Day: April 16, 2012

Game Chat – Twins @ Yankees, 6:05 pm

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Justin Morneau plays first base tonight and Josh Willingham slips up in to the clean-up spot between Morneau and Joe Mauer, as Justin drops down to 5th in the order.

It’s also Carl Pavano’s first start for the Twins in Yankee Stadium. That should be interesting because he’s so beloved there.

TWINS

@

 YANKEES
Span, CF Jeter, SS
Carroll, SS Granderson, CF
Mauer, DH Rodriguez, Al, 3B
Willingham, LF Cano, 2B
Morneau, 1B Teixeira, 1B
Doumit, C Swisher, RF
Valencia, 3B Ibanez, DH
Thomas, C, RF Martin, C
Casilla, A, 2B Gardner, LF
  _Pavano, P   _Garcia, F, P
  1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E
Minnesota 2 0 0 0 2 1 0 2 0 7 14 1
NY Yankees 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 9 0

Many of you younger Twins fans may not realize it, but yes the Twins ARE allowed to beat the Yankees! Young or old, not many fans have seen the Twins beat the Evil Empire lately, especially at George’s Monstrosity.

This was another team-wide effort. Our guys scored two runs in the top of the first and I jokingly asked the Chat group what the over-under was on how long it would take Carl Pavano to cough up the lead. I don’t think any of us imagined the answer would be four pitches, but that’s all the longer it took. But the three runs ‘Stache allowed in the first were all they got as he frustrated the hell out of Yankee hitters (and a few million Yankee fans, no doubt) for the next six scoreless innings.

Brian Duensing lit up the radar gun, hitting 95 mph several times, in the scoreless 8th and Matt Capps closed the door in the ninth.

Joe Mauer had three hits (two of them doubles, one in each corner of the OF), Justin Morneau celebrated his return to the defensive side of the field by launching a home run to dead CF.

All of these guys, and probably more, deserve baked goods galore for their efforts and certainly both Pavano and Mauer were worthy of Boyfriend of the Day consideration. But we’re going to reward defense tonight and Alexi Casilla just ooooozed defense! A slick, leaping turn of a double play and a diving stop of a ground ball up the middle followed by a glove-hand feed to SS Jamey Carroll were just two examples of his contributions. Just for good measure, he also doubled and scored a run. For all of that, Lexi, you are our BOD!

– JC

Alexi Casilla

Yankee Doodle Dandy

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After some early season snafus relating to the Twins’ previous post-season failures against the Yankees, the Twins have an opportunity to put some of those demons to bed, starting tonight, as the open a 4-game series in New York tonight at 6:05pm central.

Image from M.T.'s Blog, http://matt7.mlblogs.com/

While some former Twins (Torii Hunter, Michael Cuddyer, etc.) may have indicated that they Twins were mentally beat against the Yankees before their previous post-season collapses, there is a wealth of historical precedence that helped create those mental barriers.  In the past 10 years the Twins are 18-51 against the Yankees, and that does not include the three times the Yankees eliminated the Twins from post-season play.  Add those in and the Twins are an even more embarrassing 20-63 against the Bronx Bombers. A W-L% of  about .241.  To put that in perspective, over a 162 game season, playing ONLY the Yankees, the Twins would win 39 games.

In those 83 games against the Yankees, 42 were in New York, and the Twins won only 7 times, which does not bode well for the Twins as they roll in to Yankee Stadium this evening.

But here is why I think the Twins have a chance to split* this four game series, which would be a resounding victory, historically:

*Let’s just assume that C.C. Sabathia is his regular self, and Francisco Liriano is the disappointing fallen star that we’ve come to know, so the Twins are not going to win tomorrow night.  And while only two Twins have faced Hiroki Kuroda (Ryan Doumit and Josh Willingham), both have been unsuccessful and the Yankees have blasted Jason Marquis to the tun of .361/.395/.778 for an OPS of almost 1200! In the other two games, the Twins will face Freddy Garcia, and Phil Hughes.  Both are beatable and if the Twins can pitch well enough to keep the Yankees to 5 runs per game, they will have a chance to steal a couple of wins from the Yanks.

Hitting:

In addition to hitting 4 home runs and 6 doubles against Garcia in 71 plate appearances, Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer have combined to walk 10 times compared to just 5 strikeouts.  Of the 114 total plate appearances by current Twins, only Danny Valencia (1/4) has an OBP against Garcia that’s lower than .285.  The Twins have not fared quite as well against Phil Hughes, but still post an OBP of .317, albeit in a sample size limited to just 38 at bats.  Either way, the Twins have an opportunity to get out front of the Yankees early and to allow their starters to work deeper into games, limiting the opportunities for the bullpen to let another close game slip away.

Pitching/Defense:

In addition to hitting well against the Yankees, Carl Pavano (tonight’s starter) and Anthony Swarzak (projected to take Nick Blackburn‘s start on Thursday) have managed to keep the Yankees in check.  Pavano has limited current Yankees to a triple slash of just .229/.252/.359 with just 9/30 hits against him going for extra bases.  Swarzak has faced current Yankees hitters just 39 times, but he has yet to give up a home run to any of the current Yankees, which has been one of their biggest weapons against the Minnesota Twins.  Decent starting pitching will be complemented with a defense that is likely to be near league average with Justin Morneau slotted into first base and either Trevor Plouffe or Clete Thomas taking an outfield spot away from Ryan Doumit.

Winning two games against the Yankees and splitting the series will not get this team any closer to contending for the AL Central, but it will help plant the seed in the minds of this current group of Twins that they can beat the Yankees, something the Twins haven’t really done for a decade.

It starts tonight!

– ERolfPleiss