Category Archives: Offseason

Hints of a New Twins Paradigm?

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I’m one of those people who likes to look beyond whether a decision is good or bad to determine the underlying reason a particular move was made. So while most of Twinsville spent last night debating whether the Twins’ decision to re-sign Matt Capps was good or bad (or apocolyptical), I’ve been trying to figure out WHY Terry Ryan made that decision.

I know they like Capps. I do too. I’m a little surprised more fans don’t, but fans are weird. And inconsistently hypocritical. The same fans that trash Joe Mauer for being soft and not playing through aches and pains, even if he wouldn’t have been at 100% also trash Matt Capps (and Michael Cuddyer, too, for that matter) for doing exactly that. Basically, fans apparently want players to perform at 100%+, regardless of their physical condition.

Matt Capps

But the reason the Twins are bringing back Capps can’t just be because they like his toughness and his presence in the clubhouse. Can it?

Terry Ryan has indicated he’s expecting payroll to come down considerably. He knows he has other needs to fill, so that $4.5 million he’s paying Capps is no small thing. But beyond that, Ryan is also turning his back on a supplemental draft pick. That’s not really as big a deal to me as it is to a lot of other people, but it certainly seems like the kind of thing that would be a big deal to Terry Ryan.

Ryan seems to be one of those baseball guys that loves the challenge of identifying and obtaining young talent more than just about any other phase of the game. The Twins, historically, have hoarded draft picks like they were gold. They didn’t sign Type A free agents. The didn’t often re-sign their own Type A or Type B free agents. They LOVED high draft picks.

Until now.

During a pre-Winter Meetings chat with local media, Ryan was asked about whether a compensatory pick was a consideration as they pursued deals with Capps, Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer. I was struck at the time by how un-Twinslike his response was. “We’ll take it, but we’d rather have the player.”

I’ve seen that quote in two different reliable sources (Phil Mackey and LaVelle E. Neal III) now, so I have no reason to question its accuracy. Questioning whether the ghost of George Steinbrenner has taken over Terry Ryan’s body has remained a viable option, however.

When the Twins no longer are as concerned about high draft picks when determining whether or not to sign a player who isn’t a superstar, something has changed.

As I skimmed through our blogroll this morning to read what those fine Twins bloggers had written overnight about the Capps deal, I think I may have found at least one possible answer. At least it makes more sense to me than anything else I’ve considered.

Over at Baseball Outsider, Edward Thoma wrote:

“I don’t believe for a moment that the Twins don’t take the value of compensation picks into serious consideration. Their historic reluctance to give up first round picks to sign Type A free agents is evidence of that.

“But I wonder if they are uncertain today of the real value of those picks under the new labor agreement and the formalized, enforceable restrictions on spending. I haven’t seen any explanation of how the spending ceilings are to be set, but if the ceilings are too low, it may be difficult to get high school prospects to sign— which will push teams to overdraft collegians and thin out the quality choices by the time the sandwich picks come up.

“If that’s a realistic possibility, then Ryan has a good point about preferring the player to the pick. Draft picks are hardly a sure thing.”

It makes some sense when you think about it. If the new bonus ceilings are low enough that teams are going to be reluctant to draft high school players in the first round and risk having them decide to go to college instead of playing Rookie Ball, it won’t take long before the best college players are off the board. That could leave teams with supplemental round picks having to decide between choosing from the college leftovers that in prior years would have been 2nd and 3rd rounders, HS players that you can no longer offer “above slot” money to, and HS players that you think are “signable” (who also probably would have been lower round picks in previous years).

So, if you’re the Twins, you have to be asking yourself just how good the prospect is that you’re losing by signing one of your own free agents. It’s impossible to know for sure, but it doesn’t take a lot of imagination to foresee that the quality of those supplemental round picks could take a nosedive under the new system.

Which brings us back to the original point. Is it possible that the Twins have given more thought to this possibility than fans have? Is it possible that Terry Ryan knows more than we do? And if high draft picks turn out to be less likely to turn in to contributing Major League players (and it’s not like it’s a guarantee already), is it possible that this is evidence of a significant shift in Twins philosophy?

I, for one, am willing to admit that it’s not only possible, but likely, that Ryan is smarter than we are. The rest, only time will tell.

In the end, none of us will know for a while whether the Capps deal turns out to be a good one. By spring, we’ll know if he’s healthy. By draft day, we’ll know what the compensation pick would have been like, and by this time next year we’ll know if it all worked out.

For now, we just see how Day 2 of the Winter Meetings plays out. It seems it’s starting with a small bang as Kevin Slowey has been traded to the Rockies for the infamous “player to be named later.” In other words, the Twins cleared a roster spot and are in no hurry to fill it.

Best of luck to Slowey. I hope he finds success in Colorado.

– JC

Winter Meetings Chat: Day 1 (7:00-9:00 pm)

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As promised, we’re opening up our live Chat window for a couple of hours tonight (beginning at 7 pm CT) and plan to do the same throughout this week’s MLB Winter Meetings.

