Offseason – Page 24 – Knuckleballs

To ‘Stache Or Not To ‘Stache: The Carl Pavano Issue

Posted on 11 November, 2010 by Jim Crikket

I’ve noticed something curious about the various “predictions” concerning the Twins offseason roster decisions. There’s a real disconnect somewhere on the topic of what the Twins should do about Carl Pavano.

When I posted my proposed “Twins blueprint” for 2011, the ‘Stache was not among the starting pitchers I projected for the Twins. Instead, I proposed trading for the Royals’ Zack Greinke and in that scenario, Greinke’s salary would almost certainly preclude the Twins from being able to afford to also bring back Pavano.

But among the various “blueprints” posted by the Twins bloggers I’ve read, I’m certainly not the only one who has proposed letting Pavano take his talents elsewhere. I probably haven’t read all of the blogs that have posted “blueprints” in response to the Twinscentric guys’ suggestion, but I can think of at least 10 I’ve read through just off the top of my head and, of those, only one proposed re-signing Pavano. In fact, for most of us, it seems the question most often discussed is whether the Twins should offer Pavano arbitration or not. He’s a Type A free agent, meaning if the Twins offer him arbitration and he rejects it, the Twins stand to get two high compensatory draft picks in return.

That’s a fair topic for debate that reasonable minds can agree to disagree on. If the Twins don’t offer arbitration, they get nothing for Pavano if he signs elsewhere. If they do offer arbitration, he MAY decide to accept the offer, leaving the Twins locked in to paying him possibly somewhere close to $10 million for 2011 and significantly limiting the front office’s other offseason options.

But that’s not the “disconnect” I’m talking about. Almost all of us seem to agree that we’ve seen the last days of ‘Stache as a Twin. Almost uniformly, we agree that the Twins have upgrade needs and there simply isn’t room for the upgrades we want to see while also retaining Pavano for the price he’s earned the right to command on the open market.

And yet…

Has anyone else noticed that the predominant “outside” opinion about where Carl Pavano will be pitching next season seems to be that he’s going to remain a Twin?

I can’t say I religiously check all of the national online writers, but I do check in on si.com pretty much every day (probably because I go to cnn.com for my daily news fix). Both Jon Heyman and Ben Reiter at si.com think the Twins will/should re-sign Pavano. In addition, Tim Dierkes over at MLBTradeRumors.com feels the same way. In fact, three out of the five MLBTR writers are on board with ‘Stache staying a Twin.

That’s got me asking myself, “Are we missing something here?”

On the surface, reports that the Twins made a competitive posting bid for the rights to Japanese pitcher Hisashi Iwakuma would seem to indicate that the Twins certainly aren’t counting on Pavano returning. But having been unsuccessful with that bid, would Bill Smith re-think the situation?

I’m not backing off from my stated desire to land Greinke, but based on what we’re starting to hear about Kansas City’s trade demands*, I’m beginning to accept that there’s not likely going to be a deal made to get Zack in a Twins uniform during the offseason. My best hope might be that nobody meets the Royals’ price and that perhaps once KC is realistically eliminated from the AL Central race next season (that should be what… mid May?), their front office becomes a bit more anxious to relieve themselves of Greinke’s contract.

But if Greinke isn’t an option, then I think perhaps the Twins do need to think harder about keeping Pavano around. I just don’t see a lot of opportunities for significant upgrades out there and if you can’t improve the top of your rotation, at least you’d better make sure you keep what you’ve got.

If the Twins offer arbitration, I really don’t see Pavano and his agent accepting it as they did last season. The free agent market for starting pitchers, after Cliff Lee, is pretty thin. Pavano will get two-year offers and perhaps the Twins should be one of the teams willing to go that route. I suppose it’s possible that some team may be desperate enough to offer three guaranteed years, but if it also means they cough up a draft choice? I’m not so sure.

Keeping ‘Stache around likely means starting the season with a rotation of Liriano, Pavano, Baker, Duensing and Blackburn/Slowey. If Kyle Gibson is everything people seem to think he’s going to be, maybe by mid-year he’ll be wowing us all the same way Liriano and Santana did once they finally forced their ways in to the rotation.

If not, I’m sure Bill Smith still will have the Royals’ phone number… they aren’t going anywhere. – JC

*This from ESPN’s Jayson Stark regarding the Royals’ demands for Greinke:

…according to clubs that have spoken with them, they’re telling bidders up front that (A) they would need to “win” the deal, (B) they would have to get the kind of four-for-one haul the Rangers got for Mark Teixeira to pull the trigger, (C) they need a bunch of “front-line, winning, quality players” in return, and (D) at least one of those players has to be a pitcher capable of turning into the next Zack Greinke in a couple of years.

JC’s Twins Offseason Blueprint: Zack Fever

Posted on 8 November, 2010 by Jim Crikket

The Twincentric guys have challenged the rest of the Twins blogging community to come up with our own “blueprints” for the Twins off-season. Seth, John, Nick and Parker each have put out their own suggestions and included them not only in their excellent 2011 Offseason GM Handbook, but also in the Twincentric blog at the StarTribune site.

The goal is to assemble a 25-man roster that will maintain the Twins’ position at the top of their division while living within a reasonable payroll budget.

Conventional wisdom is that the Twins will have room to go up to somewhere in the neighborhood of $110-115 million to start the year, but I’ve got a hunch Bill Smith has the flexibility to go as high as $120 million.

So here’s Jim Crikket’s “blueprint”.

Priority 1: The top of the rotation

One widely held belief is that the Twins need someone that would be considered a good bet to fill a top-of-the-rotation role… and I totally agree. Some think Francisco Liriano is better than anyone reasonably available on the market. That may or may not be true, but either way, he’s already a Twin and you don’t improve your rotation by bringing back the same arms. If you want to improve the rotation, you have to bring in someone else with the potential to perform at or above Liriano’s level.

Zack Greinke has been the focus of trade speculation involving the Twins pretty much since the season wrapped up, but I’ve been coveting Greinke much longer than that.

The Yankees or Rangers will sign Cliff Lee. Whichever of those teams doesn’t get Lee is a good bet to sign Jorge de la Rosa, the second best starting pitcher on the free agent market. The third best free agent SP is Carl Pavano, so improvement must come via trade. I want Greinke and the Royals are going to trade him to dump the $27 million he’s owed over the next two years. They aren’t going to be competitive for the next two years, so they’re not going to hesitate to trade Greinke within the division. If I’m the Twins’ GM, I go get him. He and Liriano could form a formidable Righty/Lefty combination at the top of the rotation for the next couple of years.

