Obligatory MLB Draft Day Post

To a certain small degree (very small, actually), I find the discussions about the MLB draft entertaining. Sure, it will be mildly interesting to see who the Twins draft with the #2 pick overall tonight in the first round of this year’s Amateur Draft and it will be much more entertaining to read the inevitable explosion of comments from the self-anointed “experts” in online Twinsville, all telling us how badly the Twins screwed up with their pick.

But, frankly, I just don’t care that much who they pick. Make that, I just don’t care AT ALL who they pick. Once the pick is made and the young man, whoever it is, signs with the Twins, then I’ll be interested in following his progress within the organization’s minor league system.

But all the people who are going on and on about how this pick is some kind of turning point for the organization or how they need to be drafting the next “face of the franchise” need to just take a chill pill. The MLB draft is a lot like playing roulette. There is absolutely no certainty that any specific draft pick will eventually even play in the Majors, much less become a star.

The first round is comparable to picking red or black on the roulette wheel. At best, you’ve got just below a 50-50 shot at your choice being a winner. After that, it becomes more like putting your money on increasingly smaller groups of numbers, making your odds longer and longer, until you get to the point where your chances of hitting on a late round pick are worse than just putting your hard-earned money on a single number on the wheel.

In fact, despite the draft going 50 rounds prior to this season, when it’s been cut to 40, you seem to see just about as many non-drafted players beating the odds as you do guys who were drafted pretty much anywhere outside the top few rounds.

For a case in point, let’s take a look at a couple of young pitchers that Twins fans may recognize.

Pitcher A was drafted not once, but twice. He was drafted in the 20th round by the Dodgers out of high school in 2006, but opted to pitch for a big-time college program. In 2009, he was drafted in the second round by the Twins.

Pitcher B is a year older than pitcher A, but was never drafted. After pitching for Binghamton University in NY, he signed a contract with Atlanta after his junior year of college in 2008. Just before the opening of the 2011 season, this young pitcher was traded to the Twins for Pitcher A.

Today, Pitcher A is sporting a not-too-nifty 1.714 WHIP for the Braves’ AA team in Mississippi, where he’s giving up 7.7 hits per nine innings and is walking an identical 7.7 batters per 9… which is actually more hitters than he’s striking out in each nine innings of work.

Sunday, Pitcher B pitched seven strong innings for the Twins without giving up any earned runs, dropping his ERA to below two earned runs per nine innings. His WHIP is 1.190 and while he’s giving up a few more hits than we might like to see (9.8 per 9 IP), he’s walking less than one hitter per 9. 

Scott Diamond (Photo: Genevieve Ross/AP)

By now, pretty much everyone still bothering to read this knows I’m writing about Scott Diamond, who the Twins acquired in the Rule 5 draft before the 2011 season and subsequently traded second round draft pick Billy Bullock to the Braves for, in order to be able to send Diamond to the minors before the 2011 season started.

It’s still far too soon to tell what the future holds for these two young pitchers’ careers. Diamond is still 25 for a few weeks and Bullock turned just 24 earlier this year. They’re still young enough for us to debate “ceilings” and “potential” if we want to get in to a discussion about whether the trade was good or bad.

Billy Bullock (Photo: Tim Casey/GatorCountry.com)

It could also be argued that I’ve cherry-picked a bit to make this comparison… that there are just as many examples (and probably many more) available that would demonstrate that high draft picks are much more likely to contribute at the Major League level than players who were never drafted. I’ll plead guilty to the cherry-picking, too.

But my point is simply this… go ahead and follow the MLB draft tonight and over the next few days and feel free to express your views about how the Twins coulda-shoulda-woulda been better off drafting this guy over that guy. But realize that in the grand scheme of things, nobody has a friggin clue who the “right” picks are… and we won’t find out for years.

But hey, if you’re one of those people who really don’t mind watching the little silver ball go round and round the roulette wheel for 3-4 years before it lands, knock yourself out!

