Author Archives: Jim Crikket

Hints of a New Twins Paradigm?

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I’m one of those people who likes to look beyond whether a decision is good or bad to determine the underlying reason a particular move was made. So while most of Twinsville spent last night debating whether the Twins’ decision to re-sign Matt Capps was good or bad (or apocolyptical), I’ve been trying to figure out WHY Terry Ryan made that decision.

I know they like Capps. I do too. I’m a little surprised more fans don’t, but fans are weird. And inconsistently hypocritical. The same fans that trash Joe Mauer for being soft and not playing through aches and pains, even if he wouldn’t have been at 100% also trash Matt Capps (and Michael Cuddyer, too, for that matter) for doing exactly that. Basically, fans apparently want players to perform at 100%+, regardless of their physical condition.

Matt Capps

But the reason the Twins are bringing back Capps can’t just be because they like his toughness and his presence in the clubhouse. Can it?

Terry Ryan has indicated he’s expecting payroll to come down considerably. He knows he has other needs to fill, so that $4.5 million he’s paying Capps is no small thing. But beyond that, Ryan is also turning his back on a supplemental draft pick. That’s not really as big a deal to me as it is to a lot of other people, but it certainly seems like the kind of thing that would be a big deal to Terry Ryan.

Ryan seems to be one of those baseball guys that loves the challenge of identifying and obtaining young talent more than just about any other phase of the game. The Twins, historically, have hoarded draft picks like they were gold. They didn’t sign Type A free agents. The didn’t often re-sign their own Type A or Type B free agents. They LOVED high draft picks.

Until now.

During a pre-Winter Meetings chat with local media, Ryan was asked about whether a compensatory pick was a consideration as they pursued deals with Capps, Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer. I was struck at the time by how un-Twinslike his response was. “We’ll take it, but we’d rather have the player.”

I’ve seen that quote in two different reliable sources (Phil Mackey and LaVelle E. Neal III) now, so I have no reason to question its accuracy. Questioning whether the ghost of George Steinbrenner has taken over Terry Ryan’s body has remained a viable option, however.

When the Twins no longer are as concerned about high draft picks when determining whether or not to sign a player who isn’t a superstar, something has changed.

As I skimmed through our blogroll this morning to read what those fine Twins bloggers had written overnight about the Capps deal, I think I may have found at least one possible answer. At least it makes more sense to me than anything else I’ve considered.

Over at Baseball Outsider, Edward Thoma wrote:

“I don’t believe for a moment that the Twins don’t take the value of compensation picks into serious consideration. Their historic reluctance to give up first round picks to sign Type A free agents is evidence of that.

“But I wonder if they are uncertain today of the real value of those picks under the new labor agreement and the formalized, enforceable restrictions on spending. I haven’t seen any explanation of how the spending ceilings are to be set, but if the ceilings are too low, it may be difficult to get high school prospects to sign— which will push teams to overdraft collegians and thin out the quality choices by the time the sandwich picks come up.

“If that’s a realistic possibility, then Ryan has a good point about preferring the player to the pick. Draft picks are hardly a sure thing.”

It makes some sense when you think about it. If the new bonus ceilings are low enough that teams are going to be reluctant to draft high school players in the first round and risk having them decide to go to college instead of playing Rookie Ball, it won’t take long before the best college players are off the board. That could leave teams with supplemental round picks having to decide between choosing from the college leftovers that in prior years would have been 2nd and 3rd rounders, HS players that you can no longer offer “above slot” money to, and HS players that you think are “signable” (who also probably would have been lower round picks in previous years).

So, if you’re the Twins, you have to be asking yourself just how good the prospect is that you’re losing by signing one of your own free agents. It’s impossible to know for sure, but it doesn’t take a lot of imagination to foresee that the quality of those supplemental round picks could take a nosedive under the new system.

Which brings us back to the original point. Is it possible that the Twins have given more thought to this possibility than fans have? Is it possible that Terry Ryan knows more than we do? And if high draft picks turn out to be less likely to turn in to contributing Major League players (and it’s not like it’s a guarantee already), is it possible that this is evidence of a significant shift in Twins philosophy?

I, for one, am willing to admit that it’s not only possible, but likely, that Ryan is smarter than we are. The rest, only time will tell.

In the end, none of us will know for a while whether the Capps deal turns out to be a good one. By spring, we’ll know if he’s healthy. By draft day, we’ll know what the compensation pick would have been like, and by this time next year we’ll know if it all worked out.

For now, we just see how Day 2 of the Winter Meetings plays out. It seems it’s starting with a small bang as Kevin Slowey has been traded to the Rockies for the infamous “player to be named later.” In other words, the Twins cleared a roster spot and are in no hurry to fill it.

Best of luck to Slowey. I hope he finds success in Colorado.

– JC

Winter Meetings Chat: Day 1 (7:00-9:00 pm)

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As promised, we’re opening up our live Chat window for a couple of hours tonight (beginning at 7 pm CT) and plan to do the same throughout this week’s MLB Winter Meetings.

Everyone who’s anyone in professional baseball (and a few hundred people who, frankly, aren’t anyone in professional baseball, but would like to be) are buzzing around the Hilton Anatole Hotel in Dallas this week and we’re going to try to keep up with whatever business gets accomplished (it has to be difficult to concentrate on work with a Medieval Times dinner tournament right next door, doesn’t it?).

When we’ve wrapped up our chat here, we suggest you move over to the podcast being broadcast by Seth Stohs and Jack Steal over at their Blogspot Radio site, beginning at 9 pm every night during the Winter Meetings.

Just to give us some ideas for discussion, here’s a brief rundown of some of the news items coming out of Dallas on Day 1:

