If you had said before the 2011 season that the Indians would finish 15 games out of first place in the AL Central Division, not many people would have argued the point. But if you’d have predicted that would be good enough for second place in the Division, you’d have drawn more than a few chuckles.

Yes, the AL Central, outside of the Tigers, really was that bad.

Last Year:

Record: 80-82

Standings: 2nd place AL Central by 15 games behind Tigers

Playoffs: Not even close. Their last playoff appearance was in 2007

Players of Note Lost: OF Austin Kearns, DH Jim Thome, OF Kosuke Fukudome

Players of Note Added: P Derek Lowe, P Kevin Slowey, 1B Casey Kotchman, P Dan Wheeler

M*A*S*H unit: OF Grady Sizemore, OF Shin-Soo Chu and DH Travis Haefner all missed over two months’ worth of games in 2011. And those are just the “headliners” that pretty much lived on the Disabled List in 2011. If the Indians are going to even sniff .500 again in 2012, much less improve on their record, they’re going to need to do a better job of keeping their best players healthy. (Sounds a bit familiar, doesn’t it Twins fans?)

Outlook: The Indians are likely to field a team with a payroll just a bit over half of what the Twins will be shelling out in 2012. Not coincidentally, they drew just over half the number of fans that the Twins did last season. Odd how that works out, isn’t it?

Justin Masterson was perhaps the sole bright spot for the Tribe in 2011. His W-L record was a pedestrian 12-10, but his 3.21 ERA opened some eyes. They’re really counting on Ubaldo Jimenez to live up to the expectations they had for him when they sent several prospects to the Rockies to get him at mid-season last year. It just seems that nobody really knows whether Jimenez is the top of the rotation guy he has looked like when he’s been on top of his game or the struggling pitcher he’s looked like most recently. (Again, this may sound pretty familiar to Twins fans.)

Of course, Twins fans will be paying some attention to another recent addition to the Tribe’s pitching staff. Former Twin Kevin Slowey has found his way to Cleveland, by way of Colorado.

Cleveland fans are hoping that Haefner, Choo, Sizemore, Asdrubal Cabrera and Carlos Santana can generate some offense, but obviously the front office felt the need to shore up the line up a little bit when they signed Casey Kotchman.

It’s hard for me to envision the Indians seriously contending for anything in 2012. In fact, their second place finish last year said more about just how bad the Twins and White Sox were, rather than anything terribly positive about the Tribe. I do give them credit for doing a much better job of fighting through their injury issues than the Twins did, however.

If they can stay healthy, Cleveland could contend with the other also-rans of the Division for runner-up status, but I don’t really expect that to happen. I think the Tribe will fight with the White Sox to stay out of the AL Central cellar this season.

I will say this much… as I look over the prospects for the rest of the AL Central teams that don’t play in Michigan, I’m starting to feel much better about the Twins’ chances.

Next up: Chicago White Sox

-  JC

That being the case, what else is there to say, really? The fortunes of the 2012 will simply be determined by the health and productivity of Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Denard Span, Scott Baker, et al., right?

Well, sort of… but then again, not entirely.

While it is pretty much a given that the Twins need their stars to have healthy, productive seasons to have any chance at being competitive, that’s only one set of variables. Their AL Central Division rivals have just about as many question marks as the Twins do. How the seasons shake out for Detroit, Cleveland, Chicago and Kansas City will play just as much of a role in determining the Twins’ fate as anything the Twins do on the field, themselves.

So, while we’ve been focusing all of our attention on what Terry Ryan has done (and hasn’t done) to reshape the Twins in to something with the potential to be more competitive in 2012, let’s turn our eyes toward what the competition has been doing, starting with the Detroit Tigers.

Why start with Detroit? Well, it appears that if there’s one thing virtually everyone with an opinion agrees on, it’s that the Tigers are the prohibitive favorite to repeat as winners of the AL Central title this season. It’s pretty easy to see why that’s the case. On paper, they are simply much better than anyone else in the Division.

