Month: October 2010

In this final installment of the YF vs JC discussion of the Yankee/Twin ALDS series, they take an in-depth look at the two teams’ respective offensive lineups.

Let’s start with a look at the likely starting line ups for the Yankees and Twins.

Yankee Fan: There is a nice symmetry with this lineup comparison.  The scary parts are the 3-7 hitters, with the 8-9s being setups for the top of the order.  Some speed mixed with some station-to-station guys, and of course, some power through the order.

Looking at the top third of the order, for the Yankees, ideally, Jeter gets on, Swisher walks, and Tex/A-Rod clear the bases.  Problem is, Swisher has fallen in love with the long ball and savvy ground ball pitchers are his weakness.  On the other hand, I firmly believe that Jeter’s batting troubles are behind him and that non-strikeout pitchers who depend on contact are good for him.  Confident that he wont strike out, I think he’ll be comfortable spraying singles to all fields.  The most troubling component here is Tex and his tendency to wilt under pressure.  Until I see otherwise, I think he’s a buzzkill in the top third of the lineup.

For the Twins, Mauer is the key here.  I don’t foresee him leaving men in scoring position.  The man is clutch, has intangibles, and don’t forget the sideburns!  Jeter doesn’t have sideburns… If you haven’t figured it out by now, I worry about Mauer in any situation.  You have two guys who can get on base at a decent clip in Span and Hudson, and Span can go first to third in an instant.  Indeed, the threat of power from the 3-7 hitters will keep Yankee pitchers honest, and Span could have his way on the base paths.  I see that top third scoring 2+ runs per game.  So before we get to the meat of the order, I give the advantage to Minnesota.

Jim Crikket: You’ve seen the Yankees more than I have, certainly, but I’m not so sure Jeter’s hitting problems are behind him. He’s an extreme ground ball hitter and the Twins infield doesn’t let a lot of those get through. Swisher is the guy who concerns me here. I want to see Teixeira coming up with the bases empty as often as possible.

Mauer certainly has earned the respect you give him, but if Span and Hudson aren’t getting on base at a healthy clip, the damage Mauer inflicts will be suppressed considerably. Neither of those guys at the top of the order were getting on base nearly frequently enough the last month of the season. Until I see evidence that they’re going to do better, I give a slight advantage to the Yankees.

The middle of the order is where things get interesting for both teams. There’s a healthy debate among Twins fans as to whether Mauer or Young was the team’s MVP during the regular season. I don’t think there’s a wrong answer to that question but for my money, I’d go with Delmon. He can be streaky, but he has come through in the clutch time and time again. Jim Thome isn’t going to win any footraces, but he’s still as dangerous as any hitter in this series. His effectiveness is, however, likely to be more limited against the Yankees’ left handed starting pitchers. Cuddyer is not having one of his better offensive seasons, but he’s got as much power potential as the others. It would be helpful, however, if we could get a rule adopted outlawing the throwing of breaking balls to Michael. Even without the rule adjustment, I like him in the 6-spot over Posada.

On the Yankee side, as long as Gardy never… ever… lets Matt Guerrier face Alex Rodriguez again, I’ll be more concerned about Robinson Cano than Rodriguez. Rodriguez had a good post-season last year and it’s funny how now all of a sudden all those choke jobs he pulled in prior Octobers apparently never happened. As for Posada, in my opinion he no longer belongs in the middle third of a contending team’s batting order. I give the middle third to the Twins.

Yankee Fan: A-Rod and Cano are monsters right now.  If I was looking at pairs of hitters instead of trios, those two would be (by far) the best combo (only because Morneau is out).  The only issue here is Posada.  Yes, Posada will crush a mistake here and there, and sometimes even in an important spot.  That Minny is throwing some contact pitchers out there benefits Jorgie.  Alas, old grey Jorgie ain’t what he used to be, and again the Yanks have an anchor to sink this middle third of the lineup.  Because of Tex and Jorge, the offense will start then sputter.

