic. Here, I’ll just provide a little updated rant.

At a Hot Stove banquet the week of Twinsfest, I had the pleasure of listening in on a Q&A session with a panel that included Twins President Dave St. Peter. With encouragement from a fellow Twins fan and blogger who shall remain nameless (other than to say he has a view from Section 219 of Target Field for several Twins games a year) and emboldened by the beer or five I had during dinner and the following couple of hours, I asked Mr. St. Peter whether the Twins would ever address the crazy “blackout” issue that prevents me and my fellow Iowans from seeing Twins games either on cable television or via the internet.

St. Peter admitted that Iowa was in the middle of a “Bermuda Triangle” (his words) and that he and the Twins would like to see the situation changed, but the matter is dictated by MLB’s broadcast rights policy and any changes would have to come from league headquarters. He also suggested I write to Iowa’s Congressional delegation.

Frankly, I was surprised someone in baseball would actually encourage a fan to complain to my Senators and Congressman about MLB (because certainly he must be aware that such a complaint would naturally include a suggestion that baseball’s anti-trust exemption be considered for review), but I let the matter drop at the time.

I didn’t bother to let him know that I had already written a polite letter (really… I CAN be polite when I want to be… and when I think it might be more productive than being brutally honest) to Commissioner Selig a couple of years ago about the blackout policy and got exactly the kind of response I expected. That is to say, no response whatsoever.

I also didn’t point out ot Mr. St. Peter that this issue has been raised by far more influential people than I, such as former MLB president Bob DuPuy, who lobbied for an end to the blackouts… in 2008… with no effect whatsoever.

Of course, I don’t really expect Bud Selig to step in and make a decision regarding the broadcast blackouts. After all, we’re talking about a guy who is seemingly paralyzed by inaction regarding any decision at all that might not be 100% okie-dokie with all of the owners and all of the Networks, so it’s not logical to think he’d make a decision on this matter either.

Then again, considering the decision he did make on the whole All-Star Game/World Series home field thing, maybe we’re all just better off waiting for the next Commissioner anyway. After all, Selig will retire when the latest “last” extension is up in two years, right?

Yeah… right.

- JC

~You can get anything you want at Alice’s Restaurant~

General    Blackouts, Bud Selig, Dave St. Peter
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Bud Selig: The Peter Principle Inaction

Feb13th
2012
Written by Jim Crikket

You might think the headline was a typo… that it was meant to say, “Bud Selig: The Peter Principle In Action.” Nope. I meant it exactly as I typed it.

You’re all familiar with “the Peter Principle,” right? It’s the organizational principle that states, “in a hierarchy every employee tends to rise to his level of incompetence.” Here’s the Wiki synopsis:

The principle holds that in a hierarchy, members are promoted so long as they work competently. Eventually they are promoted to a position at which they are no longer competent (their “level of incompetence”), and there they remain, being unable to earn further promotions. Peter’s Corollary states that “in time, every post tends to be occupied by an employee who is incompetent to carry out their duties” and adds that “work is accomplished by those employees who have not yet reached their level of incompetence.” “Managing upward” is the concept of a subordinate finding ways to subtly “manage” superiors in order to limit the damage that they end up doing. (emphasis is mine)

There’s a very strong example of the “managing upward” corollary sitting atop Major League Baseball.

I wasn’t at all surprised last month when MLB announced that Bud Selig’s contract had been extended two years. Disappointed? Yes… but far from surprised. In fact, I’ll only be surprised if the MLB team owners eventually do kick Selig out of his office while he’s still breathing. 

Why should they? The owners with the most clout (read: owners of teams with the greatest revenue streams) have been successfully “managing upward” for years. If they hired a new Commissioner of Baseball, there’s a pretty good chance that he or she would come in and expect to be able to make decisions in the best interests of baseball. The big market owners sure don’t want that.

Sure, paying a guy $23 million a year to make no decisions might sound like a lot of money, but each team’s share of his salary is less than the price of a below-Replacement Level Player. That’s chump change (an appropriate turn of a phrase in this case) to the bazillionaires who own MLB teams.

But wait, didn’t Bud Selig lead baseball through an unprecedented era of labor peace and didn’t he implement the toughest drug testing program in professional sports? Yes… of course he did. If you actually believe he “decided” any of that, rather than those decisions all being made as part of collective bargaining sessions. I’m sure there was not a lot of unilateral decision making by the Commissioner in those sessions, folks.

