Category Archives: Offseason

Help Wanted: Professional Hitter

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The big news last night coming out of the Twins office was about the 19 invitations to the big league camp sent out to minor league players. I’m sure that’s a big deal to those players, but I just don’t get all that worked up over who gets invited and who doesn’t when it comes to guys who are highly unlikely to break camp with the Twins. I’m looking forward to seeing Kyle Gibson throw, though, because I think he’s this year’s Danny Valencia… the guy people generally expect to get his first real shot with the Twins before the summer is over. Anyway… on to today’s topic…

I mentioned in the Sunday Snippets post a few days ago that the topic of the Twins’ need for a legitimate hitting threat off the bench probably warranted a post of its own, as opposed to the lone paragraph (albeit a lengthy paragraph) devoted to it in that post. Well, here’s that dedicated post.

Amazingly, I’m not the only person dedicating thought and written words to the subject. A couple of the TwinsCentric bloggers (both Seth and Parker) posted thoughts related to what remains perhaps the final outstanding issue for the Twins’ front office to address before Spring Training gets underway. (This assumes the long-rumored deal with Carl Pavano actually is about to be formalized and the bullpen will just be a mad scramble to be sorted out in Ft. Myers.)

Hey, here’s an idea… Maybe if we all start a good old fashioned cheer, it will carry all the way to Bill Smith’s ears and he’ll be so impressed with the outcry that he’ll immediately go out and get the big bat we want! Ready?…

Give me a T!

Give me an H!

Give me an O! … Um, wait a minute… not so fast… I may want to buy a different vowel.

Jim Thome

As I wrote Sunday, I think most of us would just love to see Jim Thome get home run #600 with the Twins. He was an absolute joy to have in a Twins uniform last season, from the perspective of fans, team mates, manager… pretty much anyone except the Bitch Sox and their fans. He was signed for low money in anticipation of being used on a part-time basis off the bench and as an occasional DH. Due to Justin Morneau’s injury, he was called upon to play a much bigger role and he did so. He deserves our gratitude.

But if he were to return in 2011, the expectations would again be that he would play a part-time role, as a pinch hitter and occasional DH. While Thome has stated he agrees that he’s at his best when he gets regular rest, he and his agent also may be intent on converting his unexpected 2010 performance (arguably one of the best statistical seasons of his career) in to a much higher salary in 2011. It seems to me that Thome can’t have it both ways… a role where he’s not expected to DH regularly AND a contract that pays him as if he is playing every day.

Maybe he can wrangle that kind of deal out of another team. It sounds like the Rangers could be interested in having him play a limited role with them and they do have some of that money they had hoped to be paying Cliff Lee still burning a hole in their pocket. If so, I would thank Thome for his inspirational performance in a Twins uniform last year, wish him the best of luck sweating his (base)balls off in Arlington, and move on to other options.

Ah… but what options really remain out there?

A lot of people seem to be advocating that the Twins simply swap out Thome for the guy the Rangers used as their DH last season, Vlad Guerrero. He’s righthanded, after all, and that’s what the Twins really should be looking for in a bench hitter, especially with the White Sox seemingly determined to add more lefties to their pitching staff. (It’s kind of a compliment, don’t you think, that the Twins have achieved a status where division rivals are making roster moves specifically intended to help them beat the Twins head-to-head?)

I think Vlad would be a really bad idea. First, Guerrero is almost as limited defensively as Thome is. Anyone who watched the World Series knows that he has no business wearing a glove on a baseball field. In addition, while he produced better than most people expected last season (I thought he was washed up before the season started), he found that fountain of youth in a very hitter-friendly environment in Texas. Guerrero could, and did, launch home runs solely on the strength of his upper body and arms. But you need strong legs to go with the rest of your body if you expect to get balls out of Target Field. I don’t think Vlad can be expected to do that.

Fortunately, it sounds like he’s only interested in playing for teams that would be able/willing to give him a regular job and 500+ plate appearances… and a contract that anticipates such. The Twins have neither the PAs nor the money to meet his expectations.

Names like Troy Glaus and Jorge Cantu have been getting some support, lately, and I’d probably be willing to give either of them a look in Spring Training if the Twins decide their bench bat should be someone who could back up their infield and, in particular, Morneau over at 1B. But neither of those hitters exactly make opposing managers or pitchers nervous when they come to the plate any more.

Andruw Jones is reportedly generating some interest from the Yankees, who are also looking at righthanded bench options. Apparently, they like the work he did in Chicago last year and his career line against lefty pitchers (.261/.361/.501). But you have to remember much of that career line was accumulated during his first decade of play with the Braves. His overall split for the past four years is a tidy .212/.312/.412. Still, he did put up some strong numbers for the White Sox last season in a part time role. Strong enough that he’s looking for more money for 2011.

Back in November when many of us posted our off-season “blueprint“… our suggestions for what the Twins should try to accomplish over the winter… I mentioned in mine that, in the absence of re-signing Jim Thome, I’d suggest calling Marcus Thames. Thames played a bench role for the Yankees last season and he’s still being considered as a possibility to return to the Bronx if the Evil Empire doesn’t roll the dice on Jones, instead.

I’d be inclined to be satisfied with whichever of the two, Jones or Thames, is available after the Yankees decide which one to overpay. That said, I hope the Bombers sign Jones, because I like Thames a bit better for the Twins. Here are a few things Thames has going for him:

Marcus Thames (Photo: Ray Stubblebine/Reuters)

Thames will turn 34 years old during Spring Training… six years younger than Thome and the same age as Jones.

Thames hits righthanded, but in addition to hitting lefty pitchers well (.838 career OPS vs. LHPs far exceeding Glaus or Cantu), he’s also hit righties better than Jones the last few years and well enough that he could step in to a full-time role in the event of an injury.

He’s a dead-pull power hitter (67 of his 113 career HRs or 59% have been hit to straightaway LF… one part of Target Field that has not been a HR death trap).

Thames has hit more career HRs (15) against the Twins than any other team, with the White Sox (14) a close second. If nothing else, Twins pitchers (especially Scott Baker and Francisco Liriano, who have given up the most and third-most HRs to Thames of all pitchers he’s faced) should be glad to see him in their own dugout.

Outside of Comerica Park (his home during his Tiger years), Thames has hit more HRs at US Cellular Field than anywhere else.

(Yes, I know much of this is a factor of having played in the AL Central with the Tigers for most of his career, but isn’t that familiarity with the division a good thing in itself?)

He isn’t the fielder that Jones is (though Jones isn’t the defender he used to be, either) and Thames may not be any better than Delmon Young or Jason Kubel in the outfield if he’s pressed in to duty out there, in fact he may even be a bit worse. But, while it certainly wouldn’t be considered a good thing to have him play first base extensively during the year, at least he has played the position enough in the past that he could give Doc a few innings off at the back end of blow-out games.

