Category Archives: Offseason

Butterflies With Hiccups – Friday Edition

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Given the length of most of my posts on this blog, it may be difficult to believe, but I haven’t come up with a single topic I could muster enough interest in to write about this week. As a result, I’m wrapping up the week with another “Butterflies With Hiccups” segment where I say just a little bit about a small number of unrelated topics.

Postseason Baseball

Those of you who tune out baseball after the Twins stop playing are missing some great ballgames!

The Giants and Tigers have advanced to their respective leagues’ Championship Series after full-blown five game series. Can it get any better than that? Interestingly, the answer is, “Yes, it can.” Tonight, we’ll be treated to another fifth game as the Nationals try to keep their magical season alive in Game 5 of their series with the Cardinals, who are once again trying to turn a season in which they lucked in to a Wild Card spot in to another World Series appearance.

But before we find out how that series turns out, there’s an even better drama playing out in New York. The Yankees appearing in the postseason is hardly dramatic, but heading to a Game 5 with the Orioles after Games 3 and 4 were decided in 12 and 13 innings, respectively, sure ratchets up the drama. The Orioles will have to find a way to beat CC Sabathia this afternoon/evening in order to keep their own fairy tale season alive.

Yankees manager Joe Girardi is showing some balls, I give him that. First of all, he’s managing the Yankees with a heavy heart, having lost his father just a few days ago. On top of that, now… in the deciding game of their ALDS… he’s sitting Alex Rodriguez on the bench. That’s gutsy. A-Rod has performed poorly and Yankee fans all over the place are no doubt rejoicing at Girardi’s decision. If the Yankees lose, though, you can count on those same fans calling for Girardi’s head.

Anyway, I’ll be wearing orange and black at the sports bar later today in support of former Twins Jim Thome, JJ Hardy, Lew Ford, Luis Ayala and their teammates (including former CR Kernel Joe Saunders).

Twins Stuff

The Twins have several players participating in the Arizona Fall League, which is where MLB teams tend to send several of their most promising prospects for a few extra games against high-level competition after the regular season is over. Of particular note, pitcher Kyle Gibson is off to a pretty impressive start. It’s stating the obvious, but it sure would be a huge help if Gibson turned out to be a useful member of the 2013 Twins rotation.

Over the next week, the Twins will hold their annual “organization meetings” in Fort Myers. These meetings are obviously private and in an organization as uber-secretive as the Twins, it’s rare for any information to escape those meeting rooms. That being the case, we shouldn’t expect anything particularly newsworthy coming out of the meetings this season. Nevertheless, this week is likely to be the most critical week of the Twins offseason.

This week, the Twins brass are likely to discuss every player in their organization and examine their relative depth at every position on the field, not to mention in the coaching ranks. The strategy they come away with will plot Terry Ryan’s offseason course and determine the fate of the Twins in 2013 and beyond. I can’t recall a season in which those meetings were more important than this year.

Politics

Shortly after MLB’s World Series wraps up this fall, voters in our country will be heading to the polls to elect a President, not to mention any number of other national, state and local officeholders. As a person with a political-science degree and having run (alas, unsuccessfully) for political office myself, I have more than a passing interest in this stuff.

I did watch the first Presidential debate, but simply could not pull myself from Thursday night’s O’s/Yankees game to check in on the Vice Presidential debate… not even during commercial breaks (those were used to check in on the Tigers/A’s game). It sounds like I didn’t miss much.

I’m an undecided voter in a state that has been identified as a “battleground” state. I would love to have some reasonably strong convictions about one candidate or the other… or even about one party or the other. But I have no such convictions at this time.

I honestly feel neither candidate is likely to make things better for my country at a time when we desperately need real leadership and that makes me more than a little sad. I’m faced with choosing to vote for the leader of a party I’ve never had much affinity for or the leader of a party I’ve belonged to all my life, but which party has been hijacked by zealots, one of which, if elected, would find himself a heartbeat away from the West Wing.

It’s frustrating enough that there’s a temptation not to vote at all. I imagine I’m not alone in that department. But whenever I feel that way, I can’t help but think of all the people in our country’s history who gave so much, in some cases their very lives, to assure that we all have the right to vote. It would just feel like dishonoring those people not to vote. So, while I don’t yet know for whom I’ll vote, I will definitely vote.

Every four years, we get the opportunity to either retain or overthrow our government. I think sometimes we lose track of just how remarkable that is. God Bless America.

– JC

Ch-Ch-Ch-Changes

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I didn’t rush right out to post reactions to the Twins’ coaching changes as the information came out on Thursday, which is probably a good thing.

StarTribune beat reporter LaVelle E. Neal III was obviously wired in to the situation at Target Field and started the ball rolling by announcing that bullpen coach Rick Stelmaszek had been advised his contract was not being renewed. My immediate reaction, via Twitter, was something to the effect that blaming the Twins’ problems on Stelly was comparable to blaming the Titanic’s problems on the guy who painted the hull of the ship. Based on what I read of others’ comments, I wasn’t the only fan who felt that way.

But, as we now know, the Twins gave more of the coaching staff similar messages. Jerry White and Steve Liddle were also not renewed while Scott Ullger and Joe Vavra were assigned instructional duties. Only Rick Anderson survived the purge and Andy got just a one-year reprieve. Of course, Ron Gardenhire himself has one more year on his contract and he’s being allowed to continue in his role, at least for now.