You don’t get a guy like that for nothing, so the price will be high. The Royals will need an immediate replacement for their rotation along with a couple of near-ready prospects. I’ll send Kevin Slowey (though they’ll push for Brian Duensing) and they’ll obviously want the Twins’ top prospect, outfielder Aaron Hicks. Pitcher Kyle Waldrop would also make some sense because he’d have to be added to the 40-man roster by the Twins to avoid losing him in the Rule 5 draft anyway. He could contribute immediately in Kansas City. It may take some additional lesser pieces added to the deal on one side or the other (or both) to make everyone happy, but there’s a deal to be made with KC.

Some have suggested that now is the time to lock up Francisco Liriano for 3-4 years and while I have no objection to that (especially if they can get him at a discounted rate for 2011), I’d probably opt to wait at least until mid season. I want to see a bit more healthy consistency before I commit $20-30 million (or more) over the next several years.

Priority 2: Restock the bullpen

There are a lot of free agent relievers available, but I just don’t see the Twins dipping in to that pool, other than to make a serious run at retaining Jesse Crain. He’d like a shot at closing, but I don’t see anyone handing him that opportunity. In fact, his best option may be with the Twins. I see no way Nathan is ready to take back that role by the start of the season. That leaves Smith in a position to offer Crain a chance to compete for the closer spot with Matt Capps in Spring Training. I’d offer Crain a two year contract with performance incentives tied to saves. Say $3 million the first year and $4 million in 2012.

Rather than take Matt Capps through arbitration, where he’s likely to get something between $7-8 million. I think he’d be signable for two years with $6 million due in 2011 and $7-8 million in 2012.

The rest of the bullpen would consist of home-grown talent (except, of course, for Eric Hacker, a career minor-leaguer who the Twins will sign out of the Giants’ organization to a Major League contract, because, yanno, the Twins don’t already have enough AAAA level right handed pitchers in their organization). It seems like every year there’s one “surprise” rookie who earns a bullpen spot out of Spring Training. I’ll go out on a limb and say Kyle Gibson impresses the coaches enough to be that guy in 2011.

Priority 3: Sort out the outfield

I’m already on record as predicting the Twins will trade either Jason Kubel or Delmon Young. Unless it takes Young to get Greinke (and I don’t think it should), I’d send Jason Kubel to whatever team is willing to part with the most minor league talent in return. It allows me to shed his $5.25 salary and restock some of the talent lost in the Greinke deal.

That leaves Young, Span and Cuddyer in my outfield and I go looking for a fourth OF that can play all three positions, switch-hit so he can hit against any pitcher, provide a bit better defense than the existing corner outfielders, and not cost me more than a couple of million dollars. I think a guy that could fit those criteria might be Melky Cabrera. I know, his defense is below average, but the Twins might be the only team he could sign with where he’d have a chance to actually improve the OF defense. Yes, the Twins OF defense is that bad.

Priority 4: Put together the infield

The infield is really not tough to address. I’d start by offering JJ Hardy a two year deal (say $5 mil per year), getting him to take a few bucks less in 2011 in return for an extra year of security. The 2B job is Alexi Casilla’s to lose. If he loses it, it’s likely to be to either Matt Tolbert or Brendan Harris, who will get the utility roles. Danny Valencia’s playing 3B for the league minimum.

Priority 5: Decide who the backup catcher is

I can’t believe how much energy was spent on debating who the back up catcher should have been this season. That will probably continue, but I don’t see the big deal. I’d go with Drew Butera because he throws runners out better than Jose Morales, but if the organization goes another direction, I really don’t care. Whoever it is will make the league minimum.

The Thome situation

All of that adds up to a payroll of $115.15 million for 24 players. I stopped at 24 because I’d still like to find room for Jim Thome. There has been talk about him being able to command as much as $4 million for a full time DH job somewhere, but (a) he wants to play for a contender, (b) I’m not sure many AL contenders really want to give a guy who can play no defense at all a full time job, and (c) I’m not sure Thome even wants a full time job. If I can get him on a one year $2.35 million deal, it allows me to hold my payroll to $117.5 million.

If I can’t get Thome, I’ll talk to the agents of Marcus Thames and Eric Hinske about a deal in the $1 million neighborhood instead. Having the switch-hitting Cabrera on board allows me the flexibility to look at both left handed and right handed hitters to fill out my bench/DH spot.

JC’s 2011 Opening Day Roster (salary):

Starting Line Up:

C: Joe Mauer ($23 mil)

1B: Justin Morneau ($14 mil)

2B: Alexi Casilla ($800K)

3B: Danny Valencia ($500K)

SS: JJ Hardy ($5 mil)

LF: Delmon Young ($5 mil)

CF: Denard Span ($1 mil)

RF: Michael Cuddyer ($10.5 mil)

DH: Jim Thome ($2.35 mil)

Bench:

Drew Butera ($500K)

Matt Tolbert ($500K)

Brendan Harris ($1.75 mil)

Melky Cabrera ($2 mil)

Rotation:

Zack Greinke ($13.5 mil)

Francisco Liriano ($4.5 mil)

Scott Baker ($5 mil)

Nick Blackburn ($3 mil)

Brian Duensing ($500K)

Bullpen:

Joe Nathan ($12.5)

Matt Capps ($6 mil)

Jesse Crain ($3 mil)

Pat Neshek ($800K)

Glen Perkins ($800K) Eric Hacker ($500K)… seriously?

Jose Mijares ($500K)

Kyle Gibson ($500K)

TOTAL: $117.5 million Opening Day payroll.

– JC

The Free Agent Market

Posted on 5 November, 2010 by Jim Crikket

One of the difficult things for me to get accustomed to, as a fan of the Twins in this relatively new era that has the organization no longer at or near the bottom of the MLB payroll list, is that the Twins are not completely on the outside looking in when it comes to shopping for free agent talent during the off-season.

True, the Twins are still not likely to compete for any free agent the Yankees (or Red Sox… or probably even the Angels) really want. And yes, the $23.5 million per year that the Twins are shelling out for Joe Mauer means they still have to shop wisely. But there’s really no reason any player’s agent should laugh every time Bill Smith’s phone number comes up on the caller ID.