In addition to Mauer, another Twin who scares me is Thome.  Anchoring the second third of the lineup, he acts as a second cleanup hitter of sorts.  With Mauer keeping innings going, I see Thome driving him in.  Young and Cuddyer are perfect Yankee Stadium hitters — that ballpark lends itself to some decent home runs.  The end result here is that every player scares you, and Thome might scare you the most.  He’s a savvy veteran who knows how to keep an inning alive. Advantage: NYY (A-Rod and Cano are that good).

Looking at the bottom third of the Yankee order, Thames/Berkman have their strengths.  Thames is a power threat and handles himself at the plate decently.  Berkman, like Thome, knows how to get a job done when necessary, like driving in a run from third with less than 2 outs, or hitting to the right side when the runner needs to advance from second to third.  The lineup brightens for the Yanks at the bottom — Granderson has a mix of decent hitting, power and speed.  Gardner gets on base and can run, setting up Jeter for more “intangible” and “clutch” postseason moments.  Sure, it’s a joke when McCarver (can we agree that he sucks?) raves about Jeter, but you have to admit, he’s been pretty clutch for the Yanks in the past.

Similarly to the Yankee analysis — Kubel can pound the ball, and Valencia and Hardy can set up the potent top of the order.  Granted, Danny and JJ (which I think was the name of my second favorite ’80s sitcom after Dukes of Hazzard) aren’t as big of a threat to steal bases, but they are better than your average 8-9 hitters. I give the advantage to the Yankees.

Jim Crikket: For someone who’s been looking at things in such a balanced manner, I think you finally let your Yankee bias shine through, YF. There frankly isn’t a single Yankee in the bottom third of their order that I would take over his counterpart on the Twins side. Kubel has certainly earned his drop in the order to #7, but I’d still take him over whichever DH the Yankees trot out there. Granderson hasn’t hit lefthanded pitcing since before he left the Tigers (and isn’t hitting righties particularly well either this season), and Gardner, after getting off to a decent start to his year, has not really hit well since the All Star break.

Danny Valencia is probably the best hitter of the six guys in the bottom of these orders and JJ Hardy has put up an OPS of nearly .800 over the last month of the season. A case could be made that Valencia and Hardy have been producing better than Span and Hudson.

So, YF… after all of this analysis, how do you see this series going? Another 3-game sweep for the Evil Empire?

Yankee Fan: With hitting being the deciding factor, I do think the Yankees will prevail once again.  I think the Twins can outhit the Yankees, just not over a 5 game series.  If the Yankees want to win, they need game 1, and hope to outslug the Twins in games 2-4.  Sorry, I know I am a guest to this blog, but I think the Yankees have too many good hitters against contact pitchers. Prediction: Yankees in 4.

Jim Crikket: This is not the same roll-over-and-find-a-way-to-lose Twins team the Yankees have casually discarded in years past. They have deeper pitching, a more balanced offensive line up and a defense that is at least comparable to the Yankees… and they get to begin and end (if necessary) this series in Target Field. I honestly believe the Yankees tanked on purpose to get the Wild Card and this match up with the Twins, rather than face Cliff Lee and the Rangers in a short series… and they’re going to regret having done so.  Prediction: the Twins in 5 games… and if Gardy’s boys can beat Captain Cheeseburger in Game 1, get out the brooms!

In last night’s post, Yankee Fan vs Jim Crikket discussed how the Yankees and Twins pitching staffs matched up. Today, they debate the what can be expected of each team’s defense in the upcoming Yankee/Twin ALDS.

Jim Crikket: Let’s start out with the outfields. A lot of Twins fans have complained about this year’s outfield not measuring up defensively to last season’s. But guess what… Young, Span and Kubel WERE last season’s outfield in Games 1 and 3 of the ALDS… and while some think Delmon has put back on a few of the pounds he shed last offseason, I still think he’s improved out there in left field. There’s no doubt that there’s a lot of room for bloopers to drop in between these guys, but at least the guys at the corners have arms that could keep Yankee runners from taking the extra base. Nick Swisher is no greyhound in right field for the Yankees either, but Granderson and Gardner cover plenty of ground between them. Purely defensively, the Yankee outfield has the edge.