Finally, and unfortunately most importantly, he’s already accustomed to part-time duty (he’s never had 400 PAs in a season and only reached 300 twice) and should be very, very affordable. His salary with the Yankees in 2010 was $900,000 and it likely wouldn’t take much over $1 million to sign him for 2011 either. Jones is likely to command somewhat more.

So that’s where I stand on the bench bat issue… my heart says bring back Jim Thome, but my head says bring in Marcus Thames.

– JC

Cupcakes and Free Agents

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While 1-11-11 may not technically qualify as an official “Cupcake Day“, we’re declaring it to be an Honorary Cupcake Day. Why? Because we don’t think anyone should have to wait another ten months for cupcakes!

Speaking of cupcakes… and having to wait… has anyone else noticed that the list of serviceable free agents who wouldn’t be considered “cupcakes” themselves has been reduced to a very short list?

At the beginning of the free agency period, MLBTradeRumors.com published their list of “Top 50 Free Agents” on the market. Thirty-nine of that Top 50 have found new teams… none of them with the Twins. Yesterday, MLBTR listed their “Top 10 Remaining Free Agents” (and noted Johnny Damon is the eleventh and final player on the list).

Today, I thought it might be interesting (even if rather pointless), to take a glance at the list to see how many might potentially still fit in the Twins’ plans for 2011.

  1. Rafael Soriano: Yeah right… dream on. The Twins won’t (and shouldn’t) spend big money to fill their remaining relief pitcher roles. Nathan and Capps already will account for about $20 million in salary (that’s almost half what the Padres plan to spend on their entire payroll this season!).
  2. Carl Pavano: We keep hearing the Twins and ‘Stache are “close” to a deal. I’m still not convinced it’s ideal to bring him back, but as I’ve said before, at this point, the only thing worse than re-signing Pavano might be NOT re-signing Pavano. Get it done, Mr. Smith.
  3. Jim Thome: Bill Smith says the Twins are still hoping to re-sign Thome, but the Rangers are also interested, now. Personally, it seems like both the Twins and Rangers should probably be looking for right-handed bats that could play some defense in a pinch, but my heart would still like to see Thome in a Twins uniform one more year. He’s not an ideal fit for the Twins, but he wasn’t last year either when he was signed. And the Twins DO need a bench bat… desperately.
  4. Vladimir Guerrero: Being righthanded makes Vlad a slightly better fit for the Twins than Thome, perhaps. But anyone who watched him try to play the outfield in the World Series last year knows that he wouldn’t really bring much, if anything, more to the defensive side of the equation than Thome would.
  5. Manny Ramirez: Fortunately, Manny is probably still looking for a full-time DH job and wouldn’t want to come to a situation where he’d be platooning with Jason Kubel. As much as it might be entertaining to see him with the Twins at times and he can still occasionally hit a ball very hard, let’s just say “no”, OK?
  6. Andy Pettite: The “Brett Favre” of Major League Baseball. Nobody knows if he’ll play in 2011 yet, but we know it won’t be with the Twins if he does.
  7. Brian Fuentes: He still gets linked to various teams every few days but is it possible his options are dwindling far enough that he’d re-sign with the Twins for an affordable amount? Probably not… but I can’t help but like the idea of having his left arm available late in games in addition to (or instead of?) Jose Mijares’. Fuentes wants an opportunity to close, but there really aren’t many teams left who are in a position to hand him that job. The best he may get is an opportunity to compete for a late-inning role in Spring Training… and the Twins can offer him that.
  8. Kevin Millwood: He’s thrown over 190 innings each of the past couple of years, so he could be considered Pavano-lite, but you really have to ask yourself if he’d be a real upgrade over any of the Twins’ existing starting pitchers. I personally don’t think so.
  9. Grant Balfour: Could Balfour return to the Twins? No, probably not. It’s not that he’d be a bad option to fill one of those open spots in the bullpen, but his Type A status means that, in addition to a pretty significant salary, he would cost the Twins their first round draft choice. No way the Twins would give that up for Balfour… nor should they.
  10. Scott Podsednik: Early in the post-season, I suggested the Twins find a way to upgrade their outfield defense. Podsednik might have been one option for doing so, though he wouldn’t have been at the top of my list of possibilities. For one thing, he’s lefthanded and the Twins already list a bit to the portside. That said, in a perfect world, I’d certainly take Pods over Jason Repko on my roster. Not gonna happen, though.
  11. Johnny Damon: This isn’t gonna happen either. Not only is Damon also a lefty, like Podsednik, but he wouldn’t even be an upgrade defensively in the outfield for the Twins… and that says a lot.

So, in the end, it comes down to this… with about $100 million already committed to the 2011 payroll, the Twins could have room to sign a couple of the remaining “Top 50” free agents, even if it’s just players from last year’s roster that would be returning. Of course, we don’t know for sure what the payroll target is and we don’t know whether the Twins are negotiating extensions with arbitration-eligible players (like Francisco Liriano or Delmon Young perhaps?) that would add to their 2011 total.

Absent the possible signing of any of these players, the Twins will need to fill out the rest of their roster by promoting from within (Seth Stohs suggests Luke Hughes, perhaps?) or looking to the bargain bin for… well… cupcakes. Maybe they could wring a productive year out of a Troy Glaus or Marcus Thames on the cheap.

Let’s hope Bill Smith isn’t really on vacation… in fact, maybe he’s already got Pavano, Thome and Fuentes signed and he’s just waiting to make a big splashy announcement right before TwinsFest! OK… I know… probably not. Ah well.

– JC

Sunday Snippets

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It’s Sunday afternoon, my Hawkeyes are getting drubbed by Purdue in mens’ hoops and even a Joe Posnanski in-game chat can’t get me enthused about watching the Chiefs and Ravens, so I thought this would be a good time to toss some things together and see if I could come up with enough material for a weekend post. (As if there’s any chance I won’t come up with about 1200 words without really trying!)