While the media was initially assuming (or at least speculating) that Ullger and Vavra would remain on the Major League staff, both coaches were listed as minor league instructors on the Twins’ official website. Their situations have been clarified apparently and both will remain with the Major League club, which disappoints me a bit. I don’t necessarily think Vavra has done a bad job as the Twins’ hitting coach, but how easy will it be for a new coach to establish himself with the hitters with Vavra still in the clubhouse?

What this all means is that the Twins have three open coaching positions to fill in their Major League dugout and while the Twins haven’t announced who would be filling those positions, it’s pretty clear who will be making the decisions. While most MLB managers are given a great deal of latitude in terms of assembling their own coaching staffs, clearly Gardenhire is not the primary decision maker this time around. He was on record recently as saying he wanted to keep all of his coaches, but General Manager (without the “interim”) Terry Ryan pretty much put an abrupt end to that possibility.

Instead, Gardenhire and Anderson will have three new faces surrounding them next season and two of those new faces are likely to be Gene Glynn and Bobby Cuellar, who are very definitely potential replacements for Gardy and Andy should the team’s performance once again fall below expectations in 2013.

Will these two be seeing more of one another in 2013? (photo: Jim Crikket)

The purge also could make room on the Major League staff for former Twins star Tom Brunansky. Bruno was hired to coach hitting for the Twins Gulf Coast League rookie team in July of 2010. A year later, he was the hitting coach at AA New Britain and this past season he moved up to AAA Rochester. His coaching abilities have not gone unnoticed, obviously, and apparently they’ve been noticed beyond just the Twins organization. Speculation has been that if the Twins don’t find a way to promote him, other organizations will and the Twins are likely lose him.

Ryan has indicated a desire to add a Spanish-speaking coach to their Big League staff since a number of MLB-ready players do not speak much English. That might bode well for Cuellar’s chances, but one has to wonder just how much help he’d be with communication issues during ballgames from his perch in the bullpen. Personally, I’d like to see AA hitting coach Rudy Hernandez considered for one of the openings. I’ve heard that players coming through New Britain speak very highly of Hernandez. Promoting him to the Twins would allow them to give Brunansky an opportunity to actually manage a year in the minor leagues, which might not be a terrible idea.

I’ve heard a lot of comments about how it isn’t fair that the “lesser coaches” got the boot while Gardenhire, Anderson and even Ullger and Vavra (since they’ll still be with the Twins) survived. Frankly, that’s true. It isn’t fair. But this isn’t about “fair.”

Baseball coaches at the professional level all know that their jobs are only as safe as the team’s performance on the field. They work under relatively short term contracts and they all know those contracts are subject to not being renewed for any reason. In this case, the primary reason Stelly, White and Liddle didn’t have their contracts renewed was more about Terry Ryan’s desire to bring a new group of coaches in to the clubhouse than any real or perceived performance issues on those coaches’ parts. I think it’s safe to say Jerry White didn’t cost the Twins too many games this season. Ryan needed to create three vacancies to create room for his guys, pure and simple.

I’m fine with these moves, both with the coaching changes and with retaining Gardenhire and Anderson, for now. But my being fine with them is conditioned on these moves not being the last bold moves Ryan makes this offseason. In fact, if March rolls around and the coaching changes are considered to be even close to the biggest moves he’s made, I’ll be well beyond just very disappointed.

Mr. Ryan, you have gotten our attention. Now show us what you do for an encore… and it had better be good.

– JC

Looking Back… and Ahead

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I have a poor memory.  I have trouble remembering names and all sorts of other things. I need to be reminded of appointments and family events I’m supposed to show up at. This may well be indicative of some pretty unpleasant final years of my life, but for right now I’m trying to look at the positive side to having a bad memory.

For example, I can tell you I don’t remember predicting before the season started that the Twins would come through with an 86-76 record for 2012.

I can tell you I sure as hell don’t remember predicting Francisco Liriano would be the Twins “pitcher of the year,” before the season got underway or that Liam Hendriks was likely to be the team’s “rookie of the year.”

The problem is that Eric went and made all of those predictions public back in April, so there’s a record of my preseason bout of insanity. Then again, maybe he just made that stuff up?

Scott Diamond

The reality is that the Twins pitcher of the year was probably Glen Perkins and when your best pitcher is a member of your bullpen, that’s probably not good. I suppose Scott Diamond should get some consideration for this award, as well, however. He certainly was the lone bright spot in the rotation (though I suspect he just seems brighter because of how totally dull the rest of the rotation was, by comparison).

Eric and I both apparently thought Justin Morneau was poised for a huge rebound season and predicted he would be the team’s hitter of the year. Justin certainly bounced back well, but Josh Willingham had a huge season and Joe Mauer is once again leading the league in on-base percentage and fighting for the batting title. Either of those two would be legitimate choices for the Twins hitter of the year, but I’d go with Willingham.

I predicted Denard Span would be the team’s defender of the year and I could make a pretty good case for that having turned out to be accurate. But Ben Revere would probably get my vote at this point.

I’m a bit fuzzy on who’s eligible to be considered a rookie and who isn’t, but assuming they’re both eligible, my choices would be Revere and Trevor Plouffe, in that order.

Morneau didn’t turn out to be a bad choice for Twins comeback player of the year, but I’d probably vote for Mauer.