Everyone who’s anyone in professional baseball (and a few hundred people who, frankly, aren’t anyone in professional baseball, but would like to be) are buzzing around the Hilton Anatole Hotel in Dallas this week and we’re going to try to keep up with whatever business gets accomplished (it has to be difficult to concentrate on work with a Medieval Times dinner tournament right next door, doesn’t it?).

When we’ve wrapped up our chat here, we suggest you move over to the podcast being broadcast by Seth Stohs and Jack Steal over at their Blogspot Radio site, beginning at 9 pm every night during the Winter Meetings.

Just to give us some ideas for discussion, here’s a brief rundown of some of the news items coming out of Dallas on Day 1:

  • Starting with the latest news first, it finally happened… after all the conjecture, the Twins did in fact come to an agreement to re-sign Matt Capps. Capps gets a one year deal with an option. I’m sure the details will be coming out soon. UPDATE: The deal is $4.5 million for 2012 and an option for $6 million in 2013 with a $250K buyout. Makes it a guarantee of one year and $4.75 million. That’s overpaying a little, but not worth all the crying about it going on elsewhere. If he performs at career averages, it’s fine… and better than shelling out $7-8 million for a “closer”.
  • The day started out with the bad news that both Jim Kaat and Tony Oliva failed to garner the necessary 12 votes to be elected to the Hall of Fame by the “golden era” veterans’ committee. Kaat was 2 votes short and Oliva fell 4 short. Only former Cub Ron Santo was elected. I suppose that was to be expected, but it’s disappointing, nonetheless.
  • It’s hard to tell information from misinformation during these meetings, since it’s become important for GMs and agents to use misdirection to keep other parties as uncertain as possible concerning their true intentions. That means that today’s “rumor” that the Twins may be likely to re-sign Michael Cuddyer for a more modest contract (in years, if not dollars) than previously assumed could be either an indication that Cuddy is on the verge of remaining a Twin or that someone is just trying to give that impression.
  • The Twins reportedly are one of nine teams that have “made a call” regarding OF Josh Willingham. Reports indicate the Twins have set up a meeting with his agent for Thursday, unless the Twins sign Cuddyer before then.
  • Conjecture is that the Twins are still interested in Edwin Jackson, however he’s not likely to sign until the market has been set by CJ Wilson and/or Mark Buehrle. Waiting is probably fine with the Twins, since they’re still waiting on a Cuddyer decision and whatever slim chance there is that they’d open the wallet for Jackson would disappear if Cuddyer is re-signed.
  • Parker Hageman, at Over The Baggy, does a good job of explaining why the Twins might be interested in pitcher Jeff Francis. That said, the Pirates and Mariners are now talking to Francis’ agent, as well, and I sure wouldn’t want to see the Twins get in a bidding war for him.
  • Another report has the Twins inquiring with the Rangers about the availability of OF David Murphy. He’s not a bad ballplayer but I’m just not sure that adding yet another left handed hitter is the best idea. If this deal happens, then I’ll be very surprised if it isn’t followed with another trade of either Revere or Span.
  • The Twins did claim shortstop Pedro Florimon from the Orioles. 24 yo switch-hitter hit with a little pop at AA Bowie but not much at all in a short cup of coffee with the O’s. The Twins added him to their Major League roster, filling the 39th spot and leaving one spot open for a Major Leaguer the Twins trade for (or player they pick up in the Rule V draft) before they would have to start making corresponding roster moves to clear spots for other acquisitions. Our friend Thrylos provides some details about Florimon over at The Tenth Inning Stretch.
  • ESPNDeportes reported that the Twins are one of five teams interested in Carlos Guillen. Going to have to take someone’s word for that since I don’t speak Spanish.
  • Later in the afternoon, we heard that the Twins, Nationals, Marlins and Rangers are “in on” Mark Buehrle, but that the Twins’ offer isn’t as strong as the offers from from the other three teams (now THERE’s a surprise, right?).
  • One interesting comment coming out of the Twins’ late afternoon session with the media came from ESPN1500’s Phil Mackey who Tweeted “I asked Terry how much #Twins consider draft compensation w/ FA decisions: “Not that much. We’ll take it. But we’d rather have the player.”

Considering how quiet the Twins usually are during the Winter Meetings, that’s an awful lot of stuff to chat about tonight!

– JC

Sunday Morning Comic Relief

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well… not QUITE morning anymore but it’s the habit…

 

So are you desperate for ANY kind of baseball at this point of the off-season? I know a few people who will admit to that honestly.  If you’re one of them, feel free to join Knuckleballs for Winter Meeting Chats this week! We’ll be putting up live chats every evening to talk about baseball news in general and any Twins-related nuggets that might filter out (don’t count on it) from 7-9pm starting Monday during the Winter Meetings.

See you tomorrow!