Unresolved Issues

The Twins really don’t have many things left to work out before Spring Training starts. This seems strange to say given that Bill Smith and his staff have made so few moves of any significance to this point. That said, there are a couple of issues yet to be addressed before camp opens up in Ft. Myers next month:

  1. The ‘Stache: If reports we’re reading are accurate, it’s just a matter of “when”, not “if”, Carl Pavano is officially signed to return to the Twins rotation in 2011. A while back, I noted that a lot of writers/bloggers who were not primarily focused on the Twins were predicting Pavano would be re-signed by the Twins, while almost all of the bloggers in Twinsville (myself included) considered it a foregone conclusion that he would NOT be returning. Guess now we see who knew what they were talking about. I’m still not able to figure out how bringing back the 2010 rotation improves your team, but maybe the thought is that Kyle Gibson will be ready to contribute by June and that’s their insurance policy in case someone is hurt or just not pitching well. He may free up one of the existing six starting pitchers to be dealt in a trade for more offense later, as well. I guess when it became clear that the Twins weren’t going to be able to trade for a legitimate top-of-the-rotation pitcher, it became a case of, “the only thing worse than re-signing Pavano would be not re-signing Pavano.” I just hope it works out.
  2. Bench bat: Assuming the Twins keep 12 pitchers to start the season, that leaves four roster spots for non-starting position players. Jason Repko, Drew Butera and Matt Tolbert are penciled in to three spots. It’s not hard to come up with players on the free agent market that would be upgrades over any/all of these three, but it would also be pointless. If anyone steals one of those spots, it will have to be an internal option that shows up in Spring Training and just wows the coaching staff. There isn’t a legitimate hitter among that group, however, so it makes it critical for the Twins to fill the fourth bench spot with a hitter who can… well… hit. Most of us expect that hitter to be Jim Thome and unless he’s really letting someone convince him he should demand over $5 million, that’s who the choice will likely be. I’m ok with that, I guess. As a fan, who wouldn’t welcome back a guy who performed the way he did last season? He’s a class act and I’d be proud to see him get HR #600 in a Twins uniform. Still… if you’re impartially looking at who the Twins really SHOULD fill that final roster spot with, you’d have to say it should be a right-handed hitter. Then again, you would have said the same thing last off-season and that didn’t stop the Twins from signing Thome then, either. If they do end up looking at right-handed options, I suspect Vlad Guerrero is too pricey, but guys like Troy Glaus and Marcus Thames may be reasonably priced alternatives. This topic probably warrants a full length post of its own and I may write one in a few days… or not.
  3. The bullpen: I wrote a whole post on this last week and nothing whatsoever has changed. Not much point in writing more now, other than to point out the obvious: there will be some interesting Spring Training battles for spots in the bullpen.

Hall of Fame Leftovers

As expected, the election of Bert Blyleven to the Hall of Fame was followed by a number of articles questioning his selection specifically and/or the selection process itself. A lot of them trotted out the, “how could his numbers get better over 14 years?” argument. I’m so tired of that line of BS. While men and women of good conscience can disagree over whether Bert and others like him had careers worthy of HoF induction, only idiots can fail to understand that it’s not a player’s numbers that can change over an extended period of time, but the perspectives of the voters and the context with which that player’s career is viewed that is worthy of re-examining. It’s why they require the five year waiting period and why they allow a player to stay on the ballot 15 years. Blyeleven’s election is proof that the system works the way it was intended. If Mike Schmidt and his buddies don’t think so, tough shit. His suggestion that a committee of current Hall members determine who gets in might be the funniest thing Schmidt’s ever said… though that isn’t saying much. He’s always been an idiot, in my humble opinion.

Which brings me to my inevitable Joe Posnanski plug. He reacted to suggestions that the HoF is not exclusive enough with this terrific post. (There’s also a post over there about his trip to see the Harry Potter World in Orlando’s Universal Studios theme park that’s a must-read if you’re a parent or were ever a kid yourself and ESPECIALLY if you’ve ever worked with kids!)

Spring (Training) Fever

Maybe it was when I put together the slideshow for this post last week or maybe it was the announcement that Twins’ single game tickets for games at Hammond Stadium in Ft. Myers were going on sale this past Saturday, but something motivated me to start looking seriously at potential dates for my annual trek to Spring Training in March. I figured out exactly the dates I wanted to go down there… March 13-20… and quickly discovered that airfares for those exact dates are outrageously expensive ($600-800 and up). Forget that.

Hammond Stadium, Ft. Myers

Maybe fares will come down before I actually get around to booking a flight, but I found a couple of alternatives that look pretty good. I can cut fares about in half by changing to 3/14-21 or by waiting and going down for about the final week of Spring Training, 3/20-28. Either option offers a nice blend of home and road games of drivable distances from Ft. Myers, as well as a day or two to hang out on the beach. It didn’t really help the below-zero wind chill factors feel any warmer here this weekend, but making some plans did remind me that winter won’t last forever. If you’re planning a trip to Spring Training, too, leave a comment or drop us an email (click Contact Us at the top of the page) and let us know when you’re planning on being down there.

Housekeeping items

This spring will also mark our first blogging anniversary here at Knucklballs. We hope you’ve enjoyed coming here even half as much as we’ve enjoyed this adventure. Personally, I wasn’t sure, at the onset, that this was something I’d really enjoy doing consistently, but it has turned out to be a lot of fun. That’s largely a result of the terrific reception we’ve gotten from our readers. Whether in comment sections of the posts, in our GameChats during the season, or through various opportunities to interact with other Twins bloggers, we’ve come to feel welcomed and accepted by an outstanding group of fellow Twins fans.

The upcoming anniversary also has us contemplating some changes here. We’re considering whether to remain with our current web hosting provider and may play with the format or “theme” of the blog a bit. I mention this for a couple of reasons. Since our traffic count is understandably lower in the off-season, now is a good time for us to play with things a bit. So if you come for a visit and what you find here looks a bit strange (or you don’t find anything at all… yikes!), don’t stop trying to visit us. We may just be in one of our “mad scientist” modes and one of our experiments got a bit out of control.

As always, if you’d like to share your thoughts in the comments section, feel free to do so… especially if there were particular features or regular topics that you want to make sure we continue or if you have ideas for things we could do to make your visits here more enjoyable.

OK, that’s all for now!

– JC

Bullpen: White Knights or Black Hole?

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If you’ve been reading anything about the Twins’ offseason, you may have heard this already… The Twins are going to need some new relief pitchers to fill out their bullpen. Shocking, I know.

Bullpen up in the air?

Truth is, the thing I find more surprising than anything else is that so many people seem to care so much about who’s going to make up the bullpen on Opening Day. I’m not ignorant of the fact that the Twins are losing half of the strong bullpen they finished the 2010 season with. Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier are already members of other teams, with Brian Fuentes, Jon Rauch, Randy Flores and Ron Mahay likely to follow.

So with all of the uncertainty about who will be keeping bullpen coach Rick Stelmaszek company this season, why am I surprised that so many people are devoting so much time to fretting over the makeup of the Twins’ relief corps? It’s simple really.

It matters to me that the Twins appear at least one top-of-the-rotation pitcher short at the moment. Going in to the season with the current five young starting pitchers, backed up only by unproven younger options, and relying on being able to trade for a top starter at mid season is a risky proposition. It may work out. It may not. But it matters and if they don’t have someone like Carl Pavano in the rotation that can consistently go deep in to games and give the bullpen a rest, then it matters even more.

It matters to me that the Twins are apparently comfortable with a defensive outfield that is, to be kind, less than swift. It baffles me a bit that the Twins looked at the way Target Field played in its inaugural season and recognized that they needed more contact hitters with speed on offense to take advantage of the field’s outfield gaps that tend to kill power but favor gap hitters… but didn’t also arrive at the conclusion that they should upgrade the defense with the addition of at least one more outfielder with the range to prevent opposing hitters from benefiting quite so readily from this particular stadium quirk.

