Greatness Must Be More Than a Tradition

Perhaps my favorite quote is one that has been attributed to Charles Lindbergh and it goes something like this: “A great tradition may be inherited, but true greatness must be achieved.”

I’ve been thinking about that lately, in the context of the Minnesota Twins. It’s not that I believe the current roster is great or really even has much of a chance of achieving greatness. They certainly haven’t given us reason to expect greatness in their first handful of games this season.

I wonder, though, how many members of this team understand what it takes to acheive greatness… or even a level approaching the near-greatness that the Twins class of 2002 that was honored Monday arguably captured. Not to understate the talent of the group, as a whole, but it seems like they had a spirit that drove them to at least strive for greatness.

They never really reached their goal… which, of course, was to win a World Series in Minnesota. They did, however, restore respectability to the organization and win a lot of baseball games, including a number of Division titles, in the process. They may not have achieved greatness, but they certainly achieved very-goodness… and the current crop of Twins have inherited that legacy.

Do they know what to do with that legacy, though? Do they recognize the need to achieve greatness for themselves or do they think that they should just be very good because the Twins teams that preceded them for most of the past decade have been very good?

It’s difficult to maintain greatness in pretty much any organization. Most consistently successful companies have formal or informal “succession planning” programs that assure continuity of purpose and philosophy. It’s not something that’s easy to do, even in the most conducive of corporate environments. Trying to develop such a philosophy in a Major League clubhouse where today’s team mate is tomorrow’s opponent and the hot-hitting rookie is a threat to take away a veteran’s livelihood is probably all but impossible.

Some mentoring goes on, of course. Not every veteran ballplayer has the, “it’s all about me and screw the guy coming up behind me,” mentality (let’s call that the Bret Favre mentality, shall we?). Kirby Puckett supposedly mentored Torii Hunter and Hunter supposedly did likewise with Denard Span. It happens, but it happens so seldom that it tends to gets elevated to mythical proportions when it does happen.

I’m not sure where I’m going with this, but it occurs to me that this group of Twins… from the front office management to the on-field management to the veteran players to the rookies… have not achieved anything close to greatness. I suppose an argument can be made that Carl Pavano has acheived greatness, at least briefly, in his younger days with the Marlins. Ron Gardenhire and Terry Ryan deserve some credit for guiding that class of 2002 through their period of very-goodness.

What the Twins have in their clubhouse is an combination of a couple of very good baseball players who inherited the near-great tradition of the teams led by guys like Torii Hunter, Johan Santana and Corey Koskie, along with a few decent new players who, frankly, came from organizations that haven’t even had the kind of tradition the Twins have had, and a bunch of young players that really haven’t experienced anything approaching greatness in their professional careers.

When the Yankees or Red Sox or even the Braves start out a season by getting swept in their first series, there’s no cause for ledge jumping. Those teams have players who know what it takes to be great and are confident in their abilities to achieve greatness once again, despite a temporary set back. Who in the Twins’ clubhouse has that experience to fall back on, much less the ability to share it with team mates in a manner that instills confidence?

It’s difficult for a young player to step in to such a role. Most of them are too busy pinching themselves over the realization they’re Major League ballplayers playing a game in front of 40,000 people to think beyond the moment. But once they settle in to the routine, do any of them have the drive necessary to lead a team to achieve greatness? I hope so.

And what of management? Where will the next great leader of this organization come from? I doubt Ron Gardenhire’s job is in immediate jeopardy, but it’s almost impossible for me to imagine him leading the team through the next generation of ballplayers. Who will Terry Ryan and the Pohlads charge with the responsibility of leading the team of Joe Benson, Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario and Kyle Gibson to a level of greatness not achieved in over two decades?

How will the current Twins and those coming up behind them learn to achieve greatness? In the absence of credible mentors to learn from, it will take someone (or better yet, multiple someones) with incredible leadership skills to build a winning mentality back nearly from scratch.

Ron Gardenhire and Tom Brunansky (photo: Jim Crikket)

I’m nowhere near knowledgeable enough about the Twins organization to predict who will step up to provide that kind of leadership or when it might arrive. Outside of watching the Beloit Snappers a few times a year and spending a week or so at the Twins’ spring training site every March, I have little to base an opinion on. Maybe players like Benson, Brian Dozier, Aaron Hicks and Liam Hendriks will eventually fill leadership roles on the field and in a future Twins clubhouse, but the guy I expect to see eventually establish a presence with the Big Club is former Twin Tom Brunansky.

