July 2018 – Knuckleballs

Dear Twins: Don’t Sell!

Posted on 27 July, 2018 by Jim Crikket

Like a lot of Twins fans, I think, I’ve been coasting a bit with my fandom. The results on the field have been disappointing.

Ervin Santana, Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton and Jorge Polanco hadn’t even been on the field much, if at all, during most of the first half of the season.

The expected two-team competition for the American League Central Division title quickly became no race at all, with Cleveland outpacing the pack.

So, I fell in line with the expectation that the Minnesota front office should and would be sellers at the July non-waiver trade deadline.

But a funny thing happens to me when I start to hear so many voices saying, “Sell!” in unison. I start looking for reasons to buy.

Yeah, my portfolio took a hit Thursday when Facebook shares dropped almost 20%. But I didn’t sell. I’m holding onto my Facebook stock. In fact, I’m probably going to add to my existing position after letting the dust settle for a few days.

I think that’s what the Twins should do, too.

No, I don’t mean they should invest in Facebook (though it wouldn’t be the worst investment the Twins have made over the years), I mean they should hold and maybe even buy.

When the chorus grew so loud in support of the Twins being a seller at the deadline that there was support for not only trading players with expiring contracts and/or little expectation that they’d be part of the 2019 roster, but also for sending Kyle Gibson and Ryan Pressly packing, I took a step back from the cliff.

If so many people were that convinced it was time to not only trade spare parts, but important 2019 cogs in the machinery, I wondered if maybe it’s time to do the opposite.

After all, a year ago, the front office gave up and started selling about this time (though it turned out they didn’t have a ton of guys that other teams were interested in buying). As we all know, the Twins overcame that lack of faith, forcing their way into the one-and-done AL Wild Card game.

But this is not 2017, obviously.

At the end of July a year ago, Minnesota trailed Cleveland by 6 ½ games in AL Central. This year, they trail by 7 after Thursday night’s win over Boston.

Last year, the Royals also stood between the Twins and the top of the Division. Not so this year. If Minnesota doesn’t mount a challenge, Cleveland will stroll to the Division title.

A year ago, not only were the Twins well off the pace being set by Cleveland, they were going the wrong direction. They had started the month of July three games above .500, tied for the second AL Wild Card spot and just two games behind the Indians in the Division race. They finished the month tied with Baltimore, 4 ½ games behind the Royals in the race for the second Wild Card and two games behind Seattle and Tampa.

Whatever momentum they had was moving them in the wrong direction so, of course, you sell.

But this is not 2017.

First of all, unlike a season ago, Minnesota will not be contending for an AL Wild Card spot.

A year ago, there was one very good AL team in Houston and a lot of mediocrity after that. This year, there are a pair of teams in the East and three in the West that are leaving pretty much everyone else, including the Twins (and Cleveland, for that matter), in the dust.

Entering July this season, the Twins at 35-44, were nine games under .500, eight games behind Cleveland in the standings and 15 ½ games back of the second WC spot.

That’s not ideal, I grant. They’ve gone 13-9 this month and only managed to trim one game off their deficit to the Division leaders. That being the case, nobody can be blamed for advocating that the Twins replace player surnames with “FOR SALE” on back of most players’ jerseys.

Unlike a year ago, however, Minnesota doesn’t need to claw their way through a crowded field in the hopes of earning a single play-in game at Yankee Stadium. They’re chasing one team and, if they should catch them, the reward is at least one full postseason series.

And, unlike a year ago, their momentum is moving them in the right direction, notwithstanding last weekend’s debacle in Kansas City.

The Twins also will face Cleveland ten times between now and the end of August. And it’s not like Minnesota has been beaten up by the Tribe this season, either. On the contrary. The Twins have won six of the nine games the two teams have completed this year.

Everyone seems to think this is the same Cleveland team that went to the World Series a couple years ago. It isn’t. Yes, they have three guys at the top of their batting order that are very good. You want to include Edwin Encarnacion, I’ll let you. But after that? Who are you really afraid of?