  • Starting with the latest news first, it finally happened… after all the conjecture, the Twins did in fact come to an agreement to re-sign Matt Capps. Capps gets a one year deal with an option. I’m sure the details will be coming out soon. UPDATE: The deal is $4.5 million for 2012 and an option for $6 million in 2013 with a $250K buyout. Makes it a guarantee of one year and $4.75 million. That’s overpaying a little, but not worth all the crying about it going on elsewhere. If he performs at career averages, it’s fine… and better than shelling out $7-8 million for a “closer”.
  • The day started out with the bad news that both Jim Kaat and Tony Oliva failed to garner the necessary 12 votes to be elected to the Hall of Fame by the “golden era” veterans’ committee. Kaat was 2 votes short and Oliva fell 4 short. Only former Cub Ron Santo was elected. I suppose that was to be expected, but it’s disappointing, nonetheless.
  • It’s hard to tell information from misinformation during these meetings, since it’s become important for GMs and agents to use misdirection to keep other parties as uncertain as possible concerning their true intentions. That means that today’s “rumor” that the Twins may be likely to re-sign Michael Cuddyer for a more modest contract (in years, if not dollars) than previously assumed could be either an indication that Cuddy is on the verge of remaining a Twin or that someone is just trying to give that impression.
  • The Twins reportedly are one of nine teams that have “made a call” regarding OF Josh Willingham. Reports indicate the Twins have set up a meeting with his agent for Thursday, unless the Twins sign Cuddyer before then.
  • Conjecture is that the Twins are still interested in Edwin Jackson, however he’s not likely to sign until the market has been set by CJ Wilson and/or Mark Buehrle. Waiting is probably fine with the Twins, since they’re still waiting on a Cuddyer decision and whatever slim chance there is that they’d open the wallet for Jackson would disappear if Cuddyer is re-signed.
  • Parker Hageman, at Over The Baggy, does a good job of explaining why the Twins might be interested in pitcher Jeff Francis. That said, the Pirates and Mariners are now talking to Francis’ agent, as well, and I sure wouldn’t want to see the Twins get in a bidding war for him.
  • Another report has the Twins inquiring with the Rangers about the availability of OF David Murphy. He’s not a bad ballplayer but I’m just not sure that adding yet another left handed hitter is the best idea. If this deal happens, then I’ll be very surprised if it isn’t followed with another trade of either Revere or Span.
  • The Twins did claim shortstop Pedro Florimon from the Orioles. 24 yo switch-hitter hit with a little pop at AA Bowie but not much at all in a short cup of coffee with the O’s. The Twins added him to their Major League roster, filling the 39th spot and leaving one spot open for a Major Leaguer the Twins trade for (or player they pick up in the Rule V draft) before they would have to start making corresponding roster moves to clear spots for other acquisitions. Our friend Thrylos provides some details about Florimon over at The Tenth Inning Stretch.
  • ESPNDeportes reported that the Twins are one of five teams interested in Carlos Guillen. Going to have to take someone’s word for that since I don’t speak Spanish.
  • Later in the afternoon, we heard that the Twins, Nationals, Marlins and Rangers are “in on” Mark Buehrle, but that the Twins’ offer isn’t as strong as the offers from from the other three teams (now THERE’s a surprise, right?).
  • One interesting comment coming out of the Twins’ late afternoon session with the media came from ESPN1500’s Phil Mackey who Tweeted “I asked Terry how much #Twins consider draft compensation w/ FA decisions: “Not that much. We’ll take it. But we’d rather have the player.”

Considering how quiet the Twins usually are during the Winter Meetings, that’s an awful lot of stuff to chat about tonight!

– JC

One Small Step For Mauer

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The Redeemer lives!

Yeah, that’s a little too close to sacrilege for my taste, but I couldn’t resist.

This is what happens when it’s a slow news day over at Target Field. After a workout Friday, Joe Mauer called a little bit of an impromptu news conference to set the public record straight about his health, both physical and mental, and his plans for leading the Twins on the road back to relevancy. The next thing you know, the social media sites are buzzing all over the place!

Then, over the course of the afternoon and evening, reporters from various media outlets posted quotes from St. Joe. Here are a few samples culled from articles authored by LaVelle E. Neal III at the Star-Tribune and John Shipley at the Pioneer-Press and Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com and Phil Mackey of 1500 ESPNRadio.

“Here I am. I’m healthy. I’m happy,” Mauer said. “I can rule out crazy things I’ve heard like Lyme disease, Lou Gehrig’s disease, rheumatoid arthritis, lupus. I think we’ve heard it all. I don’t have any of those things.”

“I’m getting really excited for next season,” he said. “I’ve recovered from pneumonia. I think you might be able to tell I’ve got my weight back. I’ve been working out for a couple of weeks. … Everything looks good, and I should be ready to go Day 1 of camp.”

In response to a question about whether it bothered him that some people considered him “soft” and questioned his willingness to play through injuries, Mauer responded: “At times. I think what surprised me a lot was a couple things out there questioning my work ethic, and that bugged me a little bit because I think guys who have been around know how hard I work and how much time I put into what I do,” he said. “So that’s one thing that frustrated me a little bit.”

“I don’t think anybody took it harder than me,” Mauer said of 2011. “That’s the thing. I was not a happy person last year. I was angry. I was frustrated, ultimately because I couldn’t get out on the field and help my team. It’s not a fun feeling coming to the park knowing you’re not feeling good and that you’re trying to battle every day doing the best you can.”

“I don’t think anyone has higher expectations than myself,” Mauer said. “Obviously my biggest goal coming into 2012 is just to stay healthy. I think when I’m on the field things will take care of itself.”

He said he would have done many things differently. Primarily, he said, he should have been more forthcoming about what he was going through.

“I just feel that, and I’ve told people in the organization this, if I’m not out there playing, the fans should know why,” he said. “People are going to have their own opinions, and you can’t control that. As long as the organization, my family, my friends and the fans know what’s going on, that’s what’s important to me. You can’t control what someone thinks.”

“I think the biggest thing is how often we’ve been winning,” he said. “We’ve been in the playoffs quite a bit since I’ve been here. Yeah, people look at (my salary) and things like that, and, like I said, you can’t worry about what people think.

“People are going to have their own opinions, but I think why people were so frustrated last year is that we’ve been to the playoffs quite a bit the last few years, and we weren’t a playoff team last year.”

Mauer said he accepts his role as a team leader, and toward that end has been in touch with free agent Michael Cuddyer about re-signing with the team. He’s checked in with Denard Span, who told him he’s feeling good after missing a large part of last season because of postconcussion syndrome. He had dinner last week with Justin Morneau.

“I told Terry and everybody here that I’m here to do everything I can to help out,” Mauer said. “I want to be part of the solution that gets us back to where we need to get to.”

“I’m excited,” he said. “I feel good. Just getting after it in the gym. Once January comes around, more baseball activities. Throwing hitting, things like that. And it’s exciting.”

“I think, obviously, getting guys healthy will help,” Mauer said. “Having a Justin Morneau, having a Denard Span and myself, those are three pretty good players right there. Seeing [closer Joe] Nathan go, I mean that’s a great player right there, too, and a great guy. What we have in this clubhouse, I mean, it’s not a 99-loss team. I can tell you that right now.”

Despite his comments to the contrary, I think it’s pretty clear that Mauer DOES care what people say and think about him. And he should, if for no other reason than you don’t see a lot of athletes with a “soft” reputation getting big money for endorsements. That’s not the image Gatorade wants to be associated with.

I know I’ve been a bit rough on Joe Mauer myself at times (arguably, as recently as the post on Thursday), but my take on his comments is that they reflect a step… perhaps a small step… in the right direction by Mauer.

In short, he’s doing the things we should want him doing. He’s talking straight about how disappointing 2011 was for the team and for him personally and how he should have done things differently, starting with being more forthcoming about his health and injury situations. He’s getting his health in order. He’s getting his weight and strength built up. He even appears to be ready and willing to step up and help the organization recruit free agents, whether their own, such as Cuddyer, or any others that Terry Ryan may be trying to bring in.