If you spend any time hanging out around the minor league fields during spring training, you can tell which coaches tend to attract an audience when they speak. Two men have stood out to me as guys that always seem to have the attention of any player within earshot of them: Paul Molitor and Brunansky. Molitor serves in an instructional capacity every spring and it seems he’s pretty satisfied with that limited role, but Bruno has been moving up the organizational ranks as a hitting coach and is with the AAA team in Rochester this year.

I know there are people who feel Brunansky could or even should be promoted to the Twins’ hitting coach position to replace Joe Vavra. Personally, I think he’s fine right where he is… teaching the next generation of Twins how to play baseball. He’s the kind of coach… and, potentially, the kind of manager… that could bring credibility to a field management job if and when he gets his opportunity in Minnesota.

For now, this is admitedly all just idle conjecture. Then again, until the current Twins start winning some ball games and give us something else to focus on, idle conjecture is likely to lead to more interesting discussions than anything going on between the white lines.

– JC

 

What, Me Worry?

(This image is almost certainly the property of whomever owns the rights to MAD Magazine these days.)

Yes, I’m feeling a bit Alfred E. Neuman-ish today.

Yes, the Twins are 0-4, a trait they share with the Atlanta Braves. Yes, they’ve hit at a pathetic .165 clip and struggled to score a run or two, at most, each game. Yes, three of their four starting pitchers currently sport ERAs of 5.14, 7.50 and 11.25 after their first time through the rotation. 

But is all of that really enough to make everyone bail on the entire season?

Given that so many fans had pretty much written this season off before it started, I guess it’s not surprising that the answer to that question for just as many people is, “yes.” It just seems a tad premature, to me, after just four games, especially when everyone knew (or should have known) that April was going to be a brutal month.

No, the Orioles are not among the American League’s elite teams, but the Twins have struggled with them recently, especially on the road. And, yes, this team is likely to remain at or near the bottom of their Division through the rest of the month, given the nature of the upcoming schedule (the next 15 games are against what are probably five of the six best teams in the AL).  

But let’s keep a little perspective here. Despite the losses, there are a handful of things that haven’t gone too badly so far:

  • Josh Willingham will never be mistaken for a gold glove outfielder, but he’s done what he was brought in to do… hit the baseball hard. He’s hit .385 and has an OPS of 1.390 with a home run in Baltimore and, just to prove it can be done, another home run in Target Field Monday. (Hey, if others can use a small sample size to “prove” the team sucks, I can use it, too.)
  • Justin Morneau is hitting the ball hard. Do I wish he was playing 1B while hitting the ball hard? Of course. But given my limited expectations a month ago, I like what I see.
  • Most of the bullpen arms are looking OK. Matt Capps hasn’t blown a save (then again, there hasn’t been a save situation, yet) and he, along with Brian Duensing, Glen Perkins, Jeff Gray and Alex Burnett, have managed to hold opponents scoreless in their limited work.
  • Speaking of limited bullpen work, only Francisco Liriano failed to go at least five innings in his first start and the WHIPs (walks + hits per inning pitched) for the other three starters were very reasonable (1.20 for Anthony Swarzak, 1.17 for Nick Blackburn and 1.00 for Carl Pavano).

The bottom line, for me anyway, is that I believe this team will score some runs. My greatest fear entering the season was that the pitching staff would implode. In fact, that’s still my greatest fear. But the arms are off to a reasonably decent start, with a couple of exceptions (that would be you, Mr. Burton and Mr. Maloney, along with Mr. Liriano), so when the bats start to come around, maybe things won’t look so bad.

Even in the middle infield, where Jamey Carroll and Alexi Casilla have managed a total of one hit between them, at least they are making most of the plays they need to defensively, which is more than we could say a year ago. And if their bats don’t come around soon, Brian Dozier is already raking down in Rochester and he’s only a phone call away.

I really don’t expect a lot of wins over the next couple of weeks and I’m sure that will only intensify the grumbling among the fan base. But I’m anxious to see whether some of the young players like Swarzak, Liam Hendriks, Trevor Plouffe, Chris Parmelee and, eventually, Dozier, can do when they get past the, “Oh my God, I’m in the Big Leagues!” phase of their seasons.

I’m still interested in this team and I hope most of the rest of you are, too. But if you really just can’t imagine the start to a season being any worse, keep in mind that things could be much worse.

Ask Ozzie Guillen.