Shouldn’t a team that sells out virtually every home game, drawing over 3 million fans, at least be considered a likely landing spot for a few of the top 50 or so free agents on the market? Not according to SI.com’s Ben Reiter, who posted his ranking of this year’s Top 50 Free Agents along with the teams he feels constitute each player’s “best fit”. If you’re thinking of clicking the link to see who he sees being the FAs best fitting with the Twins, let me save you the time. There are two. We know them well. Carl Pavano (#12) and Jim Thome (#20).

Granted, that’s two in his top 20 and it’s two more than writers likely would have matched up with the Twins over the course of a couple of decades prior to Target Field opening. I wouldn’t be at all disappointed if Smith finds a way to keep those two guys (though I really can’t see Pavano as likely at this point), but still, why wouldn’t the Twins be considered likely to land a couple of the Top 50 who DIDN’T wear a Twins uniform in 2010?

Turns out there are a couple of reasons.

First, the Twins have to have a critical need at a position where there are good free agents available. Most people see the Twins needs, going in to next season, as being an “ace” (I hate using that term… is there a more overused and misused term thrown around among Twins fans this month than “ace”? I don’t think so) pitcher, a restocking of their bullpen, and a right-handed bat with power. Right there, you can see why the Twins may not be major players in this year’s FA market.

The number of true, top of the rotation, starting pitchers in this market total exactly… one (unless you want to bet on the Rockies’ Jorge de la Rosa (#9) being an ace… which I’m not willing to do at this point). I’m not saying the Twins couldn’t out bid the Yankees and Rangers for Cliff Lee, but let’s just say the odds are remote (and that’s being unrealistically optimistic). The third ranked starting pitcher among Reiter’s Top 50 FAs is Carl Pavano and you don’t improve your starting rotation simply by re-signing one of the guys you had last season. So if the Twins do pick up a top of the rotation arm, it will have to be via trade.

In the bullpen, the Twins have Matt Capps and Joe Nathan on board already making “closer money”, so they’re not going to buy any of the relief pitchers on that Top 50 list. We can hope they find a way to retain one or two of the middle/set up relievers they stand to lose via free agency (Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, Jon Rauch), but anyone else they add will come from internal options or out of the lower tier of the FA market. That’s really just a reflection of the lesser value the league places on the position.

So that leaves the right handed bat. Surely there must be a few guys who could pump a few balls in to Target Field’s bullpen on that Top 50 list, right? Of course there are. But you really have to ask yourself what position(s) you have open before you go shopping. Cross catchers and corner infielders off your list… you’re not going to bring in someone with the intent of replacing Mauer, Morneau or Danny Valencia. Let’s also forget about center fielders and middle infielders… there simply aren’t many of them that fit the “RH bat with power” description in the Top 50 FA rankings. Juan Uribe falls in to that category. And maybe Derek Jeter, if you want to feel generous toward him and say he has some power.

So if you want that RH power bat, it’s going to have to be a corner outfielder and/or DH. Since your two likely starting corner outfielders are already RH hitters with some power, Delmon Young and Michael Cuddyer, you’re really looking for either someone to be the right handed half of a DH platoon or someone significantly enough better than Young/Cuddyer that you use one of them in that part time DH role. It’s fine with me if the Twins make a run at guys like Jayson Werth and Carl Crawford, but the chances of that happening are perhaps only slightly better than seeing them compete for Cliff Lee.

So if you want someone on that Top 50 list, the question becomes, “how many of them would accept a part time role?” Would Vlad Guerrero? It might be fun to have a Thome/Vlad platoon, but it sounds like the Rangers, after not picking up his option, are trying to re-sign him anyway.

That said, there are a lot of aging DH-type players on the market. I doubt the Twins will jump in to the free agent DH market ahead of everyone else (other than perhaps to re-sign Thome), but after the Winter Meetings are over and after we’ve all recovered from our New Years Eve hangovers, it will be interesting to see which DHs still haven’t found a team. That strategy netted the Twins a sweet deal on Thome last year and I see no reason why they shouldn’t try it again this year. Specifically, I’ll keep my eyes on what kind of offers Lance Berkman, Ty Wigginton, Pat Burrell and even Miguel Tejada are getting. Each of them could fill a right handed DH/PH role and also back up various positions around the field.

In the end, any acquisition of a top pitcher will have to come through trade and ideally we’ll see many familiar faces in the bullpen. But I believe there will be affordable, productive right handed bats available out of that Top 50 FA list even if the Twins wait for the post-Holiday discount sales.

At least I sure hope so. – JC

About The Twins Outfield Situation

Posted on 1 November, 2010 by Jim Crikket

As we continue examining the options available to the Twins’ brass with regard to the formation of the 2011 roster, I think it’s worth taking a look at the outfield. I know that, on the surface, this appears to be one unit (perhaps the only one) where many people expect to see little or no change, other than seeing it revert to the unit as it was before Michael Cuddyer had to shift to first base to replace Justin Morneau.

Going in to 2010, the Twins clearly decided they would be willing to sacrifice some OF defense in return for making sure they had the sticks necessary in the line up to score more runs. The hope was that Denard Span would have the range to cover not only centerfield, but left-center and right-center as well. We don’t need fancy advanced defensive metrics to know that Delmon Young, Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel are not exactly candidates for gold gloves in the outfield.

Delmon certainly held up his end of the bargain, having his most productive year as a Twin (and winning the Knuckleballs Boyfriend of the Year Award, in the process!). But outside of DY, the outfielders simply did not live up to their expectations.

To be fair, Jason Kubel wasn’t supposed to have to play rightfield every day. He was supposed to DH. Maybe he’d have had a better year with the bat if he had been able to simply play the role intended. Maybe. And Michael Cuddyer certainly wasn’t supposed to play 1B for half a season. Maybe if he had been able to just play his more familiar role in RF, he’d have hit better, too. Maybe.

But then there’s Denard Span. I like Denard. I like him a lot. I expected great things from him in 2010. Maybe too much. It’s not his fault, I suppose, if my expectations were elevated and, in the end, unmet. He just simply did not get on base as reliably as a lead off hitter for a contending team needs to. And I don’t even want to discuss how often he got picked off once he did get on base. In short, he needs to do better… much better. I also was disappointed with his defense. No it isn’t fair that he has to cover half the outfield instead of just a third of it, but life isn’t fair sometimes. I also was less than impressed with the way he covered his own third of the field. He seemed to get poor jumps and appeared timid any time he got within 10 feet of a fence. Maybe it was just a matter of getting comfortable with the new ballpark. Maybe.

