As we begin to wind down what has been a really exciting season of Twins baseball (regardless of how the post-season plays out), one of the fun exercises to go through is to think back to March and April and try to recall what our expectations were for the season. The problem is, someone of such advanced age as myself occasionally has trouble remembering where he parked his car the night before, much less recalling what was going through his mind over six months ago.
Fortunately, it turns out that someone in the Twins blogdom community organized a “Predection Day” back before the season started. The idea was to have all the Twins blogs post their predictions for the season, in a number of given categories, on the same day. Well, we were a little bit late with our predictions (hey, we were kinda new to this blog thing back in April… it’s a miracle we ever got anything posted at all), but back on April 5, we posted the official Knuckleballs 2010 Opening Day Predictions.
Looking back, it turns out that I’m good! How good? Well, not diety good, but pretty good. The categories covered both predictions related specifically to the Twins and to MLB in general. Let’s take a look back:
Twins-Specific Predictions (comments in parens)
– Twins MVP: Joe Mauer (I’m on record somewhere as feeling Delmon Young was actually a better choice for MVP than Joe, but the consensus around the rest of Twins blogdom seems to be in Mauer’s corner… so I was right, right?)
– Twins Top Pitcher: Kevin Slowey (He was probably the Twins top pitcher for a day or two during the season but I admit this wasn’t a real solid pick, in retrospect.)
– Twins Best Rookie: Danny Valencia (Not a bad pick considering the guy was in Rochester when the prediction was made!)
– Twins Most Improved Player: Nick Punto (You can stop laughing now, it’s not THAT funny. I think this was a typo… I’m pretty sure I meant to type “Delmon Young”.)
– Bold Predictions (think of several if you’d like): Jim Thome plays a major role this year, to the tune of 25 home runs and Pat Neshek leads the Twins in saves. (Yeah, I know the Neshek “bold prediction” didn’t pan out but check out that “Thome plays a major role” prediction… 25 home runs! Talk about nailing a prediction!)
– A.L. Central Prediction (Standings): Minnesota, Chicago, Detroit, Kansas City, Cleveland (I got the last two teams inverted… but when one finishes 25 games behind 1st place and the other 27 games behind, does it really matter?)
– Three Keys to Success for the Twins: I suppose “win lots of games” is a bit broad, huh? OK, let’s say 1) identify a consistent closer; 2) keep the big guns healthy; and 3) consistency of the rotation. (I’d say the Twins did alright on the “consistent closer” thing. They found two of them, in fact. I suppose I have to accept defeat on the “keep the big guns healthy” idea since Doc missed the last half of the season, but six pitchers got all except three of the Twins starts this year… that’s a pretty consistent rotation, even if it wasn’t always consistently good.)
Moving on to the broader categories…
– A.L. MVP: When someone shows me a better, and more valuable, player than Joe Mauer, I’ll consider someone else. Until then, he’s the guy. (Joe turned in another very good season, but without the power demonstrated last year… so I’ll admit someone else – my pick would be Josh Hamilton – will earn the AL MVP award.)
– N.L. MVP: Likewise, I can’t see anyone approaching Albert Pujols for this award. (Who would have predicted Joey Friggin Votto?)
– A.L. Cy Young: Cliff Lee, Seattle… if he gets off his lazy butt and gets on the mound sometime soon. (Lee had a good year… but Felix Hernandez should get this award and Lee really isn’t even in the top 5.)
– N.L. Cy Young: Roy Halladay, Philadelphia (Nailed it. Halladay is pretty good at pitching.)
– A.L. Rookie of the Year: Brian Matusz, Baltimore (Feliz, the Rangers closer, is going to win this award, but I’m not embarassed by this pick. Matusz had a very good rookie year and I personally have issues with a closer getting this award anyway.)
– N.L. Rookie of the Year: Jason Heyward, Atlanta (Not the runaway winner I expected, but he should still get the award.)
– A.L. Breakout Player of the Year: Let’s go with our own Denard Span, shall we? (I have no idea who might win this award… but I think it’s a safe bet it won’t be Denard.)
– N.L. Breakout Player of the Year: I’ve got no friggin clue here (The year is over and I still don’t know who this was in the NL. I should watch more NL games, I suppose.)
– A.L. Comeback Player of the Year: Pat Neshek would be a nice story in this category, wouldn’t he? (Neshek would have been a good story… but instead the award went to another Twins pitcher, Francisco Liriano. Maybe I just got them confused… they look a lot alike, yanno.)
– N.L. Comeback Player of the Year: Yeah… no idea. (It went to Tim Hudson of the Braves.)
– A.L. Playoff Predictions: Twins over Red Sox, Yankees over Mariners
– N.L. Playoff Predictions: Braves over Rockies, Cards over Phillies
– World Series Prediction: Twins over Cardinals in a throwback to 1987!
(Only getting half the playoff teams right isn’t much to brag about, is it? But in my defense, the Red Sox and Rockies weren’t bad and the Cardinals didn’t fold until late in the year. But then there’s that Mariners pick. Ouch… what the heck was I thinking?)
I haven’t gone back to see how other bloggers did with their picks, now that we have the benefit of hindsight. There are certainly a lot of men and women in the Twins blogging community who are smarter than I am so I’m sure several got a few more predictions right than I did… but I didn’t totally suck, and for me that’s GOOD! – JC