Category Archives: Post-Season

According to that fancy computer over at Baseball Prospectus that spits out the odds concerning each team’s playoff chances every morning, the Twins now have a 99.99645% chance of winning the AL Central. That’s pretty good, right? So why do I feel like I’m not allowed to get excited yet?

I realize there is a certain group of Twins fans who consistently feel the need to look for the negative side to everything, so there’s something here for them, too. According to the BP computer, the Twins have no chance… zero, zip, nada… of winning getting the AL Wild Card spot. Ah well, I can live with that.

The next two weeks will be filled with discussions about the probable pitching rotation, the make up of the bullpen and the bench options for position players. We’ll be looking for every morsel of information we can get about Jason Kubel’s wrist, Denard Span’s shoulder, Joe Mauer’s knee and, of course, Justin Morneau’s noggin. In all, there’s plenty of stuff out there for us to fret over.

But considering that Twinsdom has spent the last two weeks of most seasons lately fretting over whether there would even BE a postseason that any of us cared about, having that minor little detail wrapped up this early with 99.99645% certainty is kinda cool for a change.

I am just a little bit amused by how quickly some “fans” have pretty much already dismissed the Twins chances of winning anything once the postseason arrives, however. Do they REALLY believe everything John Kruk says? Yes, I realize Kruk isn’t the only media “talking head” that’s ready to make this week’s Rays/Yankees series a preview of the ALCS, but the fact that his history of being right about anything is about as good as the White Sox’ remaining playoff chances (less than 6 out of 100,000, if you’re counting) should make people wonder whether they really want to agree with him.

I already posted my views on what the Twins need to focus on down the stretch so I won’t repeat all of that here. I’ll say it appears Gardy is in agreement with my suggestion to use a 6-man rotation, with Scott Baker healthy. He has adjusted the order of his rotation to set things up for Francisco Liriano to start Game 1 of the playoffs, followed by Carl Pavano and Brian Duensing in Games 2 and 3. I still think Pavano is the better idea for Game 1, but I can see that separating your two lefties has some benefits and Liriano, if he’s “on”, would provide the best chance of matching up with either the Yankees’ or Rays’ top pitcher. Someone please just slip the man a valium before the game.

If you are one of those people who really think this year’s Twins are pre-destined to roadkill status in the playoffs, I ask you to simply compare the Twins current roster to some of the names who not only have been on the Twins rosters for their last two playoff series, but started playoff games for the Twins!

In the six playoff game losses (3 to the A’s in 2006 and 3 to the Yankees last year), here are the names of Gardy’s DHs: Phil Nevin, Jason Tyner (2 games), Brendan Harris, Jose Morales (2 games). Imean… can we all at least agree that, all other things being equal, a team with Jim Thome DHing has a better shot to advance in the playoffs than one with these guys:

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But let’s not stop at the DH position.

In 2006, Luis Castillo led off for the Twins and Nick Punto hit 2nd. The 7-8-9 hitters were Rondell White, Nevin/Tyner, and Jason Bartlett. Last year, Span and Cabrera hit 1 and 2, but the 7-8-9 spots were taken with various combinations of Harris, Morales, Matt Tolbert and Punto. Brian Buscher replaced Tolbert on the roster (though he did not play) after the 2nd game due to an injury to Tolbert.

As for pitching, Bobby Keppel had a spot on the postseason roster last year. In 2006, Gardy followed up Johan’s Game 1 start with Boof Bonser in Game 2 and a version of Brad Radke in Game 3 who had a shoulder held together by duct tape.

Yes, as unpleasant as it may, there are worse things than having to tell good players that they won’t be on the ALDS active roster. But let’s take a quick look at the decisions Gardy is going to have to make by the end of the regular season.

In the absence of injury, I think 22 of the 25 ALDS roster spots are pretty much locked up.