Twins MVP would come down to Willingham and Mauer, but I’d probably go with Mauer because he contributed so much more than Willingham defensively. Then again, does anyone really want to be considered the most valuable player on a 90+ loss team?

I did get one prediction right. I said up front that the Tigers had to be the favorites to win the AL Central Division, but that their defense was going to be bad enough that they’d struggle more than a lot of experts were predicting. I did not, however, expect the White Sox to be the team that challenged them. It does appear that I was slightly overly optimistic about the Twins doing the challenging. (OK, more than slightly.)

But enough about the past, let’s look ahead a bit.

The big question being tossed around these days seems to be whether the Twins will (or should) blow up the roster and rebuild with an eye toward competing in 2016 and beyond or try to improve enough to get competitive again as early as next year.

It’s a fair question. But there’s only one realistic answer.

In a fantasy world where revenue streams are secondary to strategy, you could make an argument that the Twins should blow off the next couple of years and plan for the days when some of their current Class A and AA prospects are arriving at Target Field. But this is the real world and the Twins are a real business.

If they trade away Willingham, Span, Morneau and anyone else with any value who might not be expected to be around in 2016, attendance over the next couple of years will continue to drop even more dramatically, right along with television ratings. That means lower revenues. That means lower payrolls.

Granted, those prospects we’re counting on will be playing for the league minimum for a while, but even by 2016, this team will still be paying $23 million a year to Joe Mauer through the 2018 season. The bottom line is that, regardless of how good prospects look in the Eastern League, Florida State League and Midwest League, the odds are that more than half of them will never become above average MLB ballplayers. That means that blowing the team up now is just as likely to result in bad teams in 2016 and beyond as it is championship caliber teams. Taking that risk might be gutsy to some, but to me it would just be stupid.

Terry Ryan

Building from within with young players is necessary. But it’s not necessary to do so exclusively. Terry Ryan has told media and fans that he and his front office simply need to do better. They need to scout better. They need to trade better. They need to do better at finding the right free agents. He may not have come right out and said it, but he’s certainly hinted that the front office needs to take a very close look at the coaching and training staffs throughout the organization and make better decisions concerning those positions, as well.

Ryan is right. The Twins can’t be satisfied with two or three more seasons of bad baseball while they wait for their top prospects to be ready for prime time. They need to spend the next couple of years improving every. single. year. They need to reinstitute an expectation of competitiveness among their fan base AND in their clubhouse. They obviously need to start that search with their rotation, but whether by trade or free agency, they do need to improve the product on the field immediately.

That may not be the popular approach with some fans, but it is the right approach.

– JC

Minor Leagues: Affiliation Questions and Answers

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Over the past month or more, I’ve alluded a few times to the fact that the Twins’ Player Development Contracts (PDC) with a number of their minor league affiliates were set to expire after the current season. In fact, all four of their PDCs with their “full-season” affiliates (A, Advanced A, AA and AAA) were expiring.

Nobody really expects their Advanced A team, the Ft. Myers Miracle, to shop around for a new affiliation, given that the team calls the Twins’ Spring Training facility its home. While there was plenty of doubt in the air about the Twins’ relationship with their AA affiliate in New Britain CT, the two parties announced a two-year extension to their working agreement recently. That leaves their AAA team in Rochester NY and their Class A team in Beloit WI still up in the air.

I’ve wondered enough about this issue that it caused me to ask a few questions of people who are more familiar than I was with how the affiliation process works. (It didn’t take much searching to find people who knew more than I did.) Between asking some questions and a little bit of online investigation, I found a few answers that I thought I would share here.

Q:           Why don’t the Twins have a AAA affiliate closer to Minnesota?

A:            The two AAA leagues are primarily eastern (International League) and western (Pacific Coast League) groupings with relatively few locations in the Midwest. Those that are nearby either already have strong, long time relationships with other Midwest MLB teams (Des Moines with the Cubs and Omaha with the Royals) or their PDC is not expiring (Indianapolis with the Pirates) until 2014.

Q:           So why would the Twins want out of Rochester?

A:            They probably don’t. Most of what’s being written about this relationship indicates that it’s Rochester that may want to explore other options. The Twins have fielded pretty bad teams there the past couple of years and attendance has dropped off significantly. However, the Red Wings are on a roll at the moment and are on the fringes of a Wild Card spot, so the question is whether it’s too little, too late, to salvage the relationship.

Q:           Beloit is pretty close to the Twin Cities and they’ve had some decent teams there, so why change that affiliation?

A:            The primary reasons for even considering a switch involve the facilities in Beloit. Pohlman Field may be considered quaint or even a nostalgic throwback to the days of town team or low minor league baseball by some. But to those who deal with the business side of baseball, the facilities in Beloit, from the clubhouses to the training facilities to the seating areas to the field itself, are simply not up to modern standards for full-season minor league baseball. Ten other MWL communities still have not come to extension agreements with their existing MLB partners, so it should come as no surprise that the Twins are in no hurry to ink an extension with Beloit.

Q:           Why won’t teams like the Twins or their current affiliates just come out and say, “we’re interested in looking in to another affiliation”?

A:            Existing PDCs do not expire until September 30 and any public comments before then could be (and most likely would be) considered “tampering” with existing contractual relationships, subjecting teams to six figure fines. Teams in existing relationships can renew those deals for an additional two or four year period at any time, but no discussions with or about potential new partners can take place before certain dates specified in MLB Rule 56.