That’s a lot of maybes, folks.

Jason Repko did a nice job as a late inning defensive replacement and he gave the Twins a CF option when Span needed a day off, but he’s really not a consideration as a starting outfielder on a regular basis. Still, the Twins will need him, or someone like him, on the roster in 2011. That means five roster spots taken up by outfielders.

Obviously, the outfield spots are also influenced by the decisions made with regard to the DH, since one could argue not only Kubel, but Young and even Cuddyer might be better DH options than outfielders. Given that, does it make sense to bring Jim Thome back, even if he’s again available at a discounted price? Yes… of course it does.

Come March, most people would probably bet that we’ll see all of these familiar faces in Twins uniforms, once again. We can hope that Kubel, Cuddyer and Span bounce back and have better years with the bat, that Delmon continues to build on this season’s success, and that we all get to witness Jim Thome belting career HR #600 in a Twins uniform in 2011.

Then again… if I were Bill Smith, I would be looking for a top of the rotation pitcher and if it takes one of these outfielders to get that need filled, I wouldn’t hesitate to make such a deal. That could result in “addition by subtraction” if it means Thome returns and gets more DH opportunities than he might otherwise and if an outfielder can be added to the line up that can both cover decent ground in a corner position and play CF on occasion.

It’s unlikely that the Twins would find a trade partner willing to take on Cuddyer’s contract or Span’s extension (which starts getting pricier in 2012), leaving Kubel (who’s reasonable $5.25 million option was picked up by the Twins last week) and Young (who is still locked in to arbitration) as the most likely trade chips. I think both players have several very productive offensive years ahead of them in Major League Baseball and if those are in Twins uniforms, that’s fine. But the Twins arguably have a surplus of talent in the outfield and to shore up other needs, sometimes you have to give up good ballplayers and the Twins definitely have a couple of positions that need shoring up.

The Twins front office is not exactly known for making dramatic trades, but Bill Smith has proven he doesn’t just go in to hibernation in the off-season, either. I think this organization knows they need to improve their roster from the outside before Opening Day 2011 and I think that means Jason Kubel or Delmon Young will be wearing a different uniform in 2011.

Do you want or expect to see changes in the Twins OF next season or do you think they should keep this unit intact as is? Please use the comment section to let us know your thoughts! – JC

Things That Make Me Go “Hmmm”

Posted on 26 October, 2010 by Jim Crikket

I was a big fan of the late George Carlin back in the days of my misspent youth. I mean, I liked Bill Cosby and Gallagher, too… but Carlin always made me laugh. My favorite part of his stand-up routine was when he’d come up with the “Things That Make You Go Hmmm”. You know what I mean… like “Why don’t you ever see the headline ‘Psychic Wins Lottery’?”

Well, since Bud Selig and the other geniuses at MLB decided we should all take what seems like a month off between the end of the LCS and the World Series, I thought this would be a good time to share some of what I’ve read lately that made me go “hmmm.” So that’s what I’m going to do. Below are a few things I found interesting and links to where you might read more.

I’ve been a big fan of Zack Greinke and have been up front for some time about wishing there was a way to get him in to a Twins uniform. So this tidbit from Seth Stohs’ post on Sunday caught my attention:

Speaking of the offseason, the Zack Greinke rumors are already in full gear. Apparently the Twins are among the teams that Greinke would accept a trade to. There is talk that due to his social anxiety disorder, he would prefer to stay in a small market. Travis Aune (of) TravisTwinsTalk.blogspot.com tells me that he has heard rumors of a potential deal involving Greinke and David DeJesus coming to the Twins in exchange for Kevin Slowey, Delmon Young and Aaron Hicks.

Greinke is due $13.5 million for both 2011 and 2012. DeJesus gets $6 million for 2011. Together, that’s about $12 million more than the Twins would be paying Slowey and Young next season (Hicks would remain a minor leaguer for at least another year with the Twins). I’m not sure the Twins have room for that kind of payroll bump, but it’s an interesting thought.

Meanwhile, the Yankees are chomping at the bit to get moving on making sure they don’t fail to reach the World Series two years in a row. Frustrated, I’m sure, by not being able to throw gazillions of dollars at Cliff Lee while Lee is still pitching for his current team, the Rangers, in the World Series, the Yankees decided to do something immediately to begin the process of fixing their team… they fired their pitching coach, Dave Eiland. Right, guys, it wasn’t your overpaid, underperforming, arms that cost you the World Series berth you feel entitled to, it was your pitching coach.

Coincidentally, while the media seems to have determined it’s a foregone conclusion that Lee will be a Yankee in 2011, those classy Yankee fans at Yankee Stadium may have screwed up GM Brian Cashman’s plans. According to USA Today, it seems Cliff’s wife Kristen was none too impressed with how she was treated at Yankee Stadium during the ALCS.

Perhaps the Rangers’ greatest sales pitch simply was having Kristen sit in the visiting family section at Yankee Stadium during the playoffs. She says there were ugly taunts. Obscenities. Cups of beer thrown. Even fans spitting from the section above.

“The fans did not do good things in my heart,” Kristen says.

“When people are staring at you, and saying horrible things, it’s hard not to take it personal.”

Wouldn’t it be a gas if the typical Yankee fan behavior turned out to be a critical factor in Cliff Lee telling the Yankees to “shove it” and staying with the Rangers?

While on the subject of the Yankees, I’ve read the following “rumors” about Cashman’s offseason plans (beyond the obvious intent to throw money at Cliff Lee):

While Derek Jeter’s value on the open market to teams other than the Yankees would be about $7 million on a one-year deal, the Yankees are likely to sign him to a 3-year contract for about $45 million. HOWEVER… as part of that deal, they should let him know that he should no longer expect to always hit in the top two spots in the order and he should be made aware that he’ll not be playing shortstop every day. He may transition to other positions, including possibly DHing. (Where do I sign up for a gig that gets me paid, by my current employer, twice what I’m worth to anyone else, on the condition that I accept the fact that I won’t be working as much?)
One writer speculated that Jeter would begin transitioning to 3B, with Alex Rodriguez beginning to DH.
Jorge Posada will not be catching as much next year but would be used as the primary DH. In fact, the Yankees may carry three catchers including current part-time catcher Francisco Cervelli and uber-prospect Jesus Montero, with the plan being to gradually get Montero MLB catching experience and using both Montero and Posada as DHs.
In an effort to figure out how to justify spending even more Steinbrenner money to bring in Carl Crawford or Jayson Werth for 2011, there’s speculation that the Yankees might trade current RF Nick Swisher or… if the Yankees find no takers for Swisher and his $9 million contract… move Swisher to DH.