One Small Step For Mauer

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The Redeemer lives!

Yeah, that’s a little too close to sacrilege for my taste, but I couldn’t resist.

This is what happens when it’s a slow news day over at Target Field. After a workout Friday, Joe Mauer called a little bit of an impromptu news conference to set the public record straight about his health, both physical and mental, and his plans for leading the Twins on the road back to relevancy. The next thing you know, the social media sites are buzzing all over the place!

Then, over the course of the afternoon and evening, reporters from various media outlets posted quotes from St. Joe. Here are a few samples culled from articles authored by LaVelle E. Neal III at the Star-Tribune and John Shipley at the Pioneer-Press and Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com and Phil Mackey of 1500 ESPNRadio.

“Here I am. I’m healthy. I’m happy,” Mauer said. “I can rule out crazy things I’ve heard like Lyme disease, Lou Gehrig’s disease, rheumatoid arthritis, lupus. I think we’ve heard it all. I don’t have any of those things.”

“I’m getting really excited for next season,” he said. “I’ve recovered from pneumonia. I think you might be able to tell I’ve got my weight back. I’ve been working out for a couple of weeks. … Everything looks good, and I should be ready to go Day 1 of camp.”

In response to a question about whether it bothered him that some people considered him “soft” and questioned his willingness to play through injuries, Mauer responded: “At times. I think what surprised me a lot was a couple things out there questioning my work ethic, and that bugged me a little bit because I think guys who have been around know how hard I work and how much time I put into what I do,” he said. “So that’s one thing that frustrated me a little bit.”

“I don’t think anybody took it harder than me,” Mauer said of 2011. “That’s the thing. I was not a happy person last year. I was angry. I was frustrated, ultimately because I couldn’t get out on the field and help my team. It’s not a fun feeling coming to the park knowing you’re not feeling good and that you’re trying to battle every day doing the best you can.”

“I don’t think anyone has higher expectations than myself,” Mauer said. “Obviously my biggest goal coming into 2012 is just to stay healthy. I think when I’m on the field things will take care of itself.”

He said he would have done many things differently. Primarily, he said, he should have been more forthcoming about what he was going through.

“I just feel that, and I’ve told people in the organization this, if I’m not out there playing, the fans should know why,” he said. “People are going to have their own opinions, and you can’t control that. As long as the organization, my family, my friends and the fans know what’s going on, that’s what’s important to me. You can’t control what someone thinks.”

“I think the biggest thing is how often we’ve been winning,” he said. “We’ve been in the playoffs quite a bit since I’ve been here. Yeah, people look at (my salary) and things like that, and, like I said, you can’t worry about what people think.

“People are going to have their own opinions, but I think why people were so frustrated last year is that we’ve been to the playoffs quite a bit the last few years, and we weren’t a playoff team last year.”

Mauer said he accepts his role as a team leader, and toward that end has been in touch with free agent Michael Cuddyer about re-signing with the team. He’s checked in with Denard Span, who told him he’s feeling good after missing a large part of last season because of postconcussion syndrome. He had dinner last week with Justin Morneau.

“I told Terry and everybody here that I’m here to do everything I can to help out,” Mauer said. “I want to be part of the solution that gets us back to where we need to get to.”

“I’m excited,” he said. “I feel good. Just getting after it in the gym. Once January comes around, more baseball activities. Throwing hitting, things like that. And it’s exciting.”

“I think, obviously, getting guys healthy will help,” Mauer said. “Having a Justin Morneau, having a Denard Span and myself, those are three pretty good players right there. Seeing [closer Joe] Nathan go, I mean that’s a great player right there, too, and a great guy. What we have in this clubhouse, I mean, it’s not a 99-loss team. I can tell you that right now.”

Despite his comments to the contrary, I think it’s pretty clear that Mauer DOES care what people say and think about him. And he should, if for no other reason than you don’t see a lot of athletes with a “soft” reputation getting big money for endorsements. That’s not the image Gatorade wants to be associated with.

I know I’ve been a bit rough on Joe Mauer myself at times (arguably, as recently as the post on Thursday), but my take on his comments is that they reflect a step… perhaps a small step… in the right direction by Mauer.

In short, he’s doing the things we should want him doing. He’s talking straight about how disappointing 2011 was for the team and for him personally and how he should have done things differently, starting with being more forthcoming about his health and injury situations. He’s getting his health in order. He’s getting his weight and strength built up. He even appears to be ready and willing to step up and help the organization recruit free agents, whether their own, such as Cuddyer, or any others that Terry Ryan may be trying to bring in.

In other words, he appears to be stepping up the way you’d like to see a team leader do. I’d say he did well on Friday.

I don’t think that comes particularly natural to Mauer and maybe that’s why I found his effort Friday to be encouraging. He seemed to be recognizing that he needed to step outside his comfort zone.

Here’s hoping we see more of this kind of leadership and accountability from him as the 2012 season draws nearer.