Q:           When will the Twins decide who their affiliates will be next season?

A:            Any time between the end of the season (both Rochester and Beloit regular seasons end September 3) and September 11, teams can notify either the MLB Commissioner or the MiLB President (and ONLY those people… they can’t publicly state that they’ve provided such notice) that they do not wish to renew their existing agreement. If the Commissioner approves the termination notices*, he notifies the parties involved by September 15. Only once a team gets a termination approval notice from the Commissioner can it begin negotiations with other potential affiliation partners. That means everyone needs to find a new partner between September 16th and the 30th. Those teams who don’t come to an agreement on their own in that period of time will have their affiliations assigned by the Commissioner by October 7.

*Yes, Bud Selig can employ his “best interests of baseball” powers to disallow termination requests. If Bud decides, for example, that the Twins remaining affiliated with Beloit is what is in the best interests of baseball, he can turn down the Twins’ request to terminate that PDC and require that it be extended two more years. Would he do so? It would be wrong, but he’s from Wisconsin, after all, and it certainly wouldn’t be the first thing he’s done wrong as Commissioner.

Q:           Why don’t the Twins just offer to help Beloit remodel their stadium or even help with the costs of building a new one?

A:            I think the only way the Twins could do that would be to actually purchase the Beloit Baseball Club from the current owner (which, I believe, is the community itself). A few MLB teams do own minor league affiliates (in fact, I think the Twins own their Elizabethton rookie league team), but this is still relatively rare.

In this situation, the MLB Rule applicable to PDCs prohibits MLB teams from promising benefits beyond that of a standard PDC contract. That being the case, it would seem that MLB teams would not be permitted to offer inducements, nor could MiLB clubs ask MLB teams to contribute funding beyond what’s allowed in a standard PDC (travel costs, salaries and benefits for players, coaches, instructional staff and trainers, for example).

Q:           Why don’t the Twins affiliate with the St. Paul Saints for their Class A team?

A:            During the off-season, I heard some chatter suggesting the Twins should partner with the St. Paul Saints in their effort to get a new stadium built in St. Paul and then make the Saints their Class A affiliate. Not that the Twins ever expressed interest in such an arrangement publicly, but the same rule mentioned above would apparently preclude the Twins from funding the Saints’ new stadium and making St. Paul an affiliate unless the Twins actually purchased ownership of the team.

There are also minimum boundary requirements in the rules that preclude a MiLB team from playing too close to a MLB team’s home territory (which would certainly apply to St. Paul). There appears to be some wiggle room there if the MLB team agrees, which they certainly could do if they’re the affiliate of that team. But there are other obstacles. For example, MiLB teams must provide an off day for players any time they travel more than 500 miles for a road series, unless they fly the team to that location (which you just don’t do at Class A). St. Paul is so far outside the current MWL footprint that this would make scheduling extremely difficult. MLB teams get off days regularly… MiLB players get very, very few.

Finally, even if those issues could be addressed, the Twins don’t get to decide which communities get affiliated MiLB teams (the Saints are currently an Independent team, meaning they are not part of the “affiliated” MiLB system). Unless a current MiLB franchise can no longer operate financially in a manner that it can meet the terms of their PDC and other rules, existing teams appear to be guaranteed a PDC. So, for example, unless Beloit can’t meet its obligations, in terms of providing the minimum facilities required, pay for travel or other expenses that they’re responsible for, or they decide to sell their franchise, they will likely have a PDC with someone next season. Even if they’re sold, it appears the new owners would have to give 18 months notice prior to relocating.

In other words, the Saints will probably be remaining independent for the foreseeable future and Beloit will continue to have a MWL team for at least one more season and likely longer.

Q:           When will we know who the Twins’ affiliates will be in 2013?

A:            If the Twins are going to switch affiliations, we may not hear anything official until October. However, if we haven’t heard about a renewal of an existing PDC by September 1, it’s probably safe to assume there’s going to be a change in affiliations at that Class. If either the Twins or their existing affiliates elect to “go in to the pool” and explore new options, they will get a list of potential locations available for new affiliations on September 15. That would not preclude teams from also negotiating with their existing affiliates during the late September negotiating period, but renewals at that point are rather rare.

Q:           If the Twins don’t renew their PDCs with Rochester and/or Beloit, who are they likely to affiliate with?

A:            I’m admittedly biased, but the truth is Cedar Rapids would be a very good fit as the Twins’ Class A affiliate and, trust me, I’m not the only person who feels that way. CR is the closest MWL city to the Twin Cities geographically and an affiliation would benefit both organizations. CR would get an affiliation with a nearby MLB team that has a significant existing local fan base and the Twins would get an opportunity to get a stronger foothold in Eastern Iowa, where neither their TV nor radio rights holders are currently carried. If that dynamic can be changed, it could have a positive effect on future Twins media rights fees.

Cedar Rapids’ stadium is 11 years old and provides relatively modern facilities for players and field management. In addition, I was told once that Kernels players may also have access to the Perfect Game facilities across the street from the ballpark. However, CR has been affiliated with the Angels for 20 years and the Angels would like to renew, so there’s still a chance they announce a renewal before September 1. If that happens, Clinton IA (currently a Mariners affiliate) might be another option for the Twins.