All of which has me wondering just how soon Bud Selig will be proposing a new rule allowing the Yankees to use five DHs in their line up.

Finally, I’ve gone several weeks now without linking to a Joe Posnanski “Curiously Long Post” so I’m going to link/recommend two of them that should be considered “must reads”. One is about Mike Sweeney (caution… if you’re anything like me, reading this may make you feel inclined to wish the Twins would offer Sweeney a non-roster invitation to Spring Training, just to see if they could wring a little more magic out of him as a right handed DH/PH) and the other is actually a re-post of an article he wrote about accompanying Tony Pena on a trip to his native Dominican Republic several years ago when Pena was the Royals’ manager. I have to admit, I loved the way Pena ran a team from the catcher position and wish there was a bit of Pena’s fire in Mr. Mauer.

That’s all for now! – JC

Who’s Closing for the Twins in 2011?

Posted on 25 October, 2010 by Jim Crikket

Since the Twins were eliminated from the 2010 postseason, we (and a whole lot of other people) have written a bit about the roster decisions the Twins will be making this off-season. I still haven’t quite landed on what I really want to see Bill Smith and the gang do about the roster. One thing I have figured out, though, is that if I sat down to write a blog post about what I think the Twins should do, it would be a very… very… long post.

So I think we should attack this subject a little bit at a time. Like, maybe just one or two players in a post. Let’s especially look at some of the guys that may or may not be wearing the Twins pinstripes next season. Along the way, if we decide they may not be around, we should also mention something about the options the team might explore to replace that player.

Let’s start with Jesse Crain and Matt Capps because I believe their futures with the Twins are mutually exclusive. If one stays, the other goes elsewhere. And I think both of their fates are entangled a bit with Joe Nathan’s.

Let me just say that I’m one of those people who think the “save” statistic is wayyyyyy overrated as a meaningful statistic. That said, I don’t believe you can just plug any decent bullpen arm in to the closer role and watch them succeed. Mental makeup matters. But it’s really too bad that saves have become the kind of statistic that makes the difference between whether a pitcher makes $8 million a year or $3 million.

Think that’s an overstatement? Consider that for most of 2010, Jesse Crain was clearly the most effective pitcher coming out of the Twins’ bullpen. But he wasn’t getting saves. Matt Capps was. Jon Rauch was. Brian Fuentes got saves for the Angels before coming over to the Twins. Next season, unless he and his agent can find a team willing to just hand him a closer job (and pay him accordingly), Jesse Crain is probably going to be pitching somewhere for less than $4 million. All three of his team mates mentioned above, who racked up over 20 saves each during the season, may be making “closer money” somewhere… likely twice what Crain will get.

As much as I would love to see Crain back in the same role he had this year with the Twins… coming in to games in the most critical late-inning situations (which I think is when teams SHOULD use their most dominant reliever)... you really can’t blame Crain for publicly stating that he’d like get an opportunity to be a closer somewhere. Yes, you and I could live just fine on $3-4 million a year. I’m sure Jesse does, too. But we’re talking about possibly doubling his pay if he can work himself in to a closer role in the next year or two and start notching those saves. That would matter to me, too.

The Twins are a bit handcuffed by the $12.5 million they’re going to be obligated to pay Joe Nathan next season. That’s high-end closer money going to a guy who probably is not going to be closing for them. Yes, it would be wonderful if Nathan came to Spring Training and just picked right up where he left off before having his elbow rebuilt this past March. But it’s really just not reasonable to expect that to happen. It would be rare for a pitcher to return to that level of effectiveness that soon. It would be foolish of the Twins not to have at least one other option they trust to slam the door on opponents in the last inning.

Sure, maybe one of the cheaper arms in the Twins’ stable could step in… Mijares or Neshek maybe… or perhaps one of the kids who have been toiling in Rochester or New Britain could rise to the challenge. But if you were Bill Smith, would you want to rely on that? I’m not Bill Smith and I don’t want to rely on that.

The Twins need a Plan B (or arguably a Plan A, with a fully recovered Nathan the Plan B). That’s where Capps and Crain come in.

Matt Capps is arbitration eligible and people who know this stuff much better than I do say he’d get something around $8-9 million in arbitration because that process rewards those pesky save statistics. I know Capps is not exactly Mr. Popular among a lot of Twins fans/bloggers. I’ve never quite understood that. He’s still young and I expect he’ll perform well in a closer role for several years to come… somewhere. Then again, Jesse Crain has felt the wrath of Twins fans/bloggers, as well, over the years.

Crain is a free agent. To bring him back, the Twins will need to outbid other teams who might be interested in his services. I’m not sure any team will pay him $5+ million and promise him the opportunity to close, but they might. If he gets that kind of offer, he should take it and the Twins should thank him for his services and say good-bye. Hey… at least that would free up the Twins to retire #28 when Bert is elected to the Hall of Fame this year, right?

But if Crain doesn’t get that kind of offer elsewhere, maybe he’d be willing to come back for another year with the Twins at $3-4 million (perhaps with a much higher option for 2012 with a reasonable buy-out) and the promise that he’ll be given an opportunity to compete for the closer role.

If the Twins could make that deal with Crain, they could non-tender Capps and save a few bucks to use elsewhere. Alternatively, they could go ahead and take Capps to arbitration and then let Capps and Crain compete in March. The winner gets the Twins closer gig and the loser gets traded to someone else who suddenly finds themselves needing a closer as Opening Day nears. Someone always needs a closer as Opening Day nears.

The risk of this approach, however, is that if one of those guys gets injured, the Twins are stuck paying both Capps and Crain next season.

The bottom line is, I don’t see a need to carry Nathan, Crain and Capps in to 2011. That’s about $25 million in salary to three relief pitchers and I believe that’s a luxury the Twins can’t afford if they’re going to maintain a competitive group of every day players. – JC

Use the comment section to tell us who you think will/should get the opportunity to fill the role of Twins’ closer in 2011.