– JC

M&M: Time to Step Up or Shut Up

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I’ve grown tired of complaining about the Twins’ stated plans to slash payroll by over 10% and that’s probably indicative that anyone who stops by here from time to time is probably tired of reading those complaints. It’s not like the Twins front office is going to bother explaining their thinking to a blogger and the “traditional media” seems uninterested in asking for justification from the Twins. 

GM Jim Crikket (image: clkr.com)

So, I’m going to do what I usually do when I can’t get anyone to answer my questions. I’m going to assume the role of a person who knows the answer and provide it myself. In that vein, then, here is what I believe to be our blog’s first exclusive interview… with “GM” Jim Crikket.

Knuckleballs: Mr. Crikket, thank you for taking time out of your busy day to talk to us. We know you’ve got the Winter Meetings coming up in Dallas and you certainly have a lot of work to do to prepare.

GM Jim Crikket: I’m glad to have the opportunity and actually there isn’t a whole lot of preparation necessary for the Winter Meetings. It’s not like we’re going to actually do any work there. May go check out the JFK Museum in the old School Book Depository.

Knuckleballs: Um. OK. So that means we shouldn’t expect the Twins to be making any big deals at the Winter Meetings swap meet?

GM JC: Oh the swap meet? Sure! There’s a HUGE swap meet over at a place across the street from Love Field. It’s like a giant indoor flea market. Now that you mention it, that may be better than the JFK Museum.

Knuckleballs: Mr. Crikket, Twins fans all over have been asking why the front office is imposing a significantly reduced payroll for 2012. Can you explain the reasoning?

GM JC: I’m glad to get this opportunity to do just that. I had been hoping someone in the media would ask the question so we could get the facts out there, but all they seem to ask about is whether we’re talking to Michael Cuddyer.

Knuckleballs: So, why cut payroll?

GM JC: The simple answer is, because we expect revenues to drop.

Knuckleballs: Yes, Twins president, Dave St. Peter, Tweeted something to that effect, but didn’t specify what revenues or how much they’ll drop.

GM JC: I think he did provide those details, but that darn 140 character limit might have cut that part out. Anyway… here’s the bottom line:

We don’t think three million people will show up to watch a bad baseball team… or at least they won’t do that two years in a row. Season ticket sales may stay high, but if people don’t actually attend the games all season long, they don’t buy $8 beer or $10 sandwiches and they certainly won’t be buying many $125 jerseys with the names of players who don’t even play very often. That stuff adds up.

Knuckleballs: You’re referring to Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau?

GM JC: Yes… and Denard Span and Scott Baker and Francisco Liriano and that shortstop from Japan who’s name I haven’t figured out how to pronounce yet. Pretty much everyone but Pavano. That guy can be a bit of a prick but at least he shows up for work every day.

Knuckleballs: So you don’t think the unusual amount of time Twins players spent on the DL in 2011 was just a fluke?

GM JC: It might have been. Then again, who knows?

Knuckleballs: What DO you know?

GM JC: We know we signed a lot of guys to a lot of multi-year contracts that have made them all multi-millionaires just to play baseball and that most of them didn’t play much baseball last year. We also know we lost 99 games.

Knuckleballs: But what kind of message does it send to fans and, more importantly, to your core of players, when you decide already that you aren’t going to spend the money it might take to surround your stars with proven players?

GM JC: It should tell our fans that we at least noticed that the team sucked last season and we’re not going to spend $115 million on another team that sucks in 2012. As a matter of fact, it should tell our “stars” the same thing.

Knuckleballs: Won’t guys like Mauer and Morneau wonder whether the front office is committed to winning?

GM JC: They might. But then again, that’s only fair, because the front office is wondering just how committed Mauer and Morneau and a few of the others, for that matter, are to winning.

Knuckleballs: You don’t think they want to win?

GM JC: Of course they want to win. Everybody wants to win. But you don’t always get everything you want. You have to do more than want it.

Look, for a bunch of guys who have a reputation for being “quiet leaders”, some of these guys have sure felt free to speak up about what they want. They wanted the trees dug up in center field because they kept them from hitting. We dug them up. That didn’t work so they wanted the “batters eye” changed. We did that and they still didn’t hit. Now they want the fences brought in, but at this point, we’re not convinced that will do anything except increase the number of home runs our pitchers give up.

When we were negotiating all these contracts, they all said they wanted to see our commitment to spending enough money on payroll to win. We did that and we got 99 losses for our efforts. It’s time for the players to show the front office that they’re going to live up to their end of the bargain.

Some of these guys talk about how they demonstrate leadership not by talking a lot but by leading on the field. That’s fine, but it’s time to start doing that.

Knuckleballs: So you’re saying the $100 million mark is a hard limit?

GM JC: I don’t believe in setting hard limits, but it’s a fair estimate of what our Opening Day payroll will be. I can say with certainty that it won’t be what the payroll is at the end of the season. There will be plenty of room to add quality players at mid-season if Mauer, Morneau and the rest have been healthy and productive the first half of the season and the team is playing well enough to be in contention.

