We here at Knuckleballs want to wish all of you a very Happy New Year!
Since we’ve been talking about 2013 so much this off-season, it’s almost a relief that it’s finally here. Since I’m the optimist in the crowd, I’m really looking forward to see what the Twins will cook up starting in Spring Training. I’ve never been reliant on what things look like on paper… there are just too many variables – even for the stat heads.
So, here’s hoping that you keep your eyes on what could happen the next day, the next game and enjoy your 2013!
ESPN blogs put out a fun piece showing a bunch of the teams’ new BP caps! Of course they offer their opinions of all the new toppers (some of which I agree with and some not so much) but you should really give it a read anyway.
But to grab you the part us Twins fans are interested in, here’s a snip:
Twins (home)
The white front panel makes sense for the Twins, because they’ve worn that style before as a batting helmet. They’re also adding a road design, which seems like a bit much. Like, the Twins, of all teams, really need separate home and road BP caps? Grades: A (home) and B- (road)
My personal fav of the new ones is the Rockies – I really like some of the more graphic additions as long as they aren’t too busy because I’m really rather conservative about my caps. That shows in the fact that I think the Rangers and the Diamondbacks also did a good job… and yep, I still hate the Marlins. Wow, that is some crap coloring they have to work with and well, everything. It has no saving graces whatsoever.
At any rate, you should check them out if you’re sitting somewhere looking out at more snow to shovel and ponder warmer days.. it’s therapeutic. Now where is my “sun” lamp…
I’ve been pretty critical of the Twins front office lately. I’m not alone in that, of course. Quite a number of fans, including many who are far more informed and better able to communicate than I, feel that the Twins have simply not done enough to improve the team this offseason.
Over this Christmas holiday week, I couldn’t help but reflect on matters so much more important than baseball. Will the ideologues in Washington really lead our country in to a deeper recession simply to try to make those who disagree with them look bad? What can we do to help those whose lives have been devastated by terrible storms? How do we make sure our children and their teachers can go about the educational process without fear of seemingly random acts of unthinkable violence?
Kind of makes the whole debate over whether Terry Ryan is doing enough to fix the Twins’ rotation seem hardly worth thinking about, much less arguing about over and over, doesn’t it?
So why do it? If we’re going to feel so passionate about a problem that we’ll write 1,000 words about it… not once but several times a week… shouldn’t the topic be more substantial than baseball? Of course it should.
But I can’t solve those important problems. Nothing I say or write will help. I’ve led a relatively active political life, yet I’ve never felt less able to influence my government. I give to charities, but it seems like a drop in the bucket of what’s needed for humanity. I pray, yet have never felt less aware of God’s presence in our world.
So perhaps it’s simply that powerlessness that brings me back here. I can’t do anything about any of the important matters facing the world, so I focus attention… arguably too much attention, at times… on baseball. Granted, I have no more influence with Terry Ryan than I do Congress, but I enjoy writing about baseball more than about politics, so here I am and here I shall remain.
The give and take with other baseball fans and writers… especially other Twins fans… is enjoyable. It would certainly be more enjoyable if the talent being assembled looked to be more competitive on the field come Opening Day, but we can’t really do any more about that, as fans, than discuss it. So that’s what we do.
Is it really all that important whether the Twins are being built to win more games in 2013 or not? Does it matter if we have to wait until 2014… or even 2015 or 2016… for the Twins to be good again? Well, for those of us closer to the end of our projected mortality arc than the beginning of it, it may be more important, but no, it’s not all that critical in the grand scheme of things.
But it is important.
I don’t believe the Pohlads are evil people out to fleece Twins fans out of our money without any concern for the quality of the product on the field. I don’t believe Terry Ryan is stupid about baseball, nor is he so ego-driven that he is determined to prove he can assemble a winning roster without spending any money at all. I also don’t envision his staff of senior baseball people resembling the group of old-school scouts in the movie version of “Moneyball,” whose player evaluations seemed based solely on “gut feel”.
Pohlad and Ryan want to win. I believe they want to win in 2013, while also preparing to contend in years beyond. The players Ryan obtained in return for Denard Span and Ben Revere make it clear that Ryan’s primary focus is at least two years in the future. He knows it would be a very good idea not to have the 2013 Twins lose 95+ games again and he’ll try to avoid that, but he’s clearly not going to waste a lot of energy… or the Pohlads’ money… on any attempt to fix the team’s immediate problems.