In other words, he appears to be stepping up the way you’d like to see a team leader do. I’d say he did well on Friday.

I don’t think that comes particularly natural to Mauer and maybe that’s why I found his effort Friday to be encouraging. He seemed to be recognizing that he needed to step outside his comfort zone.

Here’s hoping we see more of this kind of leadership and accountability from him as the 2012 season draws nearer.

– JC

M&M: Time to Step Up or Shut Up

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I’ve grown tired of complaining about the Twins’ stated plans to slash payroll by over 10% and that’s probably indicative that anyone who stops by here from time to time is probably tired of reading those complaints. It’s not like the Twins front office is going to bother explaining their thinking to a blogger and the “traditional media” seems uninterested in asking for justification from the Twins. 

GM Jim Crikket (image: clkr.com)

So, I’m going to do what I usually do when I can’t get anyone to answer my questions. I’m going to assume the role of a person who knows the answer and provide it myself. In that vein, then, here is what I believe to be our blog’s first exclusive interview… with “GM” Jim Crikket.

Knuckleballs: Mr. Crikket, thank you for taking time out of your busy day to talk to us. We know you’ve got the Winter Meetings coming up in Dallas and you certainly have a lot of work to do to prepare.

GM Jim Crikket: I’m glad to have the opportunity and actually there isn’t a whole lot of preparation necessary for the Winter Meetings. It’s not like we’re going to actually do any work there. May go check out the JFK Museum in the old School Book Depository.

Knuckleballs: Um. OK. So that means we shouldn’t expect the Twins to be making any big deals at the Winter Meetings swap meet?

GM JC: Oh the swap meet? Sure! There’s a HUGE swap meet over at a place across the street from Love Field. It’s like a giant indoor flea market. Now that you mention it, that may be better than the JFK Museum.

Knuckleballs: Mr. Crikket, Twins fans all over have been asking why the front office is imposing a significantly reduced payroll for 2012. Can you explain the reasoning?

GM JC: I’m glad to get this opportunity to do just that. I had been hoping someone in the media would ask the question so we could get the facts out there, but all they seem to ask about is whether we’re talking to Michael Cuddyer.

Knuckleballs: So, why cut payroll?

GM JC: The simple answer is, because we expect revenues to drop.

Knuckleballs: Yes, Twins president, Dave St. Peter, Tweeted something to that effect, but didn’t specify what revenues or how much they’ll drop.

GM JC: I think he did provide those details, but that darn 140 character limit might have cut that part out. Anyway… here’s the bottom line:

We don’t think three million people will show up to watch a bad baseball team… or at least they won’t do that two years in a row. Season ticket sales may stay high, but if people don’t actually attend the games all season long, they don’t buy $8 beer or $10 sandwiches and they certainly won’t be buying many $125 jerseys with the names of players who don’t even play very often. That stuff adds up.

Knuckleballs: You’re referring to Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau?

GM JC: Yes… and Denard Span and Scott Baker and Francisco Liriano and that shortstop from Japan who’s name I haven’t figured out how to pronounce yet. Pretty much everyone but Pavano. That guy can be a bit of a prick but at least he shows up for work every day.

Knuckleballs: So you don’t think the unusual amount of time Twins players spent on the DL in 2011 was just a fluke?

GM JC: It might have been. Then again, who knows?

Knuckleballs: What DO you know?

GM JC: We know we signed a lot of guys to a lot of multi-year contracts that have made them all multi-millionaires just to play baseball and that most of them didn’t play much baseball last year. We also know we lost 99 games.

Knuckleballs: But what kind of message does it send to fans and, more importantly, to your core of players, when you decide already that you aren’t going to spend the money it might take to surround your stars with proven players?

GM JC: It should tell our fans that we at least noticed that the team sucked last season and we’re not going to spend $115 million on another team that sucks in 2012. As a matter of fact, it should tell our “stars” the same thing.

Knuckleballs: Won’t guys like Mauer and Morneau wonder whether the front office is committed to winning?

GM JC: They might. But then again, that’s only fair, because the front office is wondering just how committed Mauer and Morneau and a few of the others, for that matter, are to winning.

Knuckleballs: You don’t think they want to win?

GM JC: Of course they want to win. Everybody wants to win. But you don’t always get everything you want. You have to do more than want it.

Look, for a bunch of guys who have a reputation for being “quiet leaders”, some of these guys have sure felt free to speak up about what they want. They wanted the trees dug up in center field because they kept them from hitting. We dug them up. That didn’t work so they wanted the “batters eye” changed. We did that and they still didn’t hit. Now they want the fences brought in, but at this point, we’re not convinced that will do anything except increase the number of home runs our pitchers give up.

When we were negotiating all these contracts, they all said they wanted to see our commitment to spending enough money on payroll to win. We did that and we got 99 losses for our efforts. It’s time for the players to show the front office that they’re going to live up to their end of the bargain.

Some of these guys talk about how they demonstrate leadership not by talking a lot but by leading on the field. That’s fine, but it’s time to start doing that.

Knuckleballs: So you’re saying the $100 million mark is a hard limit?

GM JC: I don’t believe in setting hard limits, but it’s a fair estimate of what our Opening Day payroll will be. I can say with certainty that it won’t be what the payroll is at the end of the season. There will be plenty of room to add quality players at mid-season if Mauer, Morneau and the rest have been healthy and productive the first half of the season and the team is playing well enough to be in contention.

Think about it. If our guys get off their butts and play baseball, we’ll have $15 million we can spend over the last three months of the season without exceeding 2011’s payroll. That means we could, theoretically, add rental players that are getting paid $30 million annually, since we’d only be paying them for half the season.

But if our studs sit on their asses from April through June, with weak legs and headaches and sore wrists and stiff whatevers… we’ll be looking to dump just about any player making over $1 million per year that any other team shows an interest in and we’ll start over from scratch a year from now.

But one way or another, the players who wear Twins uniforms in August and September this season will be guys who want to play baseball, not just hang around the clubhouse, wear a Big League uniform and do commercials.

Knuckleballs: Well that’s hard to argue with. Thank you for explaining the club’s position.

Yes… I know… this was nothing but a bit of fictional blogdom fantasy. But you know what? If Terry Ryan or Dave St. Peter would just come straight out and send this message to fans, I’d stand up and applaud. And I’d certainly get off their backs about the payroll.

– JC

 

Hump Day “Hmmmmm”s

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Today was hump day and here’s a rundown of a few things that made me go “hmmmmm” today.

Matt Capps

Matt Capps

There’s been a lot written in Twins blogdom about the pros and cons of re-signing Matt Capps. There’s certainly room for fair debate since Capps’ history with the Twins has been inconsistent.