Think about it. If our guys get off their butts and play baseball, we’ll have $15 million we can spend over the last three months of the season without exceeding 2011’s payroll. That means we could, theoretically, add rental players that are getting paid $30 million annually, since we’d only be paying them for half the season.

But if our studs sit on their asses from April through June, with weak legs and headaches and sore wrists and stiff whatevers… we’ll be looking to dump just about any player making over $1 million per year that any other team shows an interest in and we’ll start over from scratch a year from now.

But one way or another, the players who wear Twins uniforms in August and September this season will be guys who want to play baseball, not just hang around the clubhouse, wear a Big League uniform and do commercials.

Knuckleballs: Well that’s hard to argue with. Thank you for explaining the club’s position.

Yes… I know… this was nothing but a bit of fictional blogdom fantasy. But you know what? If Terry Ryan or Dave St. Peter would just come straight out and send this message to fans, I’d stand up and applaud. And I’d certainly get off their backs about the payroll.

– JC

 

Hump Day “Hmmmmm”s

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Today was hump day and here’s a rundown of a few things that made me go “hmmmmm” today.

Matt Capps

Matt Capps

There’s been a lot written in Twins blogdom about the pros and cons of re-signing Matt Capps. There’s certainly room for fair debate since Capps’ history with the Twins has been inconsistent.

But here’s what makes me go “hmmmmm”… Since the announcement that the Twins would get a supplemental round draft pick in 2012 if Capps signs elsewhere, without having to offer him arbitration, there’s been almost unanimous opinion expressed that this settles the question on the side of, “don’t bring him back.” Yet, it’s not as if giving Terry Ryan extra high draft picks to work with guarantees he’ll turn them in to productive Major Leaguers.

As Nick Nelson reminds us, in 2004 Ryan had a boatload of high picks which he turned in to shortstop Trevor Plouffe and pitchers Glen Perkins, Kyle Waldrop, Matt Fox and Jay Rainville. I’m not intending to pick on any of those players or on Ryan, but merely to remind everyone that even high draft picks face long odds against becoming productive Major Leaguers.

The bottom line is that I agree that the draft pick compensation the Twins can get for Capps does make it less likely that they re-sign him, but I’m not so certain that it should.

Twins Winter Meeting Trade Market

I opined in an earlier post that the period between now and the end of the Winter Meetings may determine the Twins’ 2012 fate. Even earlier than that, I published a couple of posts containing “blueprints” for how I would go about assembling a roster for 2012 if I were GM. In fact, November has been pretty much non-stop chatter about what Terry Ryan (and before him, Bill Smith) should do. But the more I hmmmmmm, the more I’m convinced that I know what Ryan and the Twins will do over the next two weeks.

Absolutely nothing.

He doesn’t have the money to sign a Mark Buehrle or Edwin Jackson or Josh Willingham (or even a Michael Cuddyer, though he won’t come right out and say it). Most of the second and third tier of free agents aren’t going to sign anywhere until some of the top tier start signing and establishing the market rates.

Ordinarily, Ryan could make a trade or two to free up some payroll space, but he really can’t even do that for a while. There are two times you want to make meaningful trades… one is when the player(s) you are offering are at peak value and the other is when the player(s) you are offering play positions that are in high demand compared to number of options on the market. Quick, off the top of your head, how many players does Ryan have that fit either of those criteria?

If you make a list of the players Ryan could look to trade to shed salary, almost all of them are coming off “down” years. He’d be selling low on Mauer (who has a no-trade clause anyway), Morneau, Baker, Liriano, Span, Nishioka, Blackburn, Slowey… almost every player earning more than $1 million a year. Except Carl Pavano.

Pavano might bring fair value, but it’s not going to happen within two weeks. There’s no shortage of teams who want the kind of rotation help Pavano would bring, but almost all of them still think they’re in the mix for Wilson, Buehrle, Jackson and others. Only when those players land elsewhere will teams be likely to consider trading away meaningful talent for Pavano. Ryan needs to wait until the demand for Pavano rises before even considering a trade.

“Experienced Closer”

The last thing a team with serious doubts concerning their expected competitiveness needs to do is spend more than $4-5 million for a “closer”.  If it’s a questionable use of resources to overspend for guys who have racked up “saves” when you’re a contender, then it’s insanity to do so when you probably aren’t. Hold auditions in Spring Training and if they carry over in to April, that’s fine, too.

As for the rest of the bullpen, I’m perfectly fine with not spending $2-3 million per arm to fill out the pen. I was similarly fine with that approach last off-season. It wasn’t the plan that was faulty last year, it was the execution of that plan. The problem was that the players the front office brought in were not good pitchers.