Starting pitchers: Liriano, Pavano, Duensing

Bullpen: Capps, Rauch, Fuentes, Crain, Guerrier, Mijares

Catchers: Mauer, Butera

Infielders: Cuddyer, Hudson, Hardy, Valencia, Casilla, Punto

Outfielders: Young, Span, Kubel, Repko

DH: Thome

Those final three spots will be filled based on pitching performances the next two weeks and the health of Justin Morneau.

The fourth starting pitcher spot is Nick Blackburn’s to lose. If he continues pitching well, it belongs to him.

That leaves Kevin Slowey and Scott Baker auditioning for the “long relief” spot in the bullpen (or to replace Blackburn in the rotation if he falters before the playoffs). One of these three pitchers will not be on the ALDS roster… but could still be added to replace an injured pitcher or if/when the Twins move on to the ALCS.

That also leaves just one more position player to be added from among the following choices: Justin Morneau, Matt Tolbert and Jose Morales.

I suspect Matt Tolbert is the odd man out. With Casilla and Punto available for pinch running and backup duty in the infield, Tolbert is redundent. If Justin can play, he’ll be on the roster. If he can’t, I suspect Jose Morales will be added, not only because he gives Gardy more flexibility and a safety net at the catching position, but because he also fills that ’emergency’ role at 1B behind Cuddyer, which would be necessary if Morneau is not available.

In the end, if everyone can get healthy, it’s really hard not to like the Twins chances to perform much better in the playoffs this season than they have in their most recent appearances, unless, of course, you’re a member of the national media or… or so it seems… the local media  as well.

I won’t pretend to speak for everyone else, but yes… I’m EXCITED! – JC

Every team that shows up for Spring Training has essentially the same set of three goals:

1. Win our division (or at least get that wild card spot to get to the playoffs);
2. Advance to the World Series
3. WIN the World Series.

At the risk of offending the baseball gods, after this week’s sweep of the Sox, it’s getting pretty safe to say the Twins have accomplished that first goal. They’ve overcome the adversity of losing key players for all or most of the season. They’ve tinkered with their starting rotation and bullpen roles. They’ve had players who were not envisioned having any role this season step up and contribute when called upon to do so.  They’ve made a couple of key late-season roster additions.

They say the regular season is a marathon, not a sprint, and while the Twins have not held the lead throughout the entire race, they have built a lead at the end that is insurmountable as long as they don’t come down with whatever the baseball equivalent of rigor mortis is (Tiger mortis?) over the next two weeks.

So it’s time to cross number one on that set of goals off the list and ask, “What’s next?”

The last couple of times the Twins have accomplished goal number 1, they’ve had to sprint so hard at the end of the race that, even upon being successful, they could do little but collapse at the finish line and let their rested ALDS opponents walk over their backs and on to the ALCS. There’s no reason that should happen again in 2010.

Tackling the second goal, advancing to the World Series, is akin to lining up for a 400 meter race after finishing a marathon. Your chances of success depend a great deal on how much rest you’ve been able to get between races and how well you recognize that winning two series, a best-of-5 and a best-of-7, calls for a different strategy than coming out on top of a “best-of-162” season.

So here’s Jim Crikket’s “How the Twins Get to the World Series in 4 Easy Steps”.

Step 1: Conserve energy at the end of that marathon.

Yes, it would be wonderful to finish with the best record in the American League… but not if it means your key players enter the post-season tired and nursing nagging injuries. The Twins not only have a 9 game lead in the standings over Chicago, but a pretty nice 5 1/2 game lead over the Rangers. As long as that lead stays safe, the Twins are going to have home field advantage and host the Wild Card team in the ALDS.

It sounds like Scott Baker is healthy and that means the Twins have six starting pitchers available. Use them. Give everyone an extra day’s rest using a six man rotation the last couple of weeks.

Don’t overwork the bullpen. There is little reason for any of the short relievers that the Twins will be relying on in the post-season (Capps, Rauch, Fuentes, Guerrier, Crain, Mijares) to pitch two days in a row or more than one inning in any game. Keep them sharp. Use them intelligently. But make sure they are strong for the ALDS.