It matters to me that the Twins will once again start the season with a new middle infield combination. I happen to be more of an optimist with regard to Alexi Casilla than many are and, while I’m on record as having preferred that the Twins hang on to JJ Hardy, I believe there’s been far more gnashing of teeth over his departure than is warranted. I suspect Tsuyoshi Nishioka will do just fine offensively and defensively… and is much more likely to bring stability to the middle infield for the next few seasons than either Hardy or Orlando Hudson would have. But regardless, yes, this new middle infield combination matters to me.

It WOULD matter to me if the Twins had nobody returning with a history of providing adequate performance at the back end of the bullpen. But while they won’t start the season with as many proven late inning options as they had at the end of 2010, the combination of Joe Nathan, Matt Capps and (to a somewhat lesser degree) Jose Mijares has demonstrated in the past that they are capable of getting a few outs toward the end of a ballgame. Even though Nathan’s healthy return to pre-injury status is not guaranteed and that, as is the case with Lexi, I’m a bigger fan of Matt Capps than most of Twinsville seems to be, I can’t honestly say I’d be a whole lot more comfortable with late inning options if any of the departing arms were still around. Some people act like Crain, Rauch, Guerrier and Fuentes never coughed up a game in their careers.

There are four open spots in the 2011 bullpen. All are long relief and middle inning positions. Who will fill those spots? I’m sorry… but I can do no better than turn to the wisdom of Bill Murray for a response. In his first leading role in the 1979 “classic” film, Meatballs, Murray captured my feelings perfectly when he said (repeatedly)… “It just doesn’t matter!… it just doesn’t matter!…”.

Will Glen Perkins or Alex Burnett or Jeff Manship or Rob Delaney be the long relief options… or will one of the current five starting pitchers get bumped to the pen if Pavano re-signs? Who cares? It just doesn’t matter! They’re going to be used when the starting pitcher gets shelled in the first three innings of a game the Twins are highly unlikely to come back and win anyway.

Who’s going to bridge the gap between a starting pitcher who labors through four or five innings and the set-up guys during a game that the offense is managing to keep close? Will it be Pat Neshek, Scott Diamond, Jim Hoey, or some free agent yet to be signed? I don’t know and it just doesn’t matter! Regardless of who fills those spots, I can guarantee you that sometimes they are going to pitch well and sometimes they won’t. Sometimes they will get lucky and sometimes they won’t. If they pitch poorly or are unlucky too often early in the season, one of the other candidates will be plugged in and get his shot. But, as Ed Thoma pointed out this week on his Baseball Outsider blog, it’s not like Gardy and Rick Anderson have never had to build a bullpen before.

Still… since so many people see the bullpen as an issue to get riled up about (and because I’m devoting 1,000 words or so to the topic here), I feel compelled to come up with at least one suggestion for the Twins to consider. So here it is.

Hiroyuki Kobayashi

Never heard of him? That’s OK.

Hiroyuki Kobayashi

Kobayashi is a Japanese free agent (which means he’s available to sign without having to go through the posting process), was a team mate of Nishioka’s with the Chiba Lotte Marines and does have some international experience as a member of the Japanese national team. After a few mediocre seasons as a starting pitcher under the Marines’ former manager, Bobby Valentine, Kobayashi was moved by Valentine’s replacement in to the closer role in 2010 and apparently performed well enough to help Chiba win the Japanese championship.

Reports are that he doesn’t throw extremely hard (fastball runs 89-91 mph) but mixes in several other pitches effectively enough to miss bats consistently (striking out around 8 hitters per 9 nine innings in his career).

Some people have lamented the Twins not being aggressive about signing Hideki Okajima or some other Japenese relief pitcher to perhaps minimize the cultural shock Nishioka is inevitably going to face next season. What better way to do that than to bring in one of his team mates?

Gotta be more important stuff, right?

That’s enough from me today. Now we can turn our attention to more important stuff… I’m not sure what that might be, but there has to be SOMETHING more important than finding out who gets the duty of carrying the backpack of goodies to the bullpen this season.

– JC

Spring Training is Just Around the Corner

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Happy New Year from Knuckleballs!

We all recognize that the Twins have work to do yet this off-season as the front office continues to mold a roster together and various players complete their rehab work as they continue efforts to overcome injuries of various degrees. Yet, as we toss out the 2010 calendars and put up those new 2011 versions, we’re reminded that baseball is coming!

Yes, the temperatures where most of us call home remain bone-chilling and it’s far too early to store away the snow shovels. But pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training NEXT MONTH so regardless of how cold it may feel outside, it’s time to get in the mood for baseball!

I’ve made the journey to Ft. Myers FL for the past few years to take in anywhere from a couple of days to a full week at the Twins’ Spring Training complex and I can’t recommend it strongly enough. I can’t speak for anyone else, but by March, there’s nothing quite like getting a jump on the warmer weather with a trip to the Florida Gulf Coast and when you can combine the warmer weather with getting a sneak peek at the upcoming year’s Twins roster, it just makes for a terrific trip.

But rather than try to describe what it’s like, I thought I’d dig in to my photobucket scrapbook and share this Spring Training Tour to make you feel warm all over… I hope you enjoy. – JC

A Dreary Day Gets Drearier

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For the second straight day, I woke to a blanket of fog outside my window. It’s slightly warmer today than yesterday, but that just means the drizzle isn’t freezing… yet.  Suffice to say, it isn’t exactly one of those days that make me want to sing, “Oh What a Beautiful Morning,” as I step outside (although I can’t honestly ever remember doing that anyway).

After making my way to the office and doing the normal “first thing” stuff… coffee, check email, coffee, check calendar, coffee… I took a glance at the morning Twins news and saw, on several sights, the statement issued by my boyhood hero, Harmon Killebrew:

“I was recently diagnosed with esophageal cancer.   With my wife, Nita, by my side, I have begun preparing for what is perhaps the most difficult battle of my life.   I am being treated by a team of medical professionals at the Mayo Clinic.  While my condition is very serious, I have confidence in my doctors and the medical staff and I anticipate a full recovery.

The Mayo Clinic is one of the largest and most experienced medical centers treating esophageal cancer in the world.  In the past decade, they have made tremendous advances in the treatment of this disease.  Nita and I feel blessed to have access to the best doctors and medical care.  

I thank everyone for their outpouring of prayers, compassion and concern.  Nita and I ask for privacy during this difficult journey.” 

Yeah, my dreary day just got a lot drearier. I have some personal family experience with fighting cancer (but what family doesn’t?) and with the Mayo clinic (though I understand Killebrew is being treated at the Arizona clinic, rather than at Rochester where the halls and waiting rooms of the clinic became all too familiar to my family). 