And by the way, the people who made the decisions about which pitchers to sign and invite to Spring Training were the same people in charge now. Bill Smith didn’t make those evaluations, Terry Ryan and the scouting staff did. Then Gardy and Andy decided which pitchers to take north to start the season. All of those people are still making those decisions. Just sayin’.

Anyway, I just don’t see Terry Ryan as likely to do anything any time soon. He’s just got pretty limited options right now.

Twins Hall of Fame

The Twins are lettng the fans have a say in who the next inductee(s) might be to the organization’s own Hall of Fame. It’s not clear to me how much weight the fans’ votes carry, but it doesn’t really matter because it is clear that to vote you have to broadcast your votes via Twitter or Facebook. I don’t care enough to do that.

For what it’s worth, though, I’d strongly support Camillo Pascual and Cesar Tovar for induction. Frankly, it’s rediculous that they aren’t already in. You could also make the same statement about Chuck Knoblauch if all you base the determination on is his performance on the field while he was a Twin. That said, given all that happened with Knoblauch toward the end of his time with the team and on through the disclosure of his use of steroids, I’d also be perfectly fine with not inducting him right now. Let’s face it, he wouldn’t show up for the induction anyway, so why bother? Give the honor to someone who truly would appreciate it.

Programming note:

Jack Steal (Fanatic Jack Talks Twins) has returned to Blogspot Radio and he’s asked me to be a guest on the podcast tonight (Nov 30). The podcast starts at 9:00 pm and I’m tentatively scheduled to join about 20 minutes after the hour.

Figuring out why anyone would care to listen to me is truly something to hmmmmmm about.

– JC

Two Weeks May Determine Twins’ 2012 Fate

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Now that the Twins front office has had a chance to let their Thanksgiving feasts settle, it’s time to go to work. The next two weeks should pretty much let everyone know whether the Twins will put a competitive team on the field in 2012 or whether Terry Ryan has opted to go in to full “rebuild” mode with his sights set on 2013 and beyond.

The atrium of Dallas' Hilton Anatole will be buzzing next week

MLB’s Winter Meetings kick off next Monday, but as FOX Sports’ Jon Paul Morosi indicates in his November 28 column, the week before the Winter Meetings are often just as critical as the few days the meetings are held.

Of course, this period is not traditionally a busy period for the Twins’ front office. Their reputation is one for sitting out the swap meet that the Winter Meetings can become for many teams, in favor of picking over the Free Agent leftovers after the first of the year.

Then again, it hasn’t been often that the Twins have had so many needs to fill.

Projecting a 25-man roster from the players currently holding spots on the Twins’ 40-man roster is all but impossible. It would appear, however, that Ryan currently has at least nine spots that are completely up in the air. Based on existing contractual obligations, projected salaries for arbitration-eligible players, and ownership’s contention that payroll should be slashed more than 10% to somewhere south of $100 million, the GM would appear to be heading in to this critical two-week period wearing some pretty tight financial handcuffs.

If we assume the Twins will carry 13 position players and 12 pitchers on their Opening Day roster, I count four open pitching spots and five open position spots to fill… with about $13 million with which to do so.

Mauer, Morneau, Casilla, Valencia, Carroll, Span, Nishioka and Doumit will collectively pull in just over $53 million, while leaving two starting OF spots and three bench spots yet to be filled.

The pitching corps looks like Pavano, Baker, Liriano, Blackburn, Slowey, Perkins, Duensing and Mijares. Those eight arms account for just over $32 million. Tack on the $2 million the Twins paid to buy out Joe Nathan’s 2012 option and you’ve got $34 million committed to pitching with four more spots to fill.

To my mind, this leave Terry Ryan with two current options:

  • He can spend the next two weeks making deals to shed enough of his existing contractual commitments to be able to afford to add, either through trade or free agency, an outfielder or two that can hit and a couple of pitchers who can miss bats; or
  • He can sit back and wait while those teams who expect to contend in 2012 fill out their rosters with the best players available, then sign a couple of leftovers to compete with the large group of “may or may not be ready for the Big Leagues” prospects that we all watched try to fill Twins uniforms toward the end of the 2011 season.

It’s a tough choice for the GM to make. It’s made even more dicey by the reality that the chances of the Twins being competitive, regardless of which path Ryan chooses, are going to be determined more by the health and productivity of half a dozen or so core players already wearing Twins uniforms than by the players who fill those final nine spots on the active roster.

The question we’d all like an answer to, I think, is, “what do the Twins really believe they’ll get out of Mauer, Morneau, Baker, Span, Liriano, etc.?”

So far, we’ve heard the Twins brass say they haven’t given up on fielding a competitive team in 2012. Of course, they’re still trying to sell season tickets, so they wouldn’t say anything else.

As is almost always the case, actions will speak much louder than words… and actions (or lack thereof) over the next two weeks may speak loudest of all.

– JC

Can Twins Learn From Gophers’ Challenges?

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I read with some interest this Star Tribune article concerning the University of Minnesota’s plight with regard to their athletic department funding and couldn’t help but wonder if it holds some lessons that the Twins might want to heed.