But here’s what makes me go “hmmmmm”… Since the announcement that the Twins would get a supplemental round draft pick in 2012 if Capps signs elsewhere, without having to offer him arbitration, there’s been almost unanimous opinion expressed that this settles the question on the side of, “don’t bring him back.” Yet, it’s not as if giving Terry Ryan extra high draft picks to work with guarantees he’ll turn them in to productive Major Leaguers.

As Nick Nelson reminds us, in 2004 Ryan had a boatload of high picks which he turned in to shortstop Trevor Plouffe and pitchers Glen Perkins, Kyle Waldrop, Matt Fox and Jay Rainville. I’m not intending to pick on any of those players or on Ryan, but merely to remind everyone that even high draft picks face long odds against becoming productive Major Leaguers.

The bottom line is that I agree that the draft pick compensation the Twins can get for Capps does make it less likely that they re-sign him, but I’m not so certain that it should.

Twins Winter Meeting Trade Market

I opined in an earlier post that the period between now and the end of the Winter Meetings may determine the Twins’ 2012 fate. Even earlier than that, I published a couple of posts containing “blueprints” for how I would go about assembling a roster for 2012 if I were GM. In fact, November has been pretty much non-stop chatter about what Terry Ryan (and before him, Bill Smith) should do. But the more I hmmmmmm, the more I’m convinced that I know what Ryan and the Twins will do over the next two weeks.

Absolutely nothing.

He doesn’t have the money to sign a Mark Buehrle or Edwin Jackson or Josh Willingham (or even a Michael Cuddyer, though he won’t come right out and say it). Most of the second and third tier of free agents aren’t going to sign anywhere until some of the top tier start signing and establishing the market rates.

Ordinarily, Ryan could make a trade or two to free up some payroll space, but he really can’t even do that for a while. There are two times you want to make meaningful trades… one is when the player(s) you are offering are at peak value and the other is when the player(s) you are offering play positions that are in high demand compared to number of options on the market. Quick, off the top of your head, how many players does Ryan have that fit either of those criteria?

If you make a list of the players Ryan could look to trade to shed salary, almost all of them are coming off “down” years. He’d be selling low on Mauer (who has a no-trade clause anyway), Morneau, Baker, Liriano, Span, Nishioka, Blackburn, Slowey… almost every player earning more than $1 million a year. Except Carl Pavano.

Pavano might bring fair value, but it’s not going to happen within two weeks. There’s no shortage of teams who want the kind of rotation help Pavano would bring, but almost all of them still think they’re in the mix for Wilson, Buehrle, Jackson and others. Only when those players land elsewhere will teams be likely to consider trading away meaningful talent for Pavano. Ryan needs to wait until the demand for Pavano rises before even considering a trade.

“Experienced Closer”

The last thing a team with serious doubts concerning their expected competitiveness needs to do is spend more than $4-5 million for a “closer”.  If it’s a questionable use of resources to overspend for guys who have racked up “saves” when you’re a contender, then it’s insanity to do so when you probably aren’t. Hold auditions in Spring Training and if they carry over in to April, that’s fine, too.

As for the rest of the bullpen, I’m perfectly fine with not spending $2-3 million per arm to fill out the pen. I was similarly fine with that approach last off-season. It wasn’t the plan that was faulty last year, it was the execution of that plan. The problem was that the players the front office brought in were not good pitchers.

And by the way, the people who made the decisions about which pitchers to sign and invite to Spring Training were the same people in charge now. Bill Smith didn’t make those evaluations, Terry Ryan and the scouting staff did. Then Gardy and Andy decided which pitchers to take north to start the season. All of those people are still making those decisions. Just sayin’.

Anyway, I just don’t see Terry Ryan as likely to do anything any time soon. He’s just got pretty limited options right now.

Twins Hall of Fame

The Twins are lettng the fans have a say in who the next inductee(s) might be to the organization’s own Hall of Fame. It’s not clear to me how much weight the fans’ votes carry, but it doesn’t really matter because it is clear that to vote you have to broadcast your votes via Twitter or Facebook. I don’t care enough to do that.

For what it’s worth, though, I’d strongly support Camillo Pascual and Cesar Tovar for induction. Frankly, it’s rediculous that they aren’t already in. You could also make the same statement about Chuck Knoblauch if all you base the determination on is his performance on the field while he was a Twin. That said, given all that happened with Knoblauch toward the end of his time with the team and on through the disclosure of his use of steroids, I’d also be perfectly fine with not inducting him right now. Let’s face it, he wouldn’t show up for the induction anyway, so why bother? Give the honor to someone who truly would appreciate it.

Programming note:

Jack Steal (Fanatic Jack Talks Twins) has returned to Blogspot Radio and he’s asked me to be a guest on the podcast tonight (Nov 30). The podcast starts at 9:00 pm and I’m tentatively scheduled to join about 20 minutes after the hour.

Figuring out why anyone would care to listen to me is truly something to hmmmmmm about.

– JC

Two Weeks May Determine Twins’ 2012 Fate

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Now that the Twins front office has had a chance to let their Thanksgiving feasts settle, it’s time to go to work. The next two weeks should pretty much let everyone know whether the Twins will put a competitive team on the field in 2012 or whether Terry Ryan has opted to go in to full “rebuild” mode with his sights set on 2013 and beyond.

The atrium of Dallas' Hilton Anatole will be buzzing next week

MLB’s Winter Meetings kick off next Monday, but as FOX Sports’ Jon Paul Morosi indicates in his November 28 column, the week before the Winter Meetings are often just as critical as the few days the meetings are held.

Of course, this period is not traditionally a busy period for the Twins’ front office. Their reputation is one for sitting out the swap meet that the Winter Meetings can become for many teams, in favor of picking over the Free Agent leftovers after the first of the year.

Then again, it hasn’t been often that the Twins have had so many needs to fill.

Projecting a 25-man roster from the players currently holding spots on the Twins’ 40-man roster is all but impossible. It would appear, however, that Ryan currently has at least nine spots that are completely up in the air. Based on existing contractual obligations, projected salaries for arbitration-eligible players, and ownership’s contention that payroll should be slashed more than 10% to somewhere south of $100 million, the GM would appear to be heading in to this critical two-week period wearing some pretty tight financial handcuffs.

If we assume the Twins will carry 13 position players and 12 pitchers on their Opening Day roster, I count four open pitching spots and five open position spots to fill… with about $13 million with which to do so.

Mauer, Morneau, Casilla, Valencia, Carroll, Span, Nishioka and Doumit will collectively pull in just over $53 million, while leaving two starting OF spots and three bench spots yet to be filled.

The pitching corps looks like Pavano, Baker, Liriano, Blackburn, Slowey, Perkins, Duensing and Mijares. Those eight arms account for just over $32 million. Tack on the $2 million the Twins paid to buy out Joe Nathan’s 2012 option and you’ve got $34 million committed to pitching with four more spots to fill.