Bud Selig

Then again, Selig’s fingerprints did seem to be all over the Mitchell Report. You remember the Mitchell Report, right? It was Bud’s response to being called in on the carpet by Congress for providing impotent leadership on PEDs. Imagine that… perhaps the most impotent body of “decision makers” in the country criticized Selig for his lack of leadership. That ought to tell you something. The Mitchell Report itself was the kind of work product you would expect from a group with no subpoena power and which leaked almost as many names that ultimately did NOT show up in the report as those who did. (I’m betting Jeff Bagwell still would like to know who he should see about that little matter, since so many HOFvoters seem to think he was ”named” in the Mitchell Report.)

Still, maybe we’re being a bit unfair. After all, drug testing and labor negotiations are huge and complicated matters. No one person could have stepped up and unilaterally made the kinds of decisions necessary to work through those issues. Commissioners’ decisions are more geared toward the less complicated, “keep the trains running on time” issues that pop up occasionally, like… well… like how to determine home team in the World Series, I guess. After all, he stepped up and made a great call on that matter, right?

In that vein, here are a few more decisions that you would think the Commissioner should be able to take a swing at:

Playoffs:

The big news in the off-season was that the Astros will be moving to the American League in 2013, as part of a realignment geared toward bringing consistency to the number of teams in each league/division and in scheduling. As part of the reorganization, we’ll have two wild card teams in each league that will play one game against one another to determine which of the wild cards will move in to the Divisional Series. Personally, while it’s been widely criticized, I’m on board with that. But we’ve been waiting for months to find out whether the new playoff format will be implemented this year or not.

Selig apparently wants it implemented now. But there are scheduling challenges and clearly the Networks and the people who would have to address those challenges would have easier lives if MLB waited until 2013 to implement the new format. So, the only way the format will be changed this season is if Bud Selig stands up and says, “just frigging get it done!” Yeah… THAT’S not gonna happen.

So we’ll just continue to sit around and wait without a resolution until it just becomes too late to make any changes and Bud will shrug and say, “I tried.”

The Oakland/San Jose Athletics:

The A’s play in a really bad excuse for a ballpark in a community not inclined to do much to change the situation. Several years ago, their owner decided he wanted to move his team down the road to San Jose, where a new stadium could be built and a “genius” GM like Billy Beane could finally compete on a level playing field with the rest of the league.

The problem is, San Jose is considered part of the “home market” of the San Francisco Giants and the Giants aren’t crazy about letting the A’s move in to “their” market. The Giants gloss over a few things, of course, such as the fact that the reason San Jose is part of their home market is that they asked the Athletics to relinquish THEIR rights to San Jose years ago when the Giants were contemplating moving there, themselves. Then they got a new downtown stadium in San Francisco and their plans (or was it a threat?) to move ended. So now that the Athletics want to move there, instead, the Giants won’t give back the rights to the area.

Sounds like a call that a Commissioner should make, right? After all, we’re talking about deciding a matter in the best interests of baseball.

But Selig couldn’t bring himself to make a decision like this without knowing all the facts, so he established a group to study the matter… THREE YEARS AGO.

Today, there’s still no word from Selig on the issue and, by God, A’s owner Lew Wolff is pissed off and tired of waiting. Word from the Commissioner’s office in December was that a decision was coming by February (no word on whether or not Selig has allowed his staff to flip the calendar pages past January 31 at MLB headquarters).

Still, how important is this to Wolff, compared to the prospect of having a Commissioner who might actually WANT to make decisions? All you need to know is that Wolff voted with his peers to extend Selig’s contract two more years. Maybe you’ll have that decision sometime in 2015, Lew.

Compensation for Theo Epstein:

Last fall, Red Sox GM Theo Epstein was hired by the Cubs to run their team, despite having time remaining on his contract with Boston. The clubs apparently agreed that they would work out compensation later and that, in the unlikely event that they couldn’t work out a deal, the Commissioner would decide.

That was in October. This is February and, surprise, they can’t reach agreement on fair compensation. Boston wants every player in the Cubs organization who’s got a chance of ever being good (yes, both of them) and the Cubs think two old catchers masks should be sufficient.

Of course, what Selig SHOULD have done at the time was is say, “BS! Come to an agreement now or forget about it.” But he didn’t. So now he’s faced with making a decision that will certainly upset one team owner or the other.