– JC

GameChat – Minnesota @ Cleveland #3, 2:05pm

I think it says an awful lot about our young pitchers (ie PJ & Diamond) that I look forward to their starts a whole lot more than I do our veteran guys.. I think it would be great to take another series – this one in the division. Whether or not we really have a chance to be competitive in ANY thing this year, even the weak ass Central Div, I really enjoy the GAMES we play when we win..

So what I think I really mean is – winning is fun, let’s do it.

Minnesota

@

Cleveland
Span, CF Choo, RF
Revere, RF Kipnis, 2B
Mauer, DH Cabrera, A, SS
Willingham, LF Lopez, Jo, 3B
Morneau, 1B Brantley, CF
Doumit, C Duncan, DH
Dozier, SS LaPorta, 1B
Plouffe, 3B Cunningham, LF
Casilla, A, 2B Marson, C
  Diamond, P   Masterson, P

 

  1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E
Minnesota 1 0 1 1 0 0 2 1 0 6 11 3
Cleveland 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 0 3 9 1

As Babs said above, winning really is fun… so much more fun than losing… and when the wins come against divisional rivals, that’s even better. The Twins won 6-3 and, in the process, took two of three games to claim the road series at Cleveland. I have to say THIS is was the kind of baseball I was hoping to see more of when the season opened. Guys did what it took to get on base, took extra bases, move runners over and drove runs in when the opportunity presented itself to do so.

Yes, there were more errors than we’d like to see and the starting pitcher wasn’t exactly one that many of us expected to be relying upon when the season started, but since pretty much every member of the expected rotation has failed in their roles so far, I’ll take a good start out of pretty much anyone. We will have to hold our breath a little bit to find out how Joe Mauer’s injury is. He reportedly sprained his right thumb late in the game and is “day to day.”

There were several good performances today. Josh Willingham, Brian Dozier and Trevor Plouffe all had multi-hit games and Glen Perkins & Matt Capps shut out the Tribe for an inning each out of the bullpen. But today’s Boyfriend of the Day is starting pitcher Scott Diamond. He not only gave the Twins a Quality Start by giving up just three runs in seven innings of work, but exactly ZERO of those runs were earned, lowering his ERA to just 1.86. – JC

Scott Diamond

 

GameChat – Twins @ Indians #2, 6:10 pm

Let’s see of PJ Walters can keep up the good work he’s been doing since arriving in Minnesota. The Twins are going to need all the pitching help they can get, as it appears that Carl Pavano could be headed to a stay on the Disabled List.

TWINS

@

INDIANS
Span, CF Choo, RF
Revere, RF Kipnis, 2B
Mauer, C Cabrera, A, SS
Willingham, LF Lopez, Jo, DH
Morneau, 1B Brantley, CF
Doumit, DH Kotchman, 1B
Dozier, SS Damon, LF
Plouffe, 3B Chisenhall, 3B
Carroll, 2B Marson, C
  _Walters, P   _Tomlin, P
  1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E
Minnesota 4 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 7 12 0
Cleveland 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 4 9 0

Whew. The Twins finally get a win this season over the Tribe. Scoring four runs in the first inning was a great start, but PJ Walters couldn’t hold that lead and it was all tied up after five innings. Fortunately, the Twins weren’t done scoring, while their bullpen successfully shut out Cleveland over the final four innings.

The BOD award came down to a split vote, so tonight we have three winners sharing the award. Brian Duensing relieved Walters with two out in the fifth and kept the inherited baserunners from crossing the plate and went on to pitch 2 perfect innings. On the offensive side, Trevor Plouffe and Joe Mauer not only both homered, but also each drove in three of the Twins’ 7 runs. For their efforts, Brian, Trevor and Joe are our Boyfriends of the Day.