– JC

GameChat – HOME OPENER! Angels @ Twins, 3:10 pm

From @Twins on Twitter: ..and the jerseys were hung by their lockers with care..

 

The big day is finally here! We are shortly to have BASEBALL in Minnesota again! Yes, we are playing the Angels.. yes, that means the return of Torii Hunter. It also means we are visited by the likes of CJ Wilson (yum) and Albert Pujols (yikes) and what is likely to be one of the toughest teams in baseball this year. The Angels spent a FORTUNE this off-season in an attempt to be one of the toughest teams in baseball so unless the wheels fall off the bus early for them, this is likely to be a challenge our somewhat inconsistent defense isn’t quite ready for yet.

ASIDE: Most of you know that I am willing to give a lot of leeway on BA if the glove-work is on point. Yeah, my bias is clear in that I’m just not willing to go the other way. I will look crosswise at any player who thinks that big hits will makeup for shoddy fielding. It’s just how I am. Call me the balance of all those who love the long bomb no matter what. So to a couple of our new guys: I am definitely intrigued by what you have to offer but get your shit together in the field or we’ll have to have a chat.

Back to positive thinking. Yes, it turns out the Twins ARE having an impact on opposing teams. Even CJ Wilson is exclaiming on how impressive Target Field is.. now if only they were intimidated by it. But despite the finally having March weather now that April is here, it should be a really nice day for afternoon baseball! I wonder how many of us are taking sick days to either be at the park or otherwise having the time to watch the game. I’m lucky enough to be “working” from/at/on home so I know what I get to do! I might be a horrible fan but I’ve gotten to the stage in my life where I don’t really enjoy attending the Home Opener anymore. Yes, it’s a fantastic atmosphere but if you are there to actually WATCH baseball, you have to contend with a lot of bandwagon/casual/not fans who are just there because it’s a special day and really don’t care about the game at all. It’s kind of a pain in the patooter. The only thing that I think I am kind of wishing I was participating in is the celebration of the 2002 playoff team.. (although I think that is a really weak excuse to have a player reunion/celebration,) It’s fun to see the likes of Dougie Baseball (he’s still my baseball first love) return to Minnesota and remind Minnesotans that the Twins have far exceeded our expectations in previous years so here’s hoping they can do it again this year!

Let’s hope the Twins are able to get a nice restart after that not-so-successful first series against the Orioles.

 

LA Angels

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Minnesota
Aybar, SS Span, CF
Kendrick, H, 2B Carroll, SS
Pujols, 1B Mauer, 1B
Morales, K, DH Morneau, DH
Hunter, To, RF Willingham, LF
Abreu, LF Doumit, C
Callaspo, 3B Valencia, 3B
Iannetta, C Plouffe, RF
Bourjos, CF Casilla, A, 2B
  Wilson, C, P   Blackburn, P

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Well according to Rhett Bollinger, this is only the 3rd time in team history that the Twins have started the season 0-4… I don’t know what happened in the rest of the other two seasons but I’m afraid to go find out.

There were a couple good things to point out – Willy hit yet another HR – just an inning too late to multiple RBI.  And actually, Blackburn pitched a pretty darn good game. The first inning was rough but he really settled down and pitched great after that. Sadly, it was mostly the fielding that let us down.. again. Seriously guys, get your shit together.

But to end on a positive note, check out his fantastic grab by Blackburn since this infielding was letting him down: Blackburn with a fantastic behind-the-back nab!

GameChat: Twins @ Orioles, 12:35 pm

We’re still awaiting our first win of the season here in Twins Territory, and what better day than Easter?

I don’t tend to analyze the day-to-day lineup changes, but today’s lineup is a bit different than we’ve seen so far, sitting Danny Valencia and Alexi Casilla to give Sean Burroughs and Luke Hughes some playing time.

Minnesota

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Baltimore
Span, CF Chavez, En, LF
Carroll, SS Hardy, SS
Mauer, 1B Markakis, RF
Morneau, DH Jones, Ad, CF
Willingham, LF Wieters, C
Doumit, C Johnson, N, DH
Burroughs, 3B Betemit, 3B
Hughes, L, 2B Davis, C, 1B
Revere, RF Andino, 2B
  Swarzak, P   Hammel, P

At least it wasn’t a no-hitter or shutout, as jamar said in chat…

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GameChat: TWINS @ Orioles, 6:05 pm

Some good news and some not so good news for Twins fans today. Unfortunately, most of the good news comes from their minor league affiliates, while the bad news involves the health of a member of their Major League rotation… and it’s not even Scott Baker this time.