So, in true Bud Selig fashion, he’s dragging the process out as long as possible in the apparent hope that people will forget about it. And he may be right… the other 28 owners would like him to forget about it. The last thing they want is for a precedent to be set giving the Commissioner the authority to settle such things.

There is one more little decision that I’d like to see the Commissioner step up and make, but this post has run on long enough for today, so I’ll save the last point for tomorrow. Those of you who’ve been reading my stuff here for a while can probably already guess the issue I’d like Mr. Selig to address, but I’ll leave you with a little hint:

~You can get anything you want at Alice’s Restaurant~

- JC

 

General    Bud Selig
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Twins Prospects: What a Difference a Week Makes

Feb10th
2012
Written by Jim Crikket

UPDATE (2/13/2012): We have yet another prospect list to include in the discussion… Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus has released his “Top 101″ list and while he apparently thinks more of Miguel Sano (#12) than either Mayo or Law do, he has only one other Twin, Rosario (#87) on his list. Twins that dropped off his list since last year include Hicks (#51 in 2011), Gibson (#55 in 2011) and Revere (#62 in 2011… perhaps Revere no longer meets his criteria for “prospect” status). – JC

It almost goes without saying, but if you need more evidence that judging an organization’s minor leaguers is an inexact science, at best, all you need to do is compare prospect rankings of even the most reputable sources.

A couple of weeks ago, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com released his “Top 100″ prospects list and it wasn’t good news for the Minnesota Twins. Only two players in their organization, consensus top Twins prospect Miguel Sano (#23) and Aaron Hicks (#72) made the list. Since there are 30 MLB teams, logic would tell you that to be considered as having an “average” number of highly ranked prospects an organization should have at least three players among any “Top 100″ list.

Predictably, there were a few articles popping up within both mainstream media and social media that discussed the sad state of the Twins minor league talent levels.

Fast forward to yesterday morning and we had a new “Top 100″ list from ESPN’s Keith Law (Insider subcription required). Surprise! The Twins post FOUR players on Law’s list, with Eddie Rosario (#50) and Oswaldo Arcia (#85) joining Sano (#28) and Hicks (#80). Placing four in Law’s “Top 100″ might indicate the Twins organization is a bit above average. Funny how an organization can improve so much over the course of a couple of winter weeks without playing a single game, isn’t it?

So which is it? Is the Twins organization straggling behind the competition when it comes to developing high end prospects or are they a bit above the norm? I suppose we could await Baseball America’s “Top 100″ list to break the tie, but that’s really not necessary. The answer is “yes.”

Aaron Hicks

What’s that you say… that wasn’t a “yes or no” question? I know that. After all I posed the question. But the answer really is that the Twins organization is both a bit below and a bit above the competition.

Why below? Because three of the four players Law thinks highly of are at least two years (and more likely at least three years) away from being Big Leaguers, and the fourth (Hicks) fell like a rock in Law’s rankings from 10th in 2011 to 80th in 2012. Not exactly cause to be optimistic that he’ll be leading the Twins to the playoffs any time real soon.

In addition, in an era when top-end starting pitching has become obscenely expensive on the open market, making “growing your own” an absolute necessity, the Twins have zero pitchers in any “Top 100″ list released to date this year. Sure, they had a bit of bad luck with Kyle Gibson’s injury a year ago, but you don’t get extra points for bad luck.

On the other hand, the Twins obviously intended for this imbalance to occur. While you never can be 100% sure how any 16-21 year old will mature, mentally or physically, there’s usually a reason top draft picks and international signees get big bucks… they are the most likely to become top prospects and, ideally, star players. And the Twins have been focusing on position players above pitchers in the high rounds of the draft and in their international scouting.

So now four of those players appear to be among the top prospects in baseball, which should indicate that the organization’s plans are working out roughly the way they hoped. How comfortable fans should feel about that conclusion is, I suppose, another topic for reasonable debate.

The Twins had some bad luck and some bad drafts a few years back (as the Strib’s LaVelle E. Neal III has done a good job of reviewing on his blog). So unless you count Gibson, there simply isn’t a “big impact” player in the organization that’s going to be stepping in to a leadership role with the Twins this year or even in 2013… maybe not even by 2014 unless Hicks gets things turned around.