I’m sure we’ll all respect the Killebrews’ wish for privacy, but I couldn’t let the day pass without acknowledging that my own heartfelt thoughts and prayers are with Harmon and his family, as well as with the outstanding medical team working with him. 

Other Items 

I spent about half an hour last night as a guest on “Fanatic Jack” Steal’s podcast, along with Topper (from Curve for a Strike). Jack’s often a bit overly critical of the Twins for my tastes, both on his podcasts and in his blog… but that doesn’t mean he’s necessarily wrong (at least not all the time!). 

As you might imagine, much of our discussion centered on what the Twins have done (or, more accurately, failed to do) so far this off-season. You can download the podcast here, if you want to verify that I’m just as much of an idiot when I talk as I am when I write. 

We talked about Carl Pavano quite a bit. I’m honestly not sure which would bother me more… if the Twins re-sign Pavano or if they don’t re-sign him. This is a rare lose-lose decision for the Twins, I’m afraid. If they don’t sign him, it’s hard to figure out where they’re going to find another starting pitcher who can consistently pitch in to the 8th-9th inning to give their bullpen a rest… and with what looks like it will be a young, inexperienced bullpen, that could be important. On the other hand, it’s just hard to justify shelling out close to $10 million a year for one year, much less the multiple years that Pavano and his agent want, for a pitcher of Pavano’s age and medical history. That money could be used to bring back Jim Thome AND Brian Fuentes, combined. 

I know it’s a long shot, but I’m hoping Fuentes’ options have been reduced to the point where returning to the Twins on a one year deal with perhaps some vesting/performance provisions might start to sound good to him. I know he wanted a deal to close for someone, but there aren’t a lot of those openings still out there… especially among contenders… and with the Twins, at least he would have a fair opportunity to close some games against teams sending up lefties in the 9th inning. It’s clear to me that the Red Sox are going to be the team the Twins will have to go through to get to the World Series in 2011 and with the lefty hitters they’re going to have, I’d sure like to have a strong LH arm at the back end of my bullpen. Wouldn’t hurt to have him around when Adam Dunn comes to bat late in White Sox games either.

As for Pavano, it sure looks like he and his agent may be overplaying their hand. If the Nationals or Twins decide to move in another direction, he’s screwed. He’ll be lucky to get a deal matching what he got from the Twins last year from whichever remains the last team interested in him. Maybe the decision to reject the Twins’ offer of arbitration wasn’t such a no-brainer after all. Frankly, if I were the Twins, I wouldn’t offer more than a one year deal with maybe some kind of performance-based vesting option for 2012… and I’m not sure I’d even do that if it means I don’t have the money to beef up my bullpen and find a bench hitter who won’t induce giggles from opposing pitchers any time he pinch hits.

That’s enough dreariness for today. I’m getting out of the office and going to see the new Harry Potter movie this afternoon… maybe that will brighten my outlook!

–  JC

If The Season Started Today…

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There have been a lot of things written and said around Twinsville lately concerning the comparative off-season activities of the Twins and their AL Central competitors. Those discussions generally are boiled down to this conclusion: “If the season started today, the Twins would be picked to finish third in their division behind the White Sox and Tigers.”

I’m not going to sit here and loudly proclaim that such an opinion is wrong, but I’m also not going to join the chorus quite yet.

Before I make my contrarian points, let’s be clear about a couple of things. First, I’m not impressed with the way the Twins have molded their 2011 roster, so far. I wanted to see a legitimate top-of-the-rotation pitcher added and someone with better defense and speed added to the outfield (even if it meant trading someone like Jason Kubel). Obviously, the Twins were no more impressed with my suggestions than I’ve been with their moves, since they’ve done nothing whatsoever with regard to improving their rotation and have publicly stated that their plan is to bring back last season’s outfield group (though this would include Michael Cuddyer getting most of the playing time in RF, rather than Kubel).

Another thing I would make clear is that I agree that the Tigers and White Sox have been making moves that could improve those teams significantly. Picking up Victor Martinez will improve the Tigers and adding Adam Dunn should be a significant offensive upgrade for the Sox. I’m giving them less credit for their bullpen additions of Joaquin Benoit and Jesse Crain, respectively. If “closers” are significantly overvalued on the market and by many fans and analysts, then middle relievers who cash in with three-year deals for eight-figure guarantees are hitting the lottery.

In fact, it sounds like Crain is going to get his shot as a closer for the White Sox. Jesse did a very nice job for the Twins last season (after the first couple of months anyway), but is there anyone around here who’s watched Crain pitch for the past few years that would be comfortable with him as your closer? Not me. If the Sox fans dreaded seeing Bobby Jenks take the mound to protect small leads in the ninth inning, then they’re really in for some Maalox moments with Jesse. At least that’s my gut feeling. (Get it? “gut feeling”… Maalox… come on, this is my best Monday stuff here!)

So if I’m unimpressed with the Twins’ moves, so far, and I agree with the masses who think the Tigers and White Sox have improved themselves, why am I not jumping aboard the “Twins will fall behind the White Sox and Tigers” bandwagon?

Because even as currently constituted, the Twins have not merely swapped out JJ Hardy and Orlando Hudson for Tsuyoshi Nishioka and Alexi Casilla (which I do believe has a chance to reflect a more significant upgrade over the tandem they’re replacing than most others seem to believe will be the case). They’ve also added Justin Morneau and Joe Nathan to their active roster.

I don’t expect Nathan to walk in to Spring Training and immediately be the closer he was in 2009, but I do believe that he and Matt Capps comprise as solid a set-up/closer duo as any other team in the AL Central is likely to have (granted, I’m bigger on Capps’ potential  than most people are). In addition, as they tout the White Sox, I’ve read so many people talking about Chicago not only adding Dunn, but also re-signing Paul Konerko. That’s fair… but only if you ALSO mention the Twins getting their All Star 1B back, as well. Is it possible that Nathan or Morneau (or both) will fail to return to their prior levels of productivity? Of course. But I have to say I like Morneau’s chances of having a big season as much as, if not better than, Konerko’s.

But the biggest reason I’m not ready to hand over the Division to the Kittens and BitchSox is that, obviously, the Twins aren’t finished forming their roster yet. I still want more at the top of the rotation. Ideally, I’d prefer they make a deal for a Wandy Rodriguez-type, if they can find a willing trade partner. Failing that, bringing back Carl Pavano wouldn’t be a terrible idea, either. The Twins are likely to be less experienced (and thus, less reliable) with their middle inning bullpen options, so having a guy that has been pitching in to the 7th or 8th inning with some regularity wouldn’t be a bad idea.

I also still expect to see Jim Thome back on the Twins bench and, hopefully, playing the role he was intended to play last season before injuries forced him in to the regular DH spot. If it were me, I’d also try to find a spot for someone like Marcus Thames on my bench as well… though that seems unlikely since the Twins re-signed Jason Repko.