Let’s Build a Twins Roster

Posted on 18 October, 2010 by Jim Crikket

Last week, we took a glance at all of the players that we may have to be willing to say good-bye to by Opening Day next season.Today, let’s try to figure out how we (or more specifically, Twins GM Bill Smith) can find room for at least some of those players on next years’ roster.

Unfortunately, the first thing we have to talk about is money. The Twins front office doesn’t like to talk about money. (Have you ever noticed, the people who HAVE money are always the people who don’t like talking about money?) The Twins’ reluctance (refusal?) to disclose details about their financial status makes the exercise of trying to figure out who they can afford to bring back (never mind add) to the roster this off-season.

This season, the Twins had about a $98 million payroll to start the season and, with the midseason additions, apparently barely broke through the $100 million mark.I’m not sure it’s realistic to expect revenues to increase significantly (although I’m sure they’ll raise ticket prices) and if revenues don’t increase a lot, neither will payroll.

The bottom line is that the Twins are not going to allow their payroll to increase like it did this season. I’m hoping we see Bill Smith set a goal to open the season with a Major League payroll at or above $115 million, but that may be wishful thinking. (If you think the Twins are going to escalate payroll more dramatically, keep in mind that the Angels broke the $100 million payroll mark in 2004… and didn’t escalate past $120 million until just this year.)

Let’s see what that means in terms of who we can expect to see in a Twins uniform in 2011. To do that, we have to do some guesswork concerning the team picking up various player options and likely arbitration awards. Players in bold have guaranteed contracts.

Catchers: Joe Mauer ($23mil) and a back up ($500K) getting the league minimum. Total $23.5 million.

Infield: Justin Morneau ($14mil), Brendan Harris ($1.75mil), Alexi Casilla ($1mil), Danny Valencia ($500K), Matt Tolbert ($500K). Total $17.75 million. (We’ll talk about Nick Punto, JJ Hardy and Orlando Hudson later.)

Outfield: Michael Cuddyer ($10.5mil), Denard Span ($1mil), Jason Kubel ($5.25mil), Delmon Young ($5mil). Total $21.75 million. (We’ll talk about Jason Repko later.)

Starting pitchers: Scott Baker ($5mil), Francisco Liriano ($4.5mil), Nick Blackburn ($3mil), Kevin Slowey ($3mil), Brian Duensing ($500K). Total $16 million. (We’ll talk about Carl Pavano later.)

Relief pitchers: Joe Nathan ($12.5mil), Matt Capps ($8mil), Jose Mijares ($500K). Total $21 million. (We’ll try to fill in the rest of the bullpen later.)

Kubel09 — What do you do about Jason Kubel's option?

That’s exactly $100 million for those 19 ballplayers. If we use that $115 million figure as our “payroll budget”, we have $15 million to spend on the remaining half dozen players to fill out our roster. If they want to spend more than that, they can make room by trading one of these 19 (assuming the trade partner is willing to take on all of that player’s salary), by buying out Kubel’s option year (saving a little under $5 million), or not offering arbitration to Capps, Young, Liriano, Slowey or other lesser-compensated players and letting them become free agents.

Assuming the Twins would carry a 12-arm pitching staff, four of the remaining six spots would be pitchers and the other two would be somehow accounted for by an infielder, an outfielder and/or a DH.

If you’re going to shop first among the players who wore Twins uniforms this season, here are your options… and their estimated price tags:

Pitchers:

Carl Pavano (likely to command a 2-3 year contract at about $10 million per year as a free agent)

Jesse Crain (made $2 million this year and likely to command a multi-year contract for at least $3 million per year as a free agent)

Matt Guerrier (made $3.15 million this year and likely to get at least that much next year as a free agent)

Glen Perkins, Pat Neshek, Ron Mahay, Randy Flores are probably going to cost somewhere just south of $1 million.

Alex Burnett, Anthony Slama, Rob Delaney, Kyle Waldrop would make the league minimum $500K.

Position Players:

Orlando Hudson (likely to command $6 million as a free agent).

JJ Hardy (likely to earn $6 million or more through arbitration).

Nick Punto (Twins have a $5 million option that almost certainly won’t be picked up. They could buy it out for $500K and try to bring him back for something closer to $1.5 million).

Jim Thome (likely to command $4 million as a free agent).

Jason Repko (likely available for something less than $1 million)

Trevor Plouffe and Ben Revere would be options at the league minimum $500K.

So, you say you want to bring back Pavano, Crain, Guerrier and one of the rookies, along with Hardy and Thome? That’s $26.5 million… or $11.5 million more than you have available to spend.

Maybe you’re willing to let Pavano go and stick with the home grown rotation, if it means keeping Crain and Guerrier and filling out the rest of the pen with kids. That could leave you $9 million to spend on position players, perhaps allowing you to keep Hardy and Thome.

But you say you want to see Nick Punto stay in a Twins uniform? OK… which are you saying good-bye to, Jim Thome or JJ Hardy? (Not exercising Nick’s option wouldn’t necessarily preclude the Twins from signing him to a more reasonable “utility player” contract… maybe $1.5 million or so.)

Maybe you’d try to trade Jason Kubel. That’s fine, but that leaves you with just 3 outfielders, unless Punto or Hardy can move out there.

See… being a General Manager isn’t so easy, is it?

And we haven’t even discussed the possibility that there might be someone out there on the free agent market that you think might help improve your team.

I’m still trying to decide what I’m going to recommend to Bill Smith when he calls to ask for my advice. I want a top of the line starting pitcher for the rotation and I’d like to add an outfielder that can hit AND field a position. I just haven’t figured out how to pay for all that and bring back a couple of guys I don’t really want to lose.

But don’t wait for me. Feel free to use the comment section to play General Manager and let us know how you’d fill out the roster AND stay within your budget. – JC

Gardy And The Gripers

Posted on 14 October, 2010 by Jim Crikket

Sometimes Ron Gardenhire drives me nuts with some of the decisions he makes during the course of a game. Then again, I’m sure managers of every MLB team drive some of their fans nuts with that kind of thing.

But what ‘s nuttier are the people loudly clamoring for Ron Gardenhire’s hide because he hasn’t successfully vanquished the Yankees to get to a World Series. That’s just crap.

Why can’t Gardy get his teams past the Yankees? Hmmmm… gosh… I wonder. It couldn’t possibly have anything to do with the fact that in exactly NONE of the seasons the Twins lost to the Yankees in the LDS (2004, 05, 09, 10) has the Twins payroll been within even $100 million friggin dollars of the Yankees, could it?