I still think that’s bad business, but it’s not my business. The Pohlads have entrusted those decisions to Ryan and, presumably, team president Dave St. Peter, so in a few years we’ll see who was right.
With the new year almost upon us, it’s probably time to move past the, “what should Terry Ryan do?” phase of the offseason discussion, anyway. Maybe there will be a late bargain available to Ryan over the next couple of months, but for the most part, the roster is set. It will be an $80 million payroll short on established Major League talent. It will be a team projected to finish at the bottom of the AL Central again.
But that doesn’t mean it can’t be fun to watch… and to talk about.
That’s one of the things that makes baseball the greatest game in the world, to me. When the players… whatever their respective talent levels… take the field, anything can happen. You never know when you might see something you’ve never seen before. I couldn’t begin to count the number of baseball teams I’ve been involved with over the years, from the time I started playing organized ball at the age of 5, through my years as a player, as a coach, and now as merely a fan who enjoys writing about the game and my chosen favorite teams. But I’ve enjoyed literally every summer of baseball for these past 50+ years and I’m sure I’ll enjoy 2013, as well.
I will also get frustrated in 2013. I will rant here… and elsewhere… about that frustration. I will argue about it. I will cheer what successes may be found in 2013 and I will try to savor the experience of watching a potential Hall of Fame catcher do his thing for the Twins, just as I savored watching Rod Carew’s talent, even during some very difficult years for the Twins and their fans.
I may not spend much of my money on Twins tickets in 2013 (I spent no money at all on them in 2012) because I do believe the only way any of us can genuinely influence Ryan and his bosses to change their business strategy is by speaking with our pocketbooks. I attended 12-15 games a year when I felt the organization was moving in the right direction. I won’t do so when I feel that’s no longer true.
Hammond Stadium, Spring Training home of the Twins
That doesn’t mean I won’t still be a fan. I’ve been a fan through far worse stretches over the past 50 years. For better or worse, being a Twins fan is an important aspect of who I am and I will continue to spend a considerable about of time following them, talking about them, writing about them and, yes, arguing about them. I’m not sure what that says about me, but it probably isn’t good… at least not entirely good. I don’t really care about that.
I care about the Twins. And I care that Spring Training is less than two months away.
Terry Ryan has been a busy boy. We may or may not be impressed by what he’s been doing, but nobody can say he took an early holiday break from the office.
The Twins went in to the offseason needing starting pitching. Ryan told anyone who asked that he understood it was his job to improve the rotation. He also has, at various times, mentioned also wanting to add some bullpen pieces and someone to push Trevor Plouffe at third base.
He also consistently claimed that payroll would not significantly inhibit him from turning one of the worst teams in Major League Baseball in to a group that could compete in the AL Central.
Understanding that almost none of us actually believed that last part, I thought now might be a good time to tally up what the Twins’ GM has accomplished so far and how much of the Pohlads’ money he has spent. So, let’s project what the 25-man roster might look like if there are no further additions to the roster. (For the sake of simplifying things, I’ll assume all pre-arbitration eligible players will make $500,000… some will make a few bucks more, some a few less.)
That’s $54,250,000 for the projected starting batting order. Ryan may still try to find a third baseman, but chances are he’ll go dumpster diving even if he does find one, so I think it’s safe to project that whatever four players Manager Ron Gardenhire will have keeping him company on the bench will be making somewhere close to the league minimum, so that’s another $2,000,000 for some combination of Darin Mastroianni, Pedro Florimon, Eduardo Escobar, Oswaldo Arcia, Drew Butera, Chris Herrmann and/or whoever else claims a bench spot in Spring Training. (Butera is arbitration eligible, but it’s unlikely he’ll be awarded much, if any, above $500,000,)
That makes $56,250,000 for 13 non-pitchers. Let’s take a peek in to the bullpen:
Closer Glen Perkins: $2,500,000
Set Up Jared Burton: $2,050,000
LHRP Brian Duensing: $1,300,000 (est. arb award)
RHRP Anthony Swarzak: $500,000
RHRP Alex Burnett: $500,000
RHRP Casey Fien: $500,000
RHRP Josh Roenicke: $500,000
Yes, pretty much everyone below Duensing on the above list is going to have to win a spot in Spring Training, but for financial purposes this projection works. It would seem unlikely that anyone currently with the organization who knocks one of the last four guys out of the bullpen would make much more money. That adds up to a $7,850,000 bullpen.