The way the chips have fallen, I also won’t be a bit surprised to see Nick Punto return at a reduced pay rate. The dangerous side to that prospect, of course, is that Ron Gardenhire may yank Nishioka or Casilla the first time one of them irritates him (which, let’s face it, isn’t likely to take long), giving him the excuse to insert Nicky in to the line-up as a regular again.

Let’s also not forget that the Tigers and White Sox aren’t necessarily finished making deals yet. While some people suspect the Tigers may still have some payroll flexibility, the White Sox seem to be in just the opposite condition. The price tags on Dunn, Konerko and Crain have already pushed their payroll above what many people speculated they would be prepared to spend. As a result, there’s still talk of them perhaps trading away someone like Edwin Jackson in a salary dump. Without Jackson and with Jake Peavy not available, at least to start the season, that Sox rotation doesn’t look nearly as formidable.

Spring Training is now less than two months away from getting started and while the Twins’ front office still has a lot of work to do before pitchers and catchers report, I think it’s premature to write off 2011 and just hand the Division Championship to the White Sox or Tigers.

In fact, I think the only thing we can safely say for sure is:

If the season started today… fans and players alike would be freezing their butts off at Target Field! –  JC

Picure: MLB/Minnesota Twins

ようこそ (Welcome) Tsuyoshi Nishioka!

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NOTE: A funny thing happened when we posted our article about the prospect of the Twins replacing JJ Hardy with Tsuyoshi Nishioka a couple of weeks ago. Our sitemeter started recording “hits” from Japan. So with this, our official “Welcome” post for the newest Minnesota Twin, we thought we’d give one of those fancy online Translator programs a try. We only hope we don’t end up accidentally starting some kind of international incident.

注: する面白いことは私たちの記事、双子の見通しについて JJ ハーディ剛西岡と交換数週間前投稿起こった。私たちの sitemeter から日本」のヒットを記録開始。これにより、最新のミネソタ州ツインにようこそ私たち公式を投稿するので、私たち派手なオンライン翻訳プログラムのいずれかを試してみてくださいと思った。私たちはない終了何らかの国際的な事件を誤って開始希望だけ。
Tsuyoshi Nishioka and wife Naoko

It’s official! Tsuyoshi Nishioka is a Minnesota Twin. The Twins have come to an agreement on a contract with the Japanese infielder which will reportedly pay Nishioka $9 million over the next three seasons. When you factor in the posting bid price that the Twins paid to Nishioka’s NBP team, the Chiba Lotte Marines, the total cost to the Twins will be somewhere close to $15 million over the next three years.

公式です ！西岡剛ミネソタ州ツインです。ツインズ合意する契約上の報道によれば西岡 900万ドル、次の 3 つの季節を支払うことになるが、日本の内野手が出ています。西岡の NBP チーム、千葉ロッテマリーンズの双子を支払った転記の入札価格を考慮すると、コスト、双生児にはどこか 1500万ドル近くに、今後 3 年間になります。

That’s a fair price. It’s certainly not an amount of money that will break the bank or keep the Twins from also signing other players. But yet, it’s fair to ask, “What should the Twins expect for their money?” For such a seemingly simple question, there really can be nothing but a complicated answer.

公正な価格です。それは確か、銀行を破るか、また他のプレイヤーの署名から、双子を維持する金額ではありません。まだ、依頼するには、「何、双子のお金を期待すべきですか？」公正なのですがこのような一見単純な質問には、本当にあることは何も複雑な答えです。

The Twins are hopeful that Nishioka will provide reliable defense at one of the middle infielder positions and, while he’s not expected to hit for much power, hopes are that he’ll get on base well enough to fill the number two spot in the batting order and provide more speed than the team got out of that spot last season. Those are not unreasonable expectations and if the Twins had signed some kind of American free agent infielder with similar skill sets, this is where we could probably end the discussion of expectations. But make no mistake, this is not just another baseball player changing teams.

双 子は西岡中央内野手位置のいずれかで信頼性の高い防衛を提供しては彼は多くの電力をヒットするがありませんが、期待している彼は基本の井戸に番号 2 つのスポットで打順を記入し、チーム、スポットの最後のシーズンがよりもより多くの処理速度を向上するのに十分な買ってあげることは期待しています。不当な期待いないあり、ツインズ何らかのアメリカの自由契約内野手と同様のスキルと締結した場合は、これは、議論の期待おそらくを終了できませんでした。しかし、間違いを犯す、チームの変更は別の野球選手ではありません。

I don’t know if the Twins organization thought through what it would mean to sign the defending Nippon Baseball Pacific League batting champion and bring him to Minnesota, but I hope everyone is ready for what happens next.

私はリーグ チャンピオンのバッティング防衛、日本野球太平洋に署名し、彼はミネソタ州には、持参するどういうことをツインズ組織を考えたが、私は誰もが次のことを準備がほしいかどうかは知らない。

Ron Gardenhire may be looking for someone with speed to fill an infield spot. Bill Smith may be looking for a young player he could sign to a reasonable multiple year salary. The Minnesota news media may be happy to have something new to write about concerning the Twins, who’s roster of key contributors has been comprised of rather bland personalities for a while now. Fans of the “baseball purist” variety are largely just anxious to see some indication that the Twins organization recognizes the team needs to make improvments. The casual fans probably won’t even figure out that the Twins have a new infielder until March when they start paying attention again. Each of these groups may or may not get what they’re hoping for. But I have a feeling we’re all going to get much, much more.

ロン Gardenhire 速度、内野スポットを埋めるために誰かを探している場合があります。ビル ・ スミスが探している若い選手の彼は、合理的に複数年の給与署名できませんでした。ミネソタ ・ ニュース ・ メディア何か新しい、双生児に関するについて書くことに満足していることがあります人の主要な貢献者の名簿されているのではなく当たり障りのない性格をしばらく今で構成します。「野球純粋主義者」さまざまのファン大部分はツインズ組織、チームを認識することを示す必要がある improvments を確認することを切望います。カジュアルなファンおそらくも、双子の 3 月までには再び注目起動時新しい内野手があることが理解されません。これらのグループと彼らが何を期待しているを得ることができません。私たちすべては、多くの詳細を取得するつもりを感じています。

I’m not sure any of us really are prepared for what comes next.

私たちは本当に次なるの準備ができていることがよく分かりません。

I’ve been trying to think of an analogy but I really can’t come up with one. I don’t think we’ve seen anything like what’s coming our way. Ever. We’re talking about a Japanese iconic rock star in cleats coming soon to a baseball field… and a clubhouse… near you!

私の類推と思うしようとしているが、私は本当に片手を来ることができません。私たち私たちのように来ているもののように何も見たことがあるとは思わない。これまで。私たちは日本の象徴の岩について星クリートは野球場を… と、クラブハウスの… あなたの近くにもうすぐに話をしている ！

This wouldn’t be such a big deal if Nishioka had signed with any number of other Major League teams. He’d be just another target of the paparazzi in New York or Boston or even Los Angeles. Seattle has already been down this road before with Ichiro, so another talented Japanese import wouldn’t really change that organization’s profile much.