Last Year:

Record: 95-67

Standings: 1^st place AL Central by 15 games over Indians

Playoffs: Beat Yankees 3-2 in ALDS, Lost to Rangers 4-2 in ALCS

Players of Note Lost: P Joel Zumaya (FA), INF Wilson Betemit (FA),

Players of Note Added: 1B Prince Fielder, P Octavio Dotel, C Gerald Laird

M*A*S*H unit: 1B/DH/C Victor Martinez (ACL – potentially season ending), P Al Alburquerque (elbow fracture – out through AS break)

Outlook: If you believe what you read, there’s really no point in playing out the season. We should just give the Division Championship to the Tigers and let them rest up for six months to prepare for the playoffs.

There is no doubt that the addition of Prince Fielder is huge. Say what you will about his body-type and how unlikely it may be that he’ll be worth $24 million a year by the time his nine-year contract winds up, but for 2012, his presence in the middle of the Tiger batting order is a difference maker. At the same time, Victor Martinez won’t be in that batting order and that absence shouldn’t be minimized, either.

If Jim Leyland goes forward with stated plans to move Miguel Cabrera back over to 3B, he’ll be giving Division rivals a gift. The Tigers already weren’t a particularly good defensive team and with Cabrera and Fielder at the infield corners, they’d be worse.

The confounding thing is that there really isn’t a good reason to force that change this season. When Martinez returns, sure… then he’ll have three 1B/DH types and he’ll need to get creative. But this season, why not just let Fielder and Cabrera split time between 1B and DH? It’s so obvious that you have to figure Leyland will figure it out before Opening Day. So as much as I would love to watch teams lay down bunt after bunt on the Tigers, I’m not really expecting to see Cabrera at 3B once the games start counting.

The one benefit for the rest of the Division that comes from the Tigers signing Fielder is that it appears they won’t be using that money to strengthen their rotation.

Justin Verlander is a stud, no doubt about it. But I just find it hard to imagine that even he can put up another year comparable to the last couple. Three seasons in a row of that kind of productivity is almost unheard of. A lot of people like the young arms the Tigers use to fill out the rest of the rotation and Doug Fister was a huge addition last season, but I’ve been less impressed with Rick Porcello and Max Scherzer. Maybe this rotation will turn out to be as great as any in the league, but I’ll believe it when I see it… especially if Leyland does stick to the plan of playing Cabrera at 3B.

In the bullpen, others are more impressed with Octavio Dotel than I am, so I can’t say I feel they’ve improved their bullpen significantly. He may adequately replace Alburquerque, I guess.

The bottom line is that this team is built to win right now. They’re rolling the dice while they’ve got stars like Cabrera, Verlander and Avila in their primes, along with a future Hall of Fame manager at the controls. If their pitching can be good enough to overcome the defense playing behind them, the addition of Fielder should assure that they score enough runs to win the AL Central going away… again… and once again be a serious threat in the playoffs. That would mean that the Twins and the others in the Division are all playing for second place.

We’ll be continuing to take similar glances at the rest of the AL Central Division, but don’t expect a new team preview every day. You’ll get them as I do them, which is to say, when I’m damn good and ready to do the next one!

Next up: Cleveland Indians

-          JC

But every once in a while, something comes up that reminds us just how out of touch some of these guys really are.

Usually, it involves their paychecks… like when an NBA near-star complains about not being able to feed his family on the $3-4 million his current contract calls for or when someone with 2-3 years remaining in his contract “holds out” of training camp or spring training because he wants a new contract more befitting his recent contributions. (Funny how none of these guys follows up a crappy year by insisting on taking a pay cut, though, isn’t it?)

A couple of recent reminders of just how out of touch players are with their fans, however, have had little at all to do with their inflated paychecks. No, the issue was something a bit more subtle… their jersey numbers. Both instances involved players from Minnesota’s major sports.

Did you shell out $100 for a #19 Valencia jersey? Tough sh*t.