Brain Duensing
Joe Mauer
Trevor Plouffe

 

GameChat – Minnesota @ Cleveland, 6:05pm

Sorry for the late arrival of the chat folks.. apparently all the Knuckleballs staff was out having a life…

Minnesota

@

Cleveland
Span, CF Choo, RF
Revere, RF Kipnis, 2B
Mauer, DH Cabrera, A, SS
Willingham, LF Lopez, Jo, DH
Morneau, 1B Brantley, CF
Doumit, C Kotchman, 1B
Dozier, SS Damon, LF
Casilla, A, 2B Chisenhall, 3B
Carroll, 3B Marson, C
  Pavano, P   Lowe, D, P

 

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

R

H

E

Minnesota

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

0

1

6

1

Cleveland

0

2

1

4

0

0

0

0

x

7

14

2

Well that sucked… Most people I know smartly went over and watched Johan pitch the Met’s first No Hitter instead.. Carl just didn’t have the ability to keep bats from finding his pitches tonight. No one else really to blame here..

Stop With the Premature Trade Talk Already

I know Twins fans aren’t quite accustomed to dealing with having their team be uncompetitive right out of the gate, but that’s no excuse for being rediculously stupid.

It seems like some folks just don’t know how to enjoy the rare good performance when they see one. No, it has to be immediately followed by, “Let’s trade him!”

Justin Morneau

Justin Morneau’s wrist is feeling good and he’s hitting the ball well! Let’s trade him NOW!

Ryan Doumit’s had some clutch hits! He should be traded while he’s hot!

Denard Span is getting on base and playing a decent center field! Trade him for a boatload of pitchers, right now!

Josh Willingham hit a walkoff home run! It’s time to trade him, NOW!

Listen carefully, please… May 30 is never “the time” for a non-contending team to trade productive veteran players for prospects. Why? Because Major League GMs are not idiots… in May. They aren’t going to see one home run in May and think, “Wow. I want that guy and I’ll trade away my best pitching prospect to get him!”  At least not for another several weeks.

Ryan Doumit

Should Twins General Manager Terry Ryan be listening to offers for most of his productive veterans? Absolutely. There’s nobody on this roster that should be “off limits” right now. Some of the contracts may make certain players (that would be you, Mr. Mauer) untradeable for all practical purposes, but that doesn’t mean Ryan shouldn’t listen if a fellow GM thinks he has an idea that would work.

But May 30 is for listening… for determining which teams might have interest in certain players… but not for trading.

Frankly, nobody is desperate (read: stupid) enough to give enough in return, yet.

The Red Sox, Tigers and Angels are off to slow starts, but they are far from being desperate… yet. The Indians and Orioles, although finding themselves in better positions than they perhaps expected heading in to the season, still have some holes to fill. But they are far from desperate… yet.

It’s desperation that makes for unequal trades and we all know that fans… Twins fans in particular, it seems… tend to overvalue their players and thus expect more for them in return for a trade than other teams are likely to be willing to give up. There is simply no trade Ryan could make on May 30 that would make anyone in Twinsville happy, unless it happened to involve a player that a particular fan has some screwy personal grudge against.

First, you have to at least get past the upcoming draft. Until then, neither the Twins nor potential trading partners know for sure what their respective organizatinal needs are, nor where they have sufficient depth to afford the luxury of trading away a decent prospect or two.

Perhaps more than any other professional draft, the MLB draft is a crapshoot. Players can’t be counted on to make an immediate impact at the Major League level and, in fact, they can’t really be counted on to ever play Big League ball. So, despite all the fan chatter about how teams need to draft pitching or power hitting or speed because of the perception that the organization’s current MLB roster is short on that particular talent, teams almost always draft what they believe is the “best player available” when their turn comes around. You simply don’t know with any level of certainty what your organization’s needs will be by the time a particular kid is ready to play Big League baseball.

As a result, it’s only after the draft is over that you can judge with any precision what kind of talents you should be targeting in the trade market… and it’s only after the draft is over that you or potential trade partners can accurately judge which talents they may have a surplus of and can thus afford to send off in a trade.