The bottom line is that there is reason for some optimism that help is on the way, but it’s tempered by the fact that such help is likely on the distant horizon, rather than anything imminent. There’s a solid group of young players with the potential to be productive Major League ballplayers making their way up in the organizational ranks and that includes a lot of players over and above the guys you see on any “top prospect” list.

For now, and likely for the next couple of seasons, the Twins will need to continue filling out their Major League roster with mid-level free agents and other teams’ cast-offs. But if Twins fans can be patient, there is the potential for the next wave of stars to be very good.

I know… Twins fans being patient? Not likely.

- JC

P.S. If you want to know more about the Twins prospects mentioned above and about 150 others in the organization, it’s not too late to order your Minnesota Twins 2012 Prospect Handbook. Head on over to SethSpeaks.net for the link and order your copy. I’ve got four copies myself, so what are YOU waiting for?

Minor Leagues, Twins baseball    Aaron Hicks, Eddie Rosario, Miguel Sano, Oswaldo Arcia
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AL Central Preview: Kansas City Royals

Feb7th
2012
Written by Jim Crikket

Here’s the final installment in this series of previews of the Twins’ AL Central Division rivals. Today, we talk about the Landed Gentry down yonder in Kansas City.

How many years now have we been hearing about how great the Kansas City Royals’ prospects are? Seems like forever.  Last season, we finally got to see some of that talent on the field at the Big League level. And what did we see? I guess you have to give the Royals credit for crawling out of the AL Central Division cellar, but that may have been due more to just how bad the Twins were than any improvement by the Royals.

Still, the Royals are getting better and you have to hope baseball fans in Kansas City recognize it and start showing up at the remodeled Kauffman Stadium in greater numbers. As it stands, at least there should be one guaranteed sell-out in KC this season, with the 2012 All-Star Game being hosted there. Kauffman has always been one of my favorite MLB stadiums so I’m glad they’re getting this opportunity to showcase the great job they did of fixing the place up.

And who knows, maybe this is the season a few of their young stars emerge to the point where the Royals get more than just token representation on the AL squad.

Last Year:

Record: 71-91

Standings: 4th place AL Central by 24 games behind Tigers

Playoffs: None. Their last playoff appearance was in 1985 (Ouch)

Players of Note Lost: OF Melky Cabrera

Players of Note Added: P Jonathan Sanchez, P Jonathan Broxton, SS Yuniesky Betancourt, P Jose Mijares

M*A*S*H unit: Unless you count the potential for Jose Mijares to eat one or two of his team mates, the Royals appear to be entering Spring Training in remarkably good shape health-wise. (Actually, if there’s one place where one probably should not poke fun at food-related injuries, it is almost certainly Kansas City… not after the close call their mascot Sluggerrr had with the justice system following a nasty hotdog incident last year.)

Outlook: If I were a Royals fan, I’d have really liked to see the club go out and get Roy Oswalt or Edwin Jackson. That would have been a great way for ownership to tell the fan base, “we’re not just BSing about this any more, we think we can be good!”

I guess they figured bringing in Jonathan Sanchez should be enough to convince fans that they’re serious. The other new Jonathan (Broxton) should prove helpful out of the bullpen, as well. On the other hand, they also added Jose Mijares. While I’m tempted to say Mijares will offset any improvement Broxton might bring, the truth is that Mijares probably could prove to be a major contributor as a LOOGY out of their pen.

At some point, all of these hitters that the “experts” have been raving about as they worked their way up through the Royals organization are going to start scoring more runs, right? Maybe, in a season that’s shaping up to be a pretty mediocre year for most of the other AL Central teams, this will be the year that Billy Butler, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Alex Gordon, and Alcides Escobar score runs in bunches. If so, and if they get some pitching, maybe those runs will translate in to wins.

That’s a lot of “maybe,” but I think it may just happen.

I’m obviously hoping the Twins’ fortunes turn this year and they mount a serious challenge to the Tigers. But if they don’t, I think the Royals may be the AL Central team most likely to do so. I’ll predict KC wins at least half their games this season and with a little luck, a few games more than that. Anything above .500 could be good enough for runner-up status in this Division.