It’s impossible for me to take any Gardy critic seriously if all he/she does is go on about how the Twins need to fire Gardy without telling us who they think would do the job better. Who WOULD lead this team past those pesky Yankees? The closest most of them ever come to presenting alternatives is when they drone on about how great Tom Kelly was because he won two titles or argue that Ozzie Friggin Guillen would have delivered titles if he had been managing the Twins instead of the White Sox. Are you kidding me?

Tom Kelly won two division titles in 16 years! Yes, he won World Series those two seasons, but (a) he never faced a team in the playoffs with a significant talent/payroll advantage, and (b) all he had to do to get to the World Series those two years was win one best-of-five series each year. I like Tom Kelly but comparing his “success” with Gardenhire’s is absurd. And Guillen? Seriously? He’s won exactly two division titles in seven years. Yes, he won one World Series. How did he do against the Yankees, though? Oh… that’s right… he’s never faced the Yankees in the post-season.

But there must be SOMEONE the Twins could replace Gardy with who’s had some success against the Yankees, right? After all, they don’t win the World Series every year!

Maybe we could hire Mike Scioscia away from the Angels! He’s managed to beat the Yankees twice this decade in the post-season (2002, 2005). Sure, he lost to the Yankees a year ago and his post-season record against the Red Sox (1-3) isn’t much to brag about, but if you can get him, go for it. Then again, he’s already working for an organization that’s been spending $100 million on payroll since about 2004, so he might be tough to convince to make the jump to Minnesota.

Likewise, Terry Francona managed to beat the Yankees in the post-season… once. But I think he still has a job with a team that’s been pumping over $100 million in to payroll the entire decade, so I’m not sure your chances of pulling him to Minnesota are even as good as getting Scioscia.

Hmm… managers with the kind of success Twins fans want to have against the Yankees seem to be already managing teams who have been far out-spending the Twins for players this decade. I wonder if that has anything to do with how “smart” those managers are?

But someone else in the AL must have beaten the Yankees in the post-season, right?

Hey, Eric Wedge beat the Yankees with the Indians in 2007 (with an assist from a swarm of bugs) and he’s looking for a gig. Then again, the reason he’s available is that Cleveland dumped his ass two years after he conquered those Yanks. It seems that was the only year Wedge led his team to the playoffs. In fact, his teams won more than half their games exactly twice in his seven years leading the Tribe. Is that the kind of ‘success’ you want? Maybe Gardy should get in touch with the head of the Minnesota Mosquito Union to get some help.

Jim Leyland beat the Yankees in the post-season. Once. But then again, Leyland has won exactly one division title in 19 years of managing. Tiger fans can’t seem to figure out how come Leyland’s teams fall on their collective faces during the second half of what seems like every season. Maybe he could take over in Minnesota and show fans here how that’s done! But hey, at least we wouldn’t be complaining about not being able to beat the Yankees in the post-season any more.

Bobby Valentine is making the rounds, interviewing with pretty much every team looking for a manager. Never mind that in 15 years as a Major League manager, Valentine won exactly… wait for it… ZERO division championships! But hey, he did lead ONE Met team to a World Series as a wild card. Maybe that’s the kind of leadership we need in the Twins clubhouse!

You can talk all you want about Gardy’s puzzling in-game strategy or how he’s too buddy-buddy with the players or how the Yankees are “in his head”. But if you want to know why his Twins teams haven’t been able to get past the Yankees in the playoffs, it’s not hard to figure out. Follow the money.

After starting the 2010 season with a payroll of about $98 million, the Twins added some pieces mid season and broke through that $100 million payroll barrier for the first time in franchise history. With Mauer’s raise to $23 million per season kicking in for 2011, Gardy’s going to be leading a team next season that will have a $100 million+ opening day payroll, including a $20 million player and at least three guys getting better than $10 million each for salaries. Wooooo boy, we’re big time now, right!?

Those Yankees that Gardy’s boys were supposed to beat in the LDS had a $213 million payroll this season. They had four players already bringing down better than $20 million a year. In fact the salaries for just those four players together virtually equaled the Twins entire opening day payroll. They had seven more players pulling down better than $10 million a season. Next year, Cano’s contract moves him in to that $10 million club. There’s also every reason to believe they’ll be adding Cliff Lee or Carl Crawford (or both) to their $20 million-per-year ranks in 2011.

Since 2000, the Yankees are 12-7 in post-season series (if you go back to 1995, it’s 21-9). Yes, four of those series wins this decade have been over the Twins. They’ve also beaten Oakland and Seattle twice each, and the Red Sox, Angels, Mets and Phillies once each. The Angels are the only club who’s managed to win two post-season series from the Yankees in this decade.

Maybe one reason the Yankees have beaten the Twins more than they’ve beaten anyone else in the post-season is because they’ve played the Twins more than they have anyone else. Only the Angels, who’ve had three post-season series with the Yankees, have faced off with the Yankees more than twice since 2000. Only the A’s, Mariners and Red Sox have met them even twice (the Yankees are 5-1 in those match ups).

In the 11 post-seasons since 2000, the Twins have made six post-season appearances, all as division champion and all under Ron Gardenhire. Who can match that?

The Red Sox have also been to the post-season six times, the last five under Terry Francona.
The Angels have also participated six times, all of them under Mike Scioscia.
The Braves have been to the playoffs seven times, all under Bobby Cox.
The Cardinals have also made seven post-season appearances, all under Tony LaRussa.
The Yankees have appeared in the post-season 10 times, eight under Joe Torre and the last two under Joe Girardi.

What do those teams have in common? Solid, consistent managers and front offices and the ability to afford to put competitive talent on the field almost every year.

Explain to me again why a team who’s gone to the playoffs at least as often as all but three teams in all of baseball in the past 11 years should fire their manager? You’re going to have to do better than pointing out that his teams haven’t managed to defeat a team that has used its inherent financial advantages to dominate virtually every other team in baseball, as well.

Bud Selig, the national media, and the Steinbrenners want you to believe that a system that allows one team to rake in so much more revenue than every other team that they can literally buy any player they want, making them the prohibitive favorite to represent the AL in the World Series every year, is good for baseball. Hell, maybe it is. I’m sure rigging things so that the Yankees are likely to get to the World Series almost every year means more money from FOX, TBS or whoever else might pay MLB for television rights to the playoffs. Anyway, I’m just a dumb Midwestern hick, what do I know about running a multi-billion-dollar cartel?