That’s when phone lines between GMs start to warm up.

Denard Span

Even then, real interest doesn’t often reveal itself until July rolls around and desperation doesn’t kick in until later that month. That’s when teams convince themselves that they need a toolsy lead-off hitting center fielder or a versatile switch-hitting back up catcher with a little pop, especially if they’ve got team-friendly contracts.

For guys with big contracts, the “time” to trade them might not come around until August, after the non-waiver deadline passes. That’s when desperation really sets in and teams become willing to take on big contracts and overpay in prospects, if they think the guy could help them bring home some sort of championship this year.

I think we all understand the reality of 2012. Every GM in baseball will have Terry Ryan on speed dial and Ryan is going to make some deals. I don’t especially like that, but it’s the reality that comes with being an underperforming last place team. But that doesn’t mean I want him giving away every veteran on the ballclub without getting guys who are pretty damn close to being Major League ready in return.

Some people may be willing and even eager to ship current players off for a couple of “organization players” who will never be more than roster fillers for Rochester or New Britain (or whoever next year’s AAA and AA Twins affiliates are). I am not one of those people.

I want… I expect… to see a much better product on the field next season and if Ryan can’t get players in trade that should be expected to contribute to this team being more competitive in 2013, then I’d just as soon see the Spans, Doumits, Morneaus and Willinghams still wearing Twins uniforms next year.

And nobody is offering that level of talent, especially the potential top of the rotation pitching talent the team desperately needs most, on May 30.

So how about we just stop with the, “Twins need to trade so-and-so right now,” crap? No, they don’t.

– JC

(All photos: Jim Crikket, Knuckleballs)

GameChat – A’s @ Twins #3, 12:10pm

So we have already won the series – in dramatic fashion no less – but I would LOVE a real series win that might involve brooms in one form or another.. what about you?

Of course, today is the return of Liriano to the starting rotation – for however long – and I have to admit that I don’t have a lot of confidence in that…

Oakland

@

Minnesota
Weeks, 2B Span, CF
Cowgill, LF Revere, RF
Reddick, RF Mauer, DH
Gomes, J, DH Willingham, LF
Donaldson, 3B Morneau, 1B
Suzuki, K, C Dozier, SS
Barton, 1B Casilla, A, 2B
Crisp, CF Butera, C
Pennington, SS Carroll, 3B
  Ross, T, P   Liriano, P

 

  1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E
Oakland 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0
Minnesota 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 x 4 6 0

That, ladies and gents, is what they call a sweep!

I know it’s not something Twins fans are too familiar with (at least from the sweeper, point of view) and granted that the A’s are not exactly the ’27 Yankees, but it still feels pretty damn good.

I was good to see Josh Willingham send yet another ball deep to left field and he could make an argument for a second consecutive Boyfriend of the Day award. Alex Burnett and Jeff Gray combined for three innings of no-hit (and more importantly, no-run) relief, so they earn themselves some fancy desserts, as well.

But “the Franchise” version of Francisco Liriano made his first appearance of the season in this game, throwing six shutout innings, giving up just three hits, while walking only two hitters and striking out nine Athletics! That’s the Frankie we’ve been waiting to see and we hope to see a lot more of him in comings weeks. It’s certainly the BOD version!

Francisco Liriano

GameChat – Athletics @ Twins #2, 7:10 pm

First, I would like to thank the Twins very much for that lovely win as a present for my birthday yesterday. However, I would also like to remind them as I turned 40, the whole year needs a bit of lifting I’d think. My request is merely that they win more often than they did last year as a way to celebrate my 40th year!

I think a good start would be to give young Mr. DeVries a bit better support in his second start than they did for his first.