- JC

Royals
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AL Central Preview: Chicago White Sox

Feb6th
2012
Written by Jim Crikket

UPDATE (2/14/2012): We can’t say the White Sox haven’t added anybody any more. They signed Kosuke Fukudome. It’s tempting to make fun of the deal, but it’s really a no-risk deal for the Sox since they got him for little more than the league minimum in 2012 and have an option for 2013 that would cost them just another $500K to buy out. – JC

Sometimes I wonder if the Twins actually have a true “rivalry” with any other MLB team. I think we’re all tired of getting our brains beat in by the Yankees every series, whether in the regular season or post-season, but everyone hates the Yankees and, after all, a true rivalry requires some level of mutual dislike, doesn’t it? I’m not altogether sure that Yankee fans even realize the Twins play in the same league as their team.

The closest thing to a rivalry the Twins have probably has to be with the White Sox (or BitchSox, as Batgirl taught us to refer to them). I admit that they’re the AL Central Division team I’ve come to know and despise the most.

I look at the SouthSiders as pretty much the “anti-Twins” organization. Even the way their front office operates has pretty much been the polar opposite of the Twins’ method of operating. Their approach seems to be to headline-making trades, without regard for fiscal issues, in a nearly annual attempt to “win it all” and if (more like “when”) that doesn’t work, blow things up and do it all over again.

GM Kenny Williams has been making noises about blowing the team up this off-season, but has he really done that? Let’s take a look.

Last Year:

Record: 79-83

Standings: 3rd place AL Central by 16 games behind Tigers

Playoffs: None. Their last playoff appearance was in 2008 (a memory Twins fans would just as soon forget)

Players of Note Lost: P Mark Buehrle, OF Carlos Quentin, P Sergio Santos, P Jason Frasor

Players of Note Added: Nobody whatsoever

M*A*S*H unit: P Jake Peavy has yet to prove healthy enough to make any significant contribution to the White Sox. Other than that, however, the Sox really can’t blame their misfortunes on injuries. Adam Dunn, Alex Rios and Gordon Beckham all stayed quite healthy in 2011… they just sucked at baseball.

Outlook: Between the four players noted above and Edwin Jackson, who the Sox shipped away during the middle of 2011, Williams has cleared about $40 million of payroll. If they open the season with what’s currently on their roster, they’ll be shelling out close to $10 million less in salary than the Twins will. Well over half of the Sox current contractual commitments for 2012 is wrapped up in four players. Ordinarily, that may not be such a big deal, but when three out of those four big ticket ballplayers have produced the way Peavy, Dunn and Rios have, that’s a problem.

While Twins fans fret over whether Justin Morneau will return to health sufficiently to see a reasonable return on the team’s remaining financial commitment ($15 million in 2012 and again in 2013), the Sox faithful are left wondering whether Adam Dunn will produce at a level to earn his $15 million salary this season… or next season… or the season after that.

And if you think it’s tough wondering whether Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano and Nick Blackburn will bounce back from their struggles a year ago, I’d rather take my chances with that trio than hoping that Jake Peavy will finally earn the money the Sox are paying him… an amount, by the way, that will be half a million dollars more than what the Twins will pay Baker, Liriano and Blackburn, combined.

The Sox still have Paul Konerko anchoring the middle of their batting order, but unless Rios and Dunn find their grooves, it’s difficult to imagine where their offense will come from. They also still have Gavin Floyd and John Danks in their rotation and it sounds like they’ll be adding Chris Sale. That means, however, that Sale won’t be available out of the bullpen and without Santos (last year’s closer), former Twin Jesse Crain could finally get his shot at being a closer. Lefty Matt Thornton may be another option.

Of course, the guy Twins fans may miss the most isn’t even a player. Manager Ozzie Guillen has taken his talents to South Beach (along with arguably his best pitcher, Mark Buehrle), so we’ll all miss Ozzie’s colorful post-game press conferences. Robin Ventura, who has zero managing experience, will take over the Sox clubhouse.

In the end, the White Sox have perhaps even more question marks than the Twins do and I don’t think they’re going to like how those questions are answered. I’m picking the Sox to pull up the rear of the AL Central in 2012. They may not lose 99 games the way the Twins did while finishing last in 2011… but then again, they might.