As I’m sure all of you who actually live in Minnesota are well aware, the Gophers opened their brand new TCF football stadium about a year before the Twins cut the ribbon on Target Field. You’re probably also well aware that big-time college athletic programs essentially live and die based on the revenues generated by their football programs. You can talk all you want about how great your basketball, hockey (either ice or field varieties), and wrestling programs are, but at most universities you’re lucky if any of those sports manages to just generate enough revenue to pay their own share of the bills. It’s football that pays the freight.

And as great as it is to get TV revenue and other income generated more because you happen to be affiliated with football factories like Michigan, Ohio State and, now, Nebraska, if you’re going to field competitive teams consistently, you need to have reliably high attendance at football games. That’s where the Gophers are staring at some pretty bleak realities for next season, when they’ll have exactly zero regional rivalry games on their home schedule.

The University is discovering that there’s a limited honeymoon period that comes with a new stadium. I made my first trip up to a game at TCF this fall when my Hawkeyes played there. It’s a beautiful facility. But if the Gophers don’t start doing some winning on a regular basis, and soon, it’s going to be a beautiful half-empty stadium on game days and that’s going to eventually have a negative effect on the rest of the Gopher athletic programs.

But the Twins are a different story, right? After all, the Gophers haven’t had a consistently competitive football team since Murray Warmath paced the sidelines while the Twins have been regular participants in MLB’s playoffs (the first round, anyway) for the better part of the past decade.

Many of you young whippersnappers aren’t old enough to remember the dark days of Twins baseball. Actually, there were several stretches of dark days. The last few years at Metropolitan Stadium were awfully bleak, as were most of the 1990s in the Dome. As hard as it is for us to imagine, given the crowds we’ve become accustomed to joining at Target Field the past two years, the fact is that Minnesota fans will not show up to watch bad sports teams. That doesn’t make them terribly unique, of course. Not many communities routinely sell out venues even when the local team stinks.

(I’m proud to say that Iowa’s Kinnick Stadium is one exception. We’ll just about fill that place every game day, even when the Hawkeyes are painfully difficult to watch. Then again, there really isn’t much else to do in these parts on the weekend and we’re all more than happy to have an excuse to party for a few hours with 70,000 of our closest friends.)

What’s my point? That’s a fair question.

An empty Target Field (photo: Minnesota Twins)

I guess my point is simply that the Twins shouldn’t assume that their beautiful ballpark guarantees butts filling the seats. They sold out nearly every game during a very bad 99-loss season largely because nobody expected a 99-loss season. Most of those tickets were sold when fans still believed they’d be watching a winner. Not many fans still believe that’s going to be the case in 2012.

The Twins seem to grasp this. They’re smart people and they know a bad team brings less attendance and less revenue. It’s their reaction, thus far, to this realization that troubles me.

They seem to be simply acknowledging the likelihood that fewer fans will be showing up and plan to downsize their payroll accordingly. They’ve given Terry Ryan the job of rebuilding the team and most fans, myself included, applaud that move. But if the plan is to start over… to rebuild through the draft and through acquiring other minor league talent through trades, while letting your best free agents walk away… then my applause is muted.

The Gophers have no choice but to sell “hope” as they rebuild their program from scratch. They can’t take steps to immediately field a competitive team by spending more money to get better football players. (Well, they COULD… but the NCAA tends to frown on that approach.)

But the Twins are not bound by NCAA rules, so here’s an idea… instead of running up the white flag and admitting defeat while you cut payroll, why not spend the money to become competitive again in 2012 and, in the process, keep fans filling those Target Field seats?

I know Jason Kubel isn’t the perfect fit for Target Field (though that’s the fault of design flaws, not Kubel, and those design flaws could be fixed easily if the Twins would just do it). I know Michael Cuddyer can’t hit righthanded pitching well. I know neither of them are gold glove outfielders. I know Jim Thome’s obvious limitations made it difficult to carry him on the roster. But those three players have accounted for a LOT of the Twins offense lately and the Twins seem more than happy to let them all go without showing any indication, so far, that they’ll replace them with anyone similar.

Then again, when you overpay for an aging middle infielder and a back-up catcher who has trouble catching, it doesn’t leave a lot of room to pay for guys who can actually contribute offense daily.

During the first few years after Baltimore’s Camden Yards ballpark was built, tickets were a tough thing to come by. I had friends there who were season ticket holders and I remember using that connection to get some pretty nice seats for my family on one trip there and again for the benefit of some friends who made the trip to Baltimore the following year. The stadium was sold out almost every game.

For the past several years, I’ve been able to walk up to the ticket window 10 minutes before game time and get very good seats whenever I’m in Baltimore during an Orioles home stand.

It can happen in Minnesota, too. In fact, it will happen in Minnesota… if ownership doesn’t make good on their promise of using the increased revenues to assure a competitive team occupies the new stadium and that, at the very least, they make good on their commitment to keep the best of their own free agents.