As many of you may be aware, Danny Valencia has decided to change his jersey number this season. Instead of the #19 he’s worn during his first couple of seasons as the Twins third baseman, Valencia has elected to switch to #22 for the 2012 season.

Valencia was one of the players participating in the “Tweet and Greet” during Twinsfest on Saturday afternoon and he was asked by one of the fans what he suggests fans who bought his #19 jersey should do with them. His response was something along the lines of considering it a “throwback jersey”. When the fan responded with, “you mean throw away jersey?”, he didn’t seem amused.

Not to pick exclusively on Valencia, because he’s certainly not the first Twins player to change numbers. Justin Morneau switched from #27 to his current #33 a few years back, as well. But his perturbed demeanor at having a fan dare to even question him on the subject just demonstrates how out of touch he is with the fans.

Valencia’s going to be among the lowest paid players in Major League Baseball this season at a mere $480,000, but you would think that he’s still young enough to remember when shelling out over $100 for a player’s jersey (and a replica jersey, at that) was a big deal. His cavalier attitude on the subject indicated that he clearly doesn’t “get it.”

Frankly, if I were running the Twins and Valencia told me he wanted to change jersey numbers, I’d have told him he should learn how to field his position and make a decent throw to first base (not to mention getting on base more than 29% of the time) or he can ask for whatever number he wants… from his next team.

Peterson will keep #28

But Valencia’s nowhere near the biggest name on the list of Minnesota sports heroes that “don’t get it.” That honor (for this week anyway) goes to the Vikings’ Adrian Peterson.

It seems “AP” decided he’d like to turn in his #28 for #23 next season. Exactly why seems to remain a bit of a mystery, but it hardly matters because once Peterson found out he’d have to write a check for about $1 million to cover the cost of all of the #28 jerseys the NFL and their licensed retailers have in stock, he decided against the change.

But he wasn’t happy about it.

Get a load of these quotes, (courtesy of 1500ESPN’s Tom Pelissero):

“Ok so I see maybe ten thousand dollars of my total jersey sales! That’s it!!!” Peterson wrote, referring to a player’s cut of the licensing fee.

“(And) I know I’ve mostly likely been in the top ten (w)hen it comes to top sales ! Why in the hell do I have to pay a Million dollars to change my number! I don’t even get paid a million (d)ollars by my sponsors a year! Wow!!! (And) I’m talking about my (N)ike deal!”

I guess that kind of reaction shouldn’t surprise us. After all, this is the same guy who complained a year ago that being an NFL player constituted “modern day slavery.”

Poor Adrian. Maybe we could arrange a telethon or something.

Yo Adrian! It’s not all about YOU, jerk!

It’s about the store owners who still have a crapload of your junk with #28 plastered all over it that they couldn’t sell because you and your team stunk the place up this season.

And while you may “only” have seen about $10K of the money spent on your crap, your fans have spent MILLIONS of dollars for the privilege of wearing your name… and number… on their backs.

Frankly, I think the NFL is letting you off easy by just making you pay for the unsold stock of #28 jerseys. If changing your number is so important to you, you should have to pay to REPLACE all of the jerseys your fans have purchased and which would become instantly outdated for no reason other than your own self-centeredness.

I’d like to see fans send a little message to Adrian Peterson, Danny Valencia, and any other big time player who changes their jersey number. It’s simple really. Don’t buy their stuff. Any of it.

Let Valencia look around Target Field for kids wearing his #22 and see… nobody.

If AP is so proud of being in the “Top 10″ of jersey sales, let him drop through the floor in those rankings and see how big his next Nike deal is.

Maybe at some point these guys will start to understand that every dollar they make originates with us… the fans… and maybe at some point they’ll realize the effects that their stupid whims have on their fans.

Nah…. probably not.

- JC

We here at Knuckleballs have a special spot in our hearts for our namesake (might be why we picked the name in the first place). And recently, the folk over at Baseball Prospectus have put up a physical analysis of the trajectory of a knuckleball pitch.. I think that this counts as a double link since they were linking Mr. Nathan as a guest author. But regardless of how many layers of recommendation you have to go through, it’s really worth giving it a read.