To my mind, this leave Terry Ryan with two current options:

  • He can spend the next two weeks making deals to shed enough of his existing contractual commitments to be able to afford to add, either through trade or free agency, an outfielder or two that can hit and a couple of pitchers who can miss bats; or
  • He can sit back and wait while those teams who expect to contend in 2012 fill out their rosters with the best players available, then sign a couple of leftovers to compete with the large group of “may or may not be ready for the Big Leagues” prospects that we all watched try to fill Twins uniforms toward the end of the 2011 season.

It’s a tough choice for the GM to make. It’s made even more dicey by the reality that the chances of the Twins being competitive, regardless of which path Ryan chooses, are going to be determined more by the health and productivity of half a dozen or so core players already wearing Twins uniforms than by the players who fill those final nine spots on the active roster.

The question we’d all like an answer to, I think, is, “what do the Twins really believe they’ll get out of Mauer, Morneau, Baker, Span, Liriano, etc.?”

So far, we’ve heard the Twins brass say they haven’t given up on fielding a competitive team in 2012. Of course, they’re still trying to sell season tickets, so they wouldn’t say anything else.

As is almost always the case, actions will speak much louder than words… and actions (or lack thereof) over the next two weeks may speak loudest of all.

– JC

Can Twins Learn From Gophers’ Challenges?

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I read with some interest this Star Tribune article concerning the University of Minnesota’s plight with regard to their athletic department funding and couldn’t help but wonder if it holds some lessons that the Twins might want to heed.

As I’m sure all of you who actually live in Minnesota are well aware, the Gophers opened their brand new TCF football stadium about a year before the Twins cut the ribbon on Target Field. You’re probably also well aware that big-time college athletic programs essentially live and die based on the revenues generated by their football programs. You can talk all you want about how great your basketball, hockey (either ice or field varieties), and wrestling programs are, but at most universities you’re lucky if any of those sports manages to just generate enough revenue to pay their own share of the bills. It’s football that pays the freight.

And as great as it is to get TV revenue and other income generated more because you happen to be affiliated with football factories like Michigan, Ohio State and, now, Nebraska, if you’re going to field competitive teams consistently, you need to have reliably high attendance at football games. That’s where the Gophers are staring at some pretty bleak realities for next season, when they’ll have exactly zero regional rivalry games on their home schedule.

The University is discovering that there’s a limited honeymoon period that comes with a new stadium. I made my first trip up to a game at TCF this fall when my Hawkeyes played there. It’s a beautiful facility. But if the Gophers don’t start doing some winning on a regular basis, and soon, it’s going to be a beautiful half-empty stadium on game days and that’s going to eventually have a negative effect on the rest of the Gopher athletic programs.

But the Twins are a different story, right? After all, the Gophers haven’t had a consistently competitive football team since Murray Warmath paced the sidelines while the Twins have been regular participants in MLB’s playoffs (the first round, anyway) for the better part of the past decade.

Many of you young whippersnappers aren’t old enough to remember the dark days of Twins baseball. Actually, there were several stretches of dark days. The last few years at Metropolitan Stadium were awfully bleak, as were most of the 1990s in the Dome. As hard as it is for us to imagine, given the crowds we’ve become accustomed to joining at Target Field the past two years, the fact is that Minnesota fans will not show up to watch bad sports teams. That doesn’t make them terribly unique, of course. Not many communities routinely sell out venues even when the local team stinks.

(I’m proud to say that Iowa’s Kinnick Stadium is one exception. We’ll just about fill that place every game day, even when the Hawkeyes are painfully difficult to watch. Then again, there really isn’t much else to do in these parts on the weekend and we’re all more than happy to have an excuse to party for a few hours with 70,000 of our closest friends.)

What’s my point? That’s a fair question.

An empty Target Field (photo: Minnesota Twins)

I guess my point is simply that the Twins shouldn’t assume that their beautiful ballpark guarantees butts filling the seats. They sold out nearly every game during a very bad 99-loss season largely because nobody expected a 99-loss season. Most of those tickets were sold when fans still believed they’d be watching a winner. Not many fans still believe that’s going to be the case in 2012.

The Twins seem to grasp this. They’re smart people and they know a bad team brings less attendance and less revenue. It’s their reaction, thus far, to this realization that troubles me.

They seem to be simply acknowledging the likelihood that fewer fans will be showing up and plan to downsize their payroll accordingly. They’ve given Terry Ryan the job of rebuilding the team and most fans, myself included, applaud that move. But if the plan is to start over… to rebuild through the draft and through acquiring other minor league talent through trades, while letting your best free agents walk away… then my applause is muted.

The Gophers have no choice but to sell “hope” as they rebuild their program from scratch. They can’t take steps to immediately field a competitive team by spending more money to get better football players. (Well, they COULD… but the NCAA tends to frown on that approach.)

But the Twins are not bound by NCAA rules, so here’s an idea… instead of running up the white flag and admitting defeat while you cut payroll, why not spend the money to become competitive again in 2012 and, in the process, keep fans filling those Target Field seats?

I know Jason Kubel isn’t the perfect fit for Target Field (though that’s the fault of design flaws, not Kubel, and those design flaws could be fixed easily if the Twins would just do it). I know Michael Cuddyer can’t hit righthanded pitching well. I know neither of them are gold glove outfielders. I know Jim Thome’s obvious limitations made it difficult to carry him on the roster. But those three players have accounted for a LOT of the Twins offense lately and the Twins seem more than happy to let them all go without showing any indication, so far, that they’ll replace them with anyone similar.

Then again, when you overpay for an aging middle infielder and a back-up catcher who has trouble catching, it doesn’t leave a lot of room to pay for guys who can actually contribute offense daily.

During the first few years after Baltimore’s Camden Yards ballpark was built, tickets were a tough thing to come by. I had friends there who were season ticket holders and I remember using that connection to get some pretty nice seats for my family on one trip there and again for the benefit of some friends who made the trip to Baltimore the following year. The stadium was sold out almost every game.

For the past several years, I’ve been able to walk up to the ticket window 10 minutes before game time and get very good seats whenever I’m in Baltimore during an Orioles home stand.

It can happen in Minnesota, too. In fact, it will happen in Minnesota… if ownership doesn’t make good on their promise of using the increased revenues to assure a competitive team occupies the new stadium and that, at the very least, they make good on their commitment to keep the best of their own free agents.

The offseason isn’t nearly over yet, so there’s still time for Terry Ryan to work his magic. But I encourage Twins fans not to let Ryan and his bosses off the hook. Don’t let them convince us to lower our expectations to fit their payroll. Don’t let them keep slashing until medocrity becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

– JC

Will New Major League CBA Screw the Twins?

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If you’re one of those people salivating over the extra high draft picks that the Twins were going to get in return for losing free agents Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel, that salivation might be a bit premature.