Rookie Liam Hendriks has been scratched from his scheduled start Sunday in Baltimore due to food poisoning. Anthony Swarzak will step in and take the mound against the O’s in Hendriks’ place Sunday.

On the brighter side, media reports out of Connecticut tell us that Jason Marquis threw 75 pitches in today’s game for AA New Britain. Marquis went six innings, strikingout four hitters, while giving up just one earned run on seven hits, without giving up any walks. Looks like Marquis should be ready to rejoin the Twins after making maybe one more start for the Rock Cats.

Also of note in the minors, super-prospect Miguel Sano jerked a grand slam home run to lead the Beloit Snappers to their first win last night. May it be just one of many in his career with the organization.

Meanwhile, tonight back in Baltimore, the Twins try once again for their own first win of the season. The line up behind lefty Francisco Liriano looks pretty similar to the one that took the field for Friday’s season opener, with the only change being Ben Revere taking Ryan Doumit’s spot in right field. It makes sense to give Doumit the night off, assuming he will be putting on the “tools of ignorance” Sunday to catch Swarzak. – JC

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Span, CF Reimold, LF
Carroll, SS Hardy, SS
Mauer, C Markakis, RF
Morneau, DH Jones, Ad, CF
Willingham, LF Wieters, C
Parmelee, 1B Reynolds, Ma, 3B
Valencia, 3B Johnson, N, 1B
Revere, RF Paulino, R, DH
Casilla, A, 2B Andino, 2B
  _Liriano, P   _Hunter, T, P
  1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E
Minnesota 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 7 2
Baltimore 0 1 2 3 0 0 2 0 x 8 13 1

The Twins will win a game eventually, I almost guarantee it.

But at some point, they’re going to have to score more than two runs in a game.

I do hope all the “don’t make Frankie pitch to contact” people are happy with his average of nearly 20 pitches per inning in his four innings of work.

Ah well… go get ’em Sunday, boys!

GameChat – SEASON OPENER! Twins @ Orioles, 2:05 pm

TWINS BASBEALL!!!!!

The time is finally here for baseball in Twins Territory for 2012!

And lest we forget the day (like he’d let us), Happy Birthday to Bert Blyleven. It is becoming near kitsch-level as celebrations go but you have to know he enjoys his birthdays more than most of us so good for him.

At any rate, for all those making predictions about what the first lineup was going to be probably didn’t expect this one. However, I think most of the players are pretty close and I actually like the idea of Doumit in RF instead of DH’ing if we need to move him to catcher for any reason. Do I like the idea that Morneau still prefers to DH right now instead of field a position? Not so much. However! He gets major points from me from being willing to admit that physically he’s still not on par with where he was a couple years ago. His weight alone says that for me and being willing to play and still do things to give his team the best chance they can get says a lot to me about his character and matches my concern about 50/50 with hope that his recovery is on track. That’s way better than where I was last season.

In other news, I haven’t heard any update yet on Scott Baker who left his start yesterday with what appears to be a pretty big setback in his return to health. There does come a point where you start to wonder if health is actually possible for some guys no matter how hard they try to do rehab right. Here’s hoping…

In general though, most of you know I’m an optimist or I would have given up on watching Twins baseball a long time ago! It’s a new season. All that happened last year that crushed my heart is gone away and a new roster and a new season has begun. Go Twins!

 

Minnesota

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Baltimore
Span, CF   Reimold, LF
Carroll, SS   Hardy, SS
Mauer, C   Markakis, RF
Morneau, DH   Jones, Ad, CF
Willingham, LF   Wieters, C
Doumit, RF   Betemit, DH
Valencia, 3B   Reynolds, Ma, 3B
Parmelee, 1B   Davis, C, 1B
Casilla, A, 2B   Andino, 2B
  Pavano, P     Arrieta, P

 

 

 

 

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Well that’s certainly not what you want to see on Opening Day for your team.  What I will say is that there were some really fun moments within the game and they all seemed to come from the new guys! Doumit, Willingham & Carroll all seemed to be more on par for what regular season baseball should mean than the rest of our guys seemed to have – including Pavano. (we will not forget that fielding lapse, however, Doumit) And the 9th inning finally got the Twins on the board and even some excitement about whether they could get the game back going when the tying runner made it to 1B… and sadly, that’s where it ended. My suggestion for the team is this – if they want to make a come-from-behind victory, they should start BEFORE the 9th inning. Just saying.

