Coming off of back-to-back 90+ loss seasons, the Twins, predictably have a lot of holes in their roster. Most noticeably, the Twins went into this winter with as many as four holes in their starting rotation, then traded away two center fielders, creating another hole, and there is still no real answer in the middle infield. With all those other needs to address, the bullpen has become something of an afterthought, but even with a breakout year from Jared Burton and another strong year from Glen Perkins, the Twins still ranked just 9th in the American League in bullpen ERA (3.77). Of the five teams with worse bullpen ERAs than the Twins in 2012, only the Tigers earned a postseason birth.
So with a below average bullpen in 2012, what will be relieving corps look like in 2013? Glen Perkins will remain the closer and Jared Burton will be the primary 8th inning set-up guy. Beyond those two, Brian Duensing is really the only other player with a firm spot in the pen, serving as the team’s primary left-handed specialist. The Twins commonly work with a seven man bullpen, so that leaves four spots left to fill. Ryan Pressly was the Twins’ Rule 5 draft pick earlier this winter, so he’ll need to be on the 25-man roster, but I do not think he’s a realistic candidate to stick, so he’ll either need to be returned to the Red Sox or the Twins will need to work out a trade to keep him. Casey Fien put together a nice season a year ago in 35 innings of relief, so he’s likely to have a leg up on the competition for one of the four remaining spots. Tyler Robertson is a guy that I really like, and if he can become a little more consistent strike thrower, he could slot in as the Twins’ second left-handed specialist. That’d give the Twins three left-handers in the bullpen, but with Perkins serving as the closer, I think the Twins would be willing to go that route. Alex Burnett, while he does not have great peripherals (and outside of 2012 has been a 5+ERA type reliever), probably did enough last year to earn a spot in the bullpen to start the year, but if he struggles, expect him to be one of the first players to go.
That really just leaves the Twins with one additional opening, long relief. Over the past couple of seasons that role has been filled by Anthony Swarzak. He’s performed adequately in this position, eating up innings, mopping up blow-outs, and has the arm strength to give the Twins an occasional spot start. Swarzak is 27 years-old and owns a career 5.03 ERA in more than 200 major league innings, so he is not likely to make any major improvements in 2013, and with the Twins building for the future, they may want to look elsewhere. Josh Roenicke, Tim Wood, Michael Tonkin and Caleb Thielbar are all other options on the 40-man roster that the Twins may look at during Spring Training. Roenicke started last year for the Rockies, but because the Rockies limited their starters to about 75 pitches per start, he pitched just over 88 innings last season, and could be a guy the Twins want to have on-hand as a long reliever who can be relied upon to make a spot start, especailly early in the season as Kyle Gibson and Mike Pelfrey are both coming of Tommy John surgery and may not be with the MLB club to start the year. Tim Wood pitched in AAA last season, and had good numbers for the Pirates’ affiliate, so could have a shot here as well and Terry Ryan recently said on a Rochester radio program that Tim Wood will not pitch in Rochester, so he will either be with the Twins or, as he is out of options, waived. Michael Tonkin hasn’t pitched above A-ball, and the Twins are not likely to jump him all he way to Minneapolis, so while he has a spot on the 40-man roster, Twins fans shouldn’t expect to see him any time soon. Caleb Thielbar could be an interesting option here, especially if the Twins want to see what Thielbar can do with the Twins. He split time last season between AA-New Britain and AAA-Rochester, so the Twins have a pretty good idea of what he can do against high-level talent. I’d still give the edge to Swarzak or Roenicke in this long-relief roll, but if the Twins open the year with a 4-man pitching rotation and an extra bullpen arm, Thielbar could very well be the beneficiary of that extra spot.
Not a lot to be excited about in the bullpen, but there may be some addition by subtraction as the Twins jettisoned Jeff Gray, Matt Capps and Jeff Manship from the bullpen. There should be a couple of fun battles left for Spring Training and I expect the bullpen to be better as a unit. But if the starters don’t give the bullpen a little more rest in 2013, the relievers will be over used, worn out, and ineffective before the All-Star game.
-ERolfPleiss
You eliminate the 100+ innings of Robertson, Maloney, Gray, Manship and Oliveros, you only have Swarzak (and Duensing, who was great in relief) as sub-par. Otherwise, the bullpen was the strength, far above the 9th place finish. Even Brunett and Waldrop contributed. Wood and Roeincke should be stronger than Maloney and Gray. Slama could be in the mix someday. And Perkins and Burton could split closing needs. Big pain when you lose, you don’t need a regular closer.
The Wood situation confuses me. He signs a MiLB deal (so I assume that means his agent couldn’t get him a major league deal). But then he’s added to the 40-man so he’s not taken in Rule 5 draft, which no team is going to do. Being out-of-options, now he has to clear waivers to pitch in Rochester – and he probably would – which brings me back to, ‘Why did the Twins add him to take up a valuable roster spot when the facts suggest its unnecessary to do so?’
I doubt that Slama ever pitches for the Twins. And that is disappointing because of the numbers that he’s put up in AAA. However, he was eligible to be taken in the Rule 5 draft and 29 other teams passed at an opportunity to put him on their 40 man roster. I have to believe that scouts and MLB teams know something about his stuff that will not translate to pitching in the big leagues. He’d be a great story, and I was critical of the Twins not giving him a shot last September, but after the rest of the league passed on him, hard to think they’re all making a mistake.
But the bullpen SHOULD be better in 2013, but Burton probably had his best year as a pro in 2012, so he’s likely to regress. If the starting pitching continues to struggle to get through five innings the bullpen will be overworked and guys like Wood (such a strange move by the Twins, I 100% agree) and Burnett are going to be over exposed. In a season where Twins fans are looking ahead to 2014 and beyond, I think it makes sense to give Tyler Robertson extra time to see if he can limit his walks and be the primary LOOGY of the future, and to take a closer look at Casey Fien (who although he is 29, probably has four or five productive years left in his arm). Who knows, maybe the Twins like Ryan Pressly so much they’re willing to keep him on the 25 man roster all year at the expense of some other fringy relievers.
Who knows. The more I think about the mess the Twins will have outside of Duensing, Perkins and Burton, the more questions I have.