The good news is that reports coming out of Milwaukee, where MLB General Managers are meeting this week, indicate that the league and the players’ union are very close to agreement on a new Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA). That means baseball fans won’t be going through the nonsense that we saw last summer with the NFL and are continuing to see with the NBA.

The bad news is that the new agreement could cost the Twins at least one of those compensatory draft picks in next year’s amateur draft… and possibly all of them.

As has been well documented by now, the Twins have three members of 2011’s roster that are classified as either Type A or Type B free agents. Under the current CBA, that means that they would receive one or two compensatory draft picks if those players sign with another team, provided the Twins offer them arbitration.

Michael Cuddyer

Cuddyer and Matt Capps both fall in to the Type A category, which would bring the Twins both a supplemental round “sandwich” pick (so named because the supplemental round is conducted between the first and second rounds of the draft) as well as either the first or second round pick of the team that player ultimately signs with (depending on that team’s record in 2011).

Kubel is a Type B free agent, which means the Twins would get one of those supplemental “sandwich” picks, but the signing team would not forfeit any of their picks to the Twins.

The conventional wisdom is that the Twins will not offer arbitration to Matt Capps because he would certainly accept it and would end up being awarded a 2012 salary that’s probably at least double what he’s likely to get on the open market. That means the Twins will get no compensatory pick for Capps.

But the Twins certainly would be planning to offer arbitration to both Cuddyer and Kubel.

Media reports, including one from NY Post columnist Joel Sherman, indicate that the owners may have traded away much, if not all, of the free agent compensation system during CBA negotiations in order to rein in the escalating salaries of draft picks AND that the changes to the system may take effect this offseason.

Would owners really change the rules in the middle of the offseason? To get what they want in terms of restricting salaries for unproven draft picks… absolutely. A formal announcement of the terms of the agreement could come yet this week.

Sherman’s sources tell him that the compensation program for the top Type A free agents (such as the Mets’ Jose Reyes) would not be changed, but that Type B compensation would end effective with the current offseason. Other media reports indicate that the new agreement will reduce the percentage (currently 20%) of players at each position that constitute the Type A category, as well.

Jason Kubel

If these reports turn out to be accurate, it means the Twins: (a) would get no compensation for losing Jason Kubel; and (b) COULD end up getting no compensation for Michael Cuddyer, either, if his ranking by Elias falls below whatever the newly negotiated cut-off line is for Type A players in the American League 1B-DH-OF category.

If you were hoping the three supplemental picks were going to go a long way toward helping Terry Ryan boost the organization’s minor league talent level sooner, rather than later, this turn of events is not good news.

If you’re the Twins GM, would the lack of compensation for losing Kubel and Cuddyer make you more likely to consider re-signing either or both?

– JC

JC’s 2012 Offseason Twins Blueprint… Redux

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Let’s try this again, shall we?

First, let me say for the umpteenth time that I think the Twins still have done nothing to make their case to the public in support of their contention that the payroll must be slashed. Last week, Twins president Dave St. Peter Tweeted that they are projecting lower revenues in 2012. If he’s talking about lower attendance, then the only reason for anticipating such would be if they’re anticipating once again putting a non-competitive product on the field.

But since those of us who have already published “blueprints” did so in anticipation of payrolls at least remaining relatively level, it’s worth the exercise to see exactly what kind of roster can actually be assembled for $100 million.

For reference, you might want to glance back a week or two ago at my earlier effort, which anticipated roughly a $119 million payroll.

The gaps that need to be filled remain. Rotation help. Shortstop. Designated hitter. Bullpen. Back up catcher.

Ryan wasted no time before starting to put his stamp on the 2012 roster, signing Dodgers middle infielder Jamey Carroll for what’s reported to be $7 million over two years, plus an option year. Not many people are questioning whether Carroll is an upgrade over the shortstops the Twins trotted out there in 2011, but his age (38 before Opening Day) does leave some people wondering whether Ryan might be overpaying for Carroll. Only time will tell.

Now, as Ryan and his fellow GMs begin their annual meetings in Milwaukee, let’s get out our copies of the TwinsCentric 2012 Offseason GM Handbook again and take another whack at that roster.

We’ll start with the same 11 players from those currently on the Twins roster that I felt relatively certain would be on the Opening Day active roster. Here they are, along with their projected 2012 salaries (where estimates are needed, I am using the estimates the TwinsCentric guys used in their Handbook):

Joe Mauer (23 mil), Justin Morneau (14 mil), Carl Pavano (8.5 mil), Scott Baker (6.5 mil), Francisco Liriano (6 mil), Nick Blackburn (4.75 mil), Denard Span (3 mil), Alexi Casilla (2.5 mil), Glen Perkins (1.8 mil), Danny Valencia (500K), and Brian Duensing (500K). Now, add Carroll’s $3.5 million (though we don’t know for sure yet whether that’s an accurate number for 2012).

Also, the Twins will be on the hook to Tsuyoshi Nishioka for $3 million.

That adds up to $77.55 million, but instead of having almost $42.5 million to spend assuming a reasonable $120 million cap, we would have just short of $22.5 million of room under the new $100 million austerity program.

$22.5 million won’t do the job, folks, so we’re going to trade away some of the guys on the list above before Opening Day.

The rotation still needs a major overhaul, but we can forget about Mark Buehrle or even Edwin Jackson. In fact, here’s where I see Terry Ryan can practice a little “addition by subtraction”. Carl Pavano has one year left on his contract and it’s tough to see the Twins including him in their 2013 plans. The market for starting pitchers right now has more buyers than sellers and that means there very well may be teams willing to take on Pavano’s $8.5 million contract in return for something of value.

I’d still like to see Brian Duensing in a lefty set-up role in the bullpen and Nick Blackburn should not be in the rotation, either. But without Pavano, we now have three rotation spots to fill.

I still like the idea of taking a flyer on Rich Harden, despite his injury record. Let’s add Paul Maholm, as well, as our second left handed starter. Maholm is just 30 years old and, while his numbers weren’t great and he finished the season with shoulder issues, he’s the kind of “pitch to contact” thrower that the Twins are attracted to and in Target Field, he could thrive. Admittedly, we’re going to be hoping these guys can stay healthy, but they should both be available for reasonable 1-year deals, especially if they have to wait around for a while the market for starting pitching sorts itself out.

But what about the fifth starter?

We need to go cheap and there are two ways to do that, trade for someone cheap or promote from within. My Plan A would be to see what Atlanta would need for lefty Mike Minor. Knowing how Terry Ryan feels about trading away the kind of prospects the Braves would likely demand in return, we’ll need a Plan B. That would be Liam Hendriks. He’ll likely get his brains beat in a little bit, but what the hell… better it happens in 2012 than the following year when we’re going to want to be in position to be serious players in the AL Central.