AAA is a cloudier situation. Earlier in the year, the prevailing theory seemed to be that the Blue Jays (who desperately want out of Las Vegas) would affiliate with Buffalo. The Mets, who currently are in Buffalo, would partner up with Rochester and leave the Twins to find a new AAA home. That still could happen or, if Buffalo and the Mets renew, the Jays could simply move to Rochester.

Because so few International League PDCs are up for renewal (none of the IL South or West division teams’ PDCs are expiring), a renewal with Rochester is likely the only chance the Twins have of staying in that league.

The three locations I hear most often discussed for a possible Twins move are Oklahoma City, Nashville and Las Vegas. OKC is currently an Astros affiliate and Nashville is tied to the Brewers. If those teams don’t announce a renewal before September, they might be landing spots for the Twins. Otherwise, the Twins could be “assigned” to Las Vegas.

The sad fact is, with the poor AAA teams the Twins have fielded lately, they won’t have affiliates in line begging to partner up.

I think I’ve finally run out of things to say on this subject, at least until there’s something more “official” coming out of one of the affected communities. If you have any related questions, just leave them in the comment section and I’ll try to find answers.

– JC

A New Old Reason For Disappointment

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I’m not one to usually say, “I told you so,” but… yeah… I did tell you so. I told you to prepare to be disappointed at the trade deadline so it comes as no surprise to me that most Twins fans seemed to come away from the July 31 non-waiver deadline disappointed in the lack of moves by the Twins.

Many of us do understand why the roster remained intact, except for the trade of Francisco Liriano. The new CBA dampened enthusiasm for players who will be free agents at the end of the season. Justin Morneau’s contract is too big to get other teams excited about trading something of value for him. Other teams are understandably hoarding their top “high ceiling” young starting pitchers and weren’t willing to part with them for any of the Twins players Terry Ryan had to offer. Logically, we know there will remain interest in those same players this off-season.

But even knowing and understanding all of that, there’s disappointment all over Twinsville. I’m disappointed in the aftermath of the deadline, too. But not necessarily for the same reasons others are.

Terry Ryan

Some people are disappointed that Ryan didn’t just take the best offer on the table for a player like Denard Span, for whom the Twins arguably have a suitable replacement for already in Ben Revere. Some felt Josh Willingham, who at age 33 is having the best year of his career, will never be more valuable than he is now and should have been traded for the best deal offered, simply for that reason. I don’t happen to agree with either of these positions, so I’m not disappointed that Span and Willingham are still Twins. In fact, when the deadline passed Tuesday with no deals by the Twins, I wasn’t really disappointed at all.

No, my disappointment came a little later.

Phil Mackey of 1500ESPN posted a couple articles with quotes from Terry Ryan in the aftermath of Tuesday’s trade deadline and it was Ryan’s comments, taken all together, that provide the groundwork for my disappointment.

“There’s a lot of players on this ballclub that people would like to have on their team. I don’t think there’s any question about that. I don’t think there’s any shock that people putting up the numbers on this ballclub would be desirable for other organizations. If you’re going to do something with that you’d like to think that you’re getting equity back. We didn’t see it.”

“Everything that we do here right now probably includes some sort of pitching. In particular, starting pitching. I think we’ve shown some resiliency in that bullpen out there.

“It is difficult to come out with starting pitching, especially the younger controllable-type guys that organizations covet, where they have control. That’s exactly the types of people we were looking to bring back in any sort of deal, and we just couldn’t get what we were looking for today.”

“We have holes. And some of it is pitching. And some of it is not. There are other areas we need to address.”

“Some of it will be injury. Some of it would be chemistry and some of it is execution. We’ve cracked in a few areas this year.”

So much there to digest, isn’t there? Yet, I can’t see anything there I disagree with at all. There certainly was no shortage of players other teams were interested in having.

It’s also good to see the Twins recognize their biggest problem, whether short term or long term, is their rotation. They needed good young high-ceiling pitchers in any deal and apparently didn’t get that kind of talent offered.

Ryan is also correct in saying that pitching is not the only hole they have to fill. The middle infield remains less productive than you would like it to be, for example. They certainly have “cracked” in more than one area over the course of the season.

But then there were these additional quotes.

“As you know, I don’t worry too much about the payroll. We had all kinds of money this year and we didn’t get it done. It’s not a payroll issue. It’s personnel and making sure we put the right people in the right place.”

“I’m not banking on free agency, to be honest. If you keep banking on free agency, you’ll end up chasing your tail. This is not going to be a free agency approach. This is going to be no shortcuts and doing the job the way it’s supposed to be done. And that’s usually that’s with young, development, scouting and picking the right people.”

Sigh.

If he had just said, “It’s not just a payroll issue,” and, “I’m not banking strictly on free agency,” I’d have felt a little better because I do agree that you can’t, “keep banking on free agency.”

But he didn’t.

So, taking his words exactly as quoted, we all have to be disappointed, because Terry Ryan is just wrong. It is partially about payroll and free agency is a perfectly legitimate “shortcut” to fielding a better baseball team than you currently have. Shortcuts are not necessarily mutually exclusive from, “doing the job the way it’s supposed to be done.”

Have you ever been to San Francisco and decided to take a little day trip across the bay to Sausalito? It’s not very far away and there are multiple ways to get there. The most direct route is by boat, but of course that costs you some cash. If you have the cash, I think it’s the best option. If you are on a budget, you can drive across the Golden Gate Bridge. Then again, that’s a toll bridge, so even traveling that way comes with a cost, too.