Baseball ProGUESTus

The Knuckleball Mystique: Using PITCHf/x to Distinguish Perception from Reality

It was an eventful weekend in the Twin Cities and more than anything else, I feel like I need a nap. Then again, I also know that if I don’t post something about my trip to Twinsfest now, there’s a good chance it won’t get done at all so I’ll post and THEN get my beauty sleep.

I arrived at my hotel Friday in plenty of time to get cleaned up and head to Oakdale for the 4th Annual Last Hot Stove Banquet. It was the first opportunity I’ve had to attend this event and I had a great time. It’s a relaxing, informal, event but the organizers do a good job of providing an interesting and entertaining program. Former Twins pitcher Scott Erickson was one of the speakers and I thought he did a nice job both with his remarks and with fielding questions from the crowd.

My favorite part of the program, however, was when Twins President Dave St. Peter and St. Paul Saints co-owner Mike Veeck were joined on a Q&A panel by former Red Sox pitcher Dana Keicker and the StarTribune’s Howard Sinker. All four did a great job of fielding questions with relative candor, as well as a healthy dose of humor. The banquet definitely got the weekend off on a good foot.

Saturday also started out well, with my fellow Knuckleballers KL and CapitalBabs joining me for breakfast before I headed for the Metrodome. I particularly appreciated Babs’ hubby joining us, to keep the gender balance even.

I didn’t arrive at the Dome until close to 11:00 am, but since I really wasn’t concerned about jumping through the hoops necessary to get one of the “premium” autographs, there was no need to get there early. I found Seth Stohs at the 1500ESPN Radio set and after a brief visit, I was headed to the main floor.

This trip, my autograph collecting was primarily focused on the minor leaguers. It was great having a copy of Seth’s Prospect Handbook along, allowing me to have a number of those young players sign the page on which their information is printed.

I did get one other autograph. Jim “Mudcat” Grant was signing copies of his book, The Black Aces, and I happily purchased a copy of the book and got him to add a signed inscription. Grant was joined at the booth by four “Black Aces”, J.R. Richard, Dave Steward, Doc Gooden and Ferguson Jenkins. Seeing those five pitchers together certainly brought back a lot of great memories for me and was perhaps the highlight of my day at Twinsfest.

I didn’t take a lot of pictures this trip, but I did put a few in to a slideshow to share here:

The night was capped off at the Old Chicago restaurant in Roseville where what seemed like every Twins blogger and most of the people who read their blogs gathered for a bit of socialization. It was great to see everyone, even if I was so intimidated by the talent assembled there that I pretty much hid in the corner most of the night. My thanks to everyone who found me and stopped by to say “hi”.  It really was a pleasure meeting and spending some time talking to everyone.

All in all, it was a terrific weekend to kind of “kick off” the 2012 Twins season. Pitchers and catchers report in just under three weeks, so it really is getting close to baseball season, despite what all the snow along the highway on my drive home would indicate. I can’t wait.

- JC

No Twins player will wear this number again

The Twins wrapped up the annual Diamond Awards banquet Thursday night with a very special award… announcing in front of the 500 or so attendees, a FSN television audience, those of us watching online, and one very surprised former manager that the organization would be honoring Tom Kelly by retiring his #10 in a ceremony this September 8.

Kelly had just finished introducing retired radio broadcaster John Gordon, recipient of the Herb Carneal Lifetime Achievement Award, and was getting ready to return to his seat. Emcee Dick Bremer kept Kelly on the podium, however, and brought club president Dave St. Peter up to the microphone. St. Peter then proceeded to bestow the team’s greatest honor on Kelly, announcing that no Twin will ever again wear his number 10.

Standing behind St. Peter, TK was clearly overcome with emotion as the words sank in. Kelly was so emotionally overwhelmed that he simply stepped down from the podium and returned to his seat without a word, but his face and body language spoke volumes.