- JC

BitchSox
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AL Central Preview: Cleveland Indians

Feb3rd
2012
Written by Jim Crikket

UPDATE: (2/13/2012) The Indians have signed Jon Garland to a minor league contract. If Cleveland feels Garland has recovered enough from shoulder surgery to return to his innings-eating level shown over the past decade, he could certainly give their rotation a boost. It also would make you have to wonder whether it means Kevin Slowey could find himself on his fourth team in as many months. They certainly can’t be thinking they could push Slowey to the bullpen, right? – JC

Let’s knock off one more preview post before the weekend, shall we? Maybe by next week, I’ll have generated the energy and interest level to look in to the remaining Division rivals. Yesterday, we looked at the prohibitive favorites to repeat as AL Central champions, the Detroit Tigers. For today, we’ll take a little peak at the Cleveland Indians.

If you had said before the 2011 season that the Indians would finish 15 games out of first place in the AL Central Division, not many people would have argued the point. But if you’d have predicted that would be good enough for second place in the Division, you’d have drawn more than a few chuckles.

Yes, the AL Central, outside of the Tigers, really was that bad.

Last Year:

Record: 80-82

Standings: 2nd place AL Central by 15 games behind Tigers

Playoffs: Not even close. Their last playoff appearance was in 2007

Players of Note Lost: OF Austin Kearns, DH Jim Thome, OF Kosuke Fukudome

Players of Note Added: P Derek Lowe, P Kevin Slowey, 1B Casey Kotchman, P Dan Wheeler, P Jon Garland (see UPDATE at top)

M*A*S*H unit: OF Grady Sizemore, OF Shin-Soo Chu and DH Travis Haefner all missed over two months’ worth of games in 2011. And those are just the “headliners” that pretty much lived on the Disabled List in 2011. If the Indians are going to even sniff .500 again in 2012, much less improve on their record, they’re going to need to do a better job of keeping their best players healthy. (Sounds a bit familiar, doesn’t it Twins fans?)

Outlook: The Indians are likely to field a team with a payroll just a bit over half of what the Twins will be shelling out in 2012. Not coincidentally, they drew just over half the number of fans that the Twins did last season. Odd how that works out, isn’t it?

Justin Masterson was perhaps the sole bright spot for the Tribe in 2011. His W-L record was a pedestrian 12-10, but his 3.21 ERA opened some eyes. They’re really counting on Ubaldo Jimenez to live up to the expectations they had for him when they sent several prospects to the Rockies to get him at mid-season last year. It just seems that nobody really knows whether Jimenez is the top of the rotation guy he has looked like when he’s been on top of his game or the struggling pitcher he’s looked like most recently. (Again, this may sound pretty familiar to Twins fans.)

Of course, Twins fans will be paying some attention to another recent addition to the Tribe’s pitching staff. Former Twin Kevin Slowey has found his way to Cleveland, by way of Colorado.

Cleveland fans are hoping that Haefner, Choo, Sizemore, Asdrubal Cabrera and Carlos Santana can generate some offense, but obviously the front office felt the need to shore up the line up a little bit when they signed Casey Kotchman.

It’s hard for me to envision the Indians seriously contending for anything in 2012. In fact, their second place finish last year said more about just how bad the Twins and White Sox were, rather than anything terribly positive about the Tribe. I do give them credit for doing a much better job of fighting through their injury issues than the Twins did, however.

If they can stay healthy, Cleveland could contend with the other also-rans of the Division for runner-up status, but I don’t really expect that to happen. I think the Tribe will fight with the White Sox to stay out of the AL Central cellar this season.

I will say this much… as I look over the prospects for the rest of the AL Central teams that don’t play in Michigan, I’m starting to feel much better about the Twins’ chances.

Next up: Chicago White Sox

-  JC

Tribe
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Saints Sneak Peek

Jan24th
2012
Written by CapitalBabs

So this year will be the Minnesota Saints 20th season.. they’ll be announcing a new logo for the season later today but here’s your sneak peek:

 

The Saints have a lot going on this offseason. They are part of St. Paul’s request to the state legislature for building funds for a new stadium in lowertown…  To be honest, I really don’t know how I feel about that because so much of the identity they have in my mind is wrapped up in their midway location and there are a lot of pros & cons for building a new park for a minor league team – not the least among them is timing. However, if YOU are interested in learning more from the team, they will be hosting a live chat on the facebook St. Paul Saints page from 4-5 pm.

Last but certainly not least is the best Hot Stove League Banquet I’ve ever attended – and it’s going on this Friday. It’s used as a fundraiser for the St. Paul little league although I’m sure that there will be a lot of Saints & Twins baseball discussion. I encourage you to check it out.

 

 

Other baseball
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