Just don’t try to tell me it’s fair and that the “right manager” evens the odds. It just makes you sound like an idiot.

I may not be as smart as Bud and his cronies, but I’m smart enough to know that the reason the Twins go in to every series with the Yankees as prohibitive underdogs has virtually nothing to do with their manager and everything to do with the talent levels of the players that those teams can afford to put on the field.

You can’t advance in the playoffs unless you make the playoffs. In the American League, that means you manage in a way to give you the best chance to win your division, then you hope to catch lightning in a bottle to get past the team that MLB and its network partners want to see in the World Series. The deck is going to be stacked against you every year and calling for a manager to be fired because he hasn’t beaten those prohibitive odds in four tries is just silly. – JC

Baseball Means Saying Good-bye

Posted on 12 October, 2010 by Jim Crikket

I admit that Saturday night I was ready to forcibly and forever remove the Twins logo from the chest of almost every member of the Twins’ starting lineup. I’ve regained my perspective since then. Well, most of it.

We’ve begun to see writers/bloggers discuss various topics related to the issue of the makeup of the Twins’ 2011 roster. Some look at payroll figures and possible free agents. There’s also some good material about Twins minor leaguers who may be ready to step up on to the big stage next year.

My first reaction to reading this stuff was that it’s a bit early for all that. My team just “died” and I’m not sure I’m quite ready to look at who I’m going to be rooting for next season. But it was the first week of November last year when Bill Smith sent Carlos Gomez to Milwaukee for JJ Hardy. No doubt, the Twins’ GM is already working on piecing together the 2011 Twins, so I suppose a devoted blogger should start doing the same thing.

This is going to be a long process, however. I’m simply not prepared to ask and answer every roster question yet, so let’s do this in stages, shall we?

We’ll start with what is, perhaps for some of us, the most painful question to ask… who are we willing to say good-bye to?

To many of us, the players that make up our favorite team become pseudo-family members. This is especially true for the sort of players that traditionally make up the Twins roster. They’re good guys and they each have their own devoted following among fans. But every year, we have to say good-bye to some of them. Last year, in addition to Go-Go, we said farewell to Mike “Naked Batting Practice” Redmond, Joe Crede and Orlando Cabrera. Crede and Cabrera weren’t really with the team long enough to build much of a following, but Redmond and Gomez, despite being reserves, each had their own loyal fan base.

This year could see more dramatic changes. In fact, the number of players who are virtual locks to be on the team next year, whether because of performance or contract status, are very few. I would put Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, Span, Valencia, Liriano and Nathan (assuming all are healthy) in this category. That’s it.

So let’s look at the rest.

A year ago, the Twins had five players eligible to file for free agency. In addition to Cabrera, Crede and Redmond, pitchers Ron Mahay and Carl Pavano also filed. While they followed different paths, both pitchers eventually found their way back to the Twins roster in 2010.

This off-season, not only is the number of players eligible for free agency higher, but we’re talking about some guys who made major contributions this season. Pavano and Mahay are eligible again and they are joined by Orlando Hudson, Jim Thome, Matt Guerrier, Jesse Crain, Jon Rauch and Randy Flores. While I think we can all agree that re-signing Flores and Mahay won’t be high priorities for Bill Smith, that still leaves half a dozen significant contributors that can walk out the door and sign with the highest bidder. The truth is, some of them will not be in Twins uniforms next year. In fact, it’s possible that none of them will be.

Other players, while technically still under Twins control, still present some tough decisions for Bill Smith in terms of deciding whether to exercise team options or offer arbitration. Is Hardy worth $7 million to keep or do you let him become a free agent, too? Jason Kubel would make $5.25 million in 2011, the final year of his current contract… but the Twins can buy out that year for just $350,000, making him a free agent, as well.

Will Nick Punto and Orlando Hudson be back?

What about Nick Punto? The Twins have been paying him “starter” money and have an option for 2011 to do the same (at $5 million). They’ll certainly pay him the $500,000 buy out instead. Does he re-sign with the Twins for less money or will his agent find him a deal with a team offering more money, more playing time, and less blogger abuse than he’ll get with the Twins?

If you offer Delmon Young and Matt Capps arbitration, they’re going to get something between $5-6 million (Young) and up to $9 million (Capps) for 2011. If you don’t offer them arbitration, their agents will find someone more than willing to pay those amounts, or more. Don’t think you need both Capps AND Brian Fuentes with Joe Nathan coming back? OK… but keeping Fuentes from free agency means picking up the team’s $9 million option for him, too.

And we haven’t even discussed possible trades yet. In addition to the possibility that the Twins could trade any of the players mentioned above who are still under team control, you have to wonder if any of the five starting pitchers not named Pavano would be trade bait in the off-season. I don’t think any of them are untouchable except Liriano.

Finally, there are a handful of guys that may just be gone next year because, even though the Twins technically still control them, their performance levels make them candidates to either be traded or simply beaten out for jobs in Spring Training. I’m looking at you, Brendan Harris, Matt Tolbert, Alexi Casilla, Drew Butera, Jason Repko, Jose Mijares and Pat Neshek.

By my count, that’s 25 players who may be playing elsewhere in 2011. A small number are almost certainly gone. A couple are almost certainly staying. Most are somewhere in between. Off the top of my head, I’d break it down like this:

Almost certainly gone: Mahay, Flores, Rauch, Fuentes

Probably gone: Guerrier, Crain, Hudson, Pavano

Virtually a toss-up: Punto, Thome, Repko, Butera, Neshek, Harris, Tolbert

Probably staying: Kubel, Hardy, Capps, Baker, Blackburn, Duensing, Slowey, Casilla

Almost certainly staying: Young, Mijares

We’ll share our own thoughts about what Bill Smith should or shouldn’t do with regard to roster changes in future posts, but for now, please use the comment section to let us know your opinions.

Who are you willing to say good-bye to? Who do you think the Twins MUST bring back? – JC

PROGRAMMING NOTE: We’ve had some inquiries about whether we’ll be hosting GameChats for any of the remaining postseason games and we’re more than willing to do that if anyone is interested in hanging out at the Knuckleballs Virtual Sports Bar. We’re hoping to open up a GameChat window during tonight’s Rays/Rangers ALDS Game 5 so check back later if you’ve got nothing better to do with your life than watch baseball with us! 🙂