OK, we’ve put off projecting the starting pitching as long as we can, but let’s uncover our eyes and take a look at the current state of the rotation:
Kevin Correia: $4,500,000
Mike Pelfrey: $4,000,000
Vance Worley: $500,000
Scott Diamond: $500,000
Liam Hendriks: $500,000
Once again, we could discuss the chances of Pelfrey being healthy enough to start the season in the rotation or whether Kyle Gibson will be there to open the season or whether someone like Pedro Hernandez might impress in Spring Training, but the net effect would just be swapping another “minimum wage” earner in to the fifth spot. So that’s an even $10,000,000 for the rotation. Yes, in an era when mediocre starting pitchers are getting seven figure salaries, the Twins look to pay their entire rotation $10 million. And if that doesn’t bother you enough, consider that Kevin Correia will make up 45% of that total.
That all adds up to a current Major League payroll of $74,100,000. Even if we have to add the $5,500,000 the Twins owe Nick Blackburn (yes, the Twins look like they’ll pay Blackburn more money NOT to pitch for them in 2013 than they’ll pay anyone else TO pitch), the total amounts to only $79,600,000… for the entire roster.
Rich Harden signed a minor league contract with the Twins this week and I haven’t read yet whether his deal includes something more than minimum wage pay if he makes the Big League roster out of Spring Training, but it certainly wouldn’t be surprising. That said, I think we will need to see Harden throw hard and stay healthy before we worry too much about what effect he’ll have on the payroll.
Maybe Terry Ryan isn’t finished. One would certainly like to think he’s spending some time with the agents of a couple of the remaining starting pitchers on the market who have demonstrated some level of proficiency of getting batters out over the last year or two, but would you be willing to bet on someone like Shawn Marcum still being added to the roster? Yeah… me either.
The Twins’ Opening Day payrolls during their three seasons at Target Field have been $97,659,167 (2010), $113,237,000 (2011) and $100,435,000 (2012)*, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. It’s virtually assured, at this point, that the Opening Day payroll in 2013 will be the lowest since the final year the team spent at the Metrodome when they opened at $65,299,266.
*Charley Waters of the Pioneer Press Tweeted over the weekend that it appeared the Twins Opening Day payroll would be about $83 million, $11 million fewer than in 2012. The only thing I can assume is that Charley is not counting the $3 million owed to Tsuyoshi Nishioka and the portion of Francisco Liriano’s paycheck the team avoided paying by trading him. Perhaps the Twins had insurance that negated Scott Baker’s salary? I don’t know, but even his newspaper’s published estimate of the Twins Opening Day payroll last year was about $100 million. Waters must also be assuming Terry Ryan is going to spend another $5 million somewhere because I can’t come up with anything close to $83 million right now.
What conclusions can we draw from this? Here’s my big take-away: Terry Ryan could have slashed Opening Day payroll by 10% to $90 million and still had over $20 million to spend on starting pitching. Instead he has pried less than $10 million out of the Pohlads’ wallets to fix arguably the most glaring problem of any team in Major League Baseball.
Could this be a glimpse of what Target Field will look like during Twins games in 2013?
Personally, I think cutting payroll even 10% from last season’s level when you’ve got an entire community of frustrated and distrusting fans is just bad business. The Twins brass keep talking about planning to compete in 2013, but talking that way while simultaneously cutting payroll by more than 20% is insulting our intelligence.
I think they’re underestimating the baseball IQ of their fanbase and they will see far more empty seats at Target Field in 2013 than they are expecting. Of course, that’s when we’re likely to learn what “insulting” really is… because that’s when someone in the organization is going to complain publicly about a lack of fan support.
You get the level of fan support you earn. Right now, I don’t think the Twins front office has earned the right to expect a single fan to show up for a game.
Let’s hope that changes over the next couple of months.
Christmas is coming quicker than I’m ready for but I’m ALMOST done with my Christmas shopping… yesterday was a long day. But just in case you aren’t in the Christmas mood yet, maybe this will get you ready for the impending holiday!
Sometimes you take a little business trip and pull back from the blogging thing for a few days and almost lose track of what’s going on with the Twins. Fortunately, there’s no shortage of great Twins blogs and podcasts to help bring you back up to speed. Of course, there also are some great Twins beat reporters that also keep us abreast of Twins news. So now that I’ve had a couple of days to get caught up, I’ve got some thoughts to share.