They have some pitching, yes. But that pitching hasn’t translated into as many wins in July as the Twins have notched and the Twins just added Ervin Santana, who didn’t look too rusty in his season debut this week.

Yes, the Minnesota front office could throw in the towel now. It appears that not a lot of fans would blame them. It has been a disappointing year, to this point.

They could get what they can for the guys with expiring contracts. Discard Lance Lynn, Brian Dozier, Eduardo Escobar, Zach Duke, even Joe Mauer if he’s inclined to approve of a deal to a contender. Probably add Jake Odorizzi to the list if you’re not of a mind to offer him arbitration for 2019. Likewise, maybe get someone interested in Santana if you don’t think you’ll pick up his $14 million club option for 2019.

Make way for the next round of young talent that’s stewing in Rochester and Chattanooga. Let them get their feet wet in August and September, then be ready to re-engage the battle for AL Central supremacy in 2019.

But is this really what we’ve come to? Baseball seasons are just four months long? If you’re a few games out of the top spot in your Division at the end of July, you pack it in and, “wait ‘til next year?”

I’m sure the folks running Cleveland’s club are hoping that’s what the Twins will do. If so, they can virtually coast through the final two months and prepare for the postseason.

I get that trading some (or all) of those players would potentially add a few pretty decent young prospects. And if the Twins’ farm system was in dire straights without much talent in the pipeline, maybe I’d go along with a fire sale right now. But that is not the case.

The Twins have some really good talent at every level of their minor league organization right now. Sure, you always want more because some guys with high ceilings just don’t pan out, but as much as I enjoy watching minor league baseball, let’s not lose sight of the fact that the purpose in all of this is to win at the Major League level.

As things stand, the Twins have a rotation of Santana, Berrios, Gibson, Lynn and Odorizzi. It may not be the equal of Cleveland’s, but it ain’t bad.

If you think Fernando Romero, Aaron Slegers or Stephen Gonsalves would perform better in the fifth spot than Odorizzi, then make that move. But do it because you think it not only will make your team better in 2019 but will also improve their chances to catch and pass Cleveland this year.

Or, here’s a thought – if you think you could improve your rotation, maybe trade FOR a better pitcher (ideally, one with at least another year of control left after this season), rather than selling off the ones you’ve got.

And please, just stop the talk about trading Kyle Gibson already. This is not a rebuild. If you really have given up on 2018, fine, but don’t give up on 2019, too.

With all of the problems this organization has had finding really good starting pitching, why would you trade a guy just when it looks like he’s becoming a really good starting pitcher and still has a year of team control left?

Just because you could get somewhat better prospects in return? They’re still prospects and you’re probably just going to hope that one of them ends up developing into a pitcher as good as Gibson.

As a fan base, we’ve been lulled into this never-ending routine that emphasizes acquisition and development of quality minor league talent. That’s all well and good until it takes over the organization’s mentality to the extent that they let a few games’ deficit in the standings in July keep them from even bothering to try to compete through the rest of the season.

I say let’s go for it!

What are you afraid of? If it doesn’t work out, you still have all the quality young talent waiting to fill in where needed next season and so much payroll money coming off the books that you won’t be able to figure out how to spend it all.

If you don’t take advantage of those 10 head-to-head meetings with Cleveland, there are still likely to be waiver deals to be made before the end of August. No, the returns may not be as good as they would be right now, but I’m pretty satisfied with where the Twins’ farm system sits now. I don’t need more.

I don’t want my baseball season to keep being four months long. I want the full six months.

I want to see if Santana, Buxton and Sano can overcome their personal setbacks and help turn the Twins into the kind of team nobody wants to have to face in September.

I want to see if this team, that was supposed to be a contender, can get some traction and do something to make Cleveland sweat a little bit. Don’t just hand them the Division. Let’s make things interesting for them.

That’s what competing is all about, isn’t it?