Kelly managed the only two World Series championship teams in Twins history, in 1987 and 1991, and even after his retirement from the field has remained a constant fixture in the organization. Visitors to the Twins spring training complex in Ft. Myers may not see much of Kelly if they only show up to watch the Major Leaguers play their afternoon games, but anyone who gets there early enough to patrol the practice fields in the mornings will have no trouble spotting him.

Tom Kelly remains a fixture on the practice fields

You may see him running the Big Leaguers through infield drills or, his particular specialty, working with the club’s first basemen. But you’re just as likely to find him working with the youngest of the club’s minor leaguers… doing what he does best, instilling the fundamentals of baseball in the young minds and bodies of future Minnesota Twins.

Tom Kelly made his name as the skipper of the championship teams he managed for the Twins, but he’s continued to leave his mark on the Twins organization long after he left the Big League dugout.

In my mind, that’s what makes this honor not only appropriate, but long overdue. Congratulations, Tom Kelly!

- JC

January 25, 2012 – TwinsFest weekend is upon us and we’re extremely excited to see you back at the H.H.H. Metrodome. We’re looking forward to a fun-filled weekend with all of our favorite players, coaches and especially you, the fans. As you prepare for TwinsFest, please take note of the following new items: NEW Random Draw Autograph Sessions In response to fan requests to provide an equal opportunity for fans to secure an autograph at the highest demand stations, Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau’s TwinsFest autograph lines will operate under a random draw system. Running to an autograph line, holding spots and standing for long periods of time will no longer be necessary. All fans must participate in this process for the chance to secure an autograph at these designated sessions; no exceptions. If you’re seeking an autograph from Joe Mauer or Justin Morneau, please familiarize yourself with the autograph station rules byclicking here. Jack Morris Limited Edition Baseball Booth Jack Morris has signed 1,000 baseballs with his name and the notation, “1991 WS Game 7″ on the sweetspot. On the side of the ball, Jack has handwritten a special inscription. More info »  Special Social Media Opportunities Stay tuned to the Twins Twitter account ( @Twins) for unique opportunities throughout the weekend. For tickets or more information, please visit twinsbaseball.com/twinsfest. We’ll see you this weekend!

I hear we have several attendees this year who don’t usually come up – including JC! Maybe you will see him if you stop by! Things to remember, even though they are working to solve the line issues, you still need to bring some cash along once you get there if you want to participate in a lot of the fun stuff. Hope you have a GREAT weekend!

The Hee Haw Gang (Photo: AP)

Gloom, despair, and agony on me
Deep, dark depression, excessive misery
If it weren’t for bad luck, I’d have no luck at all
Gloom, despair, and agony on me

Most of you are too young to remember this little ditty from Roy Clark and Buck Owens from the old “Hee Haw” TV show, but it sure describes much of the reaction around Twinsville to the news that the Tigers had signed Prince Fielder on Tuesday.

I guess it’s understandable, to a degree. It was just a week ago that news of Victor Martinez’s ACL injury gave us all a glimmer of hope that the team that pretty much lapped the rest of the AL Central Division in 2011 might fall back to the pack a bit. Now, just like that, they push themselves out further in to the frontrunner role. If the Twins were 32 games worse than Detroit last year, without Fielder, just how much deeper is that hole likely to be this season?

I’m just not sure it’s worth quite the level of gloom, despair and agony I’ve been reading and hearing. What I am sure of is that this signing doesn’t warrant additional criticism of the Twins more conservative approach to building their 2012 roster. In fact, if anything, it might just be evidence that the Twins’ philosophy will turn out to be the right one, as much as many of us (myself, chief among that group) don’t want to admit it.

My initial reaction to the news of Fielder’s signing with Detroit was something along the lines of, “they must be out of their minds over there!” However, I held off on posting that reaction because, frankly, my initial reactions to things frequently turn out to be wrong and I thought if I waited a bit, maybe I would come to see what the Tigers saw and understand how smart this was. That hasn’t happened. In fact, from what I’ve read of most national baseball writers’ reactions, it appears my initial reaction is pretty much in sync with the “experts.” Of course, that doesn’t necessarily make us right.