Yankee Fan: This is turning out to be quite a boring exchange, as we keep agreeing on things.  I’ll admit to relative ignorance regarding the Twins’ outfield defense.  Then again, speed isn’t something Kubel or Young is especially known for, but Span sure can make up a lot of ground between them.  In contrast, the outfield of Gardner, Granderson and Swisher does cover a lot of ground.  The right field experience (sorry Swish) is not ideal from a defensive standpoint, but I admit it’s a lot of fun to watch (through clenched fists of course).  I think if I stick with my prediction that the ball will be in play a lot in the deciding games, I have to give an advantage to the Yankees here — the Twins’ outfield will allow a couple of extra doubles in the gap or singles that dunk in.

 

Jim Crikket: If the Yankees have to win by scratching out a couple of extra bloopers, they probably won’t even want to advance, just on principle!

It pains me to admit it, but the Yankees may very well have four future Hall of Famers in their infield (does that count as my “nice” thing to say about Jeter?), though I think you’d have to say Robinson Cano and Mark Teixeira will need to produce at current levels a few more years to make that a reality. Rodriguez still covers some ground at third base but until Jeter is moved out of the SS position, I’ll always consider that infield to be suspect defensively. The Twins infield has been significantly upgraded over last year’s playoff version defensively (Valencia, Hardy and Hudson over the trio of Tolbert, Cabrera and Punto around the horn in Game 1 of the 2009 ALDS) and while Cuddyer’s not going to make his infielders look as good as Teixeira will his, I like the Twins’ unit better than the Yankees overall.

Yankee Fan: Hey now, as a long time Yankee Fan, if the Yankees win without any “help” from the umpires I will be happy.  Finally, something we can disagree on!  I think Teixeira fields his position amazingly, and A-Rod is no slouch at third.  While Cano has generally played gold glove-caliber defense this season, his mind and focus tends to wander.  That shouldn’t be a problem in the playoffs, but that remains to be seen.  As for Jeter, I will be the first to admit his fielding has tailed off a little this year.  More than once I found myself saying “wow, he usually gets to that one” or “wait, the runner beat the throw?”  Then again, I think that the recently trendy criticism of Jeter’s defense has been mostly unwarranted.  Having watched him just about every day for the past dozen plus years, I can say the kid fielded far better than the critics would have us believe.  Overall, I think the Yankee infield is more than competent, as is the Twins’ infield.  I don’t think the difference defensively is worth discussing, even assuming lots of ground balls by the pitchers in the series.  But if I had to decide, I’d take the Yankee infield… four future hall of famers is nothing to scoff at!

I suppose the only thing left to discuss is the defensive catcher position – do we even have to discuss this?  Mauer is a game-changer.  He can hit, run, and throw out baserunners (not to mention handle a pitching staff).  The Yankee catchers can hit some, and Posada can handle most pitchers (I’m looking at you Burnett) but generally can’t run or throw out baserunners.  Herein lies a deceptive advantage for the Twins.  Depending on the way the games play out, the Mauer factor can carry much more weight than, say, “Span v. Granderson.”  In case you couldn’t tell, I think this is where the Twins win the series… if they win it.

Jim Crikket: Yeah, Joe Mauer didn’t win the batting title this year. He finished what? Third? Whatever. Jorge Posada is no slouch, even at his advanced age, but the clear advantage here goes to the Twins.  There has been a lot of discussion about the Twins starting pitching not looking real sharp for the past couple of weeks, but a lot of those games were being caught by back up catchers. It will be interesting to see if having Mauer back behind the plate has an effect on Liriano, Duensing and Blackburn in particular.

Next: Who’s bringing the lumber?

With close to 70 different Twins-related blogs floating about in the cyber-cloud and almost all of them posting an analysis of the upcoming Twins/Yankees ALDS, it’s not easy to set your blog apart from the others. But here at Knuckleballs, we’re fortunate to have a legitimate fan of the Yankees (who conveniently goes by the nick “Yankee Fan”) as a regular reader. We asked Yankee Fan if he would be willing to go head-to-head with Jim Crikket in a little pre-ALDS analysis. To our surprise, he agreed!

Here, in Part 1 of Yankee Fan vs Jim Crikket, they discuss the comparative strengths and weaknesses of the Yankees and Twins pitching. Later, they’ll give their takes on their respective teams’ gloves and hitters and provide their personal predictions concerning the utlimate outcome of this ALDS series.