Trey Cabbage: Kernels’ Road Warrior

Posted on 16 July, 2018 by Jim Crikket

Trey Cabbage says he absolutely does not hate Cedar Rapids.

He may be hitting like he hates his team’s home town, but he insists that doesn’t mean he hates the city.

“Honestly, I don’t,” he claimed, with a smile, during an interview late last week. “I want to get out of here, but not because it’s Cedar Rapids. It wouldn’t matter if it was California, North Carolina or wherever, it’s just to move up to the next level.”

But sometimes it sure seems like he’s hitting like he has something against the town he’s been playing home ballgames in since about this time a year ago.

It’s not unusual in professional baseball for players to hit a little better at home than they do on the road or even a bit better than usual in one or two opponents’ ballparks.

As Cedar Rapids Kernels manager Toby Gardenhire explains, “Sometimes you see the ball better in different ballparks, sometimes with different backdrops, just different settings.”

But Cabbage, the Twins’ 21-year old 2015 4^th round draft pick, has taken things to a very unusual extreme this season.

Through Monday’s game, he’s played in 67 games for the Kernels and put up a .257/.331/.447 split and a .778 OPS. He’s also been on a roll this month, hitting .375 in his last ten games.

The overall numbers are what they are, but it’s the home/road split that’s eye-popping.

In 36 home games, he’s hit just .218, gotten on base at a .279 rate and slugged .353 for a .632 OPS. He’s hit a pair of home runs among his ten extra-base hits on Perfect Game Field at Veterans Memorial Stadium in Cedar Rapids. That includes a 3-hit game on Monday afternoon in a home series finale against Lake County that included a pair of two-baggers.

But in his 31 road games for the Kernels, he’s hit .299, reached base at a .384 clip and slugged .551, giving him a road OPS of .935. That’s 178 points higher than he’s put up at home.

Maybe he just really likes wearing grey uniform pants?

“It’s not the grey pants,” he claimed. “I guess, on the road, as soon as (batting practice) is over it’s like food – stretch – game. Here (at home games), there’s a little bit more time to sit down, so I don’t know if my body gets a little bit more lackadaisical or whatever. I go out there with the same intensity every game. I don’t know what it is.

Trey Cabbage watches what will become a double to the left-centerfield wall (Photo by SD Buhr)

“Me and Jordan (Gore) were talking during the (MWL) All-Star break, and I said, ‘Man, I don’t know what it is, I just like playing on the road.’ I guess with people, not really booing us, but kind of heckling us a little bit more. There’s almost a little bit of a chip on your shoulder.”

Last Thursday, however, Cabbage found a solution to his home woes, at least for one night. He went 4-for-4 with a home run (just his second round tripper at home, compared to five he’s smacked on the road this season) in a 6-2 win over Ft. Wayne.

“The first 4-hit game I’ve ever had in my life,” he said the next day. “I don’t know what I did, but I’m going to try to do the same thing today as I did yesterday. I put my socks on the same way, I’ll eat the same stuff. I’m a little superstitious.”

A superstitious baseball player? Imagine that.

Cabbage claims he’s not really that superstitious, but he does have certain routines that he follows consistently.

“Like going up on deck I do the same thing,” he explained. “I do the Happy Gilmore swing, I push my helmet to my forehead, tap it twice and then fix my bill. Then I do a top hand swing drill that I’ve done with (Elizabethton Twins hitting coach) Jeff Reed in E-Town. And then from then on, it’s just timing up the pitcher, but that’s my one thing I try to do every at-bat, every time I go on deck, I do that little routine.

Kernels manager Toby Gardenhire (left) and Trey Cabbage with a batting practice discussion. (Photo by SD Buhr)

“It’s funny because I look in behind (the backstop fence) and sometimes you’ll see people like, ‘look at this guy on deck, what the heck’s he doing?’”

Maybe those fans should start heckling him like a visiting player, instead. It’s just a thought.

His manager has been seeing consistency in more than just his on-deck circle routine, however, and Gardenhire has liked what he’s seen.