The offseason isn’t nearly over yet, so there’s still time for Terry Ryan to work his magic. But I encourage Twins fans not to let Ryan and his bosses off the hook. Don’t let them convince us to lower our expectations to fit their payroll. Don’t let them keep slashing until medocrity becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

– JC

MLB’s new “layout”

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Ok, so BIG news coming out of the owners’ meetings I guess.  I’m pretty sure it’s all part of Bud Selig’s favorite wet dream too… I can say that on the internet right? it’s a private blog? anyway…

Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images

The sale of the Houston Astros has finally been approved – on one condition: they have to move… figuratively speaking at any rate. They move from the National League to the American League West which now evens up the AL/NL league balance at 15 a piece.

Normally, my love of symetry and equality would love this! And actually, I don’t think I have a problem with the 15/15 thing and I’m one of those supposedly cursed baseball fans who LIKES interleague play anyway… it’s what goes along with this change that is kind of rubbing me the wrong way.

They are adding yet more playoff games.. at the moment it’s just a one-game Wild Card playoff (no more game 163 magic moments) but, unless I’m reading this wrong, it’s all part of adding more Wild Card teams and another round of playoffs (IMO) as part of the ever increasing “revenue opportunities” the owners are always looking for.

Shall we talk about screwing with tradition? I’m sorry but I don’t believe any part of the October Classic should be played in November. I’m already done with the playoffs WELL before they are finished because they keep extending days off in between in order to get those great playoff games on the RIGHT nights on TV.. *rolls eyes* I’m just not liking the direction that is going at all and it’s not like we haven’t seen it coming. I’m just aggravated by the ongoing assault on our time with the ever-increasing length of the baseball season.

You know I hate the off-season right? I do! But honestly, just like the Stanley Cup shouldn’t be played in June and the Superbowl shouldn’t be in February, they really need to knock this shit off.

But Congrats to the Astros on their new owner, Jim Crane, and welcome to the AL!

Will New Major League CBA Screw the Twins?

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If you’re one of those people salivating over the extra high draft picks that the Twins were going to get in return for losing free agents Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel, that salivation might be a bit premature.

The good news is that reports coming out of Milwaukee, where MLB General Managers are meeting this week, indicate that the league and the players’ union are very close to agreement on a new Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA). That means baseball fans won’t be going through the nonsense that we saw last summer with the NFL and are continuing to see with the NBA.

The bad news is that the new agreement could cost the Twins at least one of those compensatory draft picks in next year’s amateur draft… and possibly all of them.

As has been well documented by now, the Twins have three members of 2011’s roster that are classified as either Type A or Type B free agents. Under the current CBA, that means that they would receive one or two compensatory draft picks if those players sign with another team, provided the Twins offer them arbitration.

Michael Cuddyer

Cuddyer and Matt Capps both fall in to the Type A category, which would bring the Twins both a supplemental round “sandwich” pick (so named because the supplemental round is conducted between the first and second rounds of the draft) as well as either the first or second round pick of the team that player ultimately signs with (depending on that team’s record in 2011).

Kubel is a Type B free agent, which means the Twins would get one of those supplemental “sandwich” picks, but the signing team would not forfeit any of their picks to the Twins.

The conventional wisdom is that the Twins will not offer arbitration to Matt Capps because he would certainly accept it and would end up being awarded a 2012 salary that’s probably at least double what he’s likely to get on the open market. That means the Twins will get no compensatory pick for Capps.

But the Twins certainly would be planning to offer arbitration to both Cuddyer and Kubel.

Media reports, including one from NY Post columnist Joel Sherman, indicate that the owners may have traded away much, if not all, of the free agent compensation system during CBA negotiations in order to rein in the escalating salaries of draft picks AND that the changes to the system may take effect this offseason.

Would owners really change the rules in the middle of the offseason? To get what they want in terms of restricting salaries for unproven draft picks… absolutely. A formal announcement of the terms of the agreement could come yet this week.

Sherman’s sources tell him that the compensation program for the top Type A free agents (such as the Mets’ Jose Reyes) would not be changed, but that Type B compensation would end effective with the current offseason. Other media reports indicate that the new agreement will reduce the percentage (currently 20%) of players at each position that constitute the Type A category, as well.

Jason Kubel

If these reports turn out to be accurate, it means the Twins: (a) would get no compensation for losing Jason Kubel; and (b) COULD end up getting no compensation for Michael Cuddyer, either, if his ranking by Elias falls below whatever the newly negotiated cut-off line is for Type A players in the American League 1B-DH-OF category.

If you were hoping the three supplemental picks were going to go a long way toward helping Terry Ryan boost the organization’s minor league talent level sooner, rather than later, this turn of events is not good news.

If you’re the Twins GM, would the lack of compensation for losing Kubel and Cuddyer make you more likely to consider re-signing either or both?

– JC