JimCrikket: I would imagine that we’ll start off with something we can quickly come to an agreement on… that CC Sabathia is clearly the number 1 rotation arm in this series. Since he’s likely to pitch two of the four games (if the series goes that far), he’s arguably both the first AND second best pitcher in the series. But forgive me if I haven’t been impressed with what I’ve seen of Andy Pettitte since his return or Phil Hughes since… I dunno… June? It’s hard to predict which versions of the Jekyll/Hyde Twins starters will show up on any given day, but I think their depth is better than the Yankees. When he’s “on”, Liriano is as good as anyone in the league and Pavano has been very reliable, but I think Brian Duensing and Nick Blackburn could play key roles in determining who wins this series. Overall, I give a slight advantage to the Yankees  just because Captain Cheeseburger can be THAT good.

 Yankee Fan: CC is absolutely a great pitcher but calling him the top two pitchers in the series borders hyperbole (unless that’s a veiled reference to his weight, in which case I concede).  There’s an argument to be made that Liriano is the better pitcher (2.61 ERA, 10 K/9 vs. CC’s 3.21 ERA, 7.46 K/9 against playoff teams) and that the Yankee bats are responsible for the difference between Sabathia’s 21-7 record and Liriano’s 14-10.  At the very best, I would call it a wash on Game 1.  There will be no surprises as either pitcher can “bring it.”

As for Games 2 and 3, can someone please show me where the average Yankee fan (and Daily News’) confidence comes from?  Pettitte has been worse than Burnett since coming off the DL (seriously, 6.76 ERA!) and Hughes’ 1.63 WHIP over his last 3 starts doesn’t strike fear in my son’s little league team right now.  Then again, Pavano and Duensing haven’t been lighting it up either, so I think that Games 2-5 (if necessary) will be determined by the hitters instead of the pitchers.  Without boring you and your readers with the statistics, it would appear that beyond CC and Liriano the series will be decided by non-strikeout pitchers — that means a lot of batted balls in play.  I know that traditionally playoff games are dictated by pitching and defense, but here the hitters will determine the outcome (and the series).  Then again, don’t discount the Pavano factor — if I’ve learned one thing over the past 5 years it’s that if Carl can screw the Yanks, he will.

Jim Crikket: Wow, I’m shocked… it sounds like you’re going to make all my points for me! You want to do my job and tell me how great the Twins’ bullpen is too?

Yankee Fan: Well you started off praising CC so I guess I felt the need to reciprocate — in retrospect I may have overcompensated.  Now you have to say something nice about Derek Jeter.  As for bullpen comparison, it is my humble opinion that the Twins’ bullpen is the best in baseball.  Don’t get me wrong, I like the Yankee bullpen very much — I still think Joba can get key outs, Wood has been excellent, and despite the chatter, Mariano is still Mariano.  My biggest issue with the Yankee bullpen is that they may need 4-5 innings of relief pitching for every non-CC outing to even get to Mo.  Over a 5 game series that bullpen is bound to turn out like the Yankees’ signing of Pavano — overspent and underwhelmed.  The good news?  I think that Minny might need 4-5 innings of relief pitching as well (especially with Pavano and Duensing pitching to contact).  The bad news is I think they can handle it.  Agree?

Jim Crikket: I certainly do (but I’m going to have to give some thought about saying something nice about Jeter).

I realize it borders on heresy to suggest that Mariano Rivera is remotely human, but it sure looks like age may finally be catching up to him. I also haven’t been impressed with the rest of the Yankees bullpen, though I readily admit that I’m surprised at just how effective Kerry Wood has been. Matt Capps has been reliable and just for good measure, the Twins have two more 20-save arms in their bullpen in the persons of Brian Fuentes and Jon Rauch (assuming he’s healthy). Remarkably, none of those three is even the Twins best reliever. That would have to be Jesse Crain. Nobody wants to have to go in to the ninth inning down and try to beat Rivera, but I think the Twins overall depth gives them the advantage at this position. It sounds like we agree on that anyway.

Next: Who’s going to flash the best leather?