About those beat reporters
When one local newspaper announces a change in assignments for its Twins reporter, you don’t really give it much thought. When a second newspaper does the same, it may or may not raise an eyebrow.
But, while I don’t really keep close tabs on who is or isn’t covering the Twins for which traditional media outlet, I think a third Twins beat reporter took a different assignment last week… and I’m not sure he ever really started covering the Twins full time before he got his new gig.
Now Phil Mackey of 1500ESPN also is dropping the Twins beat, in favor of a switch to afternoon drive-time slot for his radio show. I understand that “drive-time” is a big deal to radio folks, since for many of us, the only time we even listen to the radio any more is during our commutes to/from work. And of course, the fact that 1500ESPN won’t be carrying Twins games going forward might have a little something to do with this change at Mackey’s station.
In fact, I’m sure there were plenty of good reasons for each of these moves… some apparently at the request of the respective reporters themselves, but FOUR beat reporters dropping the Twins beat? If it’s all a coincidence, it’s one heck of a coincidence, isn’t it?
By January, I’ll officially be following more FORMER Twins reporters on Twitter than current Twins reporters.
And some people say bloggers tend to come and go quickly.
Twins Moves… And Lack Thereof
When I boarded my flight for St. Petersburg FL about a week ago (which, as it turned out, did not actually land in St. Petersburg, but that’s not important here), Terry Ryan had recently traded away his second center fielder, Ben Revere, for another pitching prospect and for Vance Worley, who projects to slot in ahead of Scott Diamond in the Twins rotation. Not many were excited about losing Revere, but Ryan was generally praised for the bold move because, unlike his trade of Denard Span, this deal also helped address the 2013 pitching rotation.
We also tried to guess what Ryan’s next move would be. Certainly, he would need to wade in to the free agent pitching market if he intended to make good on his public promises to add enough starting pitching talent to assure the Twins can at least be competitive in 2013.
Worley was just the start. Of course Ryan would add more pitching, but we had to be patient. After all, Zack Greinke hadn’t signed anywhere yet, so the market for pitching hadn’t been set. Once that first domino fell, Ryan would know what the going rate for second tier pitching would be and he’d make his moves. Yes, more pitching help was coming. We just needed to be patient.
Since that time, Greinke has signed with the Dodgers, Anibal Sanchez has agreed to terms with the Tigers (and, perhaps the Cubs, too?), Ryan Dempster has signed with the Red Sox, Brandon McCarthy has joined the D’Backs, Joe Blanton has become an Angel, and Dan Haren has been inked by the Nationals… just to name a few. All in all, you’d have to say the market has now been set.
Even the Royals pulled off a big trade this week, sending a boatload of prospects to Tampa Bay in return for TWO starting pitchers. Say what you wish about how wise or unwise the Royals were for giving up what they did, but they made one thing clear to their fans… they are planning on competing in 2013.
Kevin Correia
The Twins? Well they haven’t stood idly by either. They signed Kevin Correia to a two-year contract. He wasn’t exactly what I was hoping for and my initial reaction was pretty much as negative as most others, but I actually have little problem with the Twins signing Correia. I think they overpaid, but as we’ve mentioned before, they’re the worst team in the AL and that means they will have to overpay for pretty much any free agent. Correia doesn’t have good “peripheral stats” so he’s certainly not a darling of the saber-metric community, but I do think he could well be better than most of the in-house options the team has.
My problem at this point isn’t with signing Correia, it’s with NOT signing other… better… pitchers.
Right now there’s no indication that the Twins are even thinking about Shawn Marcum, Edwin Jackson or anyone else of any quality. They are being linked to various has-beens, never-will-bes, and long-shot reclamation projects. The consensus seems to be that they’ve been scared off by the high prices being demanded by the remaining pitchers who could actually be… well… good at pitching.
In other words, they waited for the market to set the price of pitching and then decided that price was too high. What a surprise that is, right? How un-Twinslike! Now aren’t you glad we were patient?
Twins Hall of Fame
While the General Manager’s office has been busy dumpster diving this week, the PR folks have opened up public voting for this year’s Twins Hall of Fame inductions. I haven’t quite figured out how much say the fan voting has in determining who eventually garners enough support to be added to the club’s HoF, but if nothing else, the ballot certainly brings back a lot of memories. You should check it out.