Oakland

@

Minnesota
Weeks, 2B Span, CF
Cowgill, LF Revere, RF
Reddick, RF Mauer, DH
Smith, S, DH Willingham, LF
Inge, 3B Morneau, 1B
Ka’aihue, 1B Doumit, C
Suzuki, K, C Dozier, SS
Crisp, CF Plouffe, 3B
Pennington, SS Casilla, A, 2B
  Parker, J, P   De Vries, P

 

  1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E
Oakland 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 2 7 2
Minnesota 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 7 0

Nothing like taking as long as absolutely possible before getting the game-winner, right? Cole DeVries walked a few more guys than I’d like to see, but he did OK for his second start as a Big Leaguer. The bullpen was less than perfect, but they kept the game close. Then in the 9th, a single here, a walk there, a very poor bunt attempt on top of those, and a fielders choice led up to one mighty swing of the bat by Josh Willingham. That game winning 3 run HR with 2 out in the bottom of the ninth gave the Twins their first walkoff win of the season… and earned Willie the BOD award. – JC

Josh Willingham

GameChat – Oakland Athletics @ Minnesota Twins 1:10pm

Happy Memorial Day, Twins fans.

For me, Memorial Day weekend was always a time when our family went on a camping trip.  In the last three years I have been camping about 15 times.  Mostly overnight trips, but a few week long adventures in the boundary waters.  I just love camping.  Something about spending time in the woods, sleeping in a tent and cooking food with a fire that really excites me.  But here’s the thing, those last 15 times I have been camping, it has rained EVERY TIME.  Not just passing showers or an occasional drizzle.  I’m talking about wind and thunder and lightening and everything.  I tell people that if they need rain all they have to do is invite me on a camping trip.  And that has me thinking about the Twins.

Despite the Twins’ tough early schedule it seemed like the Twins were catching a lot of teams while they were down.  Twins played the Red Sox and Yankees and Angels and the Tigers this season and each team was struggling to string together stretches of good solid baseball.  Enter the Twins.  It seems like every time one of the Twins’ opponents really needs to turn things around the Twins are more than happy to do it.  So MLB owners, if your team is struggling, all you have to do is invite the Twins to town.

Oakland was 22-21 before their current 5 game losing streak, perfect time for them to visit Minnesota…

Here are the line ups for the Twins and Athletics:

Oakland Athletics

@

Minnesota Twins
Weeks, 2B Span, CF
Crisp, CF Mastroianni, RF
Reddick, RF Mauer, C
Gomes, J, DH Willingham, LF
Inge, 3B Morneau, 1B
Suzuki, K, C Doumit, DH
Ka’aihue, 1B Dozier, SS
Cowgill, LF Plouffe, 3B
Rosales, SS Casilla, A, 2B
_Blackley, T, P _Diamond, P

 

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E
Oakland 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 4 10 1
Minnesota 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 2 x 5 6 2

How about that, a Twins win!  What a great birthday present for our very own CapitalBabs!  Happy birthday, Babs, hope you enjoyed that one as much as the rest of us.

Serious Boyfriend of the Day material! (Photo: Craig Lassig/AP)

Scott Diamnd pitched pretty well through the first 6 innings before running into trouble in the 7th and being lifted after just one out.  The bullpen gave up a run in the 8th but the Twins battled back with two runs in the bottom of the 8th thanks to a Justin Morneau double that scored Joe Mauer and a sac fly from Ryan Doumit to score Josh Willingham.

For his RBI double Morneau is today’s BOD.  What a swell guy.

-ERolfPleiss

Remembering

I’m ripping this off from a Memorial Day post that CapitalBabs put up two years ago, but it pretty much says all that needs to be said today.

As we remember those who have given “the last full measure of devotion” in service to our country, let’s pause to thank all who have put their lives at risk serving our country, both abroad and at home, along with their families.

… The world will little note, nor long remember what we say here, but it can never forget what they did here. It is for us the living, rather, to be dedicated here to the unfinished work which they who fought here have thus far so nobly advanced. It is rather for us to be here dedicated to the great task remaining before us — that from these honored dead we take increased devotion to that cause for which they gave the last full measure of devotion … 

Abraham Lincoln, Gettysburg Address