But just for kicks and giggles (and perhaps to lessen the degree of gloom, despair and agony around here), let’s try to list exactly what this means for the Tigers and for the Twins in the short term and long term.

• Immediately, it means the Tigers have replaced Victor Martinez in their batting order with a potentially powerful bat. How many more wins that equates to over and above what they would have had with Martinez is at least questionable. They were clearly the best offensive team in the Division already.
• They have to find places for everyone to play, since the AL does not allow several DHs at a time. This means Detroit could field a defensive lineup in which Delmon Young is perhaps only the fifth worst defensive player on the field. If he’s still in left field when Victor Martinez returns, he may be among the Tigers BEST defenders. Think about that for a moment.
• When Justin Verlander is pitching, defense doesn’t really matter. But the Tigers are likely going to have to win a lot of 9-7 games when the other 4/5 of the rotation takes the mound.
• 82-year-old Tigers owner Mike Illitch is clearly willing to mortgage his team’s future… a future he may or may not be around to enjoy anyway… to buy a championship now. That probably means he’s going to be willing to spend even more money in July, if that’s what it takes to win the Division.
• So, short term, signing Fielder makes the Tigers pretty much the same favorite to win the Division that they were without him and, long term, it could mean the team is stuck with a rapidly aging former star with detiorating skills that they’re paying $23 million a year to, whether he plays or not.

For the Twins, it probably means:

• They were right not to spend wildly to try to close a 32 game gap with the a team owned by a desperate old man willing to spend like a drunken sailor on shore leave.
• Before the Tigers signed Fielder, it was going to take all the stars aligning right for the Twins to compete… meaning everyone healthy and productive and a much improved defense. If that happens, there’s still a similar chance that the Twins will be within range of the Tigers, even with Fielder in their lineup. I just don’t see the Tigers winning many more games… they’ll just win by an extra run or two.
• The Twins will have flexibility in July. If they’re in the race, they have money to spend on exactly the positions they need at the time. If they’re out of the race, they can sell off parts that they won’t be counting on in 2013 and beyond anyway.
• Long term, the Twins have to like this deal. Any signing that virtually assures that your competition will eventually be flushing $20+ million a year down a rabbit hole is a good signing. That’s money that could have been spent for younger talent that you’d have to be facing for years to come.

Seriously, those of you who think the Twins are nuts to commit $23 million a year to Joe Mauer, leaving a measly $80 million or so to fill out the rest of the roster, just imagine if the Twins made that deal on top of paying two other players north of $20 million a year. The Tigers have done just that. They’ve got over $60 million in salary going to three players for at least the next three seasons.

Maybe Detroit’s broadcast media rights will be skyrocketing like the Rangers, Angels, and seamingly everyone else’s (except the Twins, naturally) looks to be or maybe their owner really just doesn’t give a damn about money at this point in his life.

All I know for sure is that as much as I may disagree with the Twins front office on various philosophical issues (and I continue to do so), I’m absolutely certain at this point that they are not collectively the dumbest front office in baseball. We have a new leader in the clubhouse in that contest.

- JC

The Saints have a lot going on this offseason. They are part of St. Paul’s request to the state legislature for building funds for a new stadium in lowertown…  To be honest, I really don’t know how I feel about that because so much of the identity they have in my mind is wrapped up in their midway location and there are a lot of pros & cons for building a new park for a minor league team – not the least among them is timing. However, if YOU are interested in learning more from the team, they will be hosting a live chat on the facebook St. Paul Saints page from 4-5 pm.

Last but certainly not least is the best Hot Stove League Banquet I’ve ever attended – and it’s going on this Friday. It’s used as a fundraiser for the St. Paul little league although I’m sure that there will be a lot of Saints & Twins baseball discussion. I encourage you to check it out.