Both are shortcuts, though, because you do have another option. You can travel east a ways then north a longer ways, then west a ways, then south a ways and get to Sausalito that way. Not many people do that, because people recognize their time has value, too, and it takes a lot of extra time to get where you want to go that way (and if you’re directionally challenged, you may take a wrong turn and never get exactly where you wanted to go).

There was a time, during Terry Ryan’s first tour of duty as GM, when the Twins had no alternative to taking the long way toward building a competitive team. They simply couldn’t afford the free agency shortcut. They had no choice but to flip veteran players for prospects as soon as they got expensive and then develop those prospects and hope they turned in to good Big Leaguers. They had moderate success doing that, too.

But they don’t have to do that now. Not exclusively, anyway. Is developing from within still the best way to fill out most of your roster? Abso-friggin-lutely, it is. But utilizing free agency to augment that process… to fill those “holes” Ryan referred to… in order to maintain a level of competitiveness, is not wrong just because it’s an option you didn’t have five years ago. I would have hoped that their experience with Josh Willingham would have demonstrated that to the Twins front office.

If the Twins had traded off most of their veterans Tuesday, I’d have been disappointed. I’m in the group of fans that believes the line up is capable of competing within their division in 2013 if they fix the rotation. That said, if they’d gone the route of trading off the veterans, I’d have at least understood that Terry Ryan has a plan and I’m just going to have to be more patient to see how it unfolds. But he didn’t do that.

The result is that he seems to be caught in between… not embracing the new “shortcut” available to him to get the team back on track quicker through free agency, but also not fully executing the old “flip veterans for top prospects” method of building a competitive team over a longer period of time, either.

This is not what Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau signed up for (Photo: AP/Tom Olmscheid)

It’s that purgatory in between that appears to indicate a lack of any real plan that disappoints me more than anything else today. Then again, it’s the same disappointment I felt last year when the Twins made no attempt to improve their rotation through free agency, so this isn’t exactly new disappointment.

I would think it would have to be disappointing Joe Mauer and the other veteran players, as well. These guys are here because they felt they would have a legitimate chance to play for a winner in Minnesota and it’s hard to see how that will happen for anyone who’s already approaching or past his 30th birthday if the Twins are unwilling to tap the free agent market for serious rotation help.

If the “free agency approach” is not an option, it seems to me that the right thing for Terry Ryan to do would be to call those guys together… Mauer, Morneau, Span, Willingham, Doumit, Perkins… and say, “Guys, here’s the plan. We’re not going to spend money for top free agent pitching, so we’re probably going to continue to struggle with the rotation. That means we’re probably going to have to win a lot of 8-7 games to even come close to being a .500 team for the next couple of years. That’s not what any of you signed up for. We’d like to give our fans some familiar faces to root for and our young pitchers some semblance of offensive support, so unless we get bowled over by an offer, we’d like to keep most of you around. But if you would prefer, we will see what we can get for you on the trade market this off-season. We won’t give anyone away for a handful of magic beans, but if we can get legitimate prospects in return, we’ll try to give you a better shot to play for a contender. Talk to your agents and have them give me a call. Either way, thank you for what you’ve given the organization already and no hard feelings.”

When he’s done with that chat and after he hears back from their agents, he could communicate something similar to the fan base. Would there be disappointment? Yes. But the honesty would be refreshing, everyone would know what to expect and at least there would be some rational hope for the future.

As it is now, all we’ve got is the disappointment, even if we can’t all agree on why we’re disappointed.

– JC

P.S. To be fair, Jim Pohlad sounded at least slightly more positive about the Twins participation in the free agent market in this Pioneer Press article. The money quote:

“We will definitely look at the free-agent market,” Pohlad said Tuesday, July 31. “We probably won’t sign the most expensive free-agent pitcher that there is. Terry (Ryan, general manager) is committed to doing everything (to improve the team).”

Pohlad said the Twins, who are 12 games behind the first-place Chicago White Sox, will be able to afford some free agents. The Twins’ payroll this season is about $100 million.

“We’re happy at the level (of payroll) we’re at right now,” the Twins CEO said.

Things Ben Revere is Unlikely to Do

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Photo credit: Jim Crikket

Yesterday, during the Twins’ Spring Training loss to the Red Sox at JetBlue Park, Ben Revere threw out a runner at the plate from left field.  Well, kind of.  Jacoby Ellsbury tripled and the ball bounced away from Valencia at third into shallow left field.  Ellsbury, thinking the ball had skipped into an area void of defenders, took off for home.  Revere, racing in from left, scooped up the ball and threw a rocket to home plate, catching Ellsbury by three or four steps.  If you’re scoring at home, that’s an outfield assist.

While Spring Training stats do not count, Revere throwing a runner out, from anywhere, is a note worthy occurrence, given his weak throwing arm and previous performance (3 assists in 2011, and none of those, as far as I can remember, involved throwing a runner out at home plate).

With that in mind, here is a list of things Ben Revere is unlikely to do in 2012:

1. Throw out a Runner at Home Plate. As mentioned above, Revere’s arm is weak (4/100 per Fangraphs), and if he is not playing every day, his chances of even being in the right situation are limited, at best.