Get and keep everyone healthy. Is Jason Kubel’s wrist sore? Let him rest. Is Jim Thome’s back stiff? Sit him down. Hudson, Hardy and Valencia have all nursed some injuries the past few weeks. Make sure those are as healed as possible.

Oh, and for Gods sake, find SOMEONE who can give Michael Cuddyer a couple of days off at first base, will ya?

Step 2: Set your rotation.

This really isn’t rocket science, so don’t over-think things. The ALDS is set up as two games, day off, two games, day off, one game. ‘Stache and Frankie are going to pitch the first two games and Brian Duensing is going in game 3. If you’re down 1 game to 2 after that, Pavano’s going on 3 days rest in game 4. If you’re up 2-1, you go with whoever your best #4 starter has been during the final couple of weeks. Who knows, you may even sweep the other guys in 3 games and not have to worry about game 4.

There’s been some discussion about whether Pavano or Liriano should be your Game 1 starter. After Pavano’s less-than-impressive outing Thursday night, the debate could pick up steam. But please… there’s no question it’s Pavano. As much as the Twins have been in the playoffs this decade, it’s easy to forget that Liriano has never started a postseason game. He was quoted this week saying that he’s already nervous about making his first playoff start. In case you haven’t noticed, Frankie + nervous = not good. You do not want him starting Game 1, never mind a possible Game 4 on short rest (and on the road) to stay alive. Win Game 1 behind Pavano and maybe Liriano will relax a little bit before taking the mound for Game 2 (OK, probably not).

Step 3. Make sure everyone knows what their role is… and that it’s not necessarily the role they’ve played during the first 162 games.

Perhaps I should preface this with, “make sure GARDY knows what everyone’s role is and that HE knows those roles aren’t necessarily the same as they’ve been the first 162 games.”

This is where you tell Matt Tolbert, Nick Punto, Alexi Casilla, Jason Repko and yes, Drew Butera, “Thank you… you have all done a terrific job when called upon this season and we would not be in the position we are in without you. You will all get a ring and a playoff check when this is over. But outside of a little pinch running, late game defensive assistance, or (God forbid) stepping up for an injured team mate, your primary role the rest of the way is ‘cheerleader’.”

On the one hand, when the most widely discussed topic among a playoff-bound team’s fan base revolves around its backup catcher, that team must be looking pretty good. On the other hand, there’s a reason that the role of Drew Butera in the playoffs is being widely discussed.

There has been widespread concern that Ron Gardenhire would continue using Butera as Pavano’s personal catcher in the playoffs. Thursday’s pairing of Pavano and Mauer hopefully put this question to bed. If Pavano does have to pitch 2 of those ALDS games, it would be insane to have Drew Butera in the lineup instead of Jim Thome for 40-50% of your playoff games.

The problem is, sometimes even the best Major League managers forget they are no longer running the marathon and they lose a little bit of their sanity. Even Tom Kelly did it with Junior Ortiz in the 1991 World Series, when Ortiz was Scott Erickson’s “personal catcher”. That just proves TK wasn’t always sane, either. But I’d like to think that even Kelly would have made a different choice if, instead of Ortiz taking Brian Harper’s spot in the batting order, it would have meant Kent Hrbek had to sit.

Step 4: Relax.

All season long, this team has been loose on the field and, from all reports, loose in the clubhouse. They seem to have really enjoyed the season and have never worried too much about the individual games. There has been a confidence that every day somebody is going to step up and provide the critical hit, the shutdown pitching performance or the defensive gem that leads to a win. Don’t let anything change that approach.

When you’ve accomplished the second goal, we’ll take a look at what it takes to tackle that 3rd and final one. But for now, you never know when your next trip to the playoffs will be, so relax, have fun and enjoy this one.

And that goes for the fans, too. – JC