If you follow me on Twitter, you probably already saw who I voted for, but here’s the list of my choices: Dave Boswell, Dave Goltz, Mudcat Grant, Chuck Knoblauch, Shane Mack, Cesar Tovar.
There were others I could certainly support. Dean Chance, Corey Koskie, Jeff Reardon, Roy Smalley and Al Worthington are quite possibly worthy… some perhaps even more worthy than a couple of guys I voted for.
Cesar Tovar tries to score
I personally feel Tovar and Mack are among the most underrated players in Twins history and deserve to be in the Twins’ Hall, but I’m not sure voters will agree. The one player that is, as always, the most controversial is Knoblauch.
Knobby certainly didn’t endear himself to Twins fans during his messy exit from Minnesota and he has the PED thing tarnishing his image further. Maybe some people don’t like voting for “cheaters”, but I’ll bet all my money against all of yours that the Twins HoF has several players already in it that were aided by taking amphetamines and if you don’t think those are “performance enhancing” drugs, you’ve never taken them.
Knoblauch was the best second baseman in club history this side of Rod Carew and he was a critical member of the 1991 championship team. So, yeah, he wanted out of Minnesota in the end. But frankly, the Twins showed absolutely no interest in fielding a competitive team in the mid 1990s and if I had been a member of the Twins then, I almost certainly would have done anything I could do to get out of town, too.
It’s too bad Knoblauch wasn’t born a few years later. Think of how much more fun he would have been having with the Twins now, what with the organization’s new commitment to competitiveness.
Episode 17 of the Twins baseball podcast, Talk To Contact (@TalkToContact), is now available for download via iTunes or by clicking here.
Once again the Twins’ twins get together to talk Twins baseball. This week Eric and Paul discuss the Kevin Correia signing (yuck), a look at the 2013 starting pitching rotation and the outfield, and the quick escalation of MLB player salaries. Later in the podcast they take a look at Rick Aguilera‘s career in Minnesota, what the offseason moves so far mean to the balance of power in the AL Central and they go Down on the Pond to take a closer look at Niko Goodrum before finishing off with a debate about the places each of them would like to be season ticket holders. Arguably the best 90 minutes ever recorded.
If you enjoy our podcast, please take a couple extra minutes and rate and review us on iTunes (ratings and reviews have magical iTunes powers, which help us become warlocks.)
TwinsFest 2013 is coming up soon and tickets went on sale TODAY. This is your chance to meet/see some of the new Twins folk we have added during the off-season and catching up with old favorites who are still with us. This definitely could be an interesting year – our own JimCrikket may even make the drive up from Iowa!
If you haven’t already heard this already, I’m not sure where you were hiding – especially since I’m sure most of the country could HEAR my squealing and jumping! The Twins have finally made an off-season move that I can whole-heartedly support.
So you know how we moved Jake Mauer up to Cedar Rapids and left that High A Miracle team without a manager? Yeah, now it has one!!
“I always wanted to see if I could be a manager,” … “I always felt like I was a Twin. What I want to do is get it back to where it was when I was there.” Doug Mientkiewicz
This fulfills one of my personal dreams as a Twins fan – not just because Dougie Baseball was my first baseball love – since I think he provides a true understanding of how to LEARN a defensive position and my hopes are that kids coming up through the system will learn the balance between the glove and the bat. I know this is only my personal bias but it’s something I think has been lacking in a lot of the kids we’ve been bringing up. I really couldn’t be happier about this arrangement.
Now we just have to get Red Dog back coaching/managing for us and my dreams will all have come true. I don’t ask for much.. it’s not like I want JJ Hardy to move into my neighborhood so I still get peeks of him too…
Followup: just listened to Dougie get interviewed by Reusse & Mackey – here’s a link to the podcast (Dec 11, Hour 1, about 24:30) because it was a GREAT one – and he covered a bit of how this all happened. Sounds like Mauer moved specifically to create the opening for the Twins to bring Doug in. Doug’s Mother-in-Law is very ill and his family is all in Florida. It took awhile for them to figure out if he could make the decision to keep working full-time given the family needs but once it was decided, his move to Florida was the best for the family and I think works out really well for the Twins too. I think it explains a lot about the moves and the timing. I haven’t felt this good about what we were doing in the lower levels in a long time and it’s definitely making me more optimistic about the teams in the next few years.