The Twins will not be going in to Spring Training with a firmly established rotation, in any event. That being the case, they’d be just the sort of team that guys like Scott Kazmir and Brandon Webb might be looking to sign with in efforts to restart their careers. If you can get one of these guys on a minor league contract, why not give them an opportunity?

The bullpen: The Twins have no reason to pay anyone big money to be their closer. While I originally said I would take Joe Nathan back if he would agree to a 2 year deal for $7 million per year, I still suspect he’ll do better elsewhere and, frankly, I think Terry Ryan is less likely to pay him that kind of money.

By and large, I’ll stick with most of the bullpen options I suggested last time. Jonathan Broxton is still worth a shot, but you’re probably only going to be able to afford one of Todd Coffey or Matt Capps. I’d prefer Coffey, but wouldn’t mind keeping Capps at a reduced rate.

In July, Bill Smith was negotiating with the Nationals for young reliever Drew Storen. Denard Span was reportedly close to joining Washington’s outfield. Reportedly, the Nats still are in the market for a good defensive centerfielder, but Span’s concussion means his trade value is down. What about Ben Revere? Revere’s time with the Twins is probably going to be short-lived, with guys like Benson, Hicks, and others getting closer to The Show. It may take a bit more than Revere to get Storen, but how much more?

That makes my bullpen consist of Perkins, Broxton, Coffey (or Capps), Storen, Duensing, Blackburn and Burnett or perhaps Swarzak. Heck, you could even let Jose Mijares compete for that last spot if you really aren’t convinced he’s a lost cause.

I still think the Twins will probably trade Kevin Slowey, rather than pay him the $3.3 million he’s likely to get through arbitration. If they do, at least I have more confidence in Ryan to get some prospects with potential value than I had in Smith. If they don’t trade Slowey, I’m perfectly fine with letting him compete for a rotation spot in Spring Training.

Most of the position players I originally targeted are still quite affordable, but we’ll need to make a few tweaks.

DH: Derek Lee is still my guy. If reports are true about Morneau wanting to primarily DH, it’s even more important to get a guy like Lee on board. Without Cuddyer, his righthanded bat is even more important, too.

Middle Infield: In signing Carroll, Ryan spent more than twice what my original blueprint projected be spent on Ramon Santiago, but Ryan is telling the media that he may not be done looking at middle infielders. I wonder if we can fit the trio of Carroll, Santiago and Casilla in to the budget. Probably not. There should still be room for Nick Punto if he can be had for the $750K that TwinsCentric projected he’d get. If that’s not possible, maybe the Twins give Brian Dozier a chance to prove his Arizona Fall League performance wasn’t a fluke.

Up until the Carroll signing, I was kind of hoping Ryan might talk to the Braves about what it would take to get Martin Prado. From what I can tell, Prado is essentially a younger, cheaper, Michael Cuddyer. He’s a RH hitter who has played enough 1B, 2B, 3B and LF to be considered a legitimate option at each of those positions. He’s likely to get something north of $4 million through arbitration after a bit of a down offensive season (his .260/.302/.385 slash line is a solid 40 points lower than he’s historically put up in each statistical category). He’ll also hit a dozen or so home runs each year.

The Braves are reportedly shopping Prado and some of their pitching in an effort to shore up their outfield and if there’s one position that Ryan could deal from a bit of depth, it’s outfielders. I was steadfastly opposed to Bill Smith’s plan to trade Denard Span for relief pitching last summer, but for a more versatile player of a similar age and making similar money… that would at least be something to think about.

Back-up catcher: If Ryan can get Jose Molina for the $1.1 million that TwinsCentric projects, I still sign him and move on to other issues. There’s been some talk of a Slowey for Chris Iannetta trade and I’d be OK with that, but it would mean spending a couple million dollars more than what Molina projects to command.

The outfield: Trading Revere means we need to make at least one adjustment here and, while Terry Ryan and Jim Pohlad insist that a reduced payroll does not rule out affording to bring Michael Cuddyer back, it would be a challenge. Denard Span is still my centerfielder, but between Joe Benson and Rene Tosoni, one of them is going to have to prove he can play a Major League left field, while the other fills the 4th OF spot.

The Twins may not be able to afford Cuddyer, but they very well may be able to pay Jason Kubel enough to return, if he wants to. I don’t think Kubel is going to be nearly as in demand as Cuddyer, so it’s possible that the 3 year/$20 million contract that TwinsCentric projects will be enough to keep Kubel in Minnesota.

Here’s my revised final “blueprint”. Even if you count Joe Nathan’s $2 million “buy-out” against the 2012 payroll, I’m now spending just $101 million. (Some of the back up plans would result in costing a few bucks more, but not all that many more.)

That’s not likely going to be enough to field a contending ballclub, but if Mauer, Morneau, Span and others manage to stay healthy, they could surprise some folks through the first half of the season. If so, Ryan should be able to make a solid case to the Pohlads for spending a few extra bucks at mid-season. If the Twins have fallen back by that time, you should be able to get something in trade for some of the veterans, while you promote Parmelee and Dozier.- JC

PLAYER Salary ($ mil)
C Mauer 23
1B Morneau 14
2B Casilla 2.5*
3B Valencia 0.5
SS Carroll 3.5*
OF Span 3
OF Benson 0.5
OF Kubel 7*
DH Lee 5*
C J Molina 1.1*
4thOF Tosoni 0.5
UtIF Punto 0.75
Bench Plouffe/Hughes 0.5
SP-L Maholm 4*
SP-R Baker 6.5
SP-R Harden 3*
SP-L Minor/Hendriks .5
SP-L Liriano 6*
RP-R Broxton 4*
RP-R Coffey 2.1*
RP-L Perkins 1.8*
RP-R Storen .5
RP-R Blackburn 4.75
RP-L Duensing 0.5
RP-R Burnett/Swarzak 0.5
Nathan (option buy-out) 2
Nishioka (Rochester) 3
 *estimated salaries Total: $101,000,000

Twins Regime Change: Winners and Losers

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You may have heard the news… the Twins fired General Manager Bill Smith Monday and replaced him with his predecessor, Terry Ryan.

The news has been received well among most Twins fans. That’s not surprising. Most of us had lost much of whatever confidence we may have once had in Smith’s talent as a GM and what better guy to replace him with than the GM who gets most of the credit for molding the Twins in to a contender for most of the past decade? It does seem pretty convenient though, doesn’t it, that fans tend to overlook the fact that he also failed miserably at the GM job during his first half dozen or so years in the GM chair. Then again, he was barely over 40 years old when he first got the job and we all know that nobody under 50 knows a damn thing, anyway.

In any event, I’m certainly not disappointed to see Ryan back in charge. It was a good and necessary move by the Twins ownership and top management.

But make no mistake, this move means things are going to be done differently and there will be changes, both at Target Field and across the Twins organization, from the minor leagues to the international scouts and beyond. You might not think that someone with merely an “interim” GM title would have the clout to turn an organization on its head, but this is no ordinary “interim” GM. There is nothing “interim” about his level of authority.