2. Hit a home run.  While Revere has shown that he can occasionally hit a home run (or 2), he has never hit a home run in the Major Leagues, and has just 5 home runs in his entire Minor League Career (with a career high of 2 at Single-A Fort Myers).  While Revere might eventually hit a ball over the outfield fence, his speed could allow him to stretch a triple into an inside-the-park home run, thus ending his HR drought.  However, Revere only hit 5 triples in 2011, despite his speed, and might not have enough at bats to even match that total in 2012.

3. Have an on base percentage above .335.  While he will never hit for power, Revere’s Minor League numbers indicate that he has great on base skills, posting a career .385 OPB, though he has never played a full season at AAA.  Revere’s biggest asset is his speed, and as a 4th outfielder, he will have plenty of opportunities to showcase his defensive tools, but for the team to put that speed to use offensively Revere will need to get to first base.  If he is not playing regularly, Revere may struggle to find a rhythm, having never been used consistently as a reserve.  While Revere posted a .310 OBP in 2011, that number was helped significantly by a late season push that saw Revere hit .311/.342/.368 in September and October.  If Revere wants to be the Twins’ leadoff hitter and centerfielder of the future, he’ll need to come close to Denard Span‘s career OBP of .361.

4. Says something interesting on Twitter. While Ben Revere (@BenRevere9) has almost 3 times as many Twitter followers as  fellow Minnesota Twin, Glen Perkins (@Glen_Perkins), he rarely, if ever, says anything noteworthy.  The most exciting thing he’s tweeted in the past 30 days is this.  Really, Ben Revere?  Trading in the Statue of Liberty for Tim Tebow Tebowing?  Meanwhile, Glen Perkins has not only spent Spring Training on a quest to hold and photograph himself holding sharks, he also interacts with fans and other Twitter users on a regular basis.  Definitely worth a follow.

What else might Ben Revere not do in 2012?  Steal 40 bases?  Run a marathon? Eat 50 In and Out burgers?  Who knows!

–ERolfPleiss

Ebay and the Minnesota Twins

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Photo credit: http://www.baseball-almanac.com

I really enjoy collecting random, mostly worthless, Minnesota Twins memorabilia.  My 1989 Kirby Puckett bottle cap coin might be the best example of this.  These types of coins are usually sold for $1 on Ebay, and even then, they’re over priced by the time you have paid for shipping.  Still, I could not help but buying up a handful of them and adding them to the growing pile of Twins junk collecting dust in the corner of my bedroom.

My favorite method for acquiring these items is Ebay.  I usually search for “Minnesota Twins” and then sort by items ending soonest.  If I can bid on something that is ending in less than a minute, and pay less than $3, including shipping, I have no problem pulling the trigger.  Several weeks ago I was browsing the quickly expiring Minnesota Twins auctions and I came across a pair of game used pants worn by former Twins player and coach, Rick Renick.  The pants eventually sold outside of my modest price range, but ever since then I have been drawn towards the odd and outrageous Minnesota Twins items on Ebay.  What are the weirdest Twins things on Ebay, and do you need to own them?

To help you make that decision, here are my 10 favorite Minnesota Twins auction listings:

10. Do you have $3,595 extra dollars laying around?  Are you in love with the 1987 World Championship team?  How about buying a 1987 Minnesota Twins World Series trophy?! The item description makes no substantial claim of authenticity, and there is no indication who owned this trophy at the time of the championship (though the author would like you to think it might have been Kirby Puckett’s judging from the auction listing) Enjoy this  “authentic “World Series trophy, it will definitely tie your memorabilia collection together.

9. For only $7.99 this autographed Boof Bonser photograph from 2007 could be yours.  Imagine how jealous your friends will be when they see this 8×10 beauty hanging on the wall of that old fish house that’s been sitting in your back yard for the past 10 years.  Buy this photo if you love awkward stares from number 4 starters.  Don’t buy this photo if you have a jealous lover, because when you love Boof, you cannot love another.

8. Remember when Francisco Liriano was terrible in 2011?  How would you like to own a piece of that miserable history with a Game Worn Jersey!!!  For just a tick under $400 (plus $12.99 shipping) you could own an official game used jersey, that the seller describes and probably maybe kinda sorta game used (at least it has been well worn).  If you have $412.98, and you have not yet bought this, you have the will power of Superman.

7. You might buy this next item if you are Delmon Young‘s biggest fan, and you love autographed rookie cards.  I can’t figure out if the seller is selling just a single card, or a set of four cards, with two that are nearly identical.  Either way, this lot will cost you $375.  Too pricey for me, but certainly not for an eccentric billionaire who hates defense, effort, and tiny lips.  Continue reading Ebay and the Minnesota Twins→

Reasons for Hope

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I’m not an idiot (most of the time). I know the Detroit Tigers are consensus favorites to win the AL Central Division title again… probably by double digit games again. I know the Twins are not widely viewed as the most likely team to challenge the Tigers if such a challenger does emerge.

But as I mentioned a few days ago, Spring Training is my Mardi Gras! I’ll deal with reality on Opening Day. For now, I’m going to enjoy the simple fact that baseball is being played a few miles south of where I live (OK, a few hundred miles, but who’s counting?). I’m not going to get dragged in to the negativism that others seem hell-bent on maintaining. I’m not judging them… I’ll even appear on their podcasts occasionally… it’s just not what I want to be feeling this time of year.