In the having-more-fun-than-me category of course was JC & Eric (our newest author) who got together for a mini-gathering of Knuckleballers!

Cheers! And here’s to planning a few more like gatherings this season! See y’all tomorrow!

Great Expectations

With Opening Day upon us, everyone is making their predictions for how this season will unfold. And why not? It’s harmless fun.

But here are a few things I’ve learned over the years about pre-Opening Day prognostications:

  1. They tend to be based way too much on the previous season. I’m amazed every year by how many people who are supposed to be “experts” about Major League Baseball seem to come up with their predictions apparently by doing nothing more than looking at a team’s record the previous year.
  2. There’s a lot of “groupspeak” going on. Once a couple of these “experts” render an opinion about a team, that’s the end of the discussion. Everyone else falls in line with that “conventional wisdom.”
  3. The pre-Opening Day conventional wisdom turns out to be wrong as often as it’s right… and sometimes it’s very wrong.

Don’t believe me? Take a glance at the picks by the ESPN staff (all 45 of them), FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal, the Yahoo Sports trio of writers, and just to make sure the computer projections are represented, take a look at a composite of several such projections (James, PECOTA, etc.). That’s  an even 50 prognostications you can go back to look at.

Or, if you trust my math skills, I’ll save you the trouble of looking:

  • 37 of the 50 picked the Red Sox to win the World Series (the computers didn’t pick a WS champion, but they did project the Sawx to have the best record in baseball). In case you’ve forgotten, Boston collapsed and didn’t make the playoffs. Oops.
  • None… zero… picked the Cardinals to win the World Series… or even be in the World Series. Only ESPN’s Doug Glanville, Peter Pascarelli, Bobby Valentine, Dave Winfield, Joe McDonald and Mark Mulder foresaw the Cards to make the post-season. That’s six out of 50 who believed that the eventual NL champion would even play post-season ball.
  • But what about their AL Central predictions… and specifically, what did they think the Twins would do? Twelve out of the 50 predicted the Twins would win the Division. Then again, why shouldn’t they? They won the AL Central the previous season, right? So who DID the experts like to claim this Division? Well, for 33 of the 50, that would have been the White Sox. The Tigers, who eventually pretty much lapped the field in the AL Central, were the choice of just five prognostications. Give the computers credit, though, they were the consensus pick of the machines (though the same machines did predict that the Twins would win about 84 games).

All of that considered, why shouldn’t we retain some optimism for our Twins?

Last year’s Opening Day roster was good enough that nearly every media “expert” believed they should at least compete in the AL Central Division. What’s changed? While many don’t believe the rotation is any better, I think that’s just a matter of people having short memories of recent failures. I expect the rotation to be stronger. I also expect the bullpen to be better (there are decent arms on this staff AND a couple of guys in Rochester capable of coming up to help, when necessary).

Newcomer Ryan Doumit adds versatility (Photo: Jim Crikket)

The bench depth is considerably better. The starting line-up is better, just considering how much healthier Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau are, compared to a year ago. Josh Willingham and Ryan Doumit are at least the equals of Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel offensively. Is there reason to question whether young players like Chris Parmelee, Trevor Plouffe and Luke Hughes can perform at Major League levels over the course of a full season? Of course. Then again, they’re bound to be better than Tsuyoshi Nishioka, Drew Butera and Jason Repko.

So, the question I keep asking myself is this: If last April’s roster was expected to win enough games to contend within the AL Central Division, why shouldn’t the expectations for this roster be similar? To my mind, there’s no reason they shouldn’t have similar expectations, last year’s record aside.

It’s fine to keep expectations in check. There remain concerns with the health of key players like Morneau and Scott Baker. Denard Span still speaks of occasional lingering concussion issues. But from top to bottom, I like the looks of this roster much more than I expected to.

The Tigers are still the smart-money choice to win the AL Central Division and, outside of the White Sox, perhaps, the rest of the division could be better than last year, as well. But I fully expect the Twins to be contending at mid-season. If that turns out to be the case, we’ll find out whether ownership is willing to step up and make a deal or two, even if it means nudging the payroll a bit closer to last year’s level.

No team has ever made the playoffs a year after losing 99 games. Then again, few 99-game losers had as many health issues contribute to their lousy season as the Twins had a year ago, nor have others likely had two former MVPs (both still 30 years old or younger) returning from injury the following season.

Am I expecting greatness out of this Twins team? No, of course not. I’m not expecting more than I expected going in to last season. Then again, I’m not expecting a lot less, either.