西岡を任意の数の他のメジャーリーグのチームと締結した場合はこのような大げさではないです。彼は、ボストン、ニューヨークやロサンゼルスでもパパラッチは別のターゲットとなります。別の才能のある日本の輸入は本当にその組織のプロファイルに変更はないのでシアトルは既にこの道の前に一郎とされています。

But the Minnesota Twins? This is a team owned by a family of bankers, run by essentially the same group of businessmen for decades, and managed on the field by “old school” managers and coaches since, well, forever. And this is a group of players that seem to think breaking the seal on a new deck of cards constitutes “clubhouse excitement.” Man, are they in for a surprise.

ミネソタ ・ ツインズですか？これは、銀行の家族が所有、ビジネスマンの同じグループでは、基本的に数十年間は、実行され、フィールドに昔の学校のマネージャーやコーチ以来、まあ、永遠に管理チームです。これは、シール、新しいカードのデッキで破壊クラブハウスの興奮構成を考えているようだ選手のグループです。男は、彼らには驚きです。

All I can say is, “it’s about time!”

すべて私に言えることは、「についての時間です ！」

I don’t know what to expect from the Twins in 2011. There are too many question marks. Will Joe Nathan come back healthy enough to contribute at the back end of the bullpen? Will Justin Morneau return from his concussion and reestablish himself among the best hitters in the Major Leagues? Will Joe Mauer perform like a player worth $23 million a year instead of the mere mortal he proved himself to be this season? Will the rotation hold up? I’m anxious to see how all that works out.

私は、双生児から 2011 年に期待するのか分からない。あまりにも多くの疑問符があります。ジョー ネイサンは、ブルペンのバックエンドでの貢献を十分に良好になるでしょうか。ジャスティン Morneau 彼から脳震盪を返すされ自身メジャー リーグの中で最高の打者を再設定ですか？ジョー マウアー、プレーヤーは、単なるのではなく年間 300万ドル価値がのように実行する死を免れない彼自身このシーズンに証明ですか？回転が保持されますか。確認することが心配は、すべての作品をどのようにします。

But not nearly as anxious as I am to see how everyone directly or indirectly involved with the Twins… from fans to players to media… adjusts to the Japanese tsunami that’s about to wash over the organization. Personally, I think this team has needed some kind of spark… a shot in the arm… or a kick in the ass… something… for a long time. All of this “even keel” stuff is boring me and I think it’s boring a lot of other fans, too. The Twins opened up a brand new stadium last year and I managed to attend something close to a dozen games during the course of the season. I saw them play good teams and bad… from the Yankees and Rangers to the Orioles. Fans showed up in record numbers and clearly had a good time… but I never really felt the crowd was EXCITED by what they were seeing on the field.

ほどと不安としてどのよう直接または間接的にファンから… ツインズ… メディア プレーヤーに関係者全員を参照してください私については、日本の津波に調整されますが、組織で洗浄します。個人的には、このチームがいくつか必要があると思うのような… ショットで arm…. または、キック、お尻を… の引き金と長い時間を… 何か。すべての「平衡」ものです私あまりにも多くの他のファンの退屈なですと思う退屈。ブランドの新しいスタジアムを昨年、双子を開くし、私は、1 ダースのゲームに近いもの、シーズン中に出席することができた。私は遊びの良いチームと、ヤンキースとレンジャーズから… 悪い、オリオールズを見た。ファンのレコード番号に現われたし、はっきり、… 楽しかったが私は決して実際に群衆何彼らにフィールドを見ていたが興奮していた感じ。

I don’t know if a change among of middle infielders is enough to get the Twins to the World Series. It seems unlikely. But I think it’s time for us to get past the debating about whether the Twins were right or wrong to trade away JJ Hardy. The past is past. It’s time to look forward and if this Japanese comet that’s about to land among us can bring some fun and excitement to Target Field in 2011 and beyond, then I can’t wait to be there when it happens!

中央 infielders の間で変更を十分にワールドシリーズ、双子を取得するかどうか分からない。可能性は低いようです。しかし、ツインズ右または間違って離れ JJ 丈夫な取引をしたかどうかについて議論過去を取得するための時間だと思います。過去は過去のことです。時間は楽しみにして、この日本の彗星に関することなら土地私たちの間でいくつかの楽しさと興奮 Target フィールドに 2011 年内外させることができ、私はそれが起こるときがあるが待ちきれない ！

Let’s all get on board and start practicing now…

すべて基板上に取得させて今練習を開始しています

SUUUUUUUUUU YOOOOOOOOOOO SHEEEEEEEEEEEEE!

– JC

Smith & Gardy: The New Goose & Maverick?

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“I feel the need… the need for SPEED!”

Some of you are probably too young to remember this line from Tom Cruise and Anthony Edwards in “Top Gun” (is it really possible that movie is 25 years old?). The two actors portrayed Naval Aviator Pete “Maverick” Mitchell and his backseat RIO, “Goose” (20 bonus Knuckleballs points if you can tell us Goose’s character’s real name without looking it up… I couldn’t) as they piloted their F14A Tomcat from the USS Enterprise (that’s the aircraft carrier, not the starship) to Top Gun training at Miramar Naval Air Station.

Maverick, you see, was one helluva pilot (sorry… naval aviator) and there’s no doubt that if he would just “do it right”, he could be the best.

But Maverick’s personality was such that he had to go faster than anyone else. Goose would try to maintain some level of control and impress on his friend that being smart about things is important, too. In the end, however, he always went along with Maverick’s reckless “winning means doing it faster than anyone else, no matter what” approach. Goose knew better, but dangit, Maverick was such a lovable guy that in the end, all he could do is shake his head and go along for the ride.

The Twins never showed interest in bring back Orlando Hudson and now, with the addition of Japanese infielder Tsuyoshi Nishioka and subsequent trade of JJ Hardy to Baltimore on the last day of MLB’s Winter Meetings, Twins General Manager Bill Smith officially bought in to Manager Ron Gardenhire’s desire to begin bringing the running game back in to the Twins’ offensive game plan.

Does Bill Smith really believe in this change in approach? Did he try to point out to Gardy that his team scored more runs than anyone else in the AL Central Division, even if Target Field proved more difficult than expected to hit a baseball out of?

It doesn’t really matter, of course, whether Smith knows the important thing is to outscore your opponents and win games, because dangit, Gardy is such a lovable guy and you know that, in the end, all Smith can do is shake his head and go get the kind of players Gardy wants.