“He’s been very consistent all year and that’s one of the things going into the year that we talked to him about,” Gardenhire said. “In the past, he’ll be going along and something doesn’t go right and he wants to change things, then he wants to change it again and he wants to change it again.

“At some point, you’ve got to get where you’re consistent with things so you can let it play out a little bit. That’s what we talked to him about this year, was being consistent with his approach, be consistent with the things he does. And he’s done a really good job all year of that.”

A lot has been said and written this season about the game of professional baseball becoming a contest where “three true outcomes” dominate the game. For better or worse, with the way pitchers are ramping up velocities and throwing more breaking balls, it has been becoming a game of strikeouts, walks and home runs. It’s all about fastball velocity and exit velocity (the speed at which the ball comes off the bat).

Cabbage, at 6’ 3” and just a bit over 200 pounds, may be exactly that type of player as his game evolves and his body continues to develop.

“He’s a big, strong guy and he’s got a big beard now, so he doesn’t look young, but he’s young,” his manager said. “He’s probably still got a ways to go with some things, but he’s improved a lot. He’s going to strike out some. He’s a big power hitter guy. That’s what power hitters do, strike out some. But he’s also going to light some fastballs up and that’s what he’s done this year. It’s been good to watch, it’s fun.”

When he talks hitting philosophy, Cabbage certainly sounds like a guy intent on being a power hitter.

“I don’t worry about manipulating the ball,” he said. “That’s what I was doing early in the season, that’s when I was late, swinging and missing or fouling balls off that I should be hitting.”

What Cabbage has been doing lately when he makes contact could hardly be described as manipulating the ball with his bat.

“Baseball, it doesn’t ever really even out from hard hit balls getting caught to bleeders falling in, but I would rather be out by hitting the ball hard right at somebody or somebody running it down and making a great play than saying, ‘well, I was trying to inside-out that ball because it was outside.’

“If you hit to get hits, then you’re trying to be perfect. If you’re hitting to get hits, it’s basically hitting to not make outs, which is when you start manipulating, changing the swing, changing the approach, in between pitches, during an at-bat, in between at-bats.

“I just go up there trying to make hard contact. I’d rather play with that and take my chances, than flipping balls over. Usually guys with higher exit velos and more barrels, they’re going to hit for a higher average than a guy that’s just up there trying to flip balls. Now, obviously with two strikes, you’ve got more of a defensive mindset, just trying to make contact, but if it’s an optimal count, you try to do damage.”

Cabbage has been doing his share of damage in the second half of the season and is one reason his team has been sitting at or near the top of the Midwest League’s Western Division second-half standings.

But Gardenhire also likes what he’s been seeing of Cabbage’s defense.

“I’ve really been pleasantly surprised with how good he is in the outfield,” the skipper said. “He’s very athletic out there. He’s got a good arm. He moves to the ball really well.

“You know, sometimes that’s tough to do for a guy that’s coming from the infield to the outfield. He was a third baseman and we put him at first some, but when we put him in the outfield, he moved around really well out there, so he can do that for sure. I’ve been impressed with that.”

Now, we just need to get him to be as impressive at home as he’s been on the road.

I still think they should make him wear grey uniform pants at home.

Gore and Dobnak Leading By Example

Posted on 7 July, 2018 by Jim Crikket

After the Cedar Rapids Kernels finished batting practice on a warm, humid July 4 afternoon, two of the most productive players on their roster agreed to sit down and talk about the season.

Jordan Gore and Randy Dobnak go through Kernels pre-game workouts on July 4, 2018 (Photo by SD Buhr)

One, an infielder, has been hitting over .300 with an on-base percentage around .400 virtually all season. (And three days after the interview, his bags were packed for Chattanooga, where he’d been promoted to join former Kernels manager Tommy Watkins’ Lookouts.)

The other, a starting pitcher, is 6-2 on the season and leads the Kernels in innings pitched.

Unless you’re a pretty serious student of the Minnesota Twins’ minor league system or a Kernels season ticket holder, there’s a chance you’ve never heard of either of them.