My point is… there is reason for hope. And hope is really all that fans of any team have this time of year, because no matter how good the experts say your favorite team is, there are no guarantees. Just ask Red Sox fans.

– JC

 

Twins Predictions

Real live baseball (in America) begins tonight, before ramping up on Thursday, leading to the Twins’ opener on Friday in Baltimore.  With opening ceremonies in mind, here are the Knuckleballs Twins Predictions for 2012:

Pitcher of the Year: Scott Baker (minor early season DL stint not-withstanding) Baker was the best of a bad Twins pitching staff in 2011, despite missing chunks of the season on the Disabled List.  I couldn’t tell you why I think he’s going to be healthy and productive this year (which already seems like a bad idea), but I think he will be great.  Jim Crikket thinks that Francisco Liriano will be the best pitcher of the year.   His spring numbers were very positive, he limited his walks and earned plenty of strike outs.  Unfortunately, if you look back just a little farther to his Winter numbers, they’re terrible.  Let’s hope the recent results tell more of a story for 2012.

Hitter of the Year: Justin Morneau  “Morneau is swinging like I haven’s seen him swing in a couple of years. Vicious cuts.” – Jim Crikket  Again, these are only Spring Training at bats, but ever since Morneau flipped the switch and hit two home runs in a game a couple weeks ago he’s been a man on fire.  Moving into the DH position and focusing solely on hitting seems to be working for Morneau.  Success in 2012 will help distance Morneau from his 2010 concussion and he could be playing first base everyday by the All-Star Break.

Defender of the Year: I wanted to select Alexi Casilla as the defender of the year, hoping against hope that he will remain focused, healthy, and attentive at second base and play more than 100 games for the first time in his career.  Jim wanted to go with Denard Span, because for the Twins to succeed in 2012 Span is going to need to cover huge amounts of ground in the left field and right field gaps (gaps which are now wide open with the move to put Josh Willingham and some combination of Trevor Plouffe and Ryan Doumit in the corners).

Rookie of the Year: Chris Parmelee/Liam Hendriks If Parmelee continues to hit like he did last September and this Spring he’ll be a top choice for the Twins’ best rookie.  The other candidate, who made the 25 man roster and will open the season in the starting rotation is Liam Hendriks.  Hendriks was probably slated to come up after 5-10 AAA starts, but because Scott Baker and Jason Marquis are not ready to start the season Hendriks gets a chance to showcase his skills earlier than anticipated.  If he keeps his spot in the rotation when both Baker and Marquis are back you’ll know he’s pitching well and on track to steal a Rookie of the Year award from Parmelee.

Most Valuable Player: Justin Morneau The engine that makes the Twins go is Joe Mauer, but Mauer is even better with a healthy Justin Morneau hitting behind him, forcing pitchers to attack Mauer allowing him to hit doubles all over spacious Target Field and driving in runs for the Twins.  If Morneau comes back and is indeed the hitter of the year, selecting him as the MVP will be as much about what he does as an individual, as what he does in the lineup to help those around him.

Comeback Player of the Year: Francisco Liriano Obviously Justin Morneau is a candidate here if he hits well and helps the team succeed, but after a horrendous 2011, if Liriano returns to his 2010 form he’s one of the best players in baseball.  If Morneau and Liriano are both All-Stars, this team will be lucky to two potential comeback players on their squad.

Expected Record: The Marcel projections peg the Twins for just a 70-92 record, relying heavily on the Twins’ 2011 results as a predictor of 2012 success (and a heavy dose of regression to the mean).  Even if Joe Mauer’s Cindarella Spring Training Clock strikes midnight and he turns in another injury plagued 2012, simply trading Drew Butera for Ryan Doumit means turning a -1.2 WAR into a 1.2 WAR, 2.4 additional wins, and that’s not even factoring in upgraded seasons the Twins are likely to receive from Denard Span, Alexi Casilla, Jamey Carroll (vs. Tsuyoshi Nishioka), Danny Valencia, and at least half of the Twins’ pitching staff.  Assuming then that the 70-92 record is the worst that the Twins could do in 2012, what is a reasonable expectation for the Home 9?  My best guess, 82-80, Jim Crikket is more optimistic, suggesting even 86-76 for the Twins.  Either way, the Twins are going to be competitive, entertaining and might even be relevant in September.  Will any of this come to pass?   I don’t know, but we’ve got 162 games to find out.  Bring on the baseball!

ERolfPleiss