I want to find reasons for hope and if some so-called “serious fans” think that’s a bad thing, for whatever reason, I can live with that.

With that in mind, I went looking for reasons for hope this week and I found a few. No, they aren’t reasons to be confident (if you find some of those, send them my way please!), but I don’t need confidence right now… a little hope, however realistic or unrealistic it may be, is all I need.

I found some hope, too. In fact, Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated (si.com, to be precise) gave me a handful of things to grasp on to. Some of them even reinforced opinions I already held, which is always convenient. Here are a few things Verducci brought up (click here for the link) that a Twins fan can grasp on to if she/he feels so inclined:

  • In 16 of the past 17 seasons (and for 6 straight seasons running), at least one team has made the postseason after having a losing record the year before. In fact, both the D’Backs and Brewers did so last season, making for 33 teams in those 17 years that have accomplished the “losers to postseason” turnaround.
  • Having an All-Star rotation is not what gets you to the playoffs. Having a HEALTHY rotation is what gets you to the playoffs. Forget about whether Mauer, Morneau and Span are healthy (good luck ignoring that), it’s all about having at least four of the Twins starters (Pavano, Liriano, Baker, Marquis and Blackburn) getting 30 starts. In the past four years, 11 teams have had four starters get 30 starts and 10 of those teams made the playoffs. Six of them ended up in the World Series. I’ve believed for a long time that the rotation is as important as (if not more important than) pretty much any other factor in getting things turned around. I just didn’t know how right I was.
  • Here’s a big one to remember… especially for those of us who are disappointed in the roster, as built by Terry Ryan during the offseason… contenders CAN be built during the season. The guys making up the 25 man roster at the beginning of the season matter less than the guys who END the season on the roster. Of the 24 players who saw action for the Cardinals in the World Series last year, five of them were not members of their organization on Opening Day.

See? Verducci came through for me! I’m not sure I really need more, but I have more anyway.

We’ve already discussed Jim Leyland’s intention to hand other AL Central managers a gift by having Miguel Cabrera play 3B regularly, but now he also likes the idea of Brandon Inge playing 2B. Despite feeling like Inge has destroyed the Twins all by himself at times over the years, I like that idea, too. Though I suspect I like it for much different reasons than Leyland.

There were a few people who lamented the fact that the Indians were able to sign Jon Garland for next to nothing, supposedly further entrenching themselves as the second-favorite AL Central team among the “experts.” Well, forget that. Garland’s deal was canceled this week when he admitted he was not healthy enough to pitch. I’m still waiting to read all the stories about how it turned out to be OK that Terry Ryan didn’t go out and sign Garland. I suspect the wait will be a long one.

But enough about other teams. Here’s something tangible for a Twins fan like me to grasp on to concerning the Twins themselves: As position players begin their workouts, the entire “injury list” consists of Luke Hughes and his strained shoulder and Brian Dozier with a cut on his finger. Yes, I know we’ll all hold our breath a bit until Justin Morneau demonstrates all is well with his head (and all those other body parts he had rebuilt over the past several months). But Gardy had so many guys sitting out practices and games all through Spring Training last year that I felt inclined to take my glove with me to the Ft. Myers complex while I was down there… you know, just in case the Twins manager needed an extra body.

The point is… as much as people like to say Spring Training isn’t really important for most players, it really is. Players ideally show up in much better shape than they did in the old days, but there’s “in shape” and then there’s “in game shape.” They are not necessarily the same thing. And from all appearances, the Twins are reporting much better prepared to get down to the serious business of preparing for the season this spring.

I still have to endure over four more weeks of Iowa winter before I get to head to Ft. Myers, but I’m determined to just enjoy following Spring Training through the eyes and ears of the writers and bloggers who are down there in the mean time. If that’s not the kind of thing you’re wanting to read about, I’m sorry for disappointing you… but not very. 🙂

– JC

 

Lindsay’s Headed to Arizona!

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Congratulations to Lindsay Guentzel!!!

Thanks to all you fans for doing your part and voting her in! Of course, I’m sure she’d rather be going to Spring Training in Ft. Myers but still.. it’s baseball in the spring and baseball fans are baseball fans. I think it’s a good bet that she’ll have a fantastic time.

Here’s the announcement from MLB:

The voting period for MLB Fan Cave 2012 has closed. After closely monitoring the campaign efforts of all 50 finalists that have garnered more than one million votes, we have narrowed down the field to 30. You can watch the video submissions of the remaining finalists below. These 30 fans will travel to Spring Training in Arizona next week (Feb. 28-March 1) for the final step in their quest to be a 2012 MLB Fan Cave contestant. 

I have NO idea what they will have to do next as they continue to narrow the field… Here’s to hoping that Lindsay is able to hold her ground but I have full faith in her.

LAST DAY for MLB FanCave Voting!

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Two weeks ago, I told you that we needed your help to get a Twins fan, Lindsay Guentzel, into the MLB FanCave!

Well this is it folks. Today is the last day to vote. So let’s get busy and get the votes in!

1st: Go to MLB FanCave Voting and pick Lindsay’s video and vote! Do it as many times as it will let you! LOL

2nd: if you’re on twitter, go to @LindsayGuentzel & give her a follow

If you haven’t voted yet, this is your chance. if you have been voting already, thanks for your efforts!