Jordan Gore was selected by the Twins out of Coastal Carolina in the 17^th round of the 2017 draft and Randy Dobnak never got a post-draft call at all after completing his college career at Alderson Broaddus University in West Virginia. They made the most of their college days on and off the field, both making the Dean’s List regularly at their respective schools.

Gore started his college career at South Carolina before transferring to Coastal Carolina in his hometown of Conway, SC, where he underwent Tommy John surgery and ended up sitting out the Chanticleers’ NCAA championship season in 2016. Having to sit out that championship season wasn’t as tough for Gore as one might think.

“Honestly you can say so,” Gore said, “but I’ve said this time and time again. That was best group of guys that I’ve ever been around as far as pulling for each other, working hard, all around good personalities and good people. It was probably better for me to sit back and watch how they did it. They taught me a lot about how to play the game the right way.

“I’ve got nothing but love for everybody at Coastal. I tell you what, it made me a lot better person and a player.”

Dobnak pitched for Alderson Broadus University in Philippi, West Virginia, where he had a career 26-12 record and set a Great Midwest Athletic Conference record with 284 career strikeouts.

You wouldn’t fault Gore, a shortstop by trade, if he had been more than a little troubled by the fact that he was drafted by an organization that also used the first overall pick of the 2017 draft to select a guy who plays the same position. But Gore says he wasn’t concerned at all at the prospect of trying to work his way up through the Twins farm system virtually in tandem with top prospect Royce Lewis.

“Honestly, I was just happy to get the call because after my last (college) game it kind of hit me, man this could be the last time I lace my spikes up,” Gore said, concerning his draft position, “and Royce is a great guy. It’s great to be playing with him. It’s a lot of fun.”

Gore didn’t exactly follow the draft moment by moment, waiting to hear his name called, but admits being relieved when it was over.

“I tried to keep my mind off of it,” he recalled. “I tried to just stay away from thinking about it too much. When I finally did get the call, it was a lot off my shoulders because you can try not to think about it as much as you want, but it’s always going to be there.”

While Gore had to be patient on draft day, Dobnak wasn’t all that surprised that he didn’t get a call when the draft had been completed.

“Being in the mountains of West Virginia, there were a few teams that were talking to me or my coaches,” he explained. “But when they’d try and come see me play, we’d get rained out, snowed out. too cold. So, I didn’t really know what to expect (on draft day).”

Not being drafted didn’t mean Dobnak was ready to call it a career, however. He used a connection made in his freshman year of college to land a spot on the pitching staff of the Utica Unicorns, an independent minor league team in a four-team league about an hour outside Detroit, Michigan.

“I played there for like a month. I had played with (the manager’s) son. He was my catcher my freshmen and sophomore year (of college). After a freshman year tournament, we were all out to eat and his dad was like, ‘I want you come play for my team once you graduate.’ Three years later, I’m like, ‘Alright, let’s do this thing.’”

A few weeks later, he signed with the Twins and he spent the rest of last summer in Elizabethton and Cedar Rapids.

Dobnak put up a combined ERA of 2.43 and a WHIP of 0.96 in six appearances (four as a starter) at the two 2017 stops and has followed that up with a very solid first three months with the Kernels this summer. In 14 appearances (11 of them as a starter), he has a 3.74 ERA and has struck out 49 batters, while walking just 13.

He has averaged seven innings of work in his last five starts for the Kernels.

At the time of his promotion to Chattanooga on July 7, Gore was hitting .307 with a solid .770 OPS and had a .333 average and 1.044 OPS in the month of July. While splitting infield time with Royce Lewis, Andrew Bechtold and Jose Miranda, Gore has made 33 appearances at second base, 23 at shortstop, five at third base and even made one late-game mop up appearance on the mound for Cedar Rapids.

On a team seemingly filled with very young talent, Gore and Dobnak have stood out as 23-year-olds and their manager, Toby Gardenhire, has appreciated the level of effort and leadership they’ve brough to the field, as well as the clubhouse.