A year ago… and really all throughout the 2010 season… a lot of us were having some fun drawing comparisons between the Twins and White Sox. Years earlier, Sox manager Ozzie Guillen had given the Twins a cute nickname… the piranhas (or was it “piranyas”?)… that portrayed the Twins as a scrappy group of speedy little guys with limited real athletic ability that consistently beat Ozzie’s more talented teams by nibbling them to death. By 2010, the roles had reversed and Ozzie had apparently convinced Sox GM Kenny Williams that he needed more versatile ballplayers who would battle their tales off, while Bill Smith went out and stocked the Twins with more professional hitters.

The beefed up Twins went something like 99-1 against the Sox team that Ozzie and Kenny had built in the Twins’ former image. As a result, this off-season, I’m not sure Williams has even asked Ozzie what he “wants”. He went out and bought the ultimate power hitter, Adam Dunn, in addition to re-signing Paul Konerko. (Alas, Mark Kotsay’s days DHing for the BitchSox are over… dammit.)

I’m concerned that Gardy got bored last year. Sure, the Twins scored a lot of runs and would almost certainly have scored even more if Justin Morneau hand’t been shelved by a concussion half way through the season. But something just didn’t feel right to Gardy. There were times, no doubt, when his instincts were to steal, bunt, hit & run… all those things the piranhas did… but there wasn’t a piranha in sight. Instead he had Orlando Hudson and Jim Thome and JJ Hardy out there clogging up the basepaths.

So what if the runs still scored (perhaps because the Twins weren’t needlessly giving up outs by bunting and getting caught stealing)? It just wasn’t the kind of baseball team Gardy enjoyed managing. It was like taking Maverick out of his F14A and putting him in a “clunky” B1 bomber. Sure he might eventually inflict more damage on the enemy, but without the speed and maneuverability of his Tomcat, it’s just not as much fun for the guy at the controls.

Look, I get that Target Field isn’t built for marginal power hitters… guys that rely on balls that barely clear fences to generate their HR numbers. But Bill Smith should remember that last season’s strategy of bringing in better offensive players, even if they weren’t the fastest guys in the game, resulted in the Twins winning 94 games.

And before Bill Smith completely buys in to Gardy’s dream of bringing us Piranhas II – The Sequel, he might also keep one more thing in mind…

While “Top Gun” ended with LT Mitchell all smiles, going along with Maverick’s “need for speed” didn’t turn out so well for Goose.

– JC

(Over)reactions to JJ Hardy Trade

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If you aren’t one of those people who stay up in to the wee hours of the morning during MLB’s Winter Meetings, you may have awoken to the news that some time after midnight that the Twins and Orioles had agreed to a trade that sends JJ Hardy and Brendan Harris to Baltimore in return for two minor league relief pitchers, Brett Jacobson and Jim Hoey.

It appears that the two pitchers have good velocity and could contribute to the Twins sooner, rather than later and I’m sure we’ll get more details on the trade during the course of the day Thursday. Still, I’m a bit disappointed in the return obtained for a very solid Major League shortstop. Of course, eliminating both Hardy’s estimated $6-7 million salary and the $1.75 million owed to Harris in 2011 does free up payroll room to be used elsewhere.

But, while I hoped to either keep Hardy around or get more in return for him, I’m not sure what surprises me more… that the Twins would trade JJ Hardy for no more than they are getting in return from the Orioles or that Twins fans/bloggers are so universally up in arms over the trade.The large and diverse Twins blogging community, by and large, has trouble agreeing on anything. No matter what moves Bill Smith makes, some people will like it, some people won’t like it, and some people (you know who you are) will think it’s the dumbest move ever made by any MLB front office since the last move made by the Twins… because every move made by the Twins is, by definition, the worst move made by any team, ever.

But long before this trade was finalized, the blogs, podcasts and Tweets were lighting up with almost unanimous criticism of the deal. There was some acknowledgment that the limited return the Rays got for Jason Bartlett on Wednesday indicated that Twins fans should be prepared to see similar limited returns for Hardy, but that hasn’t kept the complaints from pouring through cyberspace in the first hour or so following the announcement. That’s pretty incredible, when you think about it. How bad must a deal be to get all of us to agree that it’s bad?!

Hardy

The assumption seems to be that the Twins simply needed to dump Hardy’s estimated salary to make room for Japanese infielder Tsuyoshi Nishioka… that having scored too many runs last year, Gardy longed to return to the “piranha”  game that he enjoys managing. I’m on record of being skeptical about the prospect of turning over a middle infield position to Nishioka before he’s taken a single ground ball in Spring Training and dispensing Hardy to Camden Yards certainly is risky, to me.

That said, we’re talking about JJ Hardy here, not Joe Mauer or Justin Morneau. I get that he’s developed a certain loyal fan base (largely among the womenfolk, for some reason), but let’s keep in mind this is a guy who the Brewers demoted to the minor leagues just 18 months ago and traded for Carlos Gomez just over a year ago. (Gomez is now available on the trade market again, by the way.)

If we want to take an honest look at why the Twins moved Hardy just a year after trading for him, we should take a step back and recall why they traded for him in the first place. A year ago, the Twins were intent on adding offense, even if it meant sacrificing some defense. Jim Thome and Orlando Hudson were brought in for their bats. They traded away their best defensive outfielder for a shortstop that they hoped might hit a few home runs. And the Twins, at that point, couldn’t really know how their new home, Target Field, would play.

Now fast-forward a year and put yourself in the Twins post-season organizational meetings. You know, now, that your new shortstop essentially has warning track power in Target Field (like pretty much everyone else). He’s not fast. He’s not quick. He’s an above average defensive shortstop in much the same way Cal Ripken was an above average shortstop. He positions himself very well. He just seems to get to the ball very well.

With the general dearth of quality middle infielders on the open market this winter, now might have been the Twins’ best opportunity to get anything of value for Hardy. While it may be difficult to make that argument with a straight face, given the return received from the Orioles, what we don’t know today is what Hardy’s performance level will be in 2011.

In the grand scheme of things, however, the Twins’ fortunes in 2011 aren’t likely to be significantly determined by having Nishioka and Casilla in the middle of the infield instead of one of those two paired with Hardy. And if one of them gets hurt or underperforms, it’s not like the Twins don’t have a couple of hundred middle infielders in their system that could step in.

I’ve felt from the beginning that the key to the Twins improving their roster for 2011 is improving the top of their starting rotation. Other than the fact that devoting so much of their time to the Nishioka/Hardy issue has kept them from focusing their attention on improving their rotation, I just can’t get all that worked up over this trade. In fact, part of me feels like anything disliked so much by so many of us must have a pretty good shot at turning out well!

I like JJ Hardy and I even like the Orioles. I hope he does well there.

And I hope the Twins and their scouts are right about Nishioka, not to mention Jacobson and Hoey.

–  JC

P.S. It appears that I can pretty much forget all about my off-season “blueprint”. Not only is it virtually impossible that the Twins would be able to get my preferred “ace”, Zack Greinke, but now my suggestion for a flyer in the outfield is off the table as well. Melky Cabrera has reportedly agreed to terms with Greinke’s Royals. Ah well.