All of this has me thinking a bit about who the potential winners and losers are likely to be when the dust settles on this little internal drama that’s playing out within the team’s front office.

WINNERS:

Twins prospect Aaron Hicks

Minor league prospects: If you’re a prospect in the Twins organization and were starting to get concerned that the Twins might go out on the open market and sign a free agent to a multiple-year contract that could essentially block your path to the Big Leagues, you’re a winner in this deal. It wasn’t all that likely to happen in the first place, but now, those chances are considerably smaller.

By association, our friend Seth Stohs over at SethSpeaks.net is a winner, too. Seth lives and breathes minor league baseball and nobody knows that stuff better. I doubt that Seth was ever too concerned that the Twins might become a “trade all your prospects for old guys” organization, but there’s no doubt in my mind that Terry Ryan will make improving the Twins minor league organization a high priority. That’s going to make Seth (and, eventually, the rest of us) very happy.

Ben Revere

Ben Revere: Terry Ryan made perfectly clear on Monday that the Twins need to improve their defense. There are questions about whether you’ll ever be a Major League hitter, but if Ryan truly believes that better defense will lead to better pitchers, I think you just got locked in to a starting spot in the 2012 Twins outfield.

Talented prospects buried in other organizations: Terry Ryan’s forte is identifying young talent, whether in his own organization or others, and bringing that talent to the Twins where they get a chance to prove themselves worthy of a shot at the big time. If your organization has been holding you back, there’s a decent chance Ryan already has a file on you that’s about an inch thick. Make sure your agent has Ryan’s number on speed dial.

Wayne Krivsky: It’s been quite a rollercoaster ride for you over the past week. A week ago, you were a frustrated, seldom listened to, advisor in the Mets front office. Then you got the good news… the Twins GM wanted you back in the organization in an advisory capacity. Then you got the bad news… the GM who wanted you back was being canned. Then you got more good news… the new interim GM is your old buddy Terry Ryan and now you’re close enough to sniff your next opportunity to become a Major League GM, once again. That is, if you’re the one person on the planet who actually believes that Terry Ryan is just the “interim” General Manager of the Twins.

LOSERS:

Twins Medics: You may have breathed a sigh of relief a while back when Bill Smith stated publicly that there would be no blood-letting among the organization’s doctors and trainers. Better get back to work on those resumes, folks.

Cuddyer, Nathan, Kubel (assuming any of them wanted to return to the Twins for 2012 and beyond): Bill Smith grew to genuinely like certain players and some feel that he allowed those feelings to affect his decisions. Terry Ryan isn’t heartless, but he is first and foremost an evaluator and appraiser of baseball talent. The next time he overpays for the declining years of a player who’s productivity level has arguably peaked will be the first time.

Mike Radcliff: A week ago, you were being mentioned as a possible GM candidate in Baltimore, then the Twins declined to allow the Birds to interview you. Now, your new boss is publicly talking about how you’ve been spread too thin and will have some of your responsibilities reassigned. Word is that you decided you weren’t interested in their job and the Twins “declined permission” for the Orioles to talk to you merely to allow them to save some face. If that’s the case, you may be regretting that decision. Now, instead of the organization’s highest ranking player-personnel guy and heir apparent to Bill Smith, your new boss is twice the baseball man you are and he’s bringing back his former right-hand man in Krivsky. Ouch.

Tsuyoshi Nishioka

Tsuyoshi Nishioka: There is absolutely no way Terry Ryan would have committed $15 million to acquire you a year ago and given that you embody everything that Ryan feels is wrong with the current roster, your already meager hopes of ever playing another inning of baseball for the Twins just became virtually non-existent. I don’t know where you’ll be playing ball in 2012, but it won’t be in the Twin Cities.

Trevor Plouffe: Did you hear what Ryan said about needing to improve the Twins defense? Yeah… he was talking about you, Trevor. You’re still inexpensive, so if you’ve been improving your glovework, you may get a shot at redemption in Ft. Myers, but you’d better demonstrate marked improvement or you’re going to be the “throw in” player in one of Ryan’s inevitable trades.

Anyone who pitched for the Twins in 2011: Glen Perkins might be the only pitcher on the roster who’s spot is relatively safe. The rest of you, either by virtue of your performance or your contract (or both… see: Blackburn, Nick, et al), are just as likely to be playing elsewhere in 2012 as playing on a Terry Ryan team.

Carl Pavano

Carl Pavano: I don’t believe for an instant that Ryan would have re-signed you to a two-year deal last offseason. If he can find someone willing to take on most of your remaining salary, I believe you’ll be wearing another uniform in 2012.

Bloggers who spent time assembling a 2012 “blueprint” (unless you didn’t really like your blueprint, in which case you’re in luck because now you can start over and do a new one): Back to the drawing board. Any of us that still want to spend $35 million on free agents need to get creative about figuring out how to cut $15 million from the existing commitments. Then again, we can pretty much rule out the Mark Buehrles and anyone else likely to get several million dollars for multiple years.

TOO EARLY TO TELL:

Ron Gardenhire

Ron Gardenhire: You didn’t see eye-to-eye with Smith on a number of personnel issues, so you’re probably feeling pretty good about things right now. But keep in mind that Terry Ryan just actively participated in the firing of one of his best friends. He says he’s going to assemble a team that he thinks should be competitive in 2012. If it isn’t, he’s not going to hesitate for a moment to send you packing, too.

Danny Valencia: On the one hand, Danny, you’re young and cheap and you hit the ball a little bit. On the other hand, your defense is not good and some reports indicate you’re not exactly the prototypical “Twins guy” in the clubhouse. That may not have been a big deal a week ago, but there is absolutely nobody in the organization that’s more of a believer in the “Twins Way” than Terry Ryan. If you thought Gardy was anal about that kind of thing, you’re REALLY gonna love the new sheriff in town.

Denard Span

Denard Span and Alexi Casilla: I’m honestly not sure what Terry will do with you two. You’re not gold-glovers in the field, but by comparison to almost everyone else the Twins have on defense, you almost look the part. I suspect he will start his purge elsewhere, but your salaries are getting to the point where Ryan starts to think he can find someone comparable for less money. Not to mention, you may be two of the few members of the current roster with actual trade value.

Fans: I stand by my previous statements that fans should not accept a slashed payroll without loud objection. We can hold out some hope that Ryan was just tossing out numbers during the press conference and, by the time spring rolls around, the payroll is pretty close to the 2011 levels. At any rate, if (and this is a very big “if”) Ryan can actually unload some dead weight and replace it with players who can actually… you know… play baseball, then fans may be pleasantly surprised with the results.

What are your thoughts? Who do you project to be the big “winners” and “losers” under the Terry Ryan Regime, Part Deux? Tell us what you think in the comments section.

–  JC