“He’s been great,” the manager said of Dobnak. “He grabs the ball and goes out there and does whatever you want him to do. He works really hard every day, shows up ready to go. He’s the epitome of the guy that you want on your team. He doesn’t say much, he just goes out there and does his job every day.

“His skill level has been great, he’s done a great job, but the big thing for us is that he’s very professional with everything that he does. When you have this many young guys on a team like we do that you’re trying to teach how to be professionals, then you need guys like him where you can say, ‘Hey you see how Dobnak does this? You see what he does? You see how he goes about his business? That’s the way it needs to be. That’s how you have to act.’

“So, aside from the fact that he’s doing great, which is all credit to him and how hard he works, he’s just a great person. He’s a great leader for us.”

Gardenhire offered a similar strong endorsement for Gore.

“Gore’s the same way,” his manager said. “He’s ‘game on.’ He’s funny, but the way he goes about his business, the way he goes out and gets it every day – when you put him in the lineup, you know what you’re going to get from him. You’re going to get effort. Dives all over the place and will do anything to win baseball games.

“You would think that with baseball players in professional baseball, you’re going to have a whole group of guys that just want to try to win games, that will do anything for the team, but it’s not always like that. That’s a taught trait. You either have something in you that says ‘Hey, I’ll do whatever it takes to win this game’ or you have to learn that. He’s one of those guys, he just has it. That’s what he wants. He wants to win and he’ll do anything.

“I always call those guys dirtballs. He’s driving all over the place. You’re not going to see him with his uniform clean for very long in a game. That’s one of those things, again, when you have a whole bunch of young talented guys like we have, to have a guy like that who shows them the way. They see him diving all over the place. He’s mad when we lose and he gets fired up. They see that and it starts to kind of rub off on them. That’s what you want.”

A couple of relatively unheralded players on a team stocked with highly-regarded younger prospects could be forgiven if they felt some pressure to perform well enough to get noticed by their front office, but neither Gore nor Dobnak sounded like that was the case for them.

“I don’t think it’s pressure,” Gore said. “Speaking for myself, I come out here and want to work hard. This is fun for us! I mean it’s the best job in the world, right?

“Yep,” concurred Dobnak.

“I mean, come on, who wouldn’t want to come out here and work hard?” asked Gore, “because when you work hard, you tend to play well. It makes it a lot more fun.”

Neither player is concerning himself too much with what’s going on with the Twins’ affiliates at the higher levels, however.

“I check out the scores and see how some of the guys I know are doing,” conceded Dobnak. “I just think if you prove to your coaches or front office that you’re good enough to move up, they’ll move you up. But all the guys, they work hard. They all work the same. You go out there and do whatever you’ve got to do. Compete.”

“I try not to think about (promotions), I’ll be honest with you,” said Gore. “I’m around a great bunch of guys every day and it’s a lot of fun. It doesn’t really pop into your head much. We’re just out here trying to win and we’ve been doing that here lately.”

Given that Gore earned a promotion three days after those comments, his approach obviously worked for him.

One thing that comes through in virtually every conversation you have with any of this group of Kernels is how much they enjoy their teammates. It’s a close group, but even in the tightest of clubhouses, there will be differences. Gore and Dobnak are not completely in agreement in one aspect of the game.

Dobnak’s Twitter profile includes a reference to the hashtag #BanTheDH. Gore doesn’t sound ready to give away the at-bats he gets on days he DHs.

“Let the pitchers hit,” said Dobnak.

And why? “Because it’s more fun for the pitchers. When you grow up, you pitch, you hit, you play the infield!”

It’s all about the pitchers, right Jordan?

“No offense to the pitchers out there, but you’re probably giving up an out every time,” a smiling Gore responded.

“I’m just kidding,” the professional hitter in the conversation added. “We’ve got a lot of good athletes on the (pitching staff), I’m sure they could probably